Category Archives: Weekend

NYC Weather Update – Labor Day Weekend

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , ,

Rejoice! The long awaited Labor Day Weekend is upon us. Although I’d love to say that the weather will be fantastic throughout, but unfortunately there will be a few disturbances traversing the region the second half of this weekend. Thunderstorms accompanying these disturbances may literally rain on the annual West Indian Day Parade in Brooklyn on Monday.

Friday – the remainder of today will be a picture perfect, fall-like day with high temperatures hovering right around 80. A pleasant, dry airmass is in place in association with an area of high pressure that’s currently sitting over us.

Saturday – essentially a repeat of Friday, but with a bit more cloud cover.

Sunday – high temperatures on Sunday will be considerably warmer than Saturday, since the area of high pressure sitting over us now will have moved to the east, building up southwesterly winds and allowing for an influx warm air to penetrate the region. Expect more humid and warm highs between the mid-upper 80s. A weak frontal boundary will be approaching Sunday, and transit the region late Sunday into Monday. This will be our first shot at rain and thunderstorms, some of which may deliver some heavy rain.

Screen Shot 2014-08-29 at 8.13.20 AM

 

Labor Day – the timing of the aforementioned frontal passage will be critical in terms of sensible weather Monday. It currently looks like Monday will be partly cloudy, with highs again in the mid-80s. There will be an increasing chance of scattered thunderstorms later in the day Monday leading into Tuesday as another weakening cold front nears the area.

Tuesday – the return to the work week will continue to feature warm and humid highs in the mid-upper 80s and a continued chance of thunderstorms as that cold front works its way through.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 25, 2014

NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , ,

We have a fairly straightforward weather week ahead of us leading into the Labor Day Weekend. Currently, our region is sitting under an area of high pressure, which will be sliding to the southeast. As it does so, winds will shift to the south and southwest, allowing the entry of a warm and humid airmass that’s been responsible for brutal triple digit heat in the southern tier of the country.

Tuesday – temperatures will continue to climb into the mid-upper 80s under clear skies due to the aforementioned atmospheric dynamics.

Wednesday – this will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures approaching, if not topping 90, in some spots around the region. Some clouds will start to build in ahead of a cold front that is forecast to push through the area late Wednesday or Thursday. There is some discrepancy between different forecast models as to whether there will be a significant chance for precipitation with this frontal passage. Given this set up, it is likely even if there is rain, it won’t be widespread in coverage or long in duration.Screen Shot 2014-08-25 at 6.18.10 PMThursday – following the passage of the cold front, temperatures will fall back into the low-mid 80s for Thursday. Mostly sunny skies will return with high pressure moving in behind the cold front.

Friday – should be a similar day in most respects to Thursday, with slightly cooler highs around 80.

Labor Day Weekend – currently, Saturday looks like the best day of the long weekend, with high pressure still in control over the region. High temperatures should be around 80 again with mostly sunny skies. Unfortunately, it does appear that there will be an increasing chance of precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Monday. More on this later in the week.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 22, 2014

NYC, Outside of NYC, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

We had a solid round of rain from some showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area overnight. Over the weekend, high pressure will start to build into the area, ushering in a period of calm, pleasant, and seasonable weather.

Saturday & Sunday – clouds will diminish later Saturday, and by Sunday we’ll see mostly clear skies. Both days will feature high temperatures around 80.

Monday – as you see below, by Monday an area of high pressure will be firmly entrenched over our region. This high pressure area will persist through the middle of the week, giving us fair conditions and pleasant highs in the low 80s.

Screen Shot 2014-08-22 at 12.38.19 PM
High pressure firmly entrenched in the Northeast for the beginning of next week.

Tuesday & Wednesday will look and feel essentially the same with highs in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.

Our next chance of rain will be later in the week, perhaps Thursday into Friday with the arrival of a cold front from the west.

In the Tropics

There’s a tropical disturbance currently positioned offshore of Puerto Rico that will very likely become the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s third named storm, Cristobal. You can already begin to see the storm organizing, as over the last day or so, a circulation has become evident, and strong thunderstorms are forming in the northern semicircle are also apparent (see the classic cauliflower tops). Outflow bands are also forming up (thin wispy clouds north and northeast of the center).

Screen Shot 2014-08-22 at 12.49.40 PM
High resolution satellite image of the tropical disturbance

This storm will fell some negative impacts from the high terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. As you can see, the southern semicircle is considerably less organized than the northern.

As for the track of the storm, you can see the rather large spread between the different forecast models, which is not surprising given that the storm is still in its early stages. Note that there is an outlier model solution showing landfall on the Mid-Atlantic. This is unlikely at this point, but worth noting. It seems, given the conditions ahead of the storm, that this will become Tropical Storm Cristobal in the next couple days, and may become Hurricane Cristobal shortly thereafter.

Screen Shot 2014-08-22 at 12.39.08 PM

NYC Weekend Weather – Return of the Polar Vortex? – Jul 11, 2014

NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , , ,

You may have heard from media reports that the dreaded polar vortex is set to make a return to the Eastern US during the middle of the coming week. I’ll discuss that in detail below. First, for the weekend forecast:

Today & Saturday – a very pleasant couple of days in the wake of the cold front that finally pushed through our area yesterday. You can feel a marked drop in humidity, and temperatures are much more comfortable. Saturday, high temperatures should top out in the mid 80s in NYC.

Sunday – a chance for afternoon thunderstorms and a high in the mid 80s, chance of rain increasing through out the day into the overnight hours.

Polar Vortex?

Forecast models are in good agreement that beginning Tuesday into most of the rest of next week, an upper air vortex (see below, the trough with an inclosed region surrounded by the blue arrows) will drop into the Midwest and Northeast from the northern regions of Canada. This vortex can be technically referred to as a polar vortex, a term that instantly revives media hype about how cold it will be. But keep in mind, during the summer, polar regions heat up as well, so even the coldest polar airmass and vortexes are much milder than their winter counterparts. Furthermore, the influence of the sun is quite strong as we just passed the summer solstice, so the sun is sitting at a very high angle each day and is highly effective at heating the air quickly. Hence, temperatures are expected to be much below normal for some areas, but we’re not talking about snow or ice.

Screen Shot 2014-07-11 at 1.13.53 PM
Upper air forecast from GFS for Monday, 8PM EDT, 500mb absolute vorticity.

Screen Shot 2014-07-11 at 1.25.37 PM

Next Week

There will be a good deal of energy traveling with the polar vortex, so we’re expecting a somewhat disturbed pattern of weather for the beginning of next week. Tuesday & Wednesday will see the best chances for rain and thunderstorms with a cold front approaching us from the west. Before the cold front, we’ll still see temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with a chance for thunderstorms Monday. Once the cold front passes, we’ll be right in the mix with the “polar” air mass, so our high temperatures will drop into the low 80s, and overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s for the latter part of the week.
Screen Shot 2014-07-11 at 1.39.15 PM

Weekend Weather, Hurricane Arthur Update – Jul 4, 2014 @ 10AM EDT

Cool Images, NYC, Outside of NYC, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , ,

As of 9AM EDT, Hurricane Arthur has weakened somewhat from its peak intensity as a Category 2, and sustained winds have declined to 90mph. However, its eye is still clearly visible, and as you can see below, the storm is maintaining a symmetrical appearance with good outflow in all quadrants, meaning this is still quite a powerful storm. As Arthur continues moving northeast, it is expected to weaken rapidly upon entering much cooler waters and with increasing vertical shear from the codl front seen below.
Screen Shot 2014-07-04 at 9.41.32 AM
Track Forecast

Forecast models are in very close agreement about Arthur’s track over the next 12 hours or so. As you see below, they are tightly clustered around the 40N, 70W benchmark. Hence, forecast reasoning has not changed much since yesterday night. Arthur is expected to continue its northeast track and speed up under the influence of the cold front depicted above, moving offshore of New England and into the Canadian Maritimes as it makes extratropical transition.

Screen Shot 2014-07-04 at 9.38.44 AM

What This Means for Us

As expected, Arthur will be bringing multiple rounds of rain to the entire Northeast over the course of the day today. You can already see Arthur’s outer rain bands on our regional radar (you’d see it in the standard 124 nautical mile radar, but I’ve inserted an image of 248 nautical mile range radar image to see the storm better). As Arthur accelerates and makes its closest pass to this part of the country, we’ll see repeated bands of rain moving on shore. You can expect periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, interspersed with some dry spells under cloudy skies.

Screen Shot 2014-07-04 at 9.39.27 AM

The Rest of the Weekend

Once Arthur and the cold front clear the Northeast, we will see a return to a spectacular weekend with high pressure building back in. Sunny skies, mild, and dry conditions will prevail across the entire region with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s on both Saturday and Sunday. As the high pressure moves to our southeast, we’ll see a return flow from the backside of the high pressure ushering in another warm, humid airmass for the beginning of next week.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jun 25, 2014

NYC, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

A warm and humid day out there in the Tri-State this afternoon. You can feel it’s potential thunderstorm weather. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion (analysis of weather conditions conducive to severe weather on a medium scale – 10km-500km). Very moist air, warm temperatures, combined with a slowly approaching cold front set the stage this afternoon for possible development of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. This is especially the case over inland areas, as depicted below. In general, expect a line of showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms to pass through the area later this evening into the overnight areas when the cold front finally pushes through.

Screen Shot 2014-06-25 at 2.08.45 PM
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1147.html

Thursday – there could be some lingering showers in the AM, but things will dry out quickly and clouds will slowly give way to sunnier skies. High temperatures will be a bit cooler than today, in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Friday – a splendid end to the work week with mostly sunny skies and comfortable, less humid conditions and temperatures in the low 80s.

Canadian high pressure will move slowly to our east, ushering in some warm air and calm skies
Canadian high pressure will move slowly to our east, ushering in some warm air and calm skies

Saturday and Sunday will both again feature excellent weather as a high pressure system works its way over our region following this cold front. As the high pressure slowly slides to the southeast, it will bring us southerly winds that will usher in another period of warm and humid weather. Saturday will be the better day of the weekend with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and lower humidity. By Sunday, temperatures will begin ramping up into the mid-80s with an increase in humidity. Early next week, we’ll be looking at a continuing warming trend with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s Monday and near 90 Tuesday before our next chance of rain.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 19, 2014

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , ,

We’re going to get some welcome relief to the brief warm spell we’ve had so far this week, as a large area of showers over Pennsylvania will move east slowly during the course of the day today. You can already feel a change in the air, with temperatures generally 10 degrees (or more) cooler this morning than at this time yesterday.

Friday – the cold front responsible for bringing us showers today will move through to our south and usher in a cool, dry air mass from Canada in its wake. High pressure will then build over Quebec and dominate the area through at least Monday. Temperatures will be pleasant near 80 with mostly sunny skies.

Untitled

Saturday and Sunday – the pattern of pleasant, mild and seasonable temperatures will set the stage for the formal beginning of summer (Saturday, June 21st is the day of the summer solstice, the longest day of the year). Temperatures both days will range in the upper 70s to low 80s, with low humidity and sunny skies.

Monday and Tuesday – this stretch of nice weather continues into the beginning of the next work week, with high pressure slowly moving off to the east, but still warm and nice. Temperatures again will be in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies.

Our next chance at rain will come Wednesday with a cold front associated with a two storms systems that will merge (one over the Mississippi Valley, the other moving from Ontario).

Untitled1

NYC Weather Update + World Cup Weather! Jun 12, 2014

NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Two part update today – first to address NYC weather, and then to discuss the outlook for next week down in Brazil during the opening week of the FIFA World Cup.

Friday – the work week closes out with the wettest day so far with a warm front passing through tonight, and then a cold front following shortly thereafter tomorrow. This will translate to mostly cloudy skies, with a round of rain tonight, followed by a period of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, and then ending with another round of heavier rain and thunderstorms Friday night. Temperatures will be much warmer than today after the passage of the warm front with highs in the low 80s.

Screen Shot 2014-06-12 at 2.56.59 PM
NAM model output simulated radar image for Friday morning @ 5AM

Luckily for us, the cold front passes through quickly Friday and leads to a splendid stretch of weather beginning with a sunny, mild and pleasant Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be in the low 80s both days under clear skies. This is due to an area of high pressure building in from the west behind the cold front.

Warm Spell Next Week

This same high pressure area will track to the southeast during the weekend. By mid-week next week, the high pressure center will be offshore of the Southeastern US, and link up with the Bermuda High. As you may know, Bermuda Highs typically cause hot, humid weather in our region, and this will be no exception. Temperatures will steadily increase each day Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, such that by Wednesday, we’ll be looking at highs in the mid-upper 80s. This area of high pressure will also block any precipitation from impacting us until at least next Thursday into Friday when a low pressure system with a trailing cold front is forecast to pass through the Great Lakes.

GFS model output for next Tuesday
GFS model output for next Tuesday

World Cup Weather

The World Cup is upon us!!! With opening kickoff just a few minutes away, I thought it’d be useful to talk about weather down in the host country, Brazil. As you know, it’s currently autumn in the Southern Hemisphere, but you wouldn’t be able to tell based on the forecast high temperatures for most of the Brazilian cities with games going on next week. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s-upper 80s depending on where you are.

The highest temperatures will be in Manaus, which not surprisingly sits in the Amazon basin. That’s also the city where you can expect the highest likelihood of rain and thunderstorms. Most of the coastal Brazilian cities that are hosting games will have pleasant conditions and high temperatures in the low 80s this week. Fair weather should be the story as high pressure will tend to dominate this week.

GFS model output for S. America on Tuesday
GFS model output for S. America on Tuesday

For your reference, here’s a map with dates of games being held in each host city. I’ll be keeping an eye on the weather and posting any relevant updates as they come up.wcmaps-stadiums2

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Governor’s Ball, Jun 6, 2014

NYC, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

A lot of you may be going down to Governor’s Island this weekend to check out the Governor’s Ball this weekend, which promises to have spectacular weather for an outdoor music festival!

Today – winds from the north will diminish today as an area of high pressure builds in over NYC from the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be seasonable near 80 with mostly sunny skies. If you’re on Governor’s Island itself, you might experience slightly cooler temperatures due to breezes off the harbor.

Saturday – day two of a weekend of glorious weather, as temperatures continue to climb with the high pressure sits right over us. Expect clear skies with warm highs in the mid 80s. Excellent weather for a grill out or just any outdoor activity period.

Sunday – yep, you guessed it, yet another day of ridiculously nice weather, with highs in the low-mid 80s, and a mostly sunny sky.

Next chance for rain and thunderstorms comes Monday in advance of a complex frontal system.

NWS Weather Prediction Center's forecast for Sunday
NWS Weather Prediction Center’s forecast for Sunday

NYC Weekend Weather Update – May 30, 2014

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , ,

For the remainder of today, temperatures will be in the low-mid 70s. A cold front is forecast to pass through the region later this evening into the overnight hours. Ahead of the frontal boundary, some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours. Coverage will be sparse and any storms should be short in duration.

Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 11.49.21 AM

Saturday enough instability may linger in the wake of this cold front to allow for the development of PM pop up thunderstorms/showers. Again, coverage will be widely scattered and intensity of these storms would not be too great. Otherwise, partly cloudy with high temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid-upper 70s.

Sunday will be the best day of the weekend with high pressure beginning to build into the area. This high pressure center is forecast to sit to the south of us, allowing a warmer airmass to circulate clockwise around it. This should translate to warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s (especially inland) across the area. Fair weather with mostly sunny to clear skies.

Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 11.50.00 AM

This warm trend should continue into Monday of next week, when highs again will push 80n across the area under mostly sunny skies. Next chance at rain will be Tuesday.