Record setting cold this weekend that led to rare May snows will feel like another life time by the end of this week when temperatures will soar to near or above 80ºF. A general warming trend will take place until then, bookended by rain chances today and Friday due to a couple passing storms.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with hig temperatures in the upper-50s. A fast moving storm could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-40s as skies clear.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.
Tuesday – sunny high pressure building, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
Wednesday – high pressure steadily moves east, bringing another day of sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 16-20, finally, it looks like we get a break from below normal temperatures!
Thursday– high temperatures warm into the mid-60s with high pressure still in control giving us mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
April ended with another stormy week with plenty of rain. May starts of grey Friday, followed by a spectacular day Saturday. Rain enters the picture again Sunday. Behind this next storm system, things will cool off again. This will lead temperatures to continue their cool trend throughout most of next week. During this period high temperatures will range at least 5ºF below the upper-60s that are normal for this time of the year.
Rest of today – the slow moving storm that began impacting us yesterday continues to influence weather today. Scattered showers wrapping around the backside of the low responsible for this storm could still occur. Temperatures should generally be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-50s as the storm finally exits.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday
Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this storm, bringing the best day of the frorecast period with high temperatures expected to top out around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Sunday – just like last weekend, the sunny, dry weather barely lasts before the next storm moves in. This will be a weaker, and faster moving storm so rain should be on the lighter side. Currently expecting most of the day Sunday to be dry with clouds building and high temperatures still warm in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Monday– once this low clears our region, winds shift to the north and a cooler air mass works its way in. Skies clear with temperatures falling back the low-60s. Overnight lows only in the upper-40s. This cool trend looks set to continue for the duration of next week. Though after a week with high temperatures in the 50s, the low-60s looks pretty good.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 6-10. Below average temperatures are indicated as very likely for much of the Eastern US
This temperature trend is borne out in the GFS models 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies. This chart is valid for 8AM Tuesday
An active weather pattern brings yet another week of cool, rainy weather. Tuesday will be the only day with sunny skies and near normal temperatures with high pressure briefly building in. Otherwise, a couple slow moving storms will bring clouds and rain the rest of the week. This will result in temperatures largely running below seasonal averages. I suppose that’s some incentive for people to stay safe and quarantine at home?
Rest of today – early rain chances should diminish steadily. High temperatures cool, only around 50ºF under the influence of northerly flow as the slow moving coastal storm that impacted us yesterday and today moves off to the northeast. Clouds should start to diminish later in the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
NAM output forecast cloud cover for 11AM Tuesday
Tuesday – we should see a brief window of sunny skies and dry weather as high pressure builds and passes over for the day. This break in rainy weather should allow temperatures to climb into the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Wednesday – the reprieve from dreary conditions barely lasts a day as yet another storm system takes aim at the area. With the high pressure Tuesday slow to move east, this next storm will be similarly as slow moving as this past weekend’s storm. The result for Wednesday, even if we don’t get too much in the way of rain, will be cloudy conditions and cool, southeasterly onshore flow ahead of an advancing warm front. This will cause temperatures to cool into the mid-50s. Overnight lows barely budge, and hover around 50ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Thursday
Thursday– the second storm of the week hits with steady rain and southeasterly onshore breezes. Warm advection could help temperatures stay slightly above 60ºF, with overnight lows in the low-50s.
Two coastal lows bring will rain today and Sunday. Saturday ends up being a nice day in between with some high pressure building briefly. The second coastal storm coming on Sunday drags into Monday bringing rain and cool temperatures. Throughout this period, temperatures will range at least 5ºF below normal. This below normal temperature trend, largely a continuation of this week, looks set to continue well into next week.
Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-50s with cloudy conditions and periods of steady rain off and on for much of the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain winding down and clouds clearing.
Saturday – sunny skies and high pressure should allow temperatures to climb to about 60ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – unfortunately, the dry weather doesn’t last as a second storm moves in for Sunday, bringing yet more rain and cool, cloudy weather. High temperatures topping out only in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
Monday– high temperatures still suppressed in the low-50s as this second storm lifts to the east. Overnight lows in the low-40s. Going into next week, temperature will stay below normal, anywhere between 5-10ºF. Later in the week, it appears a potent, closed 500 mb low will be the culprit for keeping temperatures down (and bringing yet more rain to us)
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Apr 29-May 3, showing below average temperatures continuing to affect much of the northeastern quadrant of the US
GFS 500 mb temperature, height and winds for 2AM Thursday, Apr 30. A closed 500 mb low is forecast to move over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario – this will be partly responsible for cooler than normal temperatures.
A couple storm systems will impact NYC this week. The first of these could bring some thunderstorms and gusty conditions tomorrow afternoon. Later this week on Thursday, a second storm bringing steadier rain will move through. Temperatures throughout this period will be generally 5ºF below normal. Tuesday and Wednesday overnight lows could bottom out in the upper-30s.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy, with clouds diminishing later, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday
Tuesday – quick moving storm will push a warm front and then a strong cold front through Tuesday afternoon. Showers should begin in the afternoon and a line of thunderstorms is possible with the cold front. High temperatures around 60ºF with southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.
Wednesday – the low bringing the rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday continues to strengthen. The pressure gradient will tighten around this low and bring windy conditions but with sunny skies. High temperatures cool off into the low-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.
GFS 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies for 2AM Thursday. A cold night in store for many parts of the Northeast!
Thursday– partly sunny skies with high temperatures climbing into the upper-50s. Overnight lows around 50ºF with rain developing.
An extended period of cool temperatures continues for the rest of the week into the weekend. During this period, highs will generally 10ºF below average. A weak storm passes through Friday night into Saturday bringing the chance for rain. Temperatures finally warm up to start next week though this may not last.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with high pressure building. High temperatures in the low-50s. Cold overnight lows in the mid-30s with a cool air mass in place. If skies remain clear and winds decouple overnight, we could see even colder overnight temperatures.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Friday
Friday – with a cold start to the day, high temperatures will be hindered around 50ºF. Clouds increase as a low pressure center moves towards us. Rain chances increase later in the day and into the overnight. Overnight lows around 40ºF
Saturday – rain ending early, as the storm system slides east of us. High temperatures hampered by this early rain and clouds, reaching into the mid-50s. Overnight lows around 40ºF.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for April 21-25, showing chances for below normal temperatures in the Northeast
Sunday– high temperatures start warming up to around 60ºF. Overnight lows will likewise warm into the upper-40s.
A powerful storm tracking over the Great Lakes that brought a deadly outbreak of severe weather and strong tornadoes to the Deep South will continue tracking northeast over the Great Lakes. A warm front and cold front associated with this storm could bring thunderstorms, though regardless, dangerously strong winds will be present. After this storm passes, this gives way to a cooling pattern with a second, weaker storm coming Wednesday. Temperatures during this period start above normal in the 60s to below normal in the low-50s.
Rest of today – a powerful surface low over tracking over the Great Lakes with minimum central pressure below 984 mb will bring a period of dangerous winds to the region. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure over the Atlantic will be very tight, as you can see below. This will result in sustained winds easily in the 30 mph range, with stronger gusts of 60-65 mph possible due to the very strong winds aloft. Both the warm front and cold fronts of this storm could touch off some isolated elevated thunderstorms, though instability will be modest at best. High temperatures should peak in the upper-60s with robust warm air advection due to these strong winds eventually turning southwest. Overnight lows in the mid-40s as this storm pulls away.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2PM Monday
Tuesday – skies clear up overnight into the morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies should prevail with high pressure building. High temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows around 40°F.
Wednesday – a second, weaker low is forecast to form over the northern Gulf of Mexico along the southerly extremes of the cold front from this first storm. This low then slides northeast along the coast. Although this second storm will pass far to the south of us, it could still bring some rain during the day. With clouds, rain, and an onshore northeasterly/easterly flow, temperatures will struggle to hit 50ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.
GFS model 500 mb height anomalies for 2PM Thursday. Negative height anomalies at the 500 mb level can often translate to below normal temperatures at the surface.
Thursday– temperatures remain cool despite more sun, only reaching into the low-50s. Overnight lows around 40ºF.
We have a stormy start to the forecast period with the Storm Prediction Center putting us under a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon. Behind this storm, windy conditions will prevail Friday with the pressure gradient tightening between an incoming high pressure and the departing low. This pressure gradient eases Saturday as high pressure moves more directly overhead. Decent weather continues Sunday before another storm rolls in Monday. Above normal temperatures for Thursday in the low-60s. Temperatures drop below normal in low-50s this weekend before picking up Monday into the upper-60s.
Rest of today – lighter stratiform rain in the morning hours with a warm front moving through. This will be followed up by a possible round of strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon hours (most likely around 1-2PM). The primary risk for severe weather comes from the potential for damaging wind gusts, with very fast winds aloft potentially mixing down to the surface. High temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows around 40ºF as gusty winds bring in strong cold air advection. See this detailed forecast for more info about today.
Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Thursday, showing us in a slight risk area for severe weather later today.
Friday – despite a high in the low-50s, strong winds around a deepening low will make it feel significantly cooler. Clouds should gradually diminish during the day. Overnight lows cool, in the upper-30s.
Weather Prediction center surface forecast for 8AM Friday. A strong low pressure cetner is indicated tracking northeast out of Maine.
Saturday – winds ease as an area of high pressure moves more directly over us. High temperatures should range in the mid-50s with plenty of sun. Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s.
Sunday– clouds increasing with high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will warm into the low-50s.
We have above normal warmth to start the week in the mid-60s. Clouds increase Tuesday going into Wednesday as a low is forecast to form along a warm front. This brings us the first chance for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There appears to be a brief pause in rain chances before before a more potent storm passes Thursday. As pointed out by forecasters, this storm looks to be associated with a vigorous upper low that should enhance lift. Some thunderstorms could be possible with this.. Temperatures will trend lower towards end of week.
Rest of today – high pressure in control with plenty of sun, high temperatures should rise into the mid-60s with downsloping northwesterly winds. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday
Tuesday – a warm front associated with a low tracking into the Great Lakes makes its approach. Ahead of this low, clouds will increase, though temperatures should still be able to reach into the low-60s. Overnight lows around 50°F with rain chances increasing.
Wednesday – rain early in the day as the warm front lifts through the region. High temperatures still reaching into the low-60s. There may be possible partial clearing of skies in the afternoon as we get into the warm sector behind the warm front. Overnight lows in the upper-40s.
GFS model 500 mb height, and relative vorticity valid 2PM Thursday. This model depicts a closed upper low over the Great Lakes spawning very strong vorticity (and hence divergence and lift aloft).
Thursday– a second, more powerful storm hits the region. A closed upper low over the Great Lakes will provide enhanced lift for this storm as it pushes a cold front through the area later on Thursday. High temperatures in the upper-50s. Showers and possibly thunderstorms will accompany the cold front passage. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
A retrograding low will bring increasing clouds, wind and rain to end the week. This low will be blocked from moving east until late Friday. High pressure will move in Saturday and should dry things out, and bring more sun. A weak cold front is forecast to pass through Sunday. Some rain will be possible with this frontal passage. Temperatures during this period should remain at or above normal for this period in the mid-50s.
Rest of today – increasing clouds with a low retrograding west towards the area. High temperatures in the mid-50s. Winds will pick up also as the pressure gradient builds between the retrograding low and high pressure to the west. Overnight lows should be around the mid-40s.
Friday – chances for rain, mostly in the morning hours, with high temperatures in the mid-50s under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances will diminish as this low finally pulls off to the south. Overnight lows again in the mid-40s.
Weather Prediction center surface forecast for 2AM Friday
GFS model 500 mb height, vorticity and wind forecast valid 10AM Thursday. Note the presence of the closed upper low offshore of the Northeast, with an omega blocking pattern over the eastern Atlantic (two lows, with a ridge in between, literally looks like the Greek letter for omega)
Saturday – as high pressure moves in, we’ll see a better day with partly to perhaps mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s.
Sunday– a weakening cold front may bring a chance for showers, but ahead of this, temperatures will be mild in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will warm into the mid-40s.
