The slow-moving storm system that brought us heavy rain overnight last Friday into Saturday continues to linger off the coast of the Northeast, finally exiting by tomorrow. Rain chances will exist today, but give way to better conditions tomorrow. More rain is possible overnight into Wednesday, before drier weather works its way in on Thursday.
Rest of today – cloudy, with an increasing chance for showers in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 4:45 PM today
Tuesday – with this low finally exiting, we should see a sunny day with temperatures warming into the low-70s. The sunny weather doesn’t last, as clouds increase overnight and rain is possible. Lows in the mid-50s.
Wednesday – conditions should improve after the morning hours, when the cold front that produces the rain chances overnight into Wednesday moves offshore. High temperatures should rebound nicely into the upper-60s. Overnight lows will be cooler in the low-50s behind this cold front.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday
Thursday – high pressure should take over and result in a sunny day with high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows going into Friday in the low-50s.
A slow-moving storm system will impact the area with potentially heavy rain that could trigger flash flooding overnight into the first part of Saturday. Precipitation chances die down significantly with the passage of this round of rain as a dry slot works into the area. However, lingering chances for showers still exist as this storm makes a slow exit to the east. Temperatures during this period are forecast to be at or above normal.
Rest of today – cloudy, but still warm with temperatures rising to about 70°F. We will be in the warm sector with the influence of southerly winds during the day. Rain chances increasing during the evening hours. Steady rain is forecast late into the overnight hours with temperatures. Some of the rain could be heavy. Thunderstorms are also possible, and these would increase the risk of flash flooding. Overnight lows around 60°F.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday
Saturday – the north-south orientation of the cold front that will provide lift for these storms overnight will align well with the prevailing southerly flow through most of the atmosphere. The slow eastward progression of this front will allow storm cells to train leading to more flooding potential as rain continues Saturday morning. The cold front associated with this slow-moving low should push through by the afternoon. A dry slot should cut off any precipitation for a while during this time frame. High temperatures should be in the low-60s. Overnight lows should fall into the low-50s behind the cold front.
GFS model output of 850 mb winds and relative humidity for 2PM Saturday, notice the pronounced area of browns, indicating very dry air. This is what is referred to as a “dry slot“, which can often follow on the heels of cold fronts associated with mature mid-latitude cyclones.
Sunday – the upper low associated with this storm system is expected to cutoff (become detached from primary westerly steering currents), resulting in a system that will meander and take a long while to exit the region. As such, Sunday is expected to remain cloudy, with a chance for some showers. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the low-60s. Overnight lows will again be around the low-50s.
Monday – temperatures warming up into the upper-60s, but yes, that cutoff low still lingers! Chance for showers continues in the morning. Clouds finally decreasing later and overnight lows in the mid-50s.
The same storm system that impacted the Deep South this weekend with severe weather, including several tornadoes that caused fatalities, swept through the area overnight. Some severe wind gusts were reported, and area transit networks experienced some delays due to storm-related damage. As this storm departs east, it will continue deepening, resulting in strong winds the remainder of today. Another storm system is forecast to move in to the region Thursday and going into the weekend. Temperatures during the week are expected to be mostly around normal for this time of year.
Rest of today – windy, with decreasing cloud cover. Steady west winds between 20-30 mph later in the day. This will help bring colder air into the area, with highs already peaking this morning in the low-60s then dropping back to the mid-50s by this afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies.
Tuesday – sunny day, with winds calming and seasonable high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s and mostly cloudy.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday
Wednesday – increasing clouds as a backdoor cold front works its way through. High temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight, mostly cloudy with lows in the mid-40s.
Thursday – chance of rain as a low tracks slowly from the Plains to the Great Lakes. East of this low, a slow moving warm front could touch off showers during the day and overnight Thursday. High temperatures around 60°F, overnight lows quite mild due to the influence of the approaching warm front and warm advection, in the low-50s.
Two distinct storms will affect weather in the area this weekend going into next week. The first is the remnant of the once mighty “bomb” cyclone that brought an abrupt return of winter conditions to the northern Plains states and Upper Midwest. The second will be a storm developing over Texas that could be a severe weather threat down South. Neither should result in a washout as the bulk of precipitation associated with these storms is timed to fall later in the day or overnight. Temperatures will be largely above normal during this period.
Rest of today – cloudy with chance of drizzle early. High temperatures around 60°F. Overnight lows in the mid-50s. Winds are forecast to turn to the south ahead of an anticipated cold front and in the wake of a warm front passing. Rain should accompany this frontal passage overnight.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Saturday
Saturday – warm day in store with highs reaching into the low-70s despite mostly cloudy skies as the cold front passing overnight is forecast to stall and become stationary during the day. Overnight lows in the mid-50s again.
Sunday – shower chances increase as the next storm approaches. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the low-60s due to clouds and rain. A second, more vigorous cold front is forecast to pass overnight into Monday. Rain, heavy at times, possibly with thunderstorms as overnight lows fall into the mid-50s.
GFS model output for 8PM Sunday
Monday – rain associated with this second storm should clear out around lunchtime. Cloudy day forecast now, but could see more breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures in the upper-60s.
Summer-like warmth has given way to more seasonable temperatures for this time of the year. The return to normal temperatures will be accompanied by the possibility of rain. Later in the week, temperatures will climb back up again as we are forecast to be back in the warm sector of another approaching storm. This storm should bring some rain Friday and overnight into Saturday, resulting in what should be a decent weekend
Rest of today – mostly cloudy, temperatures in the upper-50s to around 60ºF. Increasing chance for showers later this evening, around 6PM when a line of showers accompanying a cold front is expected to hit the area. Overnight lows behind this front will be much cooler than last night, in the mid-40s.
High resolution rapid refresh simulated 1-km radar for 6PM tonight
Wednesday – should be a nice day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will be cool, around 40ºF.
Thursday – cool start to the day results in high temperatures around the mid-50s with mostly sunny skies and increasing clouds. Overnight lows climbing into the upper-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Friday. Note that we’ll be in the warm sector of this storm for a good part of the day.
Friday – warmer, with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Chances for rain increasing later in the day with a cold front forecast to be approaching from the west. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
A cool start to the weekend should give way to a nice couple of days before another storm moves in to start next week. During this period, high temperatures will start well below normal, then rise above average before finally settling around average. Looking ahead, another storm system appears to impact the area late next week, bringing a colder weekend next week in its wake.
Rest of today – cool, cloudy with high temperatures only in the mid-40s. Increasing rain chances towards the evening and overnight hours. Rain should taper off overnight then we should see overnight lows stabilize in the low-40s as warm advection takes hold.
Saturday – clouds diminishing as the low responsible for the rain moves over the Atlantic to our south. High temperatures in the mid-60s, maybe a touch warmer if we see clouds break earlier than forecast. Overnight lows milder in the upper-40s.
Weather Prediction surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – high pressure stays in control and gives us a pleasant, mild day with high temperatures in the low-60s. The high pressure and nice weather doesn’t stick around long though, with another storm system approaching during the overnight hours going into Monday. Overnight lows should hold around 50ºF as rain starts to fall.
Monday – despite clouds and rain sticking around, temperatures will surge to about 70°F with a warm front forecast to pass through.
High pressure gives way to a be coastal storm that will sideswipe the area. Following this, we’ll see a brief warm up, but temperatures will cool off towards the end of the week. We have rain chances overnight into tomorrow and Friday night.
Rest of today – high temperatures around 50°F. Increasing clouds ahead of a coastal approaching from the south. Overnight, chance of rain with low temperatures around 40°F.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday, depicting a coastal storm passing us to the southeast.
Wednesday – winds increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. High temperatures warming into the low-60s be with clouds dissipating and winds shifting to the southwest. Overnight lows drop back into the low-40s behind the passage of a dry cold front. Winds will shift to a colder northwesterly direction.
Thursday – cooler with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-50s. Low temperatures colder in the upper-30s.
Friday – another low approaches from the southwest. High temperatures below average in the mid-40s, rain chances increase later in the day with the low pressure drawing closer. Rain chances continue into the overnight hours with lows in the low-40s.
We will have a warm though not too sunny start to the weekend. A solid chance for rain hits Sunday with the passage of a cold front. After that, temperatures will drop to below normal levels again. Looking ahead into next week, there should be a dry start to the week but a coastal storm may impact the area mid-week. There’s some outside chances for snow with this storm.
Rest of today – cloudy, with some chance of light rain though most rain should remain over interior. With southwesterly flow, despite clouds we should still reach into the upper-50s to 60°F. A cold front approaching from the west is forecast to stall out and acquire semi-stationary characteristics. Thanks to the continued influence of high pressure off to our east, we should stay mostly dry today. Overnight lows should be warm, near 50ºF.
Saturday – the warmth continues, with high temperatures forecast to reach well into the upper-60s though clouds will still linger around with the stationary front to our west. Overnight lows will be similar to tonight around 50ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – the stalled frontal boundary finally picks up forward momentum and pushes through the area as a cold front. Ahead of it, temperatures will still be mild in the mid-50s. A line of showers is expected with this front during the day. Overnight lows behind this cold front will be considerably colder, in the low-30s.
Monday – dry, sunny weather, but with a chilly start to the day, temperatures are expected to only be in the upper-40s to near 50ºF, slightly below normal. Overnight lows are expected in the mid-30s.
This week’s weather features the prominent impact of a slow moving, strong area of high pressure over the region. That translates to calm, generally sunny conditions with a warm up towards the end of the week as the high slides east and we end up in a milder southwesterly flow on its western edge.
Rest of today – sunny but with cool northerly winds, we will remain below average with highs in the upper-40s and overnight lows in the low-30s
Wednesday – once again we have a cooling influence this time with northeast onshore winds that will keep temperatures below normal in the mid-40s with sunny conditions. Overnight lows again in the low-30s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday
Thursday – as the high pressure moves east of us, we see a shift in winds to the south. This should result in high temperatures right around average in the mid-50s. Should be comfortable spring weather for the Yankees home opener with a light wind blowing from right to left field. This is a welcome contrast from last year, when snow postponed the home opener! Overnight lows will be milder also in the mid-40s
Friday – the warm up continues with high temperatures kicking above normal in the low-60s. It appears the limiting factor for temperatures will be increasing clouds ahead of a cold front. Overnight lows in the upper-40s
A long duration Nor’easter slowly moves its way eastwards. Conditions improve during the second half of the weekend. A brief warmup to above average temperatures takes place. This doesn’t last, with another cold front passing through to start next week. Tomorrow, keep an eye out on the skies for a possible glimpse at the aurora borealis, typically not visible at these latitudes.
Rest of today – chance for rain shower diminishing as the center of a slow moving Nor’easter continues to progress northeast. High temperatures reaching around 50ºF. Winds will increase on the backside of this departing low overnight. Winds will shift towards the northwest as well, bringing in colder air and overnight lows in the mid-30s.
GOES East satellite loop of the storm system affecting the NortheastOcean Prediction Center surface analysis for the Atlantic Basin. A strong blocking high is inhibiting the forward progress of the Nor’easter impacting our area. This is leading to a long duration coastal flooding and wind event.
Saturday – decreasing clouds as the low above continues progressing northeast slowly. Winds will increase as this low continues to deepen and the pressure gradient builds between it and and area of high pressure further west. Steady winds in the 20-25 mph range with gusts as high as 40 mph are forecast. High temperatures will be a bit below normal as a result in the upper-40s. Overnight lows will be cold, in the mid-30s with clear skies.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday, still showing a tight pressure gradient between a high over the Ohio Valley and the departing Nor’easter
Sunday – temperatures rebound into the mid-50s as an area of high pressure builds and slides off to our southeast, and winds turn towards the southwest bringing in warmer air. Sunny skies – this will be the best day of the weekend.
Monday – another cold front approaches from the west and brings a possibility for rain. Temperatures ahead of this front should reach into the low-50s. Behind this, we’ll get another shot of cold air, with temperatures dropping overnight into the low-30s.
Northern Lights Possibly Visible from NYC
On Tuesday, The Space Weather Prediction Center (it exists!) detected a large Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with a potent solar flare. As a result, they have issued a moderate geomagnetic storm watch for Saturday, March 23. Of note, the belt where the charged particles from this CME would impact the Earth’s upper atmosphere and result in an aurora quite a bit further south than where the northern lights are typically visible. In fact, they may even be visible from NYC, although it may be hard to see them due to light pollution.
