Category Archives: Weekend

NYC Weekend Weather (Brooklyn Half Marathon) – May 14, 2015

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This week ends off with pleasant, sunny, dry weather, and temperatures slightly above average in the low 70s. We get a chance at some much needed rain (there were actually brush fires yesterday, giving you an idea how dry it’s been), but the unfortunate part is that the rain will likely occur in periods on Saturday. Sunday will be better, as it doesn’t look like the rain sticks around that long.

Rest of today – a gorgeous spring day with high pressure in control, yielding a cloud-free and seasonable day with highs in the low 70s.

High pressure firmly entrenched over us today and tomorrow.
High pressure firmly entrenched over the region today and tomorrow.

Friday – expecting more of the same during the day, mostly sunny and mild with temperatures topping out again in the low 70s. Later Friday night, there could be a few showers and thunderstorms that develop as an approaching frontal system nears the area.

Saturday – lingering showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the morning, but it does not appear the entire day will be a washout. We’ll be in the warm sector which should allow for temperatures to approach 80 or slightly higher, depending on the cloud cover situation in the afternoon hours. Sadly, I know this is not what all you runners that are going to be doing the Brooklyn Half Marathon want to hear.

North American Model high resolution output for Saturday at 11AM, showing the possibility of showers.
North American Model high resolution output for Saturday at 11AM, showing the possibility of showers.

Sunday – at this point, it appears Sunday will be dry, with more clouds than sun, and temperatures remaining warm in the upper-70s. A blocking high pressure center over the Gulf of Maine should be enough to prevent rain from entering the area. gfs_namer_108_1000_850_thick

Monday – the high pressure depicted above will retreat eastward a bit, which would allow for a better chance of rain later Monday evening/night into Tuesday. During the day, conditions should be dry with partly sunny skies and a high near 70.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 8, 2015

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Another splendid weekend is in store for us with warm temperatures in the upper-70s and near 80. Subtropical Storm Ana marks the first named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It is not expected to bring us any direct impacts, however, it could bring moisture our way that could supplement a storm system forecast to pass through early next week.

Rest of today – early fog has burned off, skies have cleared, and temperatures should top out near 80. We have been under the persistent influence of a high pressure center that has been responsible for pumping in this warm, moist air from the south.

Saturday – clouds and sun, with sunny breaks more likely to appear near the coast in the afternoon. High temperatures should be a bit cooler in the mid-70s with the influence of clouds, however, any sunny breaks could easily shoot temperatures up a few degrees.

Sunday – once again, Sunday comes through as the best day of the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-80s.USA_East

Monday – clouds for the most part as a frontal boundary approaches from our north and west. High temperatures will still be quite mild with the influence of high pressure bringing southerly winds, expecting a high again near 80. Some chance for afternoon thunderstorms to develop as that frontal boundary nears.

Tuesday – probably our best shot at getting measurable rainfall as the aforementioned front passes through. Some left over moisture from Ana could work its way into this setup. Ahead of the front, temperatures should still rise into the upper-70s. It’ll be noticeably cooler for the second half of the week.

 

Subtropical Storm Ana

We have our first named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season which doesn’t officially begin until June 1st. Subtropical Storm Ana developed out of a weak tropical disturbance off of Florida. This just goes to show, a tropical cyclone can form under the right conditions at any time of the year.

Visible satellite loop of Subtropical Storm Ana this morning - Geostationary Satellite Server
Visible satellite loop of Subtropical Storm Ana this morning – Geostationary Satellite Server

Subtropical Storm Ana fortunately does not have much time to organize and intensify before it makes landfall on the coast of the Carolinas. This should limit any serious damage, however, these areas will likely experience prolonged high winds, torrential rain, and coastal flooding.

Global Forecast System ensemble forecast tracks for Ana
Global Forecast System ensemble forecast tracks for Ana

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 30, 2015

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This week ends with clouds and some small chance of rain, but we’re in for a real sweet stretch of pleasant conditions and warmer than average temperatures from Sunday into early next week. In fact, we could be hitting 80 by Tuesday ahead of a cold front that could bring some thunderstorms with it, before we cool back down into the low-70s, which is still above normal.

Friday – due to the influence of a weak area of low pressure to our south, we will be seeing generally cloudy skies, with some very slight chance for scattered showers in the southernmost portions of the region. Temperatures will be moderate by northeast winds circulating counterclockwise around the low pressure to our south, yielding high temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60, just a few degrees below normal.

Saturday – as the aforementioned low pressure system slides off to the east over the Atlantic, clouds should gradually decrease. Temperatures will also rebound somewhat to around normal with a high in the mid-60s. However, there could be just enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple scattered showers or thunderstorms.

 

gfs_namer_081_1000_850_thickSunday – by this time, an area of high pressure will have developed over the Carolinas. This setup will favor the influx of a warm airmass from the Gulf of Mexico. Skies will clear, and temperatures will be noticeably warmer in the low 70s.

Monday – another gorgeous day to start the week, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-70s (10º above normal). Don’t say I told you so, but if there were a day to skip work, this would be it.

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.
Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.

Tuesday – although it will be even warmer Tuesday than it will be Monday, with highs possibly topping 80, it won’t be quite as pleasant since clouds will be building up ahead of a cold front that will bring our next chance at rain.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 7, 2015

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This will be my last post for another few weeks as I will be traveling in South America. This week, we have an active weather pattern that will lead to a series of periods of rain. Mid-week, temperatures will be well below normal (mid-40s), but towards the end of the week, through the weekend, and to begin next week, temperatures will rebound to slightly above normal (low 60s).

Today – we’ve already had a round of light to moderate rain pass through earlier this morning. The rest of the day will feature temperatures falling through the 50s, along with overcast skies and a light onshore flow. A second round of rain looks set to hit the area around the evening rush hour today.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 5PM today.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 5PM today.

Wednesday – a raw, rainy, and cold day is in store tomorrow. A stationary front (the reason for the extended period of unsettled weather) will push through late Tuesday as a cold front. This will allow for much colder air from Canada to enter the area, which will lead to temperatures only in the mid-40s (10-15º below normal). Periods of rain are likely throughout the day and into the night.gfs_namer_021_1000_850_thickThursday – essentially a repeat of Wednesday, with chances for rain through out the day, and cold, cloudy conditions otherwise. High temperatures again only in the mid-40s.

Friday – chances for rain continue through Friday as a warm front will be approaching from the south. Once this front pushes through, we’ll see a return to milder temperatures with highs in the low 60s (about 5-8º above normal).

9jhwbg_conus

The Weekend – conditions finally begin to improve on Saturday with a cold front having pushed through. Chance for precipitation dwindles, with highs in the low 60s. Sunday is even better with clear skies and warm temperatures near 60.

Warm Trend for Next Week

Climate Prediction Center has our region in an area of greater than 50% chance of above average temperatures for next week. This should translate to pleasant, spring like conditions for next week!

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NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 2, 2015

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We’re finally getting a run at some spring-like weather with highs above normal to end the work week. We’ll get some of those April showers that we’re hoping will lead to a fantastic display of spring flowers later this month and May. A cold front passing through Saturday will knock temperatures back a notch, and then we enter into a period of active weather dictated by a stalled frontal boundary the first half of next week.

Today – warm and breezy, with a high near or just over 60. Clouds increasing late, as a warm front approaches from the south. A chance of showers develops overnight as this warm front continues moving towards us.

 

Friday – an even warmer day on tap, with that aforementioned warm front having passed through. We’ll be in the warm sector until later when a cold front moves through. High temperatures, despite rain and clouds, should still be able to top out in the lower 60s.

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Saturday – with the cold front passing through, temperatures will drop on Saturday, back to about normal in the lower 50s. Partly sunny skies will slowly give way to more clear conditions.

Sunday – Sunday through Wednesday will be rather interesting. A frontal boundary is expected to push through Sunday, however, it is then expected to stall in our vicinity for a few days. As waves of low pressure ride along this stalled frontal boundary, the chance for showers persists through Wednesday.

A nice start to next week with above average high temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the mid-upper 50s along with those chances for rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 27, 2015

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We got a taste of what high temperatures should be like for this time of year Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold front that has since moved through will set the stage for a return to below normal temperatures to start the weekend. With a low pressure center well to our east possibly spawning an inverted trough, there is some possibility for light rain/snow mix overnight Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday and we go into next week with about normal temperatures right around 50.

Rest of today – a noticeably colder night on tap with northwesterly winds in the wake of that aforementioned cold front allowing for low temperatures to dip to about freezing. Any lingering precipitation would manifest itself as rain/snow mix, with points further east having a higher chance of seeing wet snow.

Saturday – a much colder than average day, with high temperatures only hitting the mid-upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal. Cloudy, windy, and raw, with snow showers possible early (accumulation unlikely), and rain showers later.

We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.
We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.

Sunday – things clear up nicely as that low pressure keeps pulling off to the east. Temperatures rebound a bit into the low 40s, which is still well below average.

Monday – a continued warmup ahead of a dry cold front, with high temperatures topping out around 50 under increasingly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – a pleasant, seasonable day with high temperatures in the low 50s and mostly sunny skies as high pressure comes into control.

The next chance at precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fast moving clipper system.

Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.
Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 18, 2015

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Just when we thought winter was on its last legs, and spring was on its way. Unfortunately, as the Climate Prediction Center forecast a couple weeks ago, a cool down is in the cards to end the month of March. In fact, it will get so cold that snow could accumulate Friday into Friday night. After a brief warmup, another shot of colder than normal air will return to grip the area to end off the month.

Thursday –  a below normal, but dry day with plenty of sun and high near 40.

Friday – (ironically, first day of astronomical spring) a coastal low moving offshore of the Carolinas will then track north. Enough cold air will be in place Friday, along with a persistent northerly flow with counterclockwise circulation around the low pressure center that snow is looking likely during the course of the day. Current forecast snow accumulations are on the light side, no more than 3-4″. If temperatures are even a few degrees warmer than currently forecast, we could get away with little accumulation.

Friday's storm
Friday’s storm

Saturday – things clear up quickly on Saturday with high temperatures back near normal in the mid-upper 40s.

Sunday – a dry cold front moves through Sunday, leading to a drop in temperatures to below normal in the upper 30s.

Cool Off Coming Up

The climate prediction center continues to point to cooler than normal temperatures for the last two weeks of March. One can only hope that the temperatures are not so cold as to allow for more snow, but I wouldn’t rule this possibility entirely out given some of the longer term forecast models.

6-10 temperature outlook
6-10 temperature outlook
8-14 day temperature outlook
8-14 day temperature outlook

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 13, 2015

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The weekend gets off to a wet start, with rain beginning overnight and Saturday a complete washout. By Sunday, conditions will improve and there will be a slight warmup to start the week, before we return to below normal temperatures by mid-week next week.

Rest of Today – increasing clouds will be a precursor for rain later in the overnight hours. If you plan on being out past midnight (really more like 2AM), grab an umbrella just in case. The bulk of the rain doesn’t look to begin until after 2AM, however, once it starts, it will be essentially continuous until Saturday evening. Prior to the passage of a warm front late overnight into Saturday morning, overnight lows may be cold enough to support some mixing of sleet for a brief period in the city. There is actually a freezing rain advisory for northern areas, where a colder thermal profile could support some freezing rain.

Simulated radar image for 3AM EST, Saturday, Mar 14, 2015. High Resolution Rapid Refresh model.
Simulated radar image for 3AM EST, Saturday, Mar 14, 2015. High Resolution Rapid Refresh model.

Saturday – it will actually be a mild day on Saturday subsequent to the passage of the warm front mentioned above. Any freezing rain/sleet that occurs early in the morning will quickly transition to rain, increasing in intensity during the morning. High temperatures near 50, combined with drenching rain, should be enough to finally washout any remaining snowpack near the city (although places like Long Island that got more snow this season will probably see it persist).

Sunday – there could be a couple remaining sprinkles Sunday morning, but overall, this should be a dry day, partly sunny, and breezy day. High temperatures will be near normal around the mid-40s.

Monday – it’ll be a nice day Monday with a warm front passing through, and high temperatures in the normal range near 50.

Tuesday – another day of normal temperatures near 50. A cold front pass through by Wednesday, which will lead to a cooler than normal day.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 5, 2015

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Today may be the last major winter storm of the winter for us. It certainly has been an eventful and cold winter for the books. We’ll end the week and start off this weekend and early next week with below normal temperatures, but temperatures will rise steadily throughout next week, such that we should be back to normal temperatures in the mid-upper 40s by the end of next week.

Rest of today – snow is already tapering off over the area, with widespread snowfall totals of between 4-8″ reported (largely in line with forecasts). Any remaining precipitation should completely clear the area within the next couple of hours. Screen Shot 2015-03-05 at 4.58.33 PM

Friday – we endure what we all hope will be the last day of temperatures in the low-mid 20s as cold, dry air filters in behind this storm system.

Saturday – high pressure moves in over the weekend, with temperatures Saturday edging up to around freezing.

gfs_namer_036_1000_850_thick

 

Sunday – fair weather continues, but perhaps with more clouds on Sunday as some weak impulses of energy move over areas well to the north of NYC. High temperatures will increase to the low 40s.

Monday – the warming trend continues as spring approaches, high temperatures continue to warm into the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies.

Finally leaving the Arctic air behind?

A large scale warming trend is forecast to take hold over much of the US during the medium term. Temperatures next week should warm progressively such that by next Friday, we’ll be looking at (gasp) high temperatures near 50. The week after, on the cusp of spring, almost the entirety of the Continental US is forecast to experience warmer than normal temperatures, with the exception of Texas, and New York into Southern New England. However, we are forecast to be in normal range of temperatures for this time of year, which means mid-upper 40s. Not quite flip flops and t-shirt weather, but a positive trend nonetheless.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 26, 2015

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Another cold weekend is on tap for the area, before the start of a week of active weather. It does appear that March will be coming in like a lion this year.

Rest of today – some sun, with a chance for light flurries and a high in the mid-20s.

Friday – diminishing clouds with a high temperature again in the mid-20s. High pressure begins building to our west, yielding northwesterly winds that will allow chilly, Arctic air to filter back into the area. Overnight lows Friday will be in the low teens.

Saturday – with high pressure to our west still firmly in control, it will be a sunny, but cold day, with highs again only in the mid-20s.

gfs_namer_036_1000_850_thick

 

Sunday – clouds will be increasing ahead of an approaching storm system and as high pressure exits to the east. There will be a slight warmup ahead of the storm, with temperatures topping out near freezing. Snow likely overnight, although significant accumulations are not expected.

Monday – temperatures will warm potentially into the low 40s on Monday as warm air from the southwest gets pulled into the storm system. There may be some mixed precipitation along the coastal plain, with all snow elsewhere, mostly early in the day.9khwbg_conusTuesday – following the passage of the storm on Monday, temperatures dip back to around freezing, ahead of another storm system that will be impacting the area Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm has a greater potential significant precipitation.