Category Archives: Tropical/Hurricanes

NYC Special Weather Update: Tropical Depression Eighteen – Oct 28, 2017

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The National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of Isla de Juventud in Cuba. The formation of TD Eighteen has implications on the forecast for Sunday’s storm as a complex scenario is set to unfold.

Impacts: forecasters are anticipating a high wind, and heavy rain event coming up. Storm total rainfall of 2-4″ and possibly higher could lead to urban and small stream flooding. The amount of rainfall over a short period of time has led our local forecast office to issue flash flood watches for much of the region. Winds will pick up as well, backing from the south to southeast, east, and eventually to north and northwest. Wind gusts could become a problem for local airports and for poor travel conditions in general. Thunderstorms are a possibility as well.

Timing: Winds are already increase today, and cloud cover will do so as well as the day progresses. Chances for rain will increase in the overnight hours, probably after 2-3AM. The strongest wind gusts will actually come on the back side of the storm going into Monday as it intensifies and the pressure gradient increases.

Discussion: a complicated set up is unfolding with a longwave trough (on the left) draping from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Meixco interacting with a developing closed low over the Tennessee Valley, and TD Eighteen. TD Eighteen is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm, which would be named Phillippe if it did form. The effect of this will be to provide a conveyor of warm and moist air from the tropics up to our area. This will help feed the developing non-tropical low forming over the southeast. This low will become the primary rainmaker, and the tropical system (whether a depression or storm) will eventually merge with it. Plenty of instability to fuel a growing storm! The pressure gradient will tighten as this storm strengthens and departs eastward, and that will be the reason for a gusty start to the work week.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Columbus Day – Oct 6, 2017

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The first half of this long weekend will continue the warm summer feel we’ve had since mid-week. Some much needed rain arrives Sunday going into next week in conjunction with the anticipated remnants of Tropical Storm Nate. This does literally mean that it will rain on the Columbus Day parade.

Rest of today – mostly sunny. Warm with highs around 80°F.

Saturday – partly sunny, not a bad day though with high temperatures in the low-80s. The stationary front depicted above that’s sitting close to the city will push north of us as a warm front. This will open the door to an increasingly tropical feel with higher dew points and more moisture in the air.

 

Sunday – mostly cloudy. Rain chances increasing in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible. Rain that develops could be heavy with tropical moisture flowing into the area. Still warm, with temperatures in the low-80s. An advancing cold front will push up precipitation partially fueled by Tropical Storm Nate (which is anticipated to make landfall on the New Orleans/Mississippi coastal area this weekend. This precipitation will be moving in on our area well in advance of the actual core of the remnants of Nate.

Monday (Columbus Day) – rain and thunderstorms as the bulk of the remnants of Nate move into the area. Rain heavy at times. Cooler with highs dipping into the mid-70s. With Nate approaching to the southwest of us, we should see more steady rain and clouds, keeping temperatures suppressed.

 

Tropical Storm Nate

Tropical Storm Nate is expected to strengthen into a minimal hurricane after it crosses near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the Gulf of Mexico. From that point, it’s expected to accelerate towards the Gulf Coast and make landfall in the vicinity of New Orleans, the Mississippi Delta and coastal Mississippi. Even though this storm will pale in comparison to Irma and Maria, it has already claimed 20 lives in Central America due to heavy rains and flooding.

 

NYC Weather Update – Sep 25, 2017

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Hurricane Maria will not be coming our way this week. The cold front that will be responsible for pushing Maria out to sea arrives late in the week and induces a return to fall weather. Until then, it will continue to look and feel like summer.

Rest of today – warm, sunny, high temperatures well into the mid and upper-80s

Tuesday – some patchy fog over night. Any fog should burn off early and high temperatures should reach in the low-80s with mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – could see some more clouds, and possibly some rain along a frontal boundary passing through. High temperatures in the low-80s.

Thursday – clouds and sun with temperaturea around 80°F.

NYC Weekend Weather – Hurricane Maria – Sep 22, 2017

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We have a superb weekend of weather coming up. Temperatures will be anomalously warm for this time of the year, with highs ranging in the mid-upper 80s. It will feel more like late July than late September. Excellent beach weather, if not for the continuing coastal impacts of Jose. The warm spell continues into next week. Our eyes turn towards Hurricane Maria, which after devastating Puerto Rico and Dominica, is now heading up the East Coast. Maria is not expected to make landfall, but it could still bring coastal impacts like Jose.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures around 80°F.

Saturday – mostly sunny, very warm, temperatures 10-15°F above average for this time of the year.

Sunday – high pressure remains in place with lots of sun and high temperatures again in the upper-80s.

Monday – sunny, temperatures in the upper-80s yet again.

 

Hurricane Maria

You can now see both Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose and Hurricane Maria in the same satellite image of the continental US. Because Jose has eroded the high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic, Maria will have a path to move northwards up along the East Coast. It does look like Maria will get picked up by a frontal boundary late in the week that pushes it out to sea though.

NYC Weather & Tropical Update – Sep 18

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Hurricane Jose will be the primary weather maker for us in the NYC region during the beginning of the week. Tropical storm watches are up for almost the entire the Northeast coast, except for NYC itself. The storm is expected to continue weakening, and while landfall on the US mainland is not expected, there will still be plenty of impacts from the storm.

Monday – isolated chance of showers, primarily this morning. Highs in the mid-70s with cloudy skies.

Tuesday – showers likely from the bands of what will probably a low-end Hurricane Jose or high-end tropical storm. Due to the track of Jose, it will look and feel much like a Nor’easter, with steady winds from the northeast between 15-20 mph. High temperatures in the low-70s. These winds will peak overnight into Wednesday around 25 mph.

Wednesday – rain is still possible from the influence of Tropical Storm Jose. Temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Winds from the north between 20-25 mph.

Thursday – much more pleasant as Jose moves away from us and continues to weaken. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s.

 

Hurricane Jose

Hurricane Jose has been exhibiting signs of weakening over the past few days. In this latest satellite image, you can see the center of circulation is exposed and the primary convective areas are well to the north. This is due to strong mid-level wind shear from the south. The storm is also about to leave the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Both these factors should continue to lead to steady weakening.

As the storm weakens, it has expanded in size, so despite its center not being forecast to make landfall, it is still expected to bring significant coastal impacts (beach erosion, coastal flooding, high surf) along with heavy rain.

As a side note – Hurricane Maria also bears watching with the potential to affect the East Coast next week.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Eye on Jose – Sep 15, 2017

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The main weather headline going into the weekend is the eventual track of Tropical Storm Jose. Depending on its proximity to land, we could see some nasty effects from the storm next Tuesday or Wednesday. The weekend itself should be rather uneventful, the veritable calm before the storm.

Rest of today – warm and mostly sunny. Small chance for an isolated PM pop-up thunderstorm especially inland and west.

Saturday – more clouds but still a nice day with highs around 80°F.

Sunday – probably the best day of the weekend with mostly sunny skies and a high around 80°F again.

Monday – pleasant enough to start the week. Increasing clouds, which will end the streak of above normal weather. With Jose approaching from the south we may also see increasing onshore winds cooling things off.

 

Jose an Increasing Threat to the East Coast

While Texas, Florida, and parts of the Caribbean are still reeling from the impacts of major hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Jose could pose a problem for us along the East Coast. Jose has been meandering aimlessly in the western Atlantic over the last few days and has done an anti-cyclonic loop. It’s now beginning to move west-northwest and there are a few forecast models that show it making landfall along the East Coast or coming very close to it.

It shouldn’t be too surprising that the cone of uncertainty in the official National Hurricane Center’s forecast is so large at day 5 given the substantial spread that exists amongst individual members of different modeling systems. Note that there is still plenty of time for this storm to curve out to sea with primary impacts being limited to beach erosion and coastal flooding. However, if the storm comes closer to shore or makes landfall, then we’re talking about a much more substantial problem.

Critical factors for steering this storm will include the strength of a blocking ridge (area of high pressure) which you can see in the upper right of the following image, and whether Jose gets picked up by a frontal boundary and pushed east. A stronger high pressure would block Jose’s eastward progress, and the timing of the frontal boundary passing over the East Coast will be crucial.

Jose is expected to intensify somewhat back to a minimal Category 1 storm over this time. On its approach to this area, it’s possible that it might begin the process of extratropical transition, where its center becomes less defined and loses a warm core. However, this process could also infuse some energy via baroclinic forcing that actually strengthens the storm, much as was the case with Superstorm Sandy. The concern for this storm is the long period it spends over open water where it has the potential to churn up storm surge. Even if there’s no landfall, it doesn’t mean it can’t affect coastal areas with surge or flooding.

This model run of the GFS shows Jose stalling out very close to Long Island, then brushing Cape Cod, much like a Nor’easter.

 

And don’t look now but we could be seeing the formation of tropical storms Lee and Maria in the Atlantic as well. The storm further to the west could pose a threat to the southern Lower Antilles next week.

Hurricane Irma Update – 5PM, Sep 9, 2017

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Hurricane Irma has made landfall on the mainland of the Florida Peninsula at Marco Island. The eye is directly over Naples as of the time of this post. As the winds start to shift to the west and southwest in areas south of the eye of Irma, destructive storm surge will rapidly become a serious threat to life and property. The storm has weakened somewhat to a strong Category 2 with 110 mph winds. This does not diminish the wind threat, or the storm surge, flooding rain, and tornado threat.

Current Situation

Irma’s eye has filled in again as it’s interacting with Florida. It is a large, powerful storm which easily covers the entire state of Florida. There are still widespread reports of hurricane force wind gusts along the east coast of Florida, despite the eye being on the opposite side of the state.

Headlines

  • Storm surge has been flooding the streets of Miami all day. The storm surge threat will become very dangerous for southwest Florida in the next couple hours as the eye moves north along the west coast of Florida. This will bring onshore winds from the west and southwest and push the ocean over land.
  • Onshore winds along northern Florida and the Georgia/South Carolina coasts tonight will bring a storm surge risk there as well.
  • Wind threat is less serious than it was when Irma was still a strong Category 4, but a 110 mph Category 2 storm is still serious. Wind gusts recorded at Naples reached 142 mph. The northern eyewall is packing the biggest punch and this will continue to advance north along the west coast of Florida.
  • Next cities in line for a beating will be Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, and then the Tampa Bay area.
  • Tornado warnings have been popping up along the east coast of Florida with some of the stronger bands of Irma.

Forecast Track

It is pretty clear now that Irma will continue north to just west of north as it traverses the state of Florida along its west coast. Tampa Bay is the largest city at risk along this path.

Forecast Intensity

Irma is still expected to maintain hurricane strength until Monday. It should pass over Tampa Bay as a strong Category 2 storm. It will continue to gradually weaken during the next 48 hours followed by more rapid weakening.

Hurricane Irma Update – 11AM Sep 10, 2017

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Hurricane Irma made landfall traversed the Florida Keys overnight as a powerful 130 mph Category 4 storm. As suspected, it was able to re-strengthen slightly over the warm waters of the Florida Straits. Landfall on the southwest coast of Florida somewhere near Naples is imminent. The forecast track is a worst case scenario for Tampa Bay, which could experience a direct hit from Irma’s eye as a Category 3 storm.

Current Situation

As of 11AM, Irma was a Category 4 storm with max sustained winds of 130 mph. It was located in the Gulf of Mexico between Key West and Naples and moving north or north-northwest.

Headlines

  • Landfall on southwest Florida will occur this afternoon as a Category 4. Devastating wind damage is expected.
  • Storm surge will occur on the southwestern side of Irma. As of now, offshore winds from the north side of Irma are pushing water out to sea. This water will return as a storm surge once winds shift to onshore on the backside of the storm.
  • Devastating winds impacts are expected for Tampa Bay with this forecast track. This will be the first direct impact of a hurricane of this magnitude in Tampa Bay since 1921.
  • Heavy, flooding rain is expected across Florida as well as much farther inland in the Southeast.

Forecast Track

Forecast models are tightly clustered on a solution that takes Irma right up the west coast of Florida. This puts the cities of Naples, Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, and Tampa Bay at high risk of experiencing the worst winds from Irma’s core.

Forecast Intensity

Irma is expected to weaken as it moves up through the coast of Florida. However, it will still be a dangerous Category 3 or strong Category 2 storm when passing Tampa Bay. It will also likely bring strong winds to large parts of Georgia.

Hurricane Irma Update – 5PM Sep 9, 2017

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Hurricane Irma is moving away from the north shore of Cuba and entering the very warm waters of the Florida Straits. While it’s still moving west-northwest, it is still anticipated to finally make a turn towards the northwest as it’s rounding the southwestern periphery of the high pressure over the Atlantic that has steered it up to this point.

Current Situation

Irma’s eye shows some signs of organization and clearing up. The National Hurricane Center still pegs the storm as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. As outlined in previous posts, the land interaction with Cuba has produced adverse effects on Irma, disrupting its core and causing it to weaken. However, now that it is clearing the island of Cuba and into the open waters of the Florida Straits, it should still have a window to re-intensify before hitting Florida.

Headlines

  • Forecast models are converging on a solution that takes Irma just inland and parallel to the west coast of Florida after a landfall near Marco Island.
  • First landfall could occur somewhere between Key West and Marathon Key.
  • Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Naples, Port Charlotte, and the Tampa Bay area are under serious risk of a direct hit from the eye of Irma, which could regain Category 4 strength. Storm surge is a major concern for the west coast of Florida and the southwest of the state in particular.
  • Miami and the South Florida region are less at risk from the worst of the winds, but other hazards like flooding, storm surge, and tornadoes persist. Again, the strongest winds of a hurricane in the northern hemisphere occur on the eastern side of the storm, which will impact the east coast of Florida.
  • Should the track of Irma inland but near the coast bear out, this would likely result in a slower decline in the hurricane’s strength. It would bring more risk of inland hurricane impacts to Georgia.

Forecast Track

Forecast Intensity

The National Hurricane Center forecast does call for some moderate re-intensification of Irma prior to landfall in Florida. This forecast calls for sustained winds of 140 mph prior to landfall. There are no inhibiting factors to the storm re-intensifying once it gets over open water. Wind shear is low. Sea surface temperatures are very warm.

Uncertainties

  • Internal fluctuations in the storm could still interrupt any re-strengthening.
  • On the other hand, there is a small chance for some rapid intensification if the storm gets organized again.
  • Since model forecasts haven’t changed since earlier today, this lends higher confidence to a track along the west coast of Florida.

 

 

Hurricane Irma Update – 9AM Sep 9, 2017

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Overnight, Irma made landfall on the Cuban Keys off the north shore of Cuba. Land interaction with Cuba has eroded Irma’s circulation to the point where it is now a marginal Category 4 storm containing 130 mph peak sustained winds. However, it would be unwise for anyone in Florida to dismiss this storm for reasons discussed below.

Current Situation

Irma has been downgraded to a marginal Category 4 storm with peak sustained winds at 130 mph. Despite only barely touching the Cuban coast, it’s clear from satellite imagery that land interaction has disrupted Irma’s circulation. The eye is no longer clearly visible. The western side of the storm looks ragged.

Headlines

  • Track forecasts continue to shift slightly westward from overnight. This lowers the risk for a direct hit by the eye of the storm in the Miami area. However, since the strongest winds in a hurricane in the northern hemisphere occur on the east side of the storm, Miami can still expect strong wind impacts.
  • Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the eye on each side. Tropical storm force winds are 400 miles in diameter with this massive storm.
  • The risk to the west coast of Florida continues to increase. Southwest Florida could see the worst storm surge with surge of 6-12′ forecast.
  • It is not out of the question that Tampa Bay could take a direct hit from the eye of this storm at Category 3 strength.
  • Irma could still re-intensify over the very warm waters of the Florida Straits once it moves away from Cuba.
  • Tornadoes in the bands of Irma as it moves north will pose a limited but dangerous threat.

Forecast Track

The high pressure over the central Atlantic that has steered Irma to this point continues to remain strong enough to keep it on west-northwest motion along the northern coast of Cuba. Based on this latest track forecast, it is possible that Tampa Bay takes a direct hit from Irma. Portions of the Florida Panhandle are also at increasing risk. This track also enhances the risk of inland impacts in Georgia and southeastern states.

Forecast Intensity

Irma has been weakened by interaction with the north coast of Cuba. It is now a marginal Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph. While some further weakening is possible, once Irma emerges over the very warm waters of the Florida Straits, weakening should cease. It could even re-intensify over these waters before making landfall. Keep in mind that Category 3 winds would still be very serious.

Uncertainties

  • Any further motion into Cuba would mean further degradation to the storm’s core and circulation which could result in more weakening.
  • There is a window for some possible re-strengthening over the Florida Straits.
  • An eyewall replacement cycle could still occur bringing fluctuations to the strength of the storm.
  • The exact timing of Irma’s turn north is still not certain. When it turns north will have large implications for who sees the worst direct wind impacts from the eye of the storm.