The holiday weekend starts of with sunny skies and mid-60s temps. A cold front Saturday brings rain, and much cooler temps by Easter Sunday only in the low-50s. This cooler trend will continue into Monday as clouds increase ahead of the next storm system. Temps the second half of the weekend will be 8-10ºF below normal, a big contrast from this week!
Rest of today (Good Friday, Passover) – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. This will be the best day of the weekend. Overnight lows in the low-50s with clouds building.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for Saturday at 8 AM. A cold front will be approaching during the day.
Saturday – cloudy with rain showers developing later in the day, with high temperatures in the low-60s. Temperatures will fall into the low-40s after a cold front passes through. Shower activity should taper off overnight.
Sunday (Easter) – mostly sunny but much cooler, with high temperatures only hitting the low-50s. This is 8-10ºF below normal for this time of year. Overnight lows dropping back into the low-40s.
GFS model 850 mb temperature anomalies valid for 5 PM Monday. Unlike this week, when we had strong positive anomalies, we’ll be seeing a -6ºC anomaly Monday, leading to much cooler temperatures at the surface.
Monday– clouds increasing ahead of the next storm system affecting us, with high temperatures again below normal in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with rain developing.
Muggy with thunderstorms rolling through later this afternoon and highs in the upper-70s. The story this weekend is about building heat and humidity. A Bermuda high becomes the dominant feature bringing an extended period of 90ºF+ heat into next week. While this high is anchored in the western Atlantic, we won’t see any appreciable chances for rain at least until later in the week next week.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-70s. HRRR simulated radar runs this morning consistently signalling the arrival of a line of thunderstorms around 3-4PM this afternoon. Behind these storms, temperatures overnight expected to be in the mid-60s.
HRRR rapid refresh simulated 1-km radar valid 3:30 PM later today showing a cluster/line of thunderstorms moving through the NYC area.
Saturday – sunny with high temperatures much warmer in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s. Humidity will be building as well due to the influence of southwesterly/westerly flow bringing in a warmer and moisture-laden air mass.
Sunday – high temperatures around 90ºF with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness and surface conditions valid 8 PM Sunday. You can see a sprawling high pressure center in the Atlantic. Clockwise anticyclonic flow from the south/southwesterly flow around the periphery of this high will advect hot, humid air towards our area.
Monday– with a Bermuda high still in place, expect high temperatures to once again reach around 90ºF with higher heat index values due to the humidity. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Quite a different picture this weekend versus last weekend. Instead of summer like warmth, temperatures will be 10-20ºF below normal in the 50s-60s Saturday and Sunday. A series of slow moving coastal lows is the culprit, bringing much needed rain, and the most substantial rain since the beginning of the month. Memorial Day looks sunnier with temperatures climbing back towards normal in the 70s.
Rest of today – increasing clouds, high temperature in the mid-upper 60s. Rain begins to arrive towards the late afternoon and continues on right through the overnight hours. Overnight lows dropping to around 50ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8 AM Saturday. A low pressure center moving from the Ohio Valley will elongate with a stationary front extending east-northeast offshore of the region. Waves of low pressure will the move along this boundary this weekend bringing multiple rounds of rain.
Saturday – windy, rainy, and raw, with temperatures only in the mid-50s, which is more typical of March than May. Persistent northeasterly onshore flow with a stationary front positioned south of the region and waves of low pressure moving along it will act to keep things cloudy and cool. Overnight lows again around the 50ºF mark with rain chances backing off but still possible.
Sunday – another low pressure moving along that stationary front will bring more chances for rain particularly early in the day. High temperatures slightly warmer in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness and precipitation type for 11 AM Sunday. Another area of low pressure is depicted impacting the area.
Monday– the unsettled weather finally moves off with a return to sunnier weather. High temperatures Monday should hit the low-70s as a result. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.
A dramatic warm up in store this weekend with highs climbing into the mid-80s and the 90ºF mark. A couple of scattered chances for thunderstorms come with a weak shortwave Saturday and a cold front passing Sunday. This second front will cool things back to seasonable temperatures in the low-70s to start off next week. Yet another warm spell with 90s is taking shape for mid-week next week!
Rest of today – partly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s in the city as high pressure remains dominant, cooler at the coast with a sea breeze developing. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
GFS model 500 mb height and vorticity for Saturday at 8PM. A shortwave with attendant vorticity is visible across Southern New England stretching west-southwest into PA and OH.
Saturday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s as a warm front pushes through. A chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the interior as a shortwave passes later in the day. Overnight lows quite warm, in the upper-60s, could break records for the warmest minimum temperatures for this day.
Sunday – mostly sunny with high temperatures warming to the 90ºF mark in the city, possibly warmer. Downsloping northwesterly flow should aid this warmup. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible later in the day with a weak cold front approaching. Overnight lows dropping to the low-60s.
GFS model 2-meter above ground temperature and 10-meter above ground temperature for 2 PM Sunday.
Monday– big difference in temperatures with high temperatures back in the low-70s behind the cold front passing on Sunday. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
A steady warming trend takes place this weekend on the heels of a late season snow storm for interior New England. Temperatures will go from below normal in the low-50s to about average for this time of the year in the low-60s. High pressure brings us decent conditions but rain chances are not out of the question Sunday and Monday with some mid-level disturbances possibly bringing some showers.
Rest of today – wraparound moisture from a late-season Nor’easter that’s bringing accumulating snow to interior New England could bring some showers later today. Otherwise partly sunny with high temperatures on the cool side in the low-50s with northwesterly winds keeping a cap on temps. Overnight lows in the low-40s as rain chances die down.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. Low pressure off of New England will be pulling to the east, but still close enough to give us some clouds.
Saturday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-40s. Weak high pressure should keep any rain at bay.
Sunday – mostly cloudy, with high temperatures warming into the low-60s. Slight chance for showers in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
GFS model 500 mb height and vorticity for Monday at 8AM. A fairly potent area of vorticity (dark purples) associated with a shortwave could bring some showers to the area.
Monday– mostly sunny to start with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Rain chances pick up in the afternoon with diurnally driven showers that could get a boost from some mid-level vorticity. Overnight lows at or slightly below 50ºF.
Possibly record-breaking warmth in the low-70s to start the weekend along with strong winds accompanying the passage of a cold front. This frontal boundary brought an outbreak of violent tornadoes to the South yesterday, but luckily will be rather tame in comparison for our region. Cooler weather will occur behind this cold front but especially behind a second storm system Sunday bringing rain. Temps will drop to the low-50s by the end of the weekend.
Rest of today – cloudy with high temperatures in the low-70s. Southwesterly winds 15-20 mph picking up later in the afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph. Overnight lows in the upper-50s as skies clear out.
GFS model 2 meter above ground temperatures and 10 meter above ground winds. Very warm temperatures in the low to maybe even mid-70s by about 3PM this afternoon.
Saturday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows again in the upper-40s.
Sunday – mostly cloudy with rain developing in the morning and continuing in periods throughout the day. High temperatures around 60ºF. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain ending and skies gradually clearing.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday. Low pressure traversing the Great Lakes will bring the potential for a good, soaking rain.
Monday– cooler with high temperatures in the low-50s under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.
The rainy day yesterday yields a weekend of largely unbroken sunshine and above average warmth. Strong high pressure will dominate our sensible weather bringing stable, dry conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s generally and this mild trend continues into next week. In fact, this mild weather could carry on for the balance of the month. No major chances for rain to speak of in the upcoming days into mid-week next week.
Rest of today – windy with sunny skies and highs in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the low-30s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. Strong high pressure will be nearly directly overhead.
Saturday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight lows again in the upper-30s.
Sunday – very similar to Saturday, sunny with highs in the mid-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-40s.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for March 24-28, showing high probabilities of above normal warmth for the Northeast.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for March 26-Apr 1, continuing to show probabilities for above average warmth in this part of the country.
Monday– another great day with high temperatures in the mid-50s and perhaps a few more clouds. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
We have a cool start to most of the weekend with gradual warming trend taking place as high temperatures move up through the upper-30s into the low-40s. High pressure will be dominating sensible weather with lots of sun and calm conditions. This high remains in control until late next week, when we have our next chance at rain. The center of the high will gradually shift east during this time, inducing warm, southerly/southwesterly return flow next week, continuing the warm up to the point that temperatures could reach near 60ºF by mid-week.
Rest of today – windy with sunny skies and highs in the mid-30s. Overnight lows in the upper-20s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Saturday. High pressure is set to build to our west and move in.
Saturday – partly sunny with high temperatures reaching the upper-30s. Overnight lows again in the upper-20s.
Sunday – very similar to Saturday but with sunnier skies and high temperatures in the upper-30s and overnight lows in the upper-20s.
GFS model 850 mb temperature, height and winds for 10PM next Thursday. This shows a remarkable warming trend underway at this level of the atmosphere, which serves as a good proxy for surface temperatures.
Monday– warmer with high temperatures in the low-mid 40s under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-30s.
An arctic chill with bitterly cold winds kicks off the weekend as strong high pressure moves in. Overnight lows in the teens and high temperatures in the 20s will range 10-15ºF below normal for this time of year. This cold air could set the stage for a nor’easter bringing significant snowfall to the region, with totals > 6″ possible Monday into Tuesday. As usual, track details on this storm will be pivotal, and are not clear at this time.
Rest of today – mostly clear, cold, and windy with high temperatures in the low-20s. A strong arctic high and a departing low will create a tight pressure gradient that ushers in stiff northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. Wind chills will hover around 0ºF. Overnight temperatures drop into the mid-teens with wind chills likewise dropping below zero.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday. A strong area of high pressure is parked over much of the Eastern US.
Saturday – winds abate with high pressure moving more directly overhead. Sunny, but still cold with high temperatures around 30ºF. Overnight lows will be in the upper-teens under increasing cloud cover.
Sunday – mostly cloudy as the next storm system starts to work in. High temperatures around 30ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-20s with the possibility of snow developing overnight into Monday morning.
GFS model total snowfall accumulation as of 7AM Tuesday
ECMWF model total snowfall accumulation as of 7AM Tuesday
UKMET model total snowfall accumulation as of 7AM Tuesday
Monday– stiff northeasterly winds developing along with snow. High temperatures in the low-30s. The storm possibly bringing us significant snow came ashore over the west coast yesterday and will be transiting the country the next couple days. It is eventually forecast to spawn a coastal low, bringing a nor’easter into our region. Even though cold air will precede this storm, offshore waters are still mild, in the low 40s-50s, and with the storm likely to bring southerly/northeasterly flow at the outset, we could see enough warming to mix to rain at the coast. Storm track and strength will be vital to the eventual snowfall totals. Models seem to signal a very tight banding feature bringing heavy snow – you’ve heard this before but these bands are notoriously difficult to pinpoint even a day ahead of the event. If the optimal scenario plays out, we could see a storm with similar or possibly bigger totals than the one in December. Overnight lows Monday shouldn’t budge much, in the low-30s, with some warm advection associated with portions of the storm.
A cold and breezy start to the weekend with a cold front ushering in below average temperatures mostly in the mid-30s. High pressure builds and keeps things dry during the weekend. However, the upper-level pattern shifts to allow a shortwave trough to push through early next week, leading to a storm that could bring some accumulating snow overnight Monday into Tuesday.
Rest of today – partly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-40s. A moisture-starved cold front will work its way through the region. The main impact of this front will be to induce a shift in winds to the northwest, and trigger some decent cold air advection. This will lead to overnight temperatures plummeting into the mid-upper 20s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday
Saturday – high pressure builds in behind the cold front, giving us a mostly sunny day. This high pressure and a low off to the northeast over the Canadian Maritimes will lead to a fairly tight pressure gradient, and the result should be breezy winds from the northwest, sustained in the range of 15-20 mph at least. So despite the sun, the cold start to the day will lead to temperatures in the low-30s and a much colder feel with wind chills around 20ºF. Overnight lows will be the coldest in quite some time, in the low-20s.
Sunday – windy conditions continue at least part of the day with high temperatures in the mid-30s. Once the center of the high moves over us, winds should subside. Overnight lows in the mid-20s with clouds building in.
GFS model 500 mb height and vorticity animated loop valid 7PM Sunday through 7PM Monday, showing a de-amplifying shortwave trough ejecting from the southwest towards our region.
Monday– as the high pressure eventually moves off, a shortwave trough will be progressing towards our region. The accompanying surface low will bring mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures should peak in the mid-30s. Overnight, the storm is positioned to possibly bring us some light accumulating snow. Currently, it’s hard to pin down a total, but the following images from GFS and ECMWF models suggest something on the order of 3-5″ is possible. Low temperatures in the upper-20s should support all snow during this event, so storm track will be key here.
GFS model 24 hour snowfall total ending 1AM Wednesday
