Category Archives: Weekend

NYC Weather Update – Jan 11, 2016

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This week will feature below normal temperatures for the most part, with a chance at some snow showers for the first time this winter coming along with an Alberta clipper type system tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours. Later on this week into the weekend, we are looking at a more potent and complex storm system that could bring a mix of precipitation to the area.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with scattered clouds and a high temperature in the mid-30s. A breezy day with west winds in the 15-20mph range.

Tuesday – partly sunny to start the day, with high temperatures hitting the upper-30s to about 40ºF. Snow flurries/rain could mix together in the afternoon. As temperatures drop after sunset, precipitation should transition to all snow. Due to the quick moving nature of this clipper system, we’re not really expecting any accumulating snow.

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Wednesday – following the passage of the clipper system, winds pick up again from the west in the 15-20mph range, delivering a cold day with partly sunny skies and high temperatures right about freezing.

Thursday – slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the mid-30s, and a calmer wind so not as much of a biting cold.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 8, 2016

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With a quiet, though at times very cold, weather week behind us, we look towards a weekend that will bring with it much warmer temperatures along with unsettled weather. Looking into the long term, forecast models are hinting at a possible strong coastal low/Nor’easter hitting the area about 10 days from now. Of course, this far out, forecasts will vary wildly, as has been the case the last week or so with forecast models. However, if the right conditions combine, we could see our first big snow event of the season.

Rest of today – clouds increasing steadily during the day with an approaching storm system. High temperatures about normal in the low-40s.

Saturday – the first portion of a storm system for this weekend moves in during the day Saturday, however, precipitation will be limited during the day due to a lack of significant lift in the atmosphere. Cloudy, with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Sunday – the bulk of the rain will arrive along with a warm front Sunday. Periods of heavy rain are possible throughout the afternoon, tapering off during the evening hours. Depending on if we get any breaks in the clouds, we could see temperatures approach 60ºF during the day.

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Monday – once the the low pressure system above exits the area, pulling through a trailing cold front, temperatures will once again plummet back into the upper-30s with clear skies.

NYC New Years Weekend Weather Update – Dec 31, 2015

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The New Year will finally bring some more seasonable weather to the region as temperatures dip in response to a building area of high pressure and west-northwest winds over the weekend. It will be an uneventful weekend otherwise, with generally dry conditions.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy to partly sunny with high temperatures around 50ºF. For New Year’s Eve celebrations tonight, temperatures will drop rather quickly into the low-40s by midnight.

Friday (New Years Day) – cool, though still above normal with high temperatures in the low-40s and sunny skies.

Saturday – cool and dry conditions prevail with high temperatures again in the low-40s. Overnight lows will be in the low-30s.

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Sunday – basically a clone of Saturday, mostly sunny, highs in the low-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 18, 2015

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We get a taste of cool weather this weekend, with high temperatures at or slightly below normal for Saturday and Sunday, before we rebound strongly into much above average and possibly record-breaking warmth once again by mid-week next week. Saturday in particular will be feel quite brisk, with a stiff wind from the west dropping wind chills into the 30s. There could even be a couple snow flurries north and west of the city!

Rest of today – mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with high temperatures hovering in the mid-50s. Temperatures will fall rapidly to near freezing in the city overnight.

Saturday – the low pressure system that was responsible for the soaking rains Thursday will continue to intensify as it moves over the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. As a high pressure center builds to the south, a tightening pressure gradient will yield stiff winds in the 15-25mph range on Saturday. This, combined with a blast of cold air behind the cold front that passed yesterday, will result in high temperatures only in the low-40s, with wind chills making it feel like the 30s throughout the day. There could be enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple flurries over the interior!

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Sunday – high pressure will remain in control Sunday, so expect sunny skies, and with the high pressure center closer to us, the pressure gradient will diminish. Winds should likewise calm down, and it will feel considerably less raw with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Monday – temperatures will jump into the low-mid 50s as the high pressure above moves to our east and return flow of warmer air from the south and southwest begins to take hold.

 

White Christmas? Not a chance.

Looking ahead at the week of Christmas coming up – not only will there be no chance of a white Christmas on the Eastern Seaboard, we could be looking at record-breaking warmth again with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s! The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook and 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook are both strongly confident (> 90% probability) that we will see warmer than average temperatures.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 10, 2015

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The weekend coming up will see some unusually warm weather coming our way. In fact, high temperatures on Sunday may well approach record-breaking territory at 60ºF or even higher. This near-record warm trend won’t last through next week, so definitely take advantage of this weekend for some outdoor activities.

Rest of today – partly sunny with highs in the upper 50s.

Friday – with a warm front passing through overnight, areas of fog may develop early Friday morning. Once the fog clears, we should see mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures will again be in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.
Saturday – temperatures continue to warm into the low-60s on Saturday with partly sunny skies. High pressure firmly entrenched over the Southeast will be the primary driver allowing a surge of warm air to enter our region.
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Sunday – we could see record-breaking warmth across the region Sunday, with this high pressure still in control and a cold front approaching from the west, increasing the flow of warm air into the area. High temperatures should easily break 60ºF. If cloud cover is less than currently expected, records are likely to be broken.
Monday – the aforementioned cold front makes its approach across the region, bringing us a good chance at some meaningful rain. High temperatures preceding the cold front’s passage are still expected to be quite warm, near 60ºF.
Short-term Temperature Outlook & El Niño’s Impact
Although temperatures will cool somewhat after the cold front passes on Monday, they will nonetheless remain a good deal above average. Seasonal average high temperatures for this time in December are in the low-40s! Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 temperature outlook has our region at a near certain probability of seeing above average temperatures.
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This coheres well with generally understood impacts of an El Niño winter in North America.
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NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 04, 2015

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A quite and mild weekend is in store for the region with high pressure in control of the weather throughout the period. Temperatures should climb steadily as winds shift and persist from the southwest. We could see high temperatures near 60ºF by Sunday.

Rest of today – clear to mostly sunny, with highs around 50.

Saturday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-50s.

Sunday – milder, and sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.

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Monday – clouds look to be increasing on Monday with a storm system approaching from the south expected to pass on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler in the mid-50s.

Seasonal Climate Outlooks

As we are entering into the winter, it’s worth looking ahead at what the seasonal climate out looks are from the Climate Prediction Center.

Drought conditions are expected to improve over many areas of the nation, and the persistent moderate drought in our region is forecast to end.

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Temperature and precipitation are forecast to be above normal for the region. As you’ll note from the images below, some fairly significant deviations from normal are expected across large portions of the United States, due in large part to the effects of a strong El Niño that’s been gripping the Eastern and Central Pacific for months now.

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The chart below shows you the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific – notice that a large swathe of the equatorial Pacific from about the international date line east is experiencing extremely warm temperatures for this time of year – a full 5ºC above normal in large areas. This is why climate forecasters can be more confident than usual in their outlooks for temperature and precipitation this season.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 27, 2015

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Thanksgiving has given us some spectacular weather to be grateful for, but a cool down is in the cards for the region as we enter this weekend. A cold front will be pushing through the area slowly Saturday, bringing some rain, then colder temperatures as cooler air from Canada filters in behind the front. By Monday, high temperatures will only be in the upper-40s.

Rest of today – increasing clouds later today, but for the rest of the afternoon, warm with record-breaking high temperatures in the low-mid 60s.

Saturday – rain likely later in the day, cloudy with cooler temperatures in the mid-50s.noaad2

Sunday – a lingering chance of showers with mostly cloudy skies and a high near 50ºF.

Monday – cooler, but dry, with temperatures only in the upper-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 19, 2015

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A soaking rainstorm passes through the area later today and then paves the way for cooler, drier air to take over this weekend. By the end of this weekend, temperatures will only be in the low-50s and even upper-40s going into Monday. Looking ahead, temperatures return to normal ranges in the low-50s next week before another warmup around Thanksgiving. Currently, it looks as though the first week of December will open up with cooler than average temperatures.

Rest of today – cloudy and warm with a steady wind from the southeast. Scattered light rain is occurring across parts of the area now. The heavier rain should begin falling later this afternoon (around the PM rush) as more moisture works its way in from the south and the storm system closes in, providing better atmospheric conditions for rain. The rains are still much needed for most of the Tri-State area (in particular Souther Connecticut and Long Island) that remains in the grip of a moderate drought.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 5PM EST
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 5PM EST

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Friday – rain ends overnight into Friday morning. Skies clear rapidly with temperatures topping out in the mid-50s.

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind the frontal boundary that will pass early Friday. This high pressure will shift winds to the west and then northwest, bringing in cooler, drier air from Canada. Temperatures will only be around 50 on Saturday as a result.

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Sunday – pretty much a clone of Saturday, mostly sunny skies, cool with highs around 50ºF.

Monday – cooler, with high temperatures that may struggle to hit 50ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 12, 2015

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Periods of rain this afternoon give way to drier weather over the weekend as a cold front passes through late today into the overnight hours. Drier weather prevails this weekend, though with the passage of this cold front, gusty northwest winds will enter the region, bringing in significantly cooler temperatures for Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday as we enter another period of slightly above normal temperatures.

Rest of today – showers have moved out of the area at this point, but a few scattered showers may still pop up later today. Otherwise, cloudy with high temperatures already peaking around 60.

Friday – mostly sunny with winds from the west in the 15-20mph range, gusts up to 30mph.

Saturday – winds again in the 15-20mph range with gusts up to 30-35mph. Sunny skies, but temperatures well below normal in the upper-40s, highs may not break 50 in the city. With the winds, it will feel like temperatures are in the upper-30s to low-40s.

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Sunday – winds finally start subsiding, and temperatures will rebound back to around normal in the mid-50s with sunny skies.

Monday – as the high pressure depicted above begins moving to our east, southwest flow on its backside will bring temperatures back into the low-60s.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 5, 2015

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The warm trend we’ve enjoyed this week comes to an abrupt halt over the weekend as we return to seasonable highs in the upper-50s. We are due to enjoy a couple more days of much above average warmth beforehand, as we’re now in the warm sector south of a warm front that has pushed through and west of a cold front due in late Friday and into the overnight hours Saturday.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a high in the upper-60s. A slight chance of rain especially later in the afternoon.

Friday – we’ll be firmly within the warm sector tomorrow with a steady southwesterly flow. Warm air will work its way into the area and yield near record-breaking temperatures in the mid-70s, and possibly even warmer if there are any breaks for sun. There will be another chance at rain tomorrow afternoon and evening as the cold front nears and passes through.  noaad2

Saturday – a marked change in sensible weather is on tap for Saturday once the cold front passes through the region. Skies should clear from west to east over the day, but high temperatures will only be in the low-60s.

Sunday – even cooler, with highs only in the mid-50s under sunny skies.