Category Archives: Thunderstorms

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 9, 2019

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A couple stormy nights in the city the last couple days will give way to a superb weekend of mostly sunny skies and warm, but comfortable temperatures. High pressure will remain in control over the region’s weather going into next week. The next chance for significant precipitation won’t enter the picture until mid-week next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures ranging 84-87°F. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm later this afternoon with a weak disturbance pivoting through at the upper-levels. Forecasters cite the lack of any significant convective inhibition so storms could pretty easily get going, however, moisture content isn’t all that great. Overnight lows should be mild in upper-60s.

HRRR model simulated radar for 4:45PM today

Saturday – with a cold front passing today, we’ll have cooler temperatures tomorrow, high temperatures reaching only into the low-80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows cooling into the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Sunday – just another beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows starting to warm back up into the upper-60s.

Monday – temperatures will warm back up as the high pressure center shifts east, and we get the warmer southerly, and westerly return flow. We should see high temperatures in upper-80s and overnight lows in the low-70s.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 6, 2019

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Unsettled weather takes hold during the mid-week period as a couple prefrontal disturbances affect the area. The focus for heavier rain will be later Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Behind this cold front, conditions should improve and result in a pleasant, dry weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a shortwave trough lingers around the area. Temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday

Wednesday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Heavy rain possible especially later in the day with a cold front approaching. With a moist air mass in place, some thunderstorms that pop up could produce heavy downpours and localized flooding. Rain could continue overnight in more isolated form. Lows in the low-70s.

Thursday – brief subsidence behind the cold front that passes through Thursday should result in calmer weather and warmer temperatures with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Before that happens though, rain and thunderstorms can still pop up. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 temperature outlook valid Aug 11 – Aug 15 (this Sunday into next week)

Friday – cooler, sunny, with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows cooling into the upper-60s as Canadian high pressure begins to build.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 8, 2019

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As with last week, high pressure will play a big role in sensible weather this week. Rain chances are going to be limited to later this week when a frontal system moves across the area. Temperatures will be warm to start in the upper-80s then cool off later in the week back into the mid-80s.

Rest of today – early showers move through then we’ll see gradual clearing. Temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Tuesday – much warmer with temperatures in the upper-80s, and lots of sun with high pressure building and taking over. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – continued warmth with highs again in the upper-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation valid for Thursday 8PM

Thursday – clouds increasing late with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms late and going into the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 5, 2019

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This weekend starts off with warm temperatures, and then will get punctuated by the passage of a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Behind this front, a cooler, drier Canadian air mass moves in with high pressure building to start next week.

Rest of today – warm, with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms going into Saturday.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – mostly cloudy with chances for showers and thunderstorms peaking in the late afternoon and early evening hours. High temperatures in the upper-80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will peak late with instability and lift maximized from daytime heating and an approaching. Some of these storms could be strong in nature and with plenty of moisture available, these could bring heavy downpours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Sunday – generally improving conditions with decreasing clouds and high temperatures in the mid-80s. Some showers still possible early. Overnight lows into Monday in the low-70s.

GFS Model for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation at 2AM Monday

Monday – a nice day with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and sunny skies as high pressure takes control. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 1, 2019

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Weather this week will mostly be governed by the presence of high pressure, with the exception of a cold front sweeping through Tuesday night into Wednesday that could bring some showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain warm in the upper-80s and low-90s during this time. July 4th festivities look to be safe from any rain at this time.

Rest of today – sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Tuesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s, close to 90°F. Chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches from the north. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – high pressure starts building again with mostly sunny skies expected. High temperatures in the upper-80s with overnight lows in the low-70s.

Climate Prediction Center forecast for temperature trends between Jul 6-10, showing possibility for above average warmth to continue into the weekend.

Thursday (Independence Day) – another day of slightly above average warmth with high temperatures forecast in the upper-80s. Increasing clouds due to the approach of a weakening warm front from the southwest. Overnight lows in the low-70s, rain should hold off for fireworks viewing.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 28, 2019

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We start the weekend with hot temperatures but some showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday should cool things off back to near-normal warmth. In general, there’s going to be enough sun this weekend to enjoy some outdoor activities. Just be prepared for a quick moving afternoon thunderstorm. Saturday’s storms could edge into the severe range.

Rest of today – hot, sunny, with high temperatures ranging in the upper-80s to low-90s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

  • Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Saturday, showing slight risk for severe thunderstorms in NYC
  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – partly sunny with increasing clouds later in the day. Showers and thunderstorms possible especially in the afternoon and early evening hours when solar heating is maximized and a cold front/shortwave trough moves through the area. There is some potential for the storms to reach severe limits, with the primary threat being damaging winds. High temperatures near 90°F, with overnight lows in the low-70s.

Sunday – cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-80s but mostly sunny skies. There’s also a chance for showers and thunderstorms with a second cold front pushing through during the day, but coverage will be more scattered and storms are expected to be weaker if they form due to lack of upper-air support and less favorable conditions for instability. Overnight lows noticeably cooler, in the mid-60s.

GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, precipitation for 8AM Monday

Monday – a gem of a day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows back into the upper-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 25, 2019

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Earlier showers and thunderstorms today presage the passage of a warm front over the area. Behind this, high pressure begins to build tomorrow and persists through the end of the week. Temperatures during this stretch are likely to consistently reach into the upper-80s and low-90s in the city. As if on cue, the first full week of summer this year may also see a possible heat wave.

Rest of today – clouds gradually diminishing towards the evening. A few scattered showers still possible with a cold front forecast to move through later. High temperatures in the low-80s with cloud cover in place. Overnight lows will be mild in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – relatively warm start to the day allows temperatures to climb into the low-90s in the city with the urban heat island effect. Mostly sunny skies with high pressure now in control. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Thursday – high temperatures again into the low-90s with lots of sun. Luckily, the position of this particular high pressure doesn’t translate to the influx of a humid airmass, so the overall feel of these temperatures won’t be as muggy. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for 2PM Thursday. Warmer than normal 850 mb temperatures can be a good indicator of hot surface temperatures.

Friday – yet another day of 90°F+ temperatures possible, which would mean an official heatwave. Still mostly sunny with high pressure remaining in control over sensible weather. Overnight lows continuing to be mild, in the mid-70s. Great beach weather!

NYC Weather Update – Jun 17, 2019

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A slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary lingering across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast will bring multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. As multiple waves of low pressure travel along this boundary, we’ll see several rounds of rain spread across multiple days, pretty much until the end of the week. During this stretch, because of the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will range slightly below average in the upper-70s.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with rain arriving later in the day. HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) simulated radar suggests the onset time of the first round of rain sometime between 5-7PM. This first round of rain isn’t expected to last too long. Overnight, around 1AM, we could see more substantial rain. Temperatures during the day peaking in the upper-70s and overnight lows in the mid-60s.

  • High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 5:30PM
  • High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 1AM Tuesday

Tuesday – high temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies again. Rain chances more likely in the morning. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Wednesday – chance for showers and thunderstorms continues, with high temperatures in the mid-70s and overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Thursday – yet more chances for rain and cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid-70s, and overnight lows again in the mid-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 13, 2019

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A cold front that pushed through overnight leaves us with some cool, crisp air to start the weekend. The first half of the weekend will be characterized by plenty of sun before a slow moving frontal system approaches later in the weekend. This will bring back chances for showers and thunderstorms going into next week when it appears an active weather pattern could take root.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. A post-frontal trough may touch off a few isolated storms later in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday, showing high pressure off the coast of NC

Saturday – mostly sunny with highs in the low-80s. High pressure takes hold off the Southeast US coast, with clockwise return flow bringing some warmer air this way. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Sunday – with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, clouds increase and chances for showers and thunderstorms do also. High temperatures should still be mild in the low-80s. As the Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances continuing.

NAM output of 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure and precipitation for 8PM Sunday.

Monday – the frontal boundary that approaches from the northwest weakens and stalls out. This is partly due to flow at the upper levels flattening out/becoming somewhat parallel to the front’s orientation, and partly due to the high pressure that by this time will become anchored over Bermuda. Multiple waves of low pressure are forecast to move along this stalled front bringing another day that holds chances for showers and thunderstorms. Prolonged southwest/westerly flow ahead of the cold front which really slows down should allow temperatures to reach the mid-80s despite more cloud cover and precipitation. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with yet more rain possible.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 11, 2019

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After a rainy start to the week, high pressure takes over during the mid-week period. Another storm system moves in Thursday. Behind this next bout of rain, a dry and mostly sunny weekend should await us.

Rest of today – skies clearing as a cold front pushing. Winds picking up with some subsidence (sinking air, since air mass behind the cold front is cooler and drier). High temperatures reaching into the upper-70s with this subsidence and some downsloping from the northwest. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – high pressure remains firmly rooted over the area. High temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Thursday – a developing low closer to the coast and another one further inland over the Great Lakes will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. First, like Monday, a warm front will lift through earlier in the day, then a cold front is expected to follow later on. High temperatures in the low-70s due to rain and cloud cover. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

NAM model for 1000-500 mb thickness and surface reflectivity at 8AM Thursday, showing a distinct area of rain associated to a low emerging off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula

Friday – with a cool start, temperatures top out in the mid-70s. Mostly sunny in the wake of the cold front Thursday. Overnight lows in the low-60s.