Category Archives: Weekend

NYC Weekend Weather – May 4, 2018

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After two days of record-breaking heat in the low-90s, a pattern change is on tap for the NYC metro area going into the weekend. Cooler conditions will prevail in the wake of the passage of a cold front, which could also bring rain and thunderstorms (possibly severe). Saturday should shape up nicely but rain chances return Sunday before a cooler start to the work week.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a marginal-slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity today. We continue to be an increasingly moist warm sector east of an advancing low pressure center. As the cold front associated with this low pushes east, storms will initiate first along a pre-frontal trough during the day today (late morning-early afternoon), then again along the actual frontal boundary itself later this evening. It is the latter round of these storms that could push severe limits. There are limiting factors to this activity especially near the coast with more stable air present. Cloud cover will limit day time heating, reducing overall instability. And the earlier round of activity should serve to actually mitigate the later round of storms. Aside from the rain, it should be mostly cloudy with some breaks in the sun (that would increase chances for storms), with high temperatures in the mid-80s.


Saturday – cooler air moves in behind the cold front tonight while a weak area of high pressure builds. High temperatures should top out in the mid-70s with partly sunny conditions. Rain chances increase towards the overnight hours.

Sunday – cooler still with mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain. High temperatures only in the mid-60s as a weak disturbance passes to our south.

Monday – skies finally clear up with high temperatures moderating and warming into the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 27, 2018

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A wet end to the week will lead to a better first half of the weekend. Showers could occur again on Sunday, but we’ll once again dry out to start next week. A big shift in weather patterns will take place next week with a dramatically warmer air mass to move into the region. Summer-like temperatures in the low-80s by late next week will be a possibility.

Rest of today – cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-50s and rain. Rain beginning this morning, but tapering off in NYC by late afternoon around 4PM, just before the evening rush. Given the set up of winds from the south flowing over a warm front pushing though, some elevated thunderstorms are possible today.

Saturday – nice day on tap with mostly sunny skies and temperatures into upper-60s. Clouds increase late with the chance of scattered showers increasing overnight as a cold front passes through.

Sunday – lingering rain chance early, with conditions improving later and clouds diminishing. Cooler with highs in the upper-50s in the wake of the cold front above.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 20, 2018

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The pattern of much below normal temperatures will finally break, albeit slowly, starting this weekend. After a soaker to start last week, and a gloomy, rainy Thursday, it will be nice to see a break from the rain. We won’t get another rain chance until Wednesday of this coming week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with a gusty northwest wind as high as 25 mph, though sustained wind will be calmer in the 10-15 mph range. High temperatures in the low-50s.

Saturday – high pressure will begin to take firm hold of the weather in the region, yielding sunny weather with warmer temperatures in the upper-50s to near 60°F.

Sunday – another beautiful spring day with bright, sunny skies and temperatures near 60°F.

Monday – sunny, and warmer still with temperatures starting to creep into the low-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 16, 2018

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This work week starts off with a serious soaking rain from a storm system that has impacted a wide swath of the southern US with multiple days of severe weather. Conditions improve tomorrow and Wednesday before another chance for rain on Thursday. The rain this morning has led to the issuance of flash flood warnings, and numerous reports of flooding have already come in, so take caution out there, especially if you’re out on the roads.

Rest of today – rain, heavy at times, with the threat for flash flooding and flooding possible as storms train and hit the same areas repeatedly. Some embedded thunderstorms have been occurring this morning, enhancing the heavy rainfall potential. Some areas could see rainfall rates of up to 1″/hr along with gusty winds in the 40-50 mph range. Temperatures will be rising into the upper-50s as a warm front approaches from the south.

Tuesday – improving conditions as the storm system responsible for today’s rain moves off. Cooler, with temperatures maxing out in the low-50s in the wake of a cold front and mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the best day of this week with high temperatures in the mid-50s and mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – another storm system, albeit weaker, will impact the area. High temperatures should hover in the mid-50s with chances for rain and cloudy skies otherwise.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 13, 2018

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Despite it being Friday the 13th, if you were looking for some spring weather, this happens to be your lucky day. With our region in the warm sector of a large storm system far off to the south and west (which will bring severe weather to parts of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Missouri Valleys today), warm air will be surging from the south. This will give us a great start to the weekend, though things will shift dramatically by Sunday as a frontal boundary dances back and forth across the area. Wild temperature swings of 30ºF are possible with a much cooler day Sunday.

Rest of today – despite the cloud cover now, temperatures should still reach well into the mid-70s. Any breaks in the clouds would likely result in highs hitting 80ºF. There will also be a steady southerly breeze with gusts up to 20 mph.

Saturday – temperatures remain quite warm with highs again in the mid-70s. The warm front that swept north through the region last night, which brought the warm air along with it, will retreat south of the area as a backdoor cold front late during the day Saturday. Expect temperatures to drop rapidly after this backdoor cold front passes through – between 10-15ºF within as little as an hour. Increasing clouds will accompany this frontal passage.

Sunday – significantly cooler with easterly onshore winds in the wake of the backdoor cold front passage. This onshore flow off the still cold waters of the Atlantic will result in high temperatures only in the upper-40s. Periods of rain will also occur, especially later in the day with mostly cloudy skies otherwise.

Monday – the backdoor cold front will stall just south of us, then push back north as a warm front again. Temperatures will rise back towards around 60ºF prior to the arrival of a stronger cold front. This will be accompanied by steadier rain and even a couple rumbles of thunder are possible.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 30, 2018

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We’ll start this weekend off with slightly above average to average temperatures. A pleasant weekend of calm weather is in store, and looks to continue into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will dip a little towards mid-week with the anticipated passage of a cold front.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance for showers as a cold front passes through today. Temperatures at or above average in the upper-50s.

Saturday – a gem of a day with high temperatures in the mid-upper 50s and sunny skies with high pressure in control.

Sunday – some clouds as a early but it should still shape up to be a decent day as another cold front passes through, this time anticipated to be a dry frontal passage. A touch cooler with high temperatures in the low-50s.

Monday – cooler air rushing in behind the second cold front on Sunday will bring overnight lows only in the mid-30s. As a result, high temperatures will be well below normal Monday in the upper-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 23, 2018

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Now that we have a record-breaking, snow-making, spring nor’easter behind us, we can finally start to look ahead to better, calmer weather. This weekend may not be entirely free of precipitation and will be colder than average, but it will still be a welcome reprieve. Looking ahead, there’s some chance we could see a true taste of spring with temps nearing the 60s late next week!

Rest of today – decreasing clouds as an area of high pressure starts to make its presence felt. High temperatures in the mid-40s.

Saturday – sunny, high temperatures in the mid-40s but with a chilly feel due to some northerly winds.

Sunday – high pressure breaks down and a storm system passes to our south but results in increased clouds. Temperatures in the low-40s as a result. Small chance for rain/snow possible due to the influence of the storm that hit us this week still stuck spinning out in the western North Atlantic.

Monday – high pressure builds again, yielding a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

 

Warmer than Average April?

It’s been a rollercoaster temperature-wise in the Northeast to say the least over the last 3 months. January was bitterly cold and much below average. Then we experienced some record-breaking warmth in February, only to revert back to a colder than average month of March. Looking ahead, there are some signs from the Climate Prediction Center that we could experience a warmer than average April!

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 16, 2018

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An uneventful, though kind of cold weekend is in store for the NYC area. Great news for those of you going out for St. Patrick’s Day festivities. Looking ahead into mid-week next week, we have the potential for yet another nor’easter impacting the region with, you guessed it, the possibility for more snow.

Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a high near 40°F.

Saturday (St. Patrick’s Day) – warmer, sunny, with a high in the mid-40s, pretty much ideal conditions for the parade.

Sunday – sunny, high in the low-40s. High pressure will be in control of the area.

Monday – mostly sunny with highs in the mid-40s.

Why Seemingly Unending Conveyor Belt of Nor’easters?

The simple answer: The Greenland Block. You may have heard the term “blocking high” mentioned in regards to the anomalously active and cold weather pattern over the Northeast this month. In essence, what’s happened is that a strong ridge of persistent high pressure has formed over Greenland this month. Very cold air over snow-covered landmasses like Greenland is often quite stable. Colder, denser air, also increases surface pressures.

Cyclonic flow around such an area of strong high pressure can wreak havoc with the polar jet stream – diverting its normal flow around the high. This can (and has in our case) lead to the polar jet diving far to the south, allowing large intrusions of Arctic air into the Eastern US. Jet streams can also enhance storms via upper level divergence, lowering surface pressures. Lastly, the blocking high can slow the normal eastward progression of storm systems, causing storms to linger over areas and extended periods of precipitation and coastal impacts in the case of nor’easters.

The Greenland Block is correlated with an index called the North Atlantic Oscillation. When values of this index are negative, it’s more likely that such a blocking pattern arises. Lucky for us, it appears that we may finally get a break in this pattern towards the end of the month.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 9, 2018

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This weekend, we’ll be watching for development of yet another nor’easter that could impact the region to start off next week. This would mark the third nor’easter in as many weeks, and put an exclamation point on a very active weather pattern. We also set our clocks forward with daylight saving time overnight between Saturday and Sunday. Enjoy more sun in the evenings!

Rest of today – clods and sun with a possibility for a spot flurry later in the day. High temperatures in the mid-40s.

Saturday – mostly sunny with high temperatures around average for this time of year in the mid-40s.

Sunday – another average day with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Monday – things could get interesting as a developing low off the North Carolina coast works its way up the Eastern Seaboard. There’s a good deal of uncertainty at this time about the eventual storm track. Some models take this storm too far offshore to affect us, but notably the GFS has been on the western end of the forecast envelope. Some of its solutions would bring another significant storm with the possibility for more snow to the area Monday. Needless to say, this is situation that will bear monitoring over the weekend. High temperatures Monday will be impacted by the proximity of this storm. For now, forecasts call for a high around 40ºF with a chance of rain/snow.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 2, 2018

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March arrives as a roaring lion this year with a powerful nor’easter impacting the region during the first half of the weekend. A variety of hazards from snow to high winds to coastal flooding will affect the area before this nor’easter meanders its way out to the open ocean. Behind this storm, the large scale pattern shifts and much cooler air rushes in, displacing unseasonable warmth with more average temperatures for the week to come.

Rest of today – rain and snow mixing. Little to no accumulation expected. Winds increasing from north to northeast winds 20-25 mph to 30-35 mph with gusts as high as 60 mph near the coast possible later today. Moderate coastal flooding possible over multiple tide cycles tonight, and Saturday. These tides will be higher than normal since they are falling on the full moon (spring tides). Temperatures will hold steady in the upper-30s.

Overnight, an inland low and coastal low consolidated offshore of the Northeast and the coastal low has already rapidly strengthened to a minimum pressure of 984 mb this morning. Two branches of the polar jet have phased together, providing the energy for this robust storm. As the storm continues to deepen, the pressure gradient between it and an area of high pressure over the Upper Midwest will continue to increase, leading to stronger winds. Onshore flow of these winds from the north and northeast over an extended period of time are expected to bring coastal flooding. Periods of moderate to heavy rain could lead to flooding in general. Although the cold, northwest flank of the storm as it exits to the east will support snow (with its cold conveyor belt), accumulations at the coast should be limited. This is another story inland where heavy snow is expected in the Lower Hudson Valley.

Saturday – periods of moderate to heavy rain with snow mixing in continue overnight, but should taper off by the morning. Winds will diminish from the 30 mph range with gusts up to 55 mph overnight but will remain stiff in the 20-25 mph range from the north. Much colder feel with highs in the mid-40s under partly sunny skies.

Sunday – much nicer day, winds finally abating with high temperatures in the mid-40s and mostly sunny skies.

Monday – sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-40s.