Category Archives: Weather Update

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather & Hurricane Dorian Update – Aug 30, 2019

Cool Images, NYC, Rain, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , ,

Labor Day weekend is shaping up to be a good one overall in terms of sensible weather. A dry cold front passage today sets the stage for high pressure to take control over the remainder of the weekend. The only wrinkle is a warm front forecast to pass Monday that could bring some rain. Looking ahead into next week, a warm up should precede another cold front mid-week. The big weather story this weekend will be much further south of us, as Hurricane Dorian takes aim at Florida as a dangerous Category 4 storm.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Saturday – high pressure starts to build from the west, which will result in a cooler weather with northerly winds. High temperatures topping out in the low-80s with lots of sun and overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Sunday – high pressure will progress east, giving us another pleasant day with lots of sun and comfortable temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows warm up in the upper-60s with a warm front approaching from the southwest.

Monday (Labor Day) – chance for rain during the day as a warm front, then a weakening cold front approach. High temperatures in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

Hurricane Dorian Heading Towards Florida

Over the course of the last few days, Hurricane Dorian made a pass over the Northern Lesser Antilles, hitting the Virgin Islands, and Martinique, but sparing Puerto Rico. This was a blessing for an island still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Maria. However, because Dorian avoided the disruptive influence of high terrain in Puerto Rico, it entered the open waters of the Western Atlantic north of the island ready for continued intensification. Unfortunately, various forecast models have been consistently depicting Dorian making landfall somewhere in Florida early next week as a dangerous Category 4 hurricane packing max sustained winds of 140 mph.

Latest GOES visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Dorian

Overnight going into today, Dorian’s been steadily strengthening and is now showing a markedly more symmetrical structure than before, along with an eye developing in visible satellite imagery. This suggests that the southerly shear and dry air that was afflicting the storm yesterday has abated somewhat. At this point, there is nothing really stopping Dorian from continuing to strengthen to a major hurricane.

National Hurricane Center official forecast for Dorian as of 11AM Friday

Forecasters continue to have high confidence that Dorian will make a turn towards a more westerly direction as high pressure builds over Bermuda and keeps building to the west. This will block Dorian from taking a northerly route away from Florida. Worryingly, forecast models have trended towards a slower and more southerly track overnight, then a turn north after landfall. On this current track, a large part of Florida would be affected by the storm for a considerable amount of time, increasing the risk of damaging storm surge and inland flooding from prolonged heavy rain.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 27, 2019

NYC, Rain, Severe Weather, Storms, Thunderstorms, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, , , , , ,

A mid-week cold front brings a chance for rain as temperatures warm towards the end of the week. Tropical Depression Six (which could become Tropical Storm Erin) could impact local beaches with high surf for Labor Day weekend.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-60s. Some chance for light rain in the overnight hours.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday

Wednesday – high temperatures in the low-80s, with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday – clearing skies with highs in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Friday – high temperatures remain in the mid-80s, overnight lows in the upper-60s as high pressure builds in briefly.

A Note on the Tropics

A week ago, there was talk about how this month could play out to be one of the few Augusts on record that had no tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic. That calm has been quickly shattered by the development of two tropical systems: Tropical Storm Dorian and Tropical Depression Six, which may become Tropical Storm Erin. While TD Six won’t impact the US directly, it could bring large swells and waves to beaches along the Northeast this weekend. Dorian, on the other hand, is an imminent threat to Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and could cause problems for Florida this weekend into early next week.

  • tropical depression six 2019
    GOES East satellite image of Tropical Depression Six
  • GOES East satellite image of Tropical Storm Dorian

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 23, 2019

NYC, Rain, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , ,

After a week of hot, humid weather and several bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms, we will finally get a break from both the heat and the rain just in time to enjoy the weekend. Behind a cold front that’s slowly pushing south, high pressure will build in and usher in a Canadian polar airmass that will bring a noticeable change to high temperatures – 10ºF cooler in most cases. Rain chances return late in the weekend period.

Rest of today – showers associated with a wave of low pressure moving along the cold front that passed last night should end by noon. Mostly cloudy with gradual clearing. High temperatures in the upper-70s and overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NAM (North American Model) forecast for 2 meter above ground level temperature Saturday at 2PM

Saturday – mostly sunny, high temperatures in the upper-70s, noticeably drier feel with dew points much lower than the past few days with Canadian high pressure taking over. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Sunday – below average temperatures continue with high temperatures in the mid-70s. By this time, the high pressure center will have shifted to the northeast and will thus enable cooler, more moist onshore flow to influence the weather. We should see more clouds and could even see some scattered rain showers. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday – high temperatures in the upper-70s with partly sunny or mostly cloudy skies. An area of low pressure (which could become a tropical depression this weekend) off of Florida will track along the East Coast and should at the very least bring cloudier weather. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 19, 2019

NYC, Rain, Severe Weather, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, , , , , ,

We begin this week with some typical “dog days” of summer heat. Shower and thunderstorm chances stick around for the first half of the week with the heat and humidity providing necessary instability. A more organized threat for possibly severe thunderstorms emerges Wednesday into Thursday with a pronounced cold front forecast to move through. Behind this frontal boundary, a refreshingly cool and dry air mass is expected to take hold for the weekend.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the low-90s. Heat index values in the upper-90s. Partly cloudy with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon around 5-6PM as a prefrontal trough nears. Some storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Tuesday – still hot but a touch drier, as a cold front pushes south overnight into Tuesday. High temperatures around 90°F. Could maybe see a scattered thunderstorm still pop up but chances are lower relative to today with less humidity and instability to work with. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Wednesday – the cold front passing through Tuesday lifts back north as a warm front on Wednesday. Temperatures remain warm in the upper-80s. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms possible late in the day as a cold front pushes through. If this front pushes through faster than forecast, in the late afternoon or early evening, there’s better chances for strong storms. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms could continue overnight with lows in the mid-70s.

Thursday – should be the last day of this spell of summer heat with high temperatures in the upper-80s possible before the cold front above clears the area. Showers and thunderstorms may linger until the front clears. Overnight lows noticeably cooler in the upper-60s behind the cold front as a cooler Canadian air mass moves through.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 16, 2019

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , ,

A stationary front stalled out southeast of the city over the Mid-Atlantic will be the primary agent responsible for an extended period of humid, cloudy, and unstable weather over the weekend. As was the case last weekend, temperatures will be on an upward trend from the low-80s into the low-90s by the start of next week.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms particularly closer to higher terrain north and west of the city. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – more clouds than sun with the stationary front just south of the area. Continued onshore easterly flow behind north of this stationary front will keep things cooler and humid. High temperatures in the low-80s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop again in the afternoon hours with an unstable airmass (due to the high moisture content caused by the onshore flow) as heating increases. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Sunday – temperatures begin to warm up into the upper-80s as winds shift towards the south. The stationary front attempts to move north as a warm front but high pressure is forecast to develop west of us and block this northwards advance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

GFS model 2 meter above ground level temperature, 10 meter above ground level wind forecast for 2PM Monday

Monday – with winds shifting to towards the southwest, much warmer air will advect into the region. High temperatures expected to top out in the low-90s with overnight lows in the upper-70s. Mostly sunny skies forecast with the high pressure building.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 11, 2019

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , ,

Unsettled weather takes hold during the mid-week period as a couple prefrontal disturbances affect the area. The focus for heavier rain will be later Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Behind this cold front, conditions should improve and result in a pleasant, dry weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a shortwave trough lingers around the area. Temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday
Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Tuesday

Tuesday – shaping up to be an eventful day in regards to weather. Temperatures should rise into the low-80s with overnight lows in the low-70s. During the day, a mesoscale convective system (organized large cluster of thunderstorms) will be approaching the area from the Ohio Valley. Forecast is uncertain in terms of where the frontal boundaries in the vicinity of this MCS eventually set up. Current thinking is that we end up south of a warm front earlier in the day that will serve as the initial focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. This activity should continue and increase in intensity as the frontal boundary starts shifting south and encounters warm, moist and unstable air. There is potential for all severe hazards including hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

Wednesday – mostly cloudy with shower chances diminishing later in the day . High temperatures in the low-80s and lows in the upper-60s.

Thursday – still a possibility for lingering showers but overall a better day with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the low-80s with overnight lows in the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 9, 2019

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , ,

A couple stormy nights in the city the last couple days will give way to a superb weekend of mostly sunny skies and warm, but comfortable temperatures. High pressure will remain in control over the region’s weather going into next week. The next chance for significant precipitation won’t enter the picture until mid-week next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures ranging 84-87°F. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm later this afternoon with a weak disturbance pivoting through at the upper-levels. Forecasters cite the lack of any significant convective inhibition so storms could pretty easily get going, however, moisture content isn’t all that great. Overnight lows should be mild in upper-60s.

HRRR model simulated radar for 4:45PM today

Saturday – with a cold front passing today, we’ll have cooler temperatures tomorrow, high temperatures reaching only into the low-80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows cooling into the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Sunday – just another beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows starting to warm back up into the upper-60s.

Monday – temperatures will warm back up as the high pressure center shifts east, and we get the warmer southerly, and westerly return flow. We should see high temperatures in upper-80s and overnight lows in the low-70s.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 6, 2019

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , ,

Unsettled weather takes hold during the mid-week period as a couple prefrontal disturbances affect the area. The focus for heavier rain will be later Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Behind this cold front, conditions should improve and result in a pleasant, dry weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a shortwave trough lingers around the area. Temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday

Wednesday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Heavy rain possible especially later in the day with a cold front approaching. With a moist air mass in place, some thunderstorms that pop up could produce heavy downpours and localized flooding. Rain could continue overnight in more isolated form. Lows in the low-70s.

Thursday – brief subsidence behind the cold front that passes through Thursday should result in calmer weather and warmer temperatures with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Before that happens though, rain and thunderstorms can still pop up. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 temperature outlook valid Aug 11 – Aug 15 (this Sunday into next week)

Friday – cooler, sunny, with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows cooling into the upper-60s as Canadian high pressure begins to build.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 12, 2019

NYC, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , ,

After last night’s rains, we’ll see high pressure builds over there weekend. This will lead to mostly sunny and warm weather for the forecast period. A dry cool front passing Sunday won’t do much to cool things off. Instead, temperatures will continue an upwards trend into next week. It remains to be seen what sensible impacts the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry could have for us late next week.

Rest of today – warm, with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures in the upper-80s despite the cold front passing due to warning influence of downsloping westerly winds. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Saturday – could see some high temperatures and sunny skies in the low-90s in denser urban areas away from the coast. Otherwise most areas in the upper-80s except at the immediate coast where a sea breeze should develop. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Sunday – mostly sunny with highs similar to Saturday in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Looking ahead into the medium range, 6-10 day Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for 7/17-7/27. Much of the country including our area looks set to see above average warmth.

Monday – yet another day of mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-upoer 80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 8, 2019

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, , , , ,

As with last week, high pressure will play a big role in sensible weather this week. Rain chances are going to be limited to later this week when a frontal system moves across the area. Temperatures will be warm to start in the upper-80s then cool off later in the week back into the mid-80s.

Rest of today – early showers move through then we’ll see gradual clearing. Temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Tuesday – much warmer with temperatures in the upper-80s, and lots of sun with high pressure building and taking over. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – continued warmth with highs again in the upper-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation valid for Thursday 8PM

Thursday – clouds increasing late with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms late and going into the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the low-70s.