The pleasant weather we’ve had the past two days gives way to a hotter, more humid feel appropriate for August. High pressure that has been giving us this wonderful weather will be steadily moving east. Temperatures will warm and the air will moisten as winds shift to the south and southwest. We’ll likely see temperatures at or above 90ºF for the weekend.
Rest of today – clear skies with comfortable high temperatures in the low 80s.
Friday – warmer, with high temperatures rising into the mid-80s. Humidity will begin to increase.
Saturday – probably will be the warmest day of the weekend with highs at or slightly above 90ºF. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible especially inland, though unlikely at the coast.
Sunday – just a tad less hot as a weak cold front pushes through, but still sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s.
The end of this week and weekend will be characterized by comfortable conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front from Canada will be approaching from the west by Sunday, however, this frontal boundary looks to weaken as it nears the area. There should be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms, but it is likely most areas stay dry through the weekend.
Rest of today – high pressure over the Ohio Valley will yield sunny skies, with a high in the mid-80s. Dry air moving from the west will make for a pleasant feel today.
Friday – high pressure remains in control tomorrow, providing for conditions almost identical to today, with highs again in the mid-80s under sunny skies with low humidity.
Saturday – although the high pressure center will weaken somewhat as it moves east on Saturday, it will still dominate our sensible weather, leading to yet another day of basically the same weather conditions with highs in the mid-80s and plenty of sun.
Sunday – with the high continuing to weaken and move to the southeast, we get a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary originating in Canada moving into the region. Rain chances aren’t all that high, though, so it’s likely most areas stay dry. Highs again in the mid-80s with increasing cloud cover.
Global Forecast System model output for Sunday at 11AM EDT
Drought Update
Drought conditions over New York state have drastically abated since the beginning of the month, especially in upstate regions. However, moderate drought persists over parts of Long Island.
Drought index for New York State, areas in yellow indicate slight drought, while areas shaded in tan indicate moderate drought.
Pleasant weather today will give way to more unsettled weather for Independence Day. Showers are likely during the day Saturday, however, it appears that rain should move out before the fireworks start. Sunday sees a return to sunny weather, with the beginning of next week starting off dry.
Rest of today – sunny skies should yield comfortable high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.
Saturday (Independence Day) – an area of low pressure is forecast to pass to the south of Long Island Saturday. Rain showers are possible during the day along a nearly stationary frontal along this low pressure center. With the low pressure to our south, we will be experiencing southeasterly, easterly, then northeasterly winds associated with the counterclockwise rotation around the low. These winds and mostly cloudy skies will serve to suppress high temperatures to well below normal in the mid-70s range.
Now, the all-important question: will it rain during the fireworks displays? As of now, it appears that the bulk of any rain is expected to have moved offshore or east of the area by 8PM Saturday, which should allow for dry conditions during fireworks displays.
North American Model high resolution simulated radar for 8PM EDT Saturday
Sunday – conditions improve rapidly during the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday. Sunday will feature sunny skies, and highs in the low-80s.
Monday – an increase in cloud cover will herald the next week, with high temperatures remaining in the low-80s.
Drought Update
Drought conditions continue to abate in the region with multiple rounds of significant precipitation events. However, moderate drought persists in Eastern Long Island, as depicted in the beige shaded areas below.
The first half of this first full week of the summer felt very much like mid-summer, with hot, humid conditions and even some severe thunderstorms. The second half of this week, along with the weekend will feel a lot more like late spring, with Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning shaping up to be a washout.
Rest of today – pleasant, sunny skies, with a wind from the northwest, will yield comfortable high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Friday – an area of low pressure will be tracking eastward from the Midwest along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that will be positioned over southern New Jersey. The timing of this wave of low pressure will be overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Rain should end by noon Friday. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures will only top out in the mid-70s.
North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for Friday at 8AM EDT
Saturday – the respite from the rain will be short-lived. Saturday morning into the early afternoon should remain rain-free, though temperatures will again be suppressed in the low-mid 70s. Another, more potent area of low pressure will make its approach from the west during the day Saturday. The precipitation shield associated with this low should begin to fill in over the area beginning in the mid-afternoon hours. Periods of showers will continue falling, with moderate to heavy rain at times, throughout the remainder of the day and overnight Saturday.
North American Model high resolution simulated radar for Saturday at 2PM EDT
Sunday – rain begins to taper off on Sunday from south to north as the center of the low pressure responsible for this storm moves to our northeast. Rain should end in the early afternoon hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures in the mid-70s. Rain from last week has put a dent in drought conditions across New York state, but areas of Central upstate New York and eastern Long Island could still use this rain. The downside is that it will put a damper on many outdoor plans for the first full weekend of the summer, and the first weekend after school ends here.
Monday – conditions improve on Monday as the low pressure continues to pull away. High temperatures should remain in the mid-70s with cloud cover decreasingly steadily.
In contrast to last weekend, where Sunday was the better half, the reverse will be true this weekend. Remnants of Tropical Depression Bill will be moving over us on Sunday, bringing the potential for extended periods of showers and heavy rain. It is hoped that this much needed rain will put a dent in the persistent moderate drought conditions in the region.
Rest of today – there is a small chance for thunderstorms up until around lunchtime today, after which skies should gradually clear. High temperatures are expected to top out in the upper-80s to near 90.
Saturday – high pressure will be shifting to the east, bringing in an onshore flow, keeping temperatures cooler in the upper-70s under partly sunny skies. Chances for rain will be increasing steadily through the evening such that by the overnight hours, periods of steady rain should be the norm.
Sunday – As referenced above, remnants of Tropical Depression Bill, still carrying tropical moisture, will be moving over the region. There is still some uncertainty as to whether the areas of heaviest rain will move further south and over the ocean, however, at this point it seems likely that Sunday will feature periods of steady rain, heavy at times. Rainfall probability and rainfall totals will drop precipitously from south to north, since the storm center is expected to track to our south. We could pick up as much as 1″-1.5″ of rain over Long Island, which would be a blessing since this area is still in the grip of moderate drought conditions. With clouds and rain, high temperatures should top out around 80.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for SundayNorth American Model high resolution output for Sunday at 11AM EDT Drought coverage in New York as of this week
Monday – conditions improve following the passage of the storm on Sunday, with high temperatures rebounding into the mid-upper 80s under mostly sunny skies.
We will likely be experiencing one of the hottest days of the year so far, with temperatures expected to top out in the upper-80s and into the low-90s in a few spots this afternoon. The warm weather continues through Saturday, when an area of high pressure over eastern Canada brings us some relief from the heat. In terms of the weekend, Sunday will definitely be the better day, with cooler temperatures, but dry weather.
Rest of today – temperatures are expected to top out right around 90 in the city. Increasingly humid air will lead to an uncomfortable feeling day. There is some potential for thunderstorms, some possibly marginally severe, occurring in the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches from the north and west. The orientation of the frontal boundary and primary storm vector will align in such a way that training of storms could occur, leading to the same locations getting hit by multiple storm cells.
In addition, an air quality alert is active today, with PM2.5 particle being the primary driver in pushing the Air Quality Index into the low 100s (unhealthy for sensitive groups).
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.Air quality forecast for today
Friday – the cold front that pushes through today with some possible thunderstorms will stall just south of the area, then push back north through the area as a warm front Friday. This means we will not get any respite from the heat, with highs again expected to be in the upper-80s to near 90, and another chance at more thunderstorms. There will be more sun Friday than today, but atmospheric dynamics are not expected to be supportive of severe weather.
Saturday – the warm front that passes through Friday comes back yet again as a cold front as it gets dragged along by the low pressure center moving to the northeast. This means yet another chance for thunderstorms, and ahead of that, warm temperatures remaining in the upper-80s.
Sunday – the weather finally settles down and stabilizes as a high pressure center builds to the north in behind the cold front passing on Saturday. This should lead to cooler temperatures and sunny skies for Sunday, when temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s.
Monday – another frontal boundary will be making its approach from the west on Monday, however, the timing of its approach is such that chances for rain will be low on Monday. Temperatures should again be comfortable around 80.
The weekend offered us some respite from what had been a cool, wet week. This week starts off with the potential for more drenching rain and thunderstorms before conditions calm. By the second half of the week, we will experience a noticeable increase in temperatures, with highs on Thursday possibly touching 90 in a few spots.
Rest of today – cloud cover should clear out for the next few hours until the next chance at rain comes later this evening. Depending on how much sun we get, high temperatures could reach the mid-upper 70s. Later this evening and overnight, we should see some showers in advance of an approaching cold front. While thunderstorms are expected west of the Hudson, the stabilizing influence of onshore sea breeze bringing in a marine air layer will serve to limit thunderstorms from persisting across NYC and points east along the coast. In any case, the heaviest rain appears to hold off until after 8PM.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 1AM EDT Tuesday.
Tuesday – mostly cloudy day with highs near 80. The aforementioned cold front draws nearer, giving us more chances at showers and thunderstorms, particularly later in the day. As with today, stronger storms will likely be limited to inland areas to the north and west that will not be affected by a sea breeze.
Wednesday – weak high pressure builds in for Wednesday behind the cold front. Generally sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s.
Thursday – humid and warm air flowing in from the southwest ahead of another frontal system will raise temperatures on Thursday to near 90ºF. This will feel like a late-July summer day with the high humidity.
We have struggled to reach normal temperatures this week, with plenty of rain and Wednesday as the only sunny break. We end this week with more cool, damp weather, before transitioning to warmer, drier conditions this weekend. Portions of the area received anywhere between 2-4″ of rain between Sunday night and Tuesday night, which will help improve drought conditions, however, these rainfall totals also led to flash flooding across large portions of the area.
Rest of today – cloudy, with a small chance for isolated light showers, cool with temperatures topping out only in the low-mid 60s, about 10ºF below normal for this time of year.
Atmospheric setup favoring the cool, cloudy, damp weather
Friday – more clouds and cool weather, with this easterly onshore flow regime sticking around for one more day. High temperatures will again be only in the mid-60s, much below normal. There is a slightly higher chance Friday for scattered showers, but nothing like the soaking we got earlier this week.
Saturday – some improvement in conditions will take place Saturday as high pressure starts building from the west. Partly sunny skies may give way to more sun, with high temperatures warmer near 80.
Sunday – high pressure moves to our east, allowing us to enjoy another pleasant, dry day, with high temperatures in the mid-70s.
Monday – a frontal system approaches the area. Ahead of the front, warmer air will flow in from the southwest, giving us temperatures at or above normal near 80ºF. As the front nears, thunderstorms and showers are possible across the region.
Arctic Jet Stream Slowing Leading to Increased Incidence and Duration of Extreme Weather?
The massive quantities of snow that fell over the Northeast this past winter, the flooding rains over Texas last month, the enduring drought over California, and the asphalt-melting heatwave in India have all raised the question of what is causing this apparently increased incidence of long-duration extreme weather events. One possible explanation offered by researchers at Rutgers University is that the polar jet stream circling the Arctic has been slowing.
Jet streams are generated by two factors: the rotational energy of the Earth spinning on its axis, and the pressure gradient between two airmasses of varying temperatures. In the case of the polar jet circling the Arctic, rapid warming of the Arctic over the last couple decades has led to a decreased thermal and pressure gradient between air over the Arctic and air directly to the south. Researchers posit that this effect has led to a slowing of the polar jet stream. Since the jet stream is responsible for moving large (synoptic) scale weather patterns, any affect on its speed and orientation can have dramatic impacts for widespread regions of the world. In this case, the slowing polar jet stream is theorized as the mechanism behind the prolonged effects of the weather events mentioned above.
Yesterday, portions of our area got some much needed rain from a round of thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal trough. Today, we get another shot at rain and thunderstorms as the primary cold front actually pushes through. Behind that front, things cool off and dry out for Friday, before the humidity returns on Saturday. Things should stay dry Saturday, but we will see a more substantial chance at widespread rainfall Sunday with the passage of another cold front. Also of note, the National Hurricane Center released its outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, calling for a below normal season.
Rest of today – clouds give way to sun with warm temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon. The atmospheric setup today is a bit more favorable to showers and thunderstorms being able to persist into NYC and western Long Island, unlike yesterday when these showers essentially died out as they hit the stable marine air layer near the coast. The exact location of where storms form and move into will still be tricky to pinpoint even at this time.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output simulated radar for 3PM EST today.
Friday – once the frontal boundary passes through later today, it will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass for Friday. Temperatures should top out in the mid-upper 70s (still 5-10ºF above normal) under sunny skies.
Saturday – temperatures will be slightly warmer in the low-80s on Saturday with an increase in humidity as well. There could be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms later in the day as well.
Sunday – another cold front passes through the region Sunday, bringing with it the chance for more substantial and widespread showers. Temperatures will also cool off to around normal, in the low-mid 70s.
2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
The National Hurricane Center released its initial outlook for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season that officially starts on June 1st. As you’ll see from the graphic below, forecasters are calling for a below normal season with 6-11 named storms (tropical storms with sustained winds greater than 39mph). Of these named storms, forecasters think 3-6 have a chance to intensify into hurricanes (maximum sustained winds greater than 74mph), and of those hurricanes 0-2 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, maximum sustained winds greater than 111mph).
The primary reason for the 70% probability of a below normal season is the disruptive effect of El Niño in the Eastern Pacific, which is known to alter the pressure and air currents over the tropical Atlantic, dampening the formation of hurricanes. On the other hand, the above average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific associated with El Niño are expected to induce an above average Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon season. Read the full statement from the NHC here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html
We’ve had a cloudier, cooler middle stretch of the week than expected, however, the payoff will be a splendid Memorial Day weekend. All three days of the long weekend look to be suitable for outdoor activity, with Sunday probably being the best day with warm highs in the mid-70s. There could be a chance of thunderstorms late Monday, and this will bear monitoring.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy today due to the influence of a low pressure system to the south, which will be moving out over the Atlantic today. There could be a few showers associated with this coastal low, but these would be primarily confined to NYC and Long Island. Otherwise, northeast winds associated with the low along with clouds overhead will act to suppress high temperatures in the low-60s.
Friday – showers are possible overnight from today into Friday morning, then clouds should clear in the morning, although they may reappear for later in the afternoon. Still, it will be a considerably sunnier and warmer day with high temperatures in the mid-70s.
Saturday – high pressure builds to our west giving us sunny skies, with the tradeoff being cooler temperatures and winds coming in from the north and northwest. Highs should top out in the mid-60s.
Sunday – once the high above shifts to the east, clockwise flow around it will turn to the south and southwest, meaning we will get much warmer air coming into the region. High temperatures should be able to climb into the mid-upper 70s, especially if cloud cover is minimized.
Memorial Day Monday – it looks as though a warm front will be trying to push its way through the area on Monday, so there may be some chance of thunderstorms or showers along this frontal boundary, but it’s not easy to pinpoint how wide the coverage of these would be, or what the duration is at this point. Outside of this chance for some precipitation, the rest of Monday should be pleasant with highs again in the mid-70s, albeit with more cloud cover than Sunday.
