This week started off with a gorgeous, sunny day with above average warmth. Temperatures will remain largely at or above normal, with the exception of tomorrow as a storm system rolls through and brings us some rain. The end of the week may also see a chance for showers, but this will set the stage for us to enjoy another weekend of sunny, above average warmth.
Rest of today – increasing clouds as a storm approaches from the southwest. This increasing cloud cover should result in high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, topping out in the mid-60s. Overrunning precipitation will begin to fall late overnight in association with a warm/occluded front approaching from the south.
Wednesday – rain, with a thunderstorm possible. Mostly cloudy, and cooler with highs in the mid-50s.
Thursday – partly sunny with high temperatures warming back into the mid-60s as the storm system above exits to our northeast.
Friday – partly sunny with high temperatures again in the mid-60s. A chance for rain with a weaker storm system moving up again from our south.
This work week starts off with a serious soaking rain from a storm system that has impacted a wide swath of the southern US with multiple days of severe weather. Conditions improve tomorrow and Wednesday before another chance for rain on Thursday. The rain this morning has led to the issuance of flash flood warnings, and numerous reports of flooding have already come in, so take caution out there, especially if you’re out on the roads.
Rest of today – rain, heavy at times, with the threat for flash flooding and flooding possible as storms train and hit the same areas repeatedly. Some embedded thunderstorms have been occurring this morning, enhancing the heavy rainfall potential. Some areas could see rainfall rates of up to 1″/hr along with gusty winds in the 40-50 mph range. Temperatures will be rising into the upper-50s as a warm front approaches from the south.
Tuesday – improving conditions as the storm system responsible for today’s rain moves off. Cooler, with temperatures maxing out in the low-50s in the wake of a cold front and mostly cloudy skies.
Wednesday – the best day of this week with high temperatures in the mid-50s and mostly sunny skies.
Thursday – another storm system, albeit weaker, will impact the area. High temperatures should hover in the mid-50s with chances for rain and cloudy skies otherwise.
Despite it being Friday the 13th, if you were looking for some spring weather, this happens to be your lucky day. With our region in the warm sector of a large storm system far off to the south and west (which will bring severe weather to parts of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Missouri Valleys today), warm air will be surging from the south. This will give us a great start to the weekend, though things will shift dramatically by Sunday as a frontal boundary dances back and forth across the area. Wild temperature swings of 30ºF are possible with a much cooler day Sunday.
Rest of today – despite the cloud cover now, temperatures should still reach well into the mid-70s. Any breaks in the clouds would likely result in highs hitting 80ºF. There will also be a steady southerly breeze with gusts up to 20 mph.
Saturday – temperatures remain quite warm with highs again in the mid-70s. The warm front that swept north through the region last night, which brought the warm air along with it, will retreat south of the area as a backdoor cold front late during the day Saturday. Expect temperatures to drop rapidly after this backdoor cold front passes through – between 10-15ºF within as little as an hour. Increasing clouds will accompany this frontal passage.
Sunday – significantly cooler with easterly onshore winds in the wake of the backdoor cold front passage. This onshore flow off the still cold waters of the Atlantic will result in high temperatures only in the upper-40s. Periods of rain will also occur, especially later in the day with mostly cloudy skies otherwise.
Monday – the backdoor cold front will stall just south of us, then push back north as a warm front again. Temperatures will rise back towards around 60ºF prior to the arrival of a stronger cold front. This will be accompanied by steadier rain and even a couple rumbles of thunder are possible.
The National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of Isla de Juventud in Cuba. The formation of TD Eighteen has implications on the forecast for Sunday’s storm as a complex scenario is set to unfold.
Impacts: forecasters are anticipating a high wind, and heavy rain event coming up. Storm total rainfall of 2-4″ and possibly higher could lead to urban and small stream flooding. The amount of rainfall over a short period of time has led our local forecast office to issue flash flood watches for much of the region. Winds will pick up as well, backing from the south to southeast, east, and eventually to north and northwest. Wind gusts could become a problem for local airports and for poor travel conditions in general. Thunderstorms are a possibility as well.
Timing: Winds are already increase today, and cloud cover will do so as well as the day progresses. Chances for rain will increase in the overnight hours, probably after 2-3AM. The strongest wind gusts will actually come on the back side of the storm going into Monday as it intensifies and the pressure gradient increases.
Discussion: a complicated set up is unfolding with a longwave trough (on the left) draping from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Meixco interacting with a developing closed low over the Tennessee Valley, and TD Eighteen. TD Eighteen is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm, which would be named Phillippe if it did form. The effect of this will be to provide a conveyor of warm and moist air from the tropics up to our area. This will help feed the developing non-tropical low forming over the southeast. This low will become the primary rainmaker, and the tropical system (whether a depression or storm) will eventually merge with it. Plenty of instability to fuel a growing storm! The pressure gradient will tighten as this storm strengthens and departs eastward, and that will be the reason for a gusty start to the work week.
The warm spell we’ve enjoyed over the last week and longer will finally come to a close mid-week this week. Before that, we will receive a round of much needed moderate to heavy rain in conjunction with the approach and passage of a frontal system. Behind this front, as winds shift to the northwest, temperatures will cool into a more seasonable range for this time of year.
Rest of today – mild, partly sunny with clouds increasing, high temperatures in the low-70s.
Tuesday – we’ll still be in the warm sector ahead of an advancing cold front. Temperatures remain mild in the low-70s, however, we should expect several rounds of moderate to heavy rain during the day. As the pressure gradient increases with proximity to an advancing cold front, stiff south winds in the 20 mph range with stronger gusts could occur. Rain continues and increases in intensity overnight. Windy conditions continue. Thunderstorms are possible with some of the strongest lift and convection close to the cold front. We could pick up 2-3 inches in places by the end of this event, as this long period of southerly winds will have ushered in a tropical airmass rich with moisture.
Wednesday – the cold front doesn’t actually push through until late Wednesday. Lingering showers could occur in the morning prior to the frontal passage. High temperatures should still be fairly mild, near 70°F.
Thursday – winds will shift to the north and west following the passage of this vigorous cold front. Behind the front, temperatuers will be about 10°F cooler, resulting in high temperatures topping out in the low-60s with mostly sunny skies.
The first half of this long weekend will continue the warm summer feel we’ve had since mid-week. Some much needed rain arrives Sunday going into next week in conjunction with the anticipated remnants of Tropical Storm Nate. This does literally mean that it will rain on the Columbus Day parade.
Rest of today – mostly sunny. Warm with highs around 80°F.
Saturday – partly sunny, not a bad day though with high temperatures in the low-80s. The stationary front depicted above that’s sitting close to the city will push north of us as a warm front. This will open the door to an increasingly tropical feel with higher dew points and more moisture in the air.
Sunday – mostly cloudy. Rain chances increasing in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible. Rain that develops could be heavy with tropical moisture flowing into the area. Still warm, with temperatures in the low-80s. An advancing cold front will push up precipitation partially fueled by Tropical Storm Nate (which is anticipated to make landfall on the New Orleans/Mississippi coastal area this weekend. This precipitation will be moving in on our area well in advance of the actual core of the remnants of Nate.
Monday (Columbus Day) – rain and thunderstorms as the bulk of the remnants of Nate move into the area. Rain heavy at times. Cooler with highs dipping into the mid-70s. With Nate approaching to the southwest of us, we should see more steady rain and clouds, keeping temperatures suppressed.
Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate is expected to strengthen into a minimal hurricane after it crosses near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the Gulf of Mexico. From that point, it’s expected to accelerate towards the Gulf Coast and make landfall in the vicinity of New Orleans, the Mississippi Delta and coastal Mississippi. Even though this storm will pale in comparison to Irma and Maria, it has already claimed 20 lives in Central America due to heavy rains and flooding.
This weekend kicks off a stretch of cooler, drier, true-to-form autumn weather after last week’s decidedly summer-like days. A low pressure center over the Great Lakes will slide southeast towards the region to start the weekend. This could scattered showers and thunderstorms. Aside from that, conditions will be dry and fair for the remainder of the forecast period.
Rest of today – high temperatures right about 70°F with sunny skies, much drier feel to the day.
Saturday – scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially early. High temperatures in the upper-60s, cooler in spots that see rain.
Sunday – sunny, high temperatures again around 70°F. High pressure from Canada behind the low pressure above will keep things dry and cool for much of the next week.
Monday – slightly warmer, high temperatures in the low-70s, again mostly sunny.
The main weather headline going into the weekend is the eventual track of Tropical Storm Jose. Depending on its proximity to land, we could see some nasty effects from the storm next Tuesday or Wednesday. The weekend itself should be rather uneventful, the veritable calm before the storm.
Rest of today – warm and mostly sunny. Small chance for an isolated PM pop-up thunderstorm especially inland and west.
Saturday – more clouds but still a nice day with highs around 80°F.
Sunday – probably the best day of the weekend with mostly sunny skies and a high around 80°F again.
Monday – pleasant enough to start the week. Increasing clouds, which will end the streak of above normal weather. With Jose approaching from the south we may also see increasing onshore winds cooling things off.
Jose an Increasing Threat to the East Coast
While Texas, Florida, and parts of the Caribbean are still reeling from the impacts of major hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Jose could pose a problem for us along the East Coast. Jose has been meandering aimlessly in the western Atlantic over the last few days and has done an anti-cyclonic loop. It’s now beginning to move west-northwest and there are a few forecast models that show it making landfall along the East Coast or coming very close to it.
It shouldn’t be too surprising that the cone of uncertainty in the official National Hurricane Center’s forecast is so large at day 5 given the substantial spread that exists amongst individual members of different modeling systems. Note that there is still plenty of time for this storm to curve out to sea with primary impacts being limited to beach erosion and coastal flooding. However, if the storm comes closer to shore or makes landfall, then we’re talking about a much more substantial problem.
Critical factors for steering this storm will include the strength of a blocking ridge (area of high pressure) which you can see in the upper right of the following image, and whether Jose gets picked up by a frontal boundary and pushed east. A stronger high pressure would block Jose’s eastward progress, and the timing of the frontal boundary passing over the East Coast will be crucial.
Jose is expected to intensify somewhat back to a minimal Category 1 storm over this time. On its approach to this area, it’s possible that it might begin the process of extratropical transition, where its center becomes less defined and loses a warm core. However, this process could also infuse some energy via baroclinic forcing that actually strengthens the storm, much as was the case with Superstorm Sandy. The concern for this storm is the long period it spends over open water where it has the potential to churn up storm surge. Even if there’s no landfall, it doesn’t mean it can’t affect coastal areas with surge or flooding.
This model run of the GFS shows Jose stalling out very close to Long Island, then brushing Cape Cod, much like a Nor’easter.
And don’t look now but we could be seeing the formation of tropical storms Lee and Maria in the Atlantic as well. The storm further to the west could pose a threat to the southern Lower Antilles next week.
A pleasant Sunday gives way to a wet and cool start to the week. High pressure builds in as Monday’s storm system moves out of the area. The rest of the week, we’ll see below average temperatures, but mostly sunny conditions along with a more comfortable, drier airmass. This will be my last update for a couple of weeks as I’ll be traveling to Europe – I’ll miss out on the solar eclipse happening on August 21st, which I’ll give some details on in this post.
Rest of today – a low pressure center tracking near or over Long Island during the day today will bring multiple rounds of rain, which at times could be heavy. Conditions will deteriorate during the morning, and rains should pick up in the afternoon. A brief pause may occur before another round of heavy rain during the evening and overnight hours. A flash flood watch is in effect due to the possibility of upwards of 2″ of rain falling perhaps in short intervals. Temperatures will be cool with southeast winds off the ocean and clouds keeping things only in the low-mid 70s.
Tuesday – as this storm system pulls away, winds shift to the northwest and high pressure begins to build in. Tuesday should see partly sunny skies clearing up and high temperatures around 80°F.
Wednesday – nice crisp day on tap with high temperatures around 80°F again and lots of sun as high pressure remains in control.
Thursday – a notch warmer with high temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies.
Total Solar Eclipse of August 21st, 2017
This much anticipated astronomical event is approaching in 2 weeks time. The last total solar eclipse that would have been highly visible from a large portion of the continental United States dates back to March 7, 1970. This greatest magnitude of this eclipse traveled nearly directly over all the major cities of the Eastern Seaboard.
Path of the total solar eclipse of March 7, 1970
Unfortunately, this time around, we won’t be quite as lucky in New York City, but we’re still expecting around a .75 magnitude total solar eclipse peaking around 2:45PM on August 21st. Regardless, it will be an impressive sight to behold as 3/4 of the sun will be blocked out by the moon transiting directly in front of it from our viewpoint. Even with cloudy skies, you should still notice an appreciable change in lighting during this eclipse event. Hope it stays sunny though!
A hot week transitions into a weekend that will see the end of the heat and humidity for at least half of next week and maybe longer. Rain and thunderstorms dot the forecast except appropriately Sunday.
Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. The rain and thunderstorms this morning give way to a dry day otherwise.
Saturday – a warm front moves through overnight into the morning with a cold front following right on its heels. This will bring a period thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. Marginally favorable atmospheric conditions could spawn a few strong storms. Clouds clear up in the afternoon and highs are expected to reach normal levels in the mid-80s.
Sunday – cooler, drier air moves in behind the cold front Saturday. High pressure builds to the south and west and moves south sending cooler Canadian air around its periphery towards us. High temperatures will be comfortable around 80°F with lots of sun.
Monday – a weak disturbance brings rain and cooler temperatures, well below average only in the mid-upper 70s.
Trouble in the Tropics?
A vigorous tropical wave has spun up off the west African coast and Cabo Verde. Storms originating from this region have historically been some of the most powerful and damaging, but that’s if they can sustain the transit across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has this wave at a 50% of forming into a tropical depression or storm in 2 days, and 80% chance in 5 days. It’s worrying that it’s starting to get picked up on long-term GFS model runs taking a swipe at the US East Coast as a strong tropical cyclone, however, this far out, it’s difficult to say which one of many scenarios could play out. It does bear monitoring though.
GFS for Wednesday 8/16, with the tropical system in the picture right off the East Coast of the US.
