Category Archives: Weekend

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 25, 2016

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Easter weekend will be bookended by wet weather, but the weekend days themselves should be dry with temperatures around average for this time of year.

Rest of today – an earlier round of showers passed through earlier this morning. Another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms will pass through the region along with a cold front in the afternoon hours. It appears that there will be a good chance for rain between the hours of 12PM-6PM, after which skies should gradually clear.

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Saturday – a cooler airmass will take over following the cold front today, so temperatures to start on Saturday will only be around 40ºF. Under mostly sunny skies, the high temperature should still hit normal levels in the low-50s.

Sunday (Easter) – clouds will be on increase for Easter, though no rain is expected. High temperatures will range in the mid-50s.

Monday – our next shot at rain arrives Monday with a warm front and a low pressure system moving up the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, in the upper-50s.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 17, 2016

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Meteorologically, March is a month of highly changeable weather that can swing from one extreme to another. Thus far this month, we’ve seen snow, and record warm temperatures near 80ºF. This week is no different, and it ends with the possibility for a significant coastal storm that could bring accumulating snow to the region to ring in the official start of spring!

Rest of today – warm, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-60s. An unstable atmosphere looks primed to spawn a few scattered thunderstorms. Atmospheric dynamics are supportive of strong wind gusts and possibly small hail with any storms that form this afternoon. Some of these storms could approach severe limits. Based on the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output, there look to be two batches of storms, one impacting the region around 2PM, then again around 5:30PM. At the time of this post, two storm cells were moving slowly east over southern Bergen County and the western Bronx respectively.

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Friday – temperatures cool off into the low-mid 50s tomorrow, with a slight chance again for some afternoon showers, though nothing quite as significant as today.

Saturday – an area of polar high pressure will move over southeastern Canada, setting the stage for the winter storm Sunday. Saturday, however, will be a pleasant, sunny day, but temperatures will be below average in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – all eyes turn to a developing coastal storm/Nor’easter. Forecast models are having a rough time handling this storm, with wide variances noted among some of the models from day to day. Given the uncertainty at this time, only a couple days before the expected onset of the storm, it is difficult to guess at the snowfall accumulations from this storm. One thing that is well understood at this point is that temperature profiles will support a primarily snow event, with some rain mixing in at the coast. High temperatures Sunday will struggle to hit 40ºF. Snow should begin in the morning, mixing with rain in the afternoon Sunday afternoon before transitioning again to all snow overnight. A slight variation in the forecast storm track either west or east could result in dramatically different snowfall totals – more updates to come.

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Monday – temperatures rebound back into the mid-40s under partly sunny skies following the passage of this late season snow storm.

 

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 10, 2016

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Another day of near record or record breaking temperatures is on tap for the region as a highly anomalous stretch of warm weather continues. Yesterday, Central Park hit 77ºF, shattering the old record of 69ºF set in 2000 by nearly 10ºF. Looking ahead, temperatures will moderate somewhat over the weekend, but will remain 10ºF+ warmer than normal for this time of year in the upper-50s to low-60s. We spring forward an hour into Daylight Savings Time on Sunday.

Rest of today – temperatures at this hour were already well into the upper-60s and just over 70ºF across the region. Today would easily be warmer than yesterday if not for the fact that current satellite trends suggest that widespread cloud cover will be moving in over the next couple of hours. Areas that experience more breaks in cloud cover today could break some records. Rain will develop, first to the north, then push through the whole area overnight tonight.

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Friday – clouds should clear up steadily through the day Friday. A cold front will move through, and will cause high temperatures to dip by about 10ºF compared to today, yielding highs in the low-60s, but that will still be over 10ºF above normal for this time of year.

Saturday – high pressure from the north takes control and gives us a beautiful, sunny day with high temperatures near 60ºF.

Sunday – similar temperatures to Saturday, but with increasing clouds as the next storm approaches the area.

Monday – cooler with high temperatures in the low-50s and rain.

Warm Trend Continues to Late March

Looking ahead, temperatures are forecast to continue at above normal levels through the majority of March.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 3, 2016

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As we approach spring, the weather has a tendency to swing wildly between different extremes. We start this forecast period off with accumulating snow, while by this time next week, we are expecting temperatures in the 60s!

Rest of today – mostly sunny, but cool with below average high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Friday – overnight tonight into the first half of Friday, our area will get impacted by the northern fringe of what is expected to be a powerful coastal storm. Lucky for us, high pressure north of us is sufficiently strong so as to prevent this storm from hitting us dead one, which would certainly result in a more significant snowfall event. In this case, we are expecting to see snow in the range of 1-2″ across the city and Long Island with lesser amounts further north and west. Temperatures will remain colder than nom

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Saturday – high pressure takes control with skies clearing and temperatures in the low-40s. Another slight chance for snow Saturday night accompanies the passage of a clipper system.

Sunday – partly sunny with highs around average in the low-mid 40s.

Monday – temperatures start to warm up as the high pressure moves offshore to the east and warm, southwesterly return flow circles clockwise around its western periphery. High temperatures in the low-50s.

Warming Trend Ahead

With the aforementioned high pressure center offshore in the Atlantic early to mid-week next week, we’ll see increasingly warm temperatures, up into the 60s by Wednesday. This warm trend looks to continue over the course of the next week, with a brief cooldown late next week before what should be a warm weekend next week.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 26, 2016

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The main weather story this weekend will be a rather dramatic swing in temperatures. We start the weekend off with below normal temperatures and highs only in the upper-30s. By Monday, temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid-50s. The best day of the weekend will be Sunday with ample sunshine and mild highs in the low-50s.

Rest of today – sunny, with a cool northwest wind in the 20-25mph range, which will make it feel like the upper-20s with an actual high temperature in the upper-30s.

Saturday – winds abate and but temperatures remain cool in the upper-30s despite plenty of sunshine.

Sunday – a world of difference with temperatures topping out in the low-mid 50s.

High pressure to the south with a frontal boundary to the west leads to warmer air flowing from the southwest
High pressure to the south with a frontal boundary to the west leads to warmer air flowing from the southwest

Monday – continuing a mild trend with temperatures in the mid-50s and mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 18, 2016

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This weekend will be uneventful in terms of sensible weather, and will stand in stark contrast to last weekend in terms of temperatures. As you’ll recall, we had high temperatures last Sunday around 10ºF – this Sunday high temperatures may be 40ºF warmer than that, near 50ºF. Looking ahead, though, there is a chance for a mid-week storm next week, and it would appear that there’ll be another downward temperature trend to end the month, perhaps lasting into the beginning of March as well.

Rest of today – sunny skies belie cold temperatures with highs only hitting the mid-30s today.

Friday – about the same in terms of temperature, but with increasing clouds throughout the day as a warm front approaches from the west. There may be some scattered rain during the overnight hours going into Saturday, although the bulk of this storm system is expected to pass well to the north.

Saturday – much warmer with southwesterly flow behind the warm front referenced above. High temperatures expected to be around 50ºF with mostly sunny skies.

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Sunday – slightly cooler with high temperature in the upper-40s.

Monday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.

Cooler to End the Month

Looking ahead to next week, temperatures are expected to be just about normal to perhaps a little below, which would mean about 35-40ºF.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 11, 2016

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The weather headline for this weekend will be bitterly cold temperatures that may have you reconsidering any plans to be outdoors during Valentine’s Day. The incoming airmass will definitely be the coldest of the year and the season thus far. The good news for us is that this Arctic airmass does not stick around for long, with temperatures expected to rebound nicely by early-mid week next week.

Rest of today – will be a preview of the cold coming our way with temperatures only topping out in the upper-20s. Scattered snow showers are possible (some of these snow showers are actually remnants of lake effect snows occurring hundreds of miles to our north and west). With west winds blowing in the 20-30mph range, wind chill will make it feel like 15-20ºF out there.

Friday – an Arctic cold front swings through overnight into Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper-teens in the city and in the low-teens further north and west. High temperatures should rest in the mid-20s with increasing cloud cover as another impulse of energy makes its way in for Saturday.

Saturday – there will be a slight chance for snow showers overnight Friday into Saturday. Low temperatures will be only in the mid-teens, and with winds expected to pick up, wind chill values will hover in the single digits. Daytime highs Saturday will struggle to break 20ºF in the city. Northwest winds 25-30mph will lead to wind chills again only in the teens. As an impulse of energy pushes through Saturday morning, there may be some scattered snow showers before skies clear and things dry out.

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Sunday – overnight lows Saturday into Sunday are going to be the coldest we’ve seen all year, with a low temperature in the city forecast at a mere 2ºF! Wind chill advisories will likely be posted for this period, with widespread below zero wind chills likely. Temperatures don’t rebound much during the day Sunday, with high temperatures only in the upper-teens.

Monday (President’s Day) – this is when the recovery in temperatures begins with high temperatures expected to go back up to around freezing. The next storm system looks like it will be moving through Tuesday, but it will also be accompanied by a much warmer airmass.

Warming Up Next Week

40ºF doesn’t sound all that warm, but you’ll welcome that next week as we see a return to above normal temperatures.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 4, 2016

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We have had a very warm start to the month of February, and it sure does feel like the groundhogs were right that there will an early spring. Even if that is to be the case, we are still technically in the depths of winter, and the weather over the next couple of weeks will remind us of that fact. The end of this week and this weekend will be relatively quiet on the weather front, but looking ahead at the beginning of next week, there is a potential for a coastal storm that could bring us some more snow.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun, warm but with temperatures dropping through the 50s during the day.

Friday – the cold front that passed through yesterday will stall out at sea, but close enough to us that another impulse of low pressure moving along it could bring some light snow to southern and eastern portions of the NYC region. Light, wet, accumulating snow is possible for NYC and Long Island. Depending on the storm track, some areas of eastern Long Island could pick up 3″, while areas west closer to the city see a coating to an inch overnight. During the day Friday, temperatures will cool off noticeably into the low-40s and the winds will pick up as skies clear.

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Saturday – a nice day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – essentially a clone of Saturday in terms of sensible weather, mostly sunny, highs in the low-mid 40s.

 

Cooling Off the Next Couple Weeks

It is technically supposed to be the coldest stretch of the year climatologically, so it makes sense that there should be some cooler temperatures coming. In fact, Climate Prediction Center does have normal to below normal temperatures (normal would be in the mid-30s) for the area the next couple of weeks.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 29, 2016

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You’d be forgiven if you didn’t believe that a record-setting Nor’easter blizzard happened less than a week ago. A week of much above average temperatures and warm weather has quickly melted more than half of the snowpack that was left after the blizzard dropped 26.8″ (.1″ short of the all time record) in Central Park, breaking the single day storm total snowfall record with a new high of 26.6″. Except, of course, those huge snow mounds that are trapping your parked car. Warm weather, with high temperatures near or above 50ºF this weekend means that even more of this snow will melt away. Whatever’s left will likely be completely washed away mid-week next week when we’re expected to hit temperatures near 60ºF with thunderstorms possible.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high near 40ºF. A passing rain/snow shower caused by a weak passing disturbance in the upper atmosphere is possible this afternoon around 1PM.

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Saturday – brief clearing caused by an area of high pressure overnight will give way again to increasing clouds with high temperatures around 40ºF again.

Sunday – the high pressure moves quickly off to our east Sunday, allowing for clockwise return flow from the southwest to bring in warmer temperatures in the upper 40s under partly sunny skies.

Monday – warm temperatures continue with highs topping out around 50ºF and partly sunny skies.

 

Cooldown Coming

Don’t get too used to the warm temperatures because after mid-week next week, cold air returns to the Eastern United States for a period.

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Blizzard Brings Drought Relief

One of the best parts about this blizzard was that it brought along some much needed precipitation precisely to areas of the region that most needed it. As you’ll see below, since the blizzard past the area of New York State experiencing moderate drought has decreased from 6.80% to 2.04%, largely because areas of moderate drought in the NYC region and Long Island have gotten slammed with huge amounts of snow that will be replenishing the local watersheds as it melts.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Nor’easter Inbound – Jan 21, 2016

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All eyes turn towards this weekend’s Nor’easter which will bring us the most snow we’ve seen since last winter. Confidence is growing that NYC and points south could receive over a foot of snow by Sunday. In addition, forecasters anticipate that this storm will bring sustained winds of 30mph to coastal areas with gusts as high as 40-60mph leading to whiteout blizzard conditions. However, it is important to not, even at this point, 48 hours from the start of this event, that a good deal of uncertainty remains about these forecast snow totals.

Rest of today – mostly clear with high temperatures reaching into the mid-30s but a northwest wind in the 15mph range making it feel colder.

Friday – slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 30s, clouds I increasing through the day as the headline storm for the weekend approaches.

Saturday – snow should begin falling from southwest to northeast overnight Friday and continue throughout the day Saturday. Sustained northeast winds 25mph-30mph could lead to drifting and blowing snow, making for hazardous teavel conditions. Some potential exists that enough warmer air wraps into the storm off the Atlantic that some areas see a changeover to a rain/sleet/snow mix in the afternoon before transitioning back to all snow Saturday night. Total daytime accumulations are currently forecast between 3-7″. Overnight accumulations could be in the 4-8″ range.

MinSnowWeb
Minimum snowfall for this Nor’easter
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Most likely snowfall totals
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Maximum snowfall possible with this storm


Sunday – some lingering snow showers are possible Sunday morning but conditions should improve rapidly as cloud cover decreases with the storm exiting to our east. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30s.

Monday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-30s and sunny skies.

Complicating Factors for Forecasting the Nor’easter

  • Model divergence – European models favor a solution that has the storm moving quicker and further south than US based models. This scenario would result in minimal snow for NYC, hence why the minimum snow forecast is only 2″.
  • Unpredictable snow bands – as we are all too aware from last year’s fiasco of subway shutdowns in anticipation for a blizzard that didn’t materialize, when it comes to Nor’easter type storms, where, when, and for how long deformation banding features (heavy bands of snow) set up will make or break a snowfall total forecast in either direction. However, these types of mesoscale banding features are not easy to predict with confidence before they actually start forming. Should parts of our region fall under one of these banding features where snow could be falling at rates of 1″+ per hour, you could easily see total snowfall forecasts be shattered.
  • Intrusion of warm air – if enough warm air works its way into this storm off the warm waters of the Atlantic (where above normal temperatures thus far this winter have kept the sea surface temperatures abnormally warm), then some areas could see a rain/sleet mix for periods of time. Forecasters are overall confident the window for this mixing is small enough that overall totals won’t be dented too much, though.
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The closer this storm center tracks to the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark, the better the chances become for our are to get a lot of snow. Climatologically, Nor’easters that track closest to this benchmark have been the biggest snowmakers for the NYC region.