Category Archives: Thunderstorms

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather – Sept 3, 2015

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The holiday weekend opens up with a break in the heat, but the relief doesn’t last long before the heat gets turned back on in time for Labor Day itself. We get a chance for a few scattered thunderstorms overnight tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail over the medium to long term.

Rest of today – hot and humid with highs in the low-90s under hazy and cloudy skies.

Friday – a cold front forecast to pass through the area from the north tonight could touch off only a few scattered thunderstorms, since conditions are unfavorable for widespread coverage. The day starts off overcast but as cooler, relatively drier air moves in behind the cold front, skies should begin to clear from east to west. High temperatures will be significantly cooler in the low-80s.

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Saturday – the break in the heat gives us probably the best day of the weekend with comfortable high temperatures in the low-80s and lower humidity along with plenty of sun. This is due to high pressure building over the area.

Sunday – as the high pressure moves offshore and southeast, it allows a warmer, more humid tropical airmass back into the region, heralding a return to very similar weather conditions as what we’ve experienced this week. Highs will climb back up into the upper-80s under sunny skies.

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Labor Day (Monday) – the heat and humidity persists, giving the Caribbean Day Parade an appropriately tropical feel. Temperatures should again reach into the upper-80s with mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 31, 2015

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A heat wave is on for the end of August, and will persist into the beginning of September. A hot, humid tropical airmass will be firmly in control through out the early and mid-week period before we get some heat relief late in the week. The hot temperatures and a lack of widespread precipitation may allow drought to redevelop in some parts of the region, and worsen over Long Island.

Rest of today – possibly the hottest day of the week, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s inland despite some cloud cover and uncomfortable humidity levels.

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Tuesday – a weak backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, although no precipitation is anticipated due to insufficient instability. Tomorrow should see high temperatures in the lower 90s again under sunnier skies.

Wednesday – the heat wave continues with temperatures yet again expected to top out in the low-mid 90s with sunny skies. There could be a few isolated pop-up showers/thunderstorms late in the day with very limited coverage.

Thursday – expected to be the last day of the heat wave, sunny with high temperatures at or above 90.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 20, 2015

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Unsettled weather will be a trend for the end of this week and into the weekend as a cold front pushes through the region. Friday is shaping up to be the worst day with heavy rain with a risk for flash flooding. Conditions improve somewhat Saturday and Sunday, although a chance for showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either day.

Rest of today – slight chance of showers or thunderstorms persists through this afternoon, though the best chances remain west of the Hudson, as was the case yesterday. We’ve hit a humid highin the mid-80s with a mix of sun and clouds above.

Friday – a cold front will be pushing through during the course of the day Friday. As the frontal boundary approaches overnight and into the early morning hours Friday, a slow moving band of heavy rain is expected to form and track from north to south across the area. It appears likely that the heaviest rain will fall in a narrow band during the early morning hours, and that things may already be drying out by the AM rush. High temperatures will be cooler than average with the cloud cover and rain, near 80.

Satellite image of the storm that will be bringing us some heavy rain Friday
Satellite image of the storm that will be bringing us some heavy rain Friday
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 3AM EDT Friday
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 3AM EDT Friday

A chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through Friday. By the end of the day, some areas could pick up between 1-2″ of rain, raising the risk of some flash flooding.

Saturday – although high pressure will be building once the cold front passes on Friday, a chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on the backside of this front. Temperatures will again be below normal with mostly cloudy skies and a high in the low-80s.

 

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Sunday – showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for Sunday, which will end up being nearly identical to Saturday in sensible weather with high temperatures in the low-80s and mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2015

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A heatwave over the weekend breaks Tuesday, as we enter an extended period of unsettled weather for the mid-week period. Temperatures cool off somewhat into the mid-80s, slightly above average for this time of year. Each day, except Tuesday perhaps will carry some small but non-zero chance of rain.

Rest of today – the possibility exists for some isolated thunderstorms to form over portions of the region this afternoon. The setup would be similar to yesterday when the temperature differential resulting from a sea breeze served as the trigger for some slow-moving storms. Plenty of instability from the heat and humidity and very little convective inhibition will mean that storms could form rapidly. However, the exact location of where these storms form is difficult to pinpoint. Areas that experience storms could expect heavy rain, otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures that could touch record levels in the mid-90s.

High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 2PM EDT today
High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 2PM EDT today

Tuesday – a bit cooler with temperatures in the upper-80s and sunny skies to start, clouds increasing towards the evening.

Wednesday – high temperatures will cool off further into the mid-80s under cloud cover, and there will be a chance for rain throughout the day. This precipitation is associated with a slow-moving cold front approaching from the west.

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Thursday – a similar day to Wednesday, perhaps with a bit more sun, but highs again in the mid-80s and a chance of rain through the day

NYC Weather Update

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The weather story for the first part of this week will be a prolonged heavy rain event occurring Tuesday, delivering parts of the region some much needed precipitation. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Thursday, first because of the rain and clouds and then due to the influence of high pressure to our west.

Rest of today – NYC remains under mostly sunny skies, however, cloud cover is building to our west, so we could end up with more clouds later this afternoon. It will be a noticeably more humid day, although temperatures will still only top out in the low-80s.

Tuesday – rain should begin falling in the early overnight hours, and looks to persist through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. The heaviest rain seems likely to fall during the morning hours. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, and while the atmospheric conditions will not be very favorable (timing of the strongest lift will occur early in the day before any substantial daytime heating, which will be diminished due to cloud cover anyway), a few strong storms could still pop up in the morning. Some areas could see some isolated flash flooding if storm cells end up training over the same spots. Under the cloud cover and rain, high temperatures should be limited again to the low-80s.

North American Model High Resolution simulated radar for 11AM EDT Tuesday
North American Model High Resolution simulated radar for 11AM EDT Tuesday

Wednesday – rain will have cleared out after the passage of the cold front responsible for Tuesday’s storms. Behind this cold front, high pressure will set up over the Ohio Valley, bringing in cool, dry air. Temperatures will be quite comfortable in the low-mid 80s with low humidity.

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Thursday – the pattern of cool, dry weather continues with another day of sunny skies and high temperatures slightly below normal in the low-80s.

Drought Relief

A slight/moderate drought continues to cling to areas of Long Island and costal Connecticut, as you can see from the map below. It does appear that this upcoming Tuesday storm will bring some much needed rain to these particular areas. As you’ll also note from the map of forecast precipitation totals for Tuesday, some of the highest totals are expected precisely in the areas that need them the most.

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Weather Prediction Center's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for total precipitation between 8AM EDT Tuesday and 8AM EDT Wednesday
Weather Prediction Center’s Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for total precipitation between 8AM EDT Tuesday and 8AM EDT Wednesday

NYC Weather Update – Jul 27, 2015

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The heat will be the main weather story of this week, with temperatures of 90ºF or higher forecast to occur for a majority of the week. This heat does not appear to abate until at least this weekend. Incidentally, according to the Chinese lunar calendar, we’ve just hit 大暑 (literally “big heat”), a period of 2 weeks that are supposed to be the hottest of the summer. Fans of the heat, it is time for you to rejoice.

Rest of today – clouds this morning should slowly give way to more sun in the afternoon. The cloud cover now will help keep temperatures in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, but otherwise hot with highs in the low-90s and a good amount of sunshine.

Wednesday – shaping up to be the hottest day of the week, with high temperatures in the mid-90s.

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Thursday – with a cold front approaching from the west, there may be a few thunderstorms in the afternoon on Thursday which might grant some reprieve from the heat. Otherwise, sun and clouds with a high temperature in the low-90s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 23, 2015

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The end of this week and weekend will be characterized by comfortable conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front from Canada will be approaching from the west by Sunday, however, this frontal boundary looks to weaken as it nears the area. There should be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms, but it is likely most areas stay dry through the weekend.

Rest of today – high pressure over the Ohio Valley will yield sunny skies, with a high in the mid-80s. Dry air moving from the west will make for a pleasant feel today.

Friday – high pressure remains in control tomorrow, providing for conditions almost identical to today, with highs again in the mid-80s under sunny skies with low humidity.

Saturday – although the high pressure center will weaken somewhat as it moves east on Saturday, it will still dominate our sensible weather, leading to yet another day of basically the same weather conditions with highs in the mid-80s and plenty of sun.

Sunday – with the high continuing to weaken and move to the southeast, we get a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary originating in Canada moving into the region. Rain chances aren’t all that high, though, so it’s likely most areas stay dry. Highs again in the mid-80s with increasing cloud cover.

Global Forecast System model output for Sunday at 11AM EDT
Global Forecast System model output for Sunday at 11AM EDT

Drought Update

Drought conditions over New York state have drastically abated since the beginning of the month, especially in upstate regions. However, moderate drought persists over parts of Long Island.

Drought index for New York State, areas in yellow indicate slight drought, while areas shaded in tan indicate moderate drought.
Drought index for New York State, areas in yellow indicate slight drought, while areas shaded in tan indicate moderate drought.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 13, 2015

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This week will feature two contrasting airmasses, with the beginning of the week influenced by a warm, humid airmass, before a cold front Wednesday brings some relief from the heat and humidity and brings in cooler, drier air. A warm front, then this cold front, along with the warm temperatures and humidity will lead to the chance for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Rest of today – warm, humid, with hazy skies and a high in the mid-upper 80s.

Tuesday – a warm front approaches the area from the southwest then stalls to our south. Winds shift to the southeast, providing somewhat of a cooling effect with a sea breeze. However, inland areas should still see temperatures well into the mid-80s. A wave of low pressure will be sliding east along the stalled frontal boundary during the day Tuesday, however, the best chances for rain and thunderstorms associated with this wave look to be confined to areas well west of NYC. A spotty shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the city.

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Wednesday – as the stationary front from Tuesday moves away, a cold front will be pushing through the region on Wednesday. This will allow for the chance of rain and thunderstorms to persist. Chances for precipitation Wednesday are overall lower than Tuesday, and it will be a set up where most of the area stays dry, with only a few locations picking up appreciable rainfall from a passing storm. Highs will continue to be warm in the mid-upper 80s ahead of the cold front passing through.

Thursday – following the passage of the cold front, high pressure will build over the region. Clockwise flow around this high pressure will usher in refreshing, drier air with a north wind. Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler, in the low-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 6, 2015

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We get a dose of summer weather this week, after a rather cool start to July this past weekend. Along with the warmer temperatures, there will also be some chance for unsettled weather up until Friday as a cold front transits late Wednesday into Thursday.

Tuesday – clouds and sun with high temperatures topping out in the mid-80s and possibly upper-80s in a few spots. There is a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon especially in western portions of the region.

Wednesday – clouds mixed with some sun again with a warm, tropical airmass in place ahead of a cold front allowing for high temperatures to rise into the upper-80s to low-90s in a few spots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon, however, forecast models are still presenting disparate outcomes as to the exact timing and coverage of precipitation Wednesday. With warm temperatures and ample moisture, storms that do form have the potential to produce periods of heavy rain.

 

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Thursday – chances for rain and thunderstorms continue into the overnight hours Thursday, but it does appear that we get a break during the morning. High temperatures will be quite warm again in the upper-80s despite a cold front having moved through. Another weak disturbance is forecast to approach the area in the afternoon, giving us another chance at some showers and thunderstorms.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 30, 2015

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This short holiday week will feature decent weather for the most part, with the exception of Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As of now, it does appear that there will be a chance of showers/thunderstorms on July 4th itself, however, uncertainty and considerable disparities between different forecast models has been noted by forecasters. We should have a clearer picture of the situation later this week.

Rest of today – clouds gradually increase in coverage during the day today with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight, chances for rain will steadily pick up as a warm front approaches the area from the south and west.

Wednesday – a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low-mid 80s. There is a good chance for showers early on in the day. However, the chance of rain starts to diminish in the afternoon, and it is unclear if there will be enough instability remaining in the atmosphere following the passage of the warm front above to support more rain or storms.gfs_namer_033_1000_850_thick

Thursday – a cold front following on the heels of the warm front mentioned above will mean that there is still a chance for showers and thunderstorms as that frontal boundary approaches. Temperatures should be similar to Wednesday, in the low-mid 80s.

Looking ahead at the holiday weekend, it looks like both Friday and Sunday should be mostly sunny with temperatures in the low-80s. There is a small chance for rain and thunderstorms for Independence Day, but there is enough forecast uncertainty in the forecast models to hope for a dry day Saturday as well.