Category Archives: Weather Update

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 6, 2019

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An arctic front swings through today, bringing a blast of cold air behind it going into the weekend. Temperatures will rebound dramatically going into the start of next week with an approaching storm system turning winds to the south. We’ll see high temperatures going from the upper-30s to the mid-50s by Monday.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high temperature in the upper-40s. Chance of rain this evening with the passage of an arctic front. Overnight lows cooling into the low-30s with clearing skies.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds behind the arctic front bringing sunny skies but a much colder polar airmass with high temperatures struggling to hit 40ºF. Overnight lows drop into the mid-20s.

Sunday – high pressure center moves off to the east, allowing for warmer return flow from the south. This should allow temperatures to be a touch warmer than Saturday, in the low-40s. Overnight lows are expected to bottom out around 40ºF before actually rising due to an incoming storm system turning winds to the south.

GFS model output for 1PM Monday, a low-level jet at 850 mb with winds in excess of 40 knots is evident, along with pretty high values of relative humidity.

Monday – high temperatures continue to climb into the mid-50s with deep layer south-southwesterly winds. Increasing chances for rain as a cold front approaches from the west. Heavy rain is possible given a possible tropical moisture connection. Overnight lows barely moving into the low-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Dec 3, 2019

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A quiet, though colder than normal week lies ahead after the departure of Monday’s storm. This storm ended up not bringing the city much of any accumulating snow, though the story was quite different further north. High pressure settles in briefly before a weaker disturbance affects the area later in the week. An arctic front passes Friday, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold. Temperatures during this time will range in the low-40s.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. Winds diminishing as the low that hit us yesterday continues to pull away to the northeast. Overnight lows around the freezing mark.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Wednesday

Wednesday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Thursday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s, and overnight lows in the low-30s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for next week. A warm up is coming after this week of below normal cold.

Friday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s and overnight lows in the mid-20s behind the passage of a dry Arctic front.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 25, 2019

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Thanksgiving week starts off with warmer than average temperatures largely in the mid-50s ahead of an approaching storm that should impact the area Wednesday. Behind this storm, temperatures are forecast to drop back into the 40s. Thanksgiving Day will be dry, however, the low responsible for the mid-week storm will deepen as it exits the region, resulting in winds possibly strong enough to ground the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows heading down into the low-40s with mostly clear skies overnight.

GFS model 500 mb height anomalies, showing positive anomalies over much of the Northeast on Tuesday

Tuesday – southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front/storm system should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Wednesday – cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Chance of showers during the day and into the early overnight hours. Decreasing clouds overnight, with lows in the mid-40s and increasing winds.

GFS model output for 1000-500 mb heights, surface pressure, and precipitation

Thursday – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 50°F, winds should be quite breezy with a tight pressure gradient forming around the deepening and exiting low pressure center. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 15, 2019

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Seasonable temperatures to start the weekend won’t last as a cold front dives through and Canadian high pressure builds behind it Saturday. Cooler flow from the northeast will set up as the high sets up north of us and moves east. Winds will increase in intensity as an approaching coastal storm from the south leads to a tighter pressure gradient. This storm is currently tracking well offshore. However, we may still see some rain from the outer bands of the storm Monday. Aside from Saturday, temperatures will largely range 10-15°F lower than normal during this period.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows around 30°F with winds increasing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – with high pressure in control, we should see sunny conditions, but temperatures will be cooler with steady northeast winds of 20-25 mph. High temperatures around 40°F. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Sunday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-40s. Chances for rain possibly going overnight into Monday. Low temperatures in the upper-30s.

GFS model output for 7PM Monday, depicting a glancing blow from a coastal storm moving northeast well offshore of the area.

Monday – chances for showers with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Overnight lows around 40°F. Persistent northeast flow may lead to coastal flooding concerns.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 8, 2019

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Very cold temperatures kick off the weekend, followed by a return to milder temperatures. The reprieve is brief though, with the outlook for next week looking equally cold, especially on the heels of another storm system possibly impacting the region Monday night through Tuesday. Behind this, a reinforcing blast of cold air will reintroduce much below average temperatures to the region. High temperatures will start off ~15°F below normal for this time of year, the moderate to just a couple degrees below normal by Veterans Day.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, strong winds from the northwest ranging 25-35 mph with higher gusts. High temperatures only in the low-40s with this cold wind. Overnight lows may approach record lows, in the upper-20s. This will be aided by winds dying down and clearing skies as the high pressure center shown below continues to build and move closer to us. This should allow for potentially strong radiational cooling before dawn.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – very cold start to the day, temperatures will struggle to climb into the low-40s, close to the record coldest high temperatures for this time of year. The plus side will be calmer winds, eventually shifting to the southwest as the high pressure above moves off to the east. This should help “warm” things up a bit, with overnight lows recovering into the mid-30s.

Sunday – much warmer with high temperatures in the low-50s despite more cloud cover, both due the influence of southwesterly flow. Overnight lows warming into the mid-40s.

  • GFS model 2 meter above ground level temperature anomalies for 7AM Saturday
  • Corresponding GFS 500 mb heights, vorticity. Troughing at the mid-levels here will allow for the continued influx of cold air into the Eastern US. Note how the western US, which is under a 500 mb ridge is expected to experience above normal temperatures.
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Nov 13-17, showing a very high probability for continued colder than average conditions for much of the Eastern US.

Monday (Veterans Day) – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight, a system will approach from the west and could bring rain with lows bottoming out in the low-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 25, 2019

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This weekend starts off with fair and dry weather. A storm developing along the Gulf Coast of Texas, tracking north along the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Great Lakes, then east towards our area will bring a prolonged period of steady rain on Sunday. As of 11AM today, National Hurricane Center has designated this storm as Tropical Depression Seventeen. This storm should pull out of the area before the start of next week. Temperatures during this period should be at or above average for this time of the year in the low-mid 60s.

Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a cold front weakening, then stalling and returning north as a warm front. High temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with decreasing clouds as high pressure builds in.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds briefly and should give us mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with increasing clouds and chances for rain.

Sunday – much like last weekend, a storm with tropical origins will bring rain and lots of moisture to the area. The extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Seventeen will track north towards the Great Lakes during this period. A warm front attached to it will bring a shield of steady stratiform rain over the area. Mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-60s as winds turn to the south. Steady rain continuing into the early overnight hours until the storm’s trailing cold front finally sweeps through and drier air works in. Lows in the mid-50s.

  • NAM model output for relative humidity and wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the nearly saturated nature of the lower levels of the atmosphere.
  • NAM model output for wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the high wind speeds at this level, indicating the presence of an 850 mb low-level jet (LLJ)
  • NAM model output for precipitable water at 2PM Sunday. Note the high values above 1.50″. This makes sense, given the tropical origins of the storm that will impact us Sunday.
  • Projected track of Tropical Depression Seventeen

Monday – high pressure and calmer conditions return with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 18, 2019

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Soaking rains from Wednesday’s nor’easter have long since exited east, yet we will continue to feel the impact of this low with windy conditions to start the weekend. As the low continues moving east, an area of high pressure will build in and take its place. Winds will relax and we should enjoy a nice, sunny day for Saturday. Clouds are expected to build back in as a potential extratropical remnant low of what could become Subtropical Storm Nestor this weekend pass south of the region. Temperatures during this period are expected to be at or just below normal in the low-60s with a warm up going into next week.

Rest of today – windy conditions continue as the pressure gradient between a building area of high pressure to the west and the low that brought us rain Wednesday which is now over the Canadian Maritimes. High temperatures around 60°F with partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows expected to be quite cool, in the low-40s with skies looking to clear up and winds dying down – conditions that could lead to some strong radiational cooling.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in and gives us a sparkling, sunny, fall day with high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows milder around 50°F.

Sunday – although the extratropical remnants of what could be Subtropical Storm Nestor are forecast to pass well south of the area, this storm is expected to have a broad cloud shield to its north, and some outlying rain bands could even result in a couple scattered rain showers for the area. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the low-60s, because even with clouds, overall flow will be from the south. Overnight lows around 50°F again.

  • GOES satellite imagery of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen
  • National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast track guidance for this storm

Monday – with this low exiting east, we’ll see more southerly flow ahead of the next incoming storm system. High temperatures should respond by warmingin into the upper-60s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 14, 2019

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The week starts off with warm temperatures for this time of year, followed by entry of a cooler airmass. A storm system is forecast to bring rain mid-week. Temperatures will cool even more behind this storm with high temperatures dropping to slightly below normal levels in the low-60s by the end of the week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, with highs in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Tuesday – a dry cold front passes over the region later today, leading to cooler high temperatures in the low-60s for Tuesday on the back of colder northwest winds behind the front. It should be a sunny day. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Wednesday – a low pressure system over the Great Lakes will track east towards the area. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail with highs warming into the mid-60s due to a shift in winds to the south and southeast. Rain should start to overspread the area later in the afternoon and continue overnight. Overnight lows in the low-50s and even cooler possibly in the upper-40s. A secondary coastal low forming off the Carolina coast will become the primary low as energy transfers from the inland storm.

  • GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness and precipitation valid 2PM Wednesday
  • GFS model output of the same metrics for 2AM Thursday

Thursday – rain should clear out before the start of the day but winds will be breezy from the northwest. This will bring in cooler air again with high temperatures in the upper-50s and partly sunny skies. Overnight lows around 50°F.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 11, 2019

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The persistent storm off the Northeast US coast finally starts to move east. This storm has defied the odds, increasing in organization and intensity overnight, and has just been named Subtropical Storm Melissa. We will enjoy a spell of warming temperatures (from the low-60s into the low-70s) and dry weather leading into early next week as the region sits between the exiting storm and another strong low over the interior of North America. A couple of frontal boundaries will pass over, however, these will be starved of meaningful moisture and should not result in any rain.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s as winds start to shift to the north due to Subtropical Storm Melissa continuing to move to the east.

Satellite imagery of the incipient Subtropical Storm Melissa

Saturday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures warming to around 70°F. Winds will diminish as Subtropical Storm Melissa finally starts moving east. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

NAM model output for 500 mb heights and wind at 2PM Saturday. A significant closed upper-low, largely cut off from westerly steering currents, will be over the Upper Midwest. A slow-moving, strong occluded low will accompany this upper low at the surface. East of this, there will be some slight ridging, keeping our weather fair.

Sunday – a weakening cold front moves through, but with lack of appreciable moisture, there shouldn’t be any rain. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday, around 70°F, with m ore sunshine expected. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday (Columbus Day) – the cold front that moves through overnight into Sunday is expected to stall and become stationary. A surface low is forecast to form and move along this boundary near the coast, leading to increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight with lows dropping into the upper-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 8, 2019

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A distinct fall feel this week with grey skies the norm and spotty rain chances for many of the days. A coastal storm brewing off the Southeast coast is forecast to track north and then northeast. National Hurricane Center is tracking this system as it has some potential to acquire subtropical characteristics. This will be a slow moving storm that will bring a long period of northeasterly winds to the area.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper-60s. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday
  • The developing coastal storm depicted above.

Showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic between the southeastern coast of the United States and Bermuda are associated with a broad, non-tropical area of low pressure. This system is forecast to move northward or northeastward and could acquire some subtropical characteristics off the east coast of the United States by the end of the week.

National Hurricane Center

Wednesday – although the storm referenced is forecast to remain well offshore, outer rain bands from it could bring showers to the area along with persistent northeast winds. These wind are anticipated to be on the strong side, steadily in the mid-teens with gusts in the 25 mph range. Mostly cloudy with highs around 60°F. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Thursday – rain chances continue as the storm develops and becomes a closed low. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-60s. Winds will become blustery from the northeast around 15 mph with higher gusts. This will be due to the increasing pressure gradient between the deepening low and high pressure over eastern Quebec. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

GFS model output of 850 mb winds and relative humidity. The coastal storm continues to spin off the Northeast coast, although its center remains well offshore (just above the pivotalweather logo in this frame).

Friday – rain still lingers though the storm starts to finally make some eastward progress as a trough approaches from the west. High temperature remain in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows in the upper-50s as warmer southerly flow starts to work into the region.