Category Archives: Weather Update

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 10, 2017

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An eventful week of weather continues into the weekend, though not to the same degree of intensity. We will see another chance for snow, as well as rain this weekend. Temperatures rebound back to around or slightly above normal for the weekend. Looking ahead, there are some signals at another possible strong storm a couple weeks out, but it’s much to early to be certain.

Rest of today – cold, windy, sunny with areas of blowing snow. High temperatures below normal around 30ºF. Wind chills in the teens. Overnight tonight, we could pick up a light coating of fresh snow from a fast moving, and relatively weak storm system.

Below are some reported snowfall totals from yesterday’s coastal storm. As you’ll see, there was a fairly sharp cutoff between areas that received 9″ or more of snow. Long Island, Connecticut, and parts of the Hudson Valley got the largest totals. This was largely due to the fact that the most intense bands of heavy snow spent more time parked over these areas than it did in the city.

Saturday – conditions improving, along with warmer temperatures in the mid-40s under mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday – another storm system moves in from the Ohio Valley. This will bring a mixture of precipitation to the Northeast. Luckily, with high temperatures in the low-40s, we will see all rain.

Monday – winds pick up behind the departure of the storm system above, and skies should clear up as well. Temperatures should again be in the low-40s.

 

NYC Snowstorm Update – Feb 08, 2017

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We’re in for a wild ride over the course of the next 24 hours as our weather goes from possibly record-breaking warmth to what is expected to be the most significant winter storm so far this season. Significant snow accumulations over 6″ and possibly as much as a foot are expected across the region, resulting in a winter storm warning for all of the NYC metro region.

 

Timing

Judging by the amount of sun we’re getting, temperatures will likely hit record-breaking levels in the low-60s in the city today. They will drop steadily to around 50ºF by the evening commute as a cold front pushes through and Arctic air flows in from the north. Overnight, temperatures will continue falling rapidly to around freezing. Precipitation is expected to begin around 3-4AM Thursday here in the city and continue through the early afternoon. Unfortunately, the timing of the heaviest precipitation does look to bring significant impacts to the morning commute.

North American High Resolution simulated radar 1km resolution, tomorrow at 8AM.

 

Impacts

Rain/snow mix to start, but by the morning rush, expecting all snow through the region. Heavy snow at times possibly reaching 1-2″/hr. Some thundersnow could occur. Hazardous travel conditions during the morning rush as plows will have trouble keeping roads clear with traffic and the moderate to heavy snow. Gusty winds could produce near-blizzard conditions with low visibility.

 

Snowfall Totals

Here are some graphics for snowfall totals from our local National Weather Service Forecast office. The general forecast calls for 6″-12″ in the city. The exact extent of totals will depend, as is generally the case with this type of storm, on where the heaviest snow bands set up and for how long they sit over an any given area.

Probabilities for 4″+ and 6″+ of snow respectively

 

Discussion

An shortwave that’s made its way rapidly across the country from the Pacific will move along the cold front that is pushing through today. As it does so, it will spawn a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic that will strengthen rapidly as it moves over open water. At the same time, plenty of cold air will wrap around the deepening coastal low with high pressure to the west. This will put in place all the ingredients for a classic coastal winter storm for this area. The only thing keeping this storm from being a major blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 2 feet is the fairly quick pace that it’s expected to move at.

This coastal storm will drive the expected heavy snows tomorrow. Its track is expected to take it just outside the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, a spot that from a climatological perspective has translated to heavy snow storms for this region.

 

NYC Weather Update – Feb 06, 2017

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The weather story of this week will be some wild temperature swings as we encounter two storm systems Wednesday and Thursday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny to clear skies with high temperatures topping out in the low-40s.

Tuesday – temperatures start to warm up with an approaching warm front. A low pressure system north of us will pull lots of warm, moist air ahead of it as it moves through the region. High temperatures are expected to hit the low-50s with periods of rain throughout the day.

Wednesday – overnight, temperatures will actually rise due to the influence of warm air flowing into the area following the passage of the aforementioned warm front. Rain should end by the morning commute, giving us a chance to break some record high temperatures in the area. High temperatures are expected to range in the upper-50s to the low-60s with any significant breaks of sun.

Thursday – the warmup does not last. As the low pressure system above continues to track northeast across Quebec, a secondary low pressure center will form along a trailing cold front attached to this first low. High temperatures will only be in the low-30s, almost 30ºF cooler than Wednesday. Overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, it should get cold enough for the secondary low pressure center to spark some accumulating snows in the city. Snowfall totals are expected to be light, 1-3″ max in the city.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 03, 2017

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The weekend starts of with a chill and below average temperatures before a warmup. Temperatures will be above average for the second half of the week. Next chance for precipitation will come with a storm system moving in Tuesday. Looking ahead, expecting that Punxsutaney will be right, and there will be a cooldown again.

Rest of today – clouds decrease slowly. Chilly with high temperatures struggling to hit freezing. Brisk northwest winds will keep windchills below 20ºF.

Saturday – with strong high pressure over the Ohio Valley, we’ll see clear skies. However, since we will be on the east side of this high pressure center, cold air will continue to flow in from Canada, keeping high temperatures at around freezing.

Sunday – as this high pressure moves east, and we end up on the west side of it, clockwise flow around it will bring warmer are to the area, and temperatures will rebound into the low-40s with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday – above average temperatures in the low-40s continue with partly cloudy skies.

 

Drought Improves

Recent beneficial rains and snows have improved the drought situation statewide. However, moderate to severe drought continues to plague the downstate region.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 30, 2017

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As we open February, temperatures will be appropriately cold and seasonable for this time of year. We have a chance for some light snow accumulation Tuesday with a passing clipper system. Looking into the long-term, some forecast models are indicating the possibility of a couple coastal storms that could be snowmakers next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures peaking in the mid-30. Steady northwest wind around 15mph will produce wind chills below freezing.

Tuesday – high again in the mid-30s, but with snow expected in particular in the afternoon hours with an advancing clipper system and cold front. Snow accumulations are not expected to exceed 1 inch at this time.

Wednesday – brief rebound in temperatures into the mid-40s, with skies beginning to clear during the day.

Thursday – temperatures drop back to seasonable levels in the mid-30s.

 

More Significant Snows Ahead?

Looking ahead at Monday after the Superbowl, there appears to be a chance for a more significant snowmaker in the form of a coastal low. The forecast on this will become more clear as the week draws to a close.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 27, 2017

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The weekend period will see a gradual return to seasonably cold temperatures, a departure from the long stretch of above normal warmth we’ve seen the last week or so. A series of weak disturbances will move through the area, but these are not expected to bring much in the way of precipitation.

Rest of today – breezy with west winds of 20mph. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-40s. A weak disturbance brings a chance of snow flurries, but no accumulation is expected.

Saturday (Lunar New Year) – still above normal with high temperatures in the mid-40s and partly sunny. Not as windy as today, but with a strong low located over Labrador, westerly winds in the 15-20mph range will persist.

Sunday – high temperatures start to fall back to around 40°F. More clouds than sun.

Monday – colder, with high temperatures in the upper-30s and partly sunny skies.

Drought Update

The 1-2″ of rain we picked up during this past week’s Nor’easter, while beneficial, did little to change the drought picture as compared to last week.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 23, 2017

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Main weather headline to start the week will be a potent and slow-moving coastal storm bringing a variety of hazards to the region later today through tomorrow morning. This storm is the same one responsible for this weekend’s deadly tornado outbreak down south. Conditions improve dramatically towards mid-week.

Rest of today – a flood watch, coastal flood advisories, and high wind warning are in effect mostly through tomorrow morning. Cloudy with high temperatures steady around 40°F. Winds continue to increase throughout the day as a strengthening coastal low approaches and the pressure gradient between it and a high pressure center over Quebec tightens. A low-level jet will enhance winds. Sustained east and northeast winds of 30-40mph with gusts between 50-60mph will become commonplace late today and overnight. The strongest winds will occur closest to the coast.

Along with the strong winds, periods of heavy rain will bring the potential for 1-3″ of precipitation, which could lead to minor to moderate urban and small stream flooding. Timing of the onset of rain will be around 3pm this afternoon.

The persistent and strong northeast winds off the water will contribute to minor to moderate coastal flooding. This will be exacerbated during a couple of high tide cycles.

High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar output for 3PM this afternoon
The storm approaching spans the better portion of the entire East Coast

Tuesday – rain and wind abate during the day, tapering off by the afternoon. High temperatures about the same as today in the low-40s.

Wednesday – as the coastal storm continues to pull away, temperatures rebound and mostly sunny skies return. High temperatures anticipated around 50ºF.

Thursday – another nice day with high temperatures in the upper-40s and mostly sunny skies.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 20, 2017

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We get a round of light rain late today and overnight. Temperatures warm up Saturday, then moderate Sunday as a storm system approaches from the southwest. Temperatures will remain above normal as this storm system looks set to bring soaking rains Sunday and Monday.

Rest of today – cloudy, with light rain arriving around 3PM and lasting till about midnight. Temperatures will drop from the mid-40s to low-40s overnight.

Saturday – warm, mostly cloudy, with high temperatures in the mid-50s.

Sunday – chances for rain increase in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy otherwise with a high in the upper-40s.

Monday – a low pressure system will be moving off the shore of North Carolina and Virginia. With this strengthening low and a high pressure center over Quebec, a tightening pressure gradient will build resulting in steady and increasing winds. Rain and wind will be constant on Monday with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Drought Update

Recent storms have brought beneficial rains and snows to the region, but a drought continues, especially in the downstate area. This next storm should continue to help alleviate the drought here.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 13, 2016

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The beginning of the weekend will be marked by a return to seasonable temperatures after the warm spell we just experienced. Temperatures moderate for the second half of the weekend reach back into above normal territory to start next week.

Rest of today – temperatures dropping from the mid-40s into the mid-20s overnight. Clouds increase as a frontal system far to our south begins to influence our weather.

Saturday – high temperatures only in the low-mid 30s. A small chance of snow in the afternoon though we’re really only on the fringe of the area of influence of a largely stationary front far to our south. Mostly cloudy skies otherwise.

Sunday – skies clear and temperatures rise back up to around 40ºF. High pressure continues to build and move east, allowing winds to turn to the south and southwest bringing warmer air our way.

Monday (MLK Day) – should be a pleasant day for anyone who’s out volunteering on this holiday. Sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 10, 2017

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The latter half of this week will bring welcome relief from a period of below average temperatures. Temperatures will rise well into the 50s by the end of the week. Winter returns for the weekend as temperatures fall back to seasonal levels.

Rest of today – there are some light snow showers far west of the city. Some of this might make it to the city, with a chance for snow and wintry mix and a high around 40ºF.

Wednesday – overnight, temperatures barely drop, while a storm system moves through. A chance of wintery mix transitions to all rain by daybreak. Rain ends by the early morning hours and

Thursday – a second storm system moves through Wednesday night into Thursday, with high temperatures rising well into the mid-50s. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail.

Friday – more clouds than sun, with high temperatures dropping back a bit to about 50ºF.