Category Archives: Thunderstorms

NYC Weather Update – Jun 25, 2018

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This week starts off with a string of pleasant, dry conditions with Canadian high pressure in control. Temperatures will be a bit below normal due to the cool influence of this continental Canadian air mass. We get a chance for some rain mid-week, then temperature start warming up. Looking ahead, we could be seeing an extended period of 90°F+ temperatures starting the end of this week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, high temperatures around 80°F.

Tuesday – another great day with high temperatures just about 80°F and lots of sun.

Wednesday – increasing clouds as the next storm system approaches the region. High temperatures again about 80°F.

Thursday – overnight into Thursday, rain chances start to pick up as a warm front approaches the area from the southwest. This will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms, which will continue into Thursday. High temperatures will remain around the 80°F.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 22, 2018

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We got to enjoy one weekend last week where it didn’t rain at all. Unfortunately that won’t be the case this week with a storm passing through tomorrow. Temperatures will be cool with the influence of an onshore easterly wind before the passage of a warm front that will bring the chance for rain and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with a high in the mid-70s.

Saturday – cloudy, with chances for rain and thunderstorms especially later in the day. The best chances for thunderstorms come with elevated convection late in the day and going into the overnight hours as a warm front approaches from the south. Temperatures will be cool in the mid-70s again.

Sunday – improving conditions with warmer temperatures in the warm sector after the passage of the warm front. Highs should reach into the mid-80s, possibly higher depending how much sun we get.

Monday – Canadian high pressure returns in the wake of this weekend’s storm and gives us sunny weather with mild temperatures in the low-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 18, 2018

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A sultry start to this week will lead to cooler and more pleasant weather as the week wears on. We have two chances for rain, overnight tonight and then overnight Wednesday. Overall, it appears to be a dry week, with another unsettled weekend coming up.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. We could set or break a record for Central Park today at 95ºF. A cold front approaching later tonight could touch off some strong thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain given the moist environment. The strongest storms will be limited to areas north of the city, away from the usualy stabilizing marine influence, and where wind shear profiles are stronger. Best timing for showers and thunderstorms will be 8PM tonight with a pre-frontal trough then early Tuesday morning with the actual cold front passing through.

Tuesday – behind this cold front, clouds should clear up, though tomorrow is still expected to be quite warm with high temperatures in the upper-80s. The main difference will be lower dew points that should result in a decidedly less muggy feel to the day.

Wednesday – warm with high temperatures in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies. A weak disturbance pushing through overnight may bring some rain.

Thursday – nice day with high temperatures in the low-80s. Cooler, refreshing Canadian high pressure will dominate.

NYC Weather – Jun 12, 2018

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A mostly dry, and pleasant week is in store for us. We will see a steady warming trend, with the only real chance for wet weather happening Wednesday accompanying the passage of a warm front and cold front. Great weather lasts right into the weekend.

Rest of today – cool and sunny with high temperatures below normal in the low-70s due to the influence of easterly onshore winds.

Wednesday – a warm front will approach from the southwest. Ahead of that frontal boundary, we could see chances for mainly stratiform showery rain during the late morning hours. Behind this warm front, expect a humid feeling high in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies until the arrival of the trailing cold front. This second frontal boundary has a better chance to fire off a few thunderstorms, which could be locally strong, late in the evening and into the overnight hours.

Thursday – high pressure returns and gives us a nice sunny day of high temperatures in the low-80s with westerly winds bringing in warmer air from the interior.

Friday – slightly cooler in the upper-70s to around 80ºF but lots of sun again with high pressure staying in control but shifting east.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 1, 2018

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This weekend’s weather will feel gloomy and feature multiple chances for rain. The influence of the remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will influence the air mass, making it feel very humid, and allowing for the potential for heavy rain. Going into next week, mixed signals from major forecast models hint at the possibility for a coastal storm.

Rest of today – an early round of rain and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a warm front should give way to a relatively rain-free day. Fog should begin to dissipate as the rain passes through. Temperatures will be mild, in the low-80s with overcast conditions, with a muggy feel due to the influence of a tropical air mass (thanks Alberto!). Late in the day and into the overnight hours, a cold front will approach that could spark a few more storms.

Saturday – the cold front that approaches from the northwest overnight will slow down as it nears us and stall out in our vicinity. An impulse of upper-level energy will move through and likely spawn a low pressure center in the area. This will lead to better chances for rain than today. Temperatures will be around 80°F again with overcast skies.

Sunday – this will be the best day of the weekend as Canadian high pressure attempts to build in. This should yield dry conditions, though there will probably still be plenty of clouds around. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs around 70°F in this Canadian air mass.

Monday – there are mixed signals in forecast models that suggest the possibility of a coastal storm developing early next week. At this point it appears we’ll have a wet start to the week with cool temperatures in the mid-60s and mostly cloudy skies, as well as more rain.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 25, 2018

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Memorial Day weekend in NYC kicks off with two incredible days of summer-like weather with excellent conditions for all outdoor activities, including hitting the beach. The weather shifts markedly for Sunday and Monday as a cooler air mass takes hold of the region behind a backdoor cold front. Temperature could be 15ºF-20ºF cooler between the first and second half of the weekend. Rain will accompany the passage of the backdoor cold front Saturday night into Sunday. No day will be a washout though.

Rest of today – sunny with breezy southwesterly winds bringing in warm air. Temperatures should soar into the upper-80s with a few spots reaching the 90ºF mark outside of coastal areas where sea breezes should set up fairly quickly.

Saturday – warm again with high temperatures likely reaching to around 90ºF away from south-facing shores with the influence of sea breezes. Late in the day towards the evening hours, a backdoor cold front will be approaching from the north. Ahead of this frontal boundary, clouds will increase throughout the day, and some pop up showers and thunderstorms could occur. Sea breezes may help initiate some of these storms closer to the coast. Given that there will be some instability in the atmosphere, a couple of these storms could approach severe limits, with strong wind gusts and heavy rain.


Sunday – overnight from Saturday into Sunday is when the bulk of the rain associated with this cold front will fall. There could be a scattered thunderstorm overnight. Rain will impact the beginning of the day Sunday, but conditions should improve later in the afternoon. Behind the backdoor front, easterly onshore winds will predominate, leading to much cooler temperatures only in the low-70s under cloudy skies.

Monday (Memorial Day) – cool with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.

 

First Tropical Storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Although our weekend weather won’t be ideal, we are lucky not to have to plan for anything worse. Residents of the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida Panhandle will need to contend with the arrival of the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Subtropical Storm Alberto.

NYC Weather Update – May 15, 2018

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The story of this week will be the continuation of an unsettled weather pattern from this past weekend. Today, we will see a chance for some severe thunderstorms, and more rain chances lurk for us during the rest of this week, even extending into the weekend. Temperatures during this time will vary between normal and below normal depending on the extent of cloud cover and rain.

Rest of today – warm, humid, with a high in the mid-80s. Chances for severe thunderstorms increasing late in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, with primary threats being damaging “hurricane force” wind gusts, as well as heavy rain. Some large hail and an isolated tornado are not out of the question. High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar suggests the best timing of when the storms hit NYC will be around 6PM during the evening rush hour. This will make for a messy road home.

As you can feel already, the air is quite saturated (fog earlier this morning confirms this), this moisture-laden air will be one ingredient fueling storm growth later especially as temperatures warm with cloud-free skies allowing solar heating to quickly destabilize this air mass. At the surface, a cold front slowly approaching from the north and west will serve as the trigger that provides the lift necessary for storms to initiate late this afternoon. Aloft, the presence of a mid-level shortwave trough upstream of us will help prime the atmosphere, increasing lapse rates and instability aloft, while providing some additional divergence and lifting for storms. Lastly, late in the day, we will be in the right entrance region of a 300 mb jet streak, another favorable ingredient for divergence and synoptic lift. Winds at all levels above the surface will be fairly strong, producing a shear profile that favors strong winds. However, any discrete storms that form ahead of the main squall line could contain strong rotating updrafts favoring large hail and tornadoes. As usually, best chances for severe weather exist north and west of the city, away from the stabilizing influence of the marine layer near the coast. Storms will likely weaken as they hit NYC precisely due to this.

Wednesday – will be significantly cooler behind the cold front with high temperatures only in the mid-60s. Rain chances continue as the frontal boundary stalls and becomes stationary just to our south, in a similar arrangement to what took place over the weekend. This pattern looks to lock in for the rest of the week, bringing multiple chances for rain with it.

Thursday – a drier day mostly, with some slight chance for showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with high temperatures rebounding into the upper-70s. Rain moves back in again overnight going into Friday.

Friday – cooler again with temperatures dipping into the mid-60s. Mostly cloudy with more chances for rain during the day as the stationary front mentioned above pushes back north as a warm front.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 11, 2018

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This Mother’s Day weekend will unfortunately feature mostly unsettled and cool weather, though no day will be a complete washout. A frontal boundary will just linger in our vicinity during this period, moving north as a warm front, then retreating south as a cold front. This will allow multiple subtle upper level disturbances to move along this boundary, and each of these will bring a chance for rain.

Rest of today – splendid day with sunny skies and just about average high temperatures around 70ºF.

Saturday – chance for rain early between 7-11AM, then a period of mostly cloudy skies until another round of showers with some thunderstorms rolls through in the evening between 8-10PM. Cooler with high temperatures in the mid-60s.

Sunday (Mother’s Day) – chance for showers in the morning, with steadier rain possible through early afternoon. Cool, with northeasterly onshore winds, and high temperatures in the low-60s. Rain chances should diminish later in the day.

Monday – drying out with temperatures in the low-70s and partly sunny skies.

Possible Tropical Storm Impacting the US During Memorial Day?

Consecutive runs of the GFS forecast model continue to suggest that a subtropical/tropical storm could develop in the western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua in the next 10 days or so. It’s far too early to be certain of this, but the trend is worth noting. Recent runs suggest that this storm could make landfall on Florida and then travel up the east coast.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 4, 2018

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After two days of record-breaking heat in the low-90s, a pattern change is on tap for the NYC metro area going into the weekend. Cooler conditions will prevail in the wake of the passage of a cold front, which could also bring rain and thunderstorms (possibly severe). Saturday should shape up nicely but rain chances return Sunday before a cooler start to the work week.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a marginal-slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity today. We continue to be an increasingly moist warm sector east of an advancing low pressure center. As the cold front associated with this low pushes east, storms will initiate first along a pre-frontal trough during the day today (late morning-early afternoon), then again along the actual frontal boundary itself later this evening. It is the latter round of these storms that could push severe limits. There are limiting factors to this activity especially near the coast with more stable air present. Cloud cover will limit day time heating, reducing overall instability. And the earlier round of activity should serve to actually mitigate the later round of storms. Aside from the rain, it should be mostly cloudy with some breaks in the sun (that would increase chances for storms), with high temperatures in the mid-80s.


Saturday – cooler air moves in behind the cold front tonight while a weak area of high pressure builds. High temperatures should top out in the mid-70s with partly sunny conditions. Rain chances increase towards the overnight hours.

Sunday – cooler still with mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain. High temperatures only in the mid-60s as a weak disturbance passes to our south.

Monday – skies finally clear up with high temperatures moderating and warming into the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 27, 2018

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A wet end to the week will lead to a better first half of the weekend. Showers could occur again on Sunday, but we’ll once again dry out to start next week. A big shift in weather patterns will take place next week with a dramatically warmer air mass to move into the region. Summer-like temperatures in the low-80s by late next week will be a possibility.

Rest of today – cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-50s and rain. Rain beginning this morning, but tapering off in NYC by late afternoon around 4PM, just before the evening rush. Given the set up of winds from the south flowing over a warm front pushing though, some elevated thunderstorms are possible today.

Saturday – nice day on tap with mostly sunny skies and temperatures into upper-60s. Clouds increase late with the chance of scattered showers increasing overnight as a cold front passes through.

Sunday – lingering rain chance early, with conditions improving later and clouds diminishing. Cooler with highs in the upper-50s in the wake of the cold front above.