You couldn’t wish for better weather this Labor Day Weekend! A dry cold front will pass through today, and high pressure will build in behind it, remaining in control of our sensible weather throughout the remainder of the long weekend. The result will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low-80s and comfortable humidity, ideal for basically any outdoor plans you have.
Rest of today – the warmest day of this period with high temperatures in the mid-80s and sunny skies prior to the arrival of a cold front. This frontal passage will be moisture starved, so we’re not anticipating any rain with it. There may be some more clouds later on in the day as a result, though. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with mostly clear skies.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday. A dry cold front is anticipated to move through later today and through Saturday. This will clear the way for a weekend of remarkably good weather.
Saturday – with the cold front past us, we’ll see cooler temperatures in the upper-70s to around 80ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with mostly clear skies again.
Sunday – yet another gorgeous day with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with mostly clear skies.
GFS model of surface pressure and 10 meter above ground level winds. High pressure is forecast to remain over our region through the weekend.
Monday (Labor Day) – high temperatures around 80ºF again with sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s under clear skies.
Moisture associated with the remnants of Laura are set to bring soaking rain starting the weekend. A cold front eventually clears things out by Sunday, which will bring a markedly drier air mass into the region. Temperatures during this period will be generally cooler than at most points this week, in the low-80s. Next week, we could see a return to hotter weather towards mid-week.
Rest of today – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Chances for rain and thunderstorms later in the day along a warm front that’s forecast to lift through during the day. Overnight lows in the low-70s with rain chances continuing.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. By this time, a warm front will have lifted through and the remnants of Laura will be contributing moisture to rains over the region.
Saturday – Laura, which wrought serious devastation over the Gulf Coast, will make itself felt on Saturday, contributing tropical moisture to rain that will impact the area. This moisture will contribute to very high precipitable water content > 2″, which could lead to localized flooding. Mostly cloudy with rain possible throughout the day. Stronger storms are possible in the afternoon. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with rain chances diminishing as a cold front sweeps through.
GFS model precipitable water content valid 8AM Saturday. Very moist values of > 2.00″ are possible.
Weather Prediction Center’s analysis of possible rainfall totals Saturday. Parts of the region could see easily see 0.75-1.00″.
Sunday – by the morning, the trailing cold front associated with the primary low bringing this rain should’ve already pushed through. This will lead to a much drier, cooler day, with high temperatures peaking around 80ºF and plenty of sun. Winds may be gusty at times from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s due to good radiational cooling with clear skies and winds calming.
Monday– even cooler than Sunday with high temperatures in the upper-70s, and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
A week of refreshing, mostly dry, and seasonable weather gives way to a warming trend this weekend. There will be chances of isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms both weekend days. By the end of the period, temperatures will be climbing into the upper-80s and low-90s across the region, and the warmer temps look set to carry over into the first half of next week.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. The warm front and weak surface low pictured over the Delmarva is forecast to move north during the day.
Saturday – a weak warm front pushes north during the day. As a result, low clouds should be on the increase. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, coverage is likely to not be widespread. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances continuing.
Sunday – warm and more humid with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Another day where there will be chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Monday– the warm temperatures continue with high temperatures again in the upper-80s, approaching 90ºF under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies valid at 2PM Monday. The deeper the red hues, the more warmer the anomaly. This shows us on the northern side of an 850 mb high, with slightly above normal temperatures at this level as a result. 850 mb temperatures are often a good proxy for surface temperatures.
Tropical Storm Fay will bring heavy rain, strong winds, flash flooding to start the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of NYC as well as coastal New Jersey and Connecticut, including all of Long Island. Conditions should start to improve Saturday as Fay continues tracking north and inland. We may even see some sun by Sunday. Temperatures start in the low-80s with the rain and clouds from Fay, but should be warming up upper-80s later on this weekend.
Rest of today – cooler with high temperatures in the low-80s. Windy and rain, with bouts of heavy, tropical downpours. 2-4″ of rain are possible with this storm. Sustained winds could approach tropical storm force (30-40 mph) near Fay’s core if it tracks over us. Otherwise, gusts up to 50 mph are possible. The main threat from Fay is from the heavy rains that could produce flash flooding. Overnight lows in the low-70s with tropical storm conditions still possible as Fay lifts north.
National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Storm Fay.
Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for Tropical Storm Fay. Note the widespread totals of 2-4″ possible in our region.
Saturday – as Fay lifts north and inland, it will weaken rapidly. Conditions should improve with a spell of dry weather possible before another non-tropical frontal system impacts the area with thunderstorms possible. Temperatures should be warm, in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances diminishing behind the passage of this cold front.
Sunday – we may start off dry with some sun, which could allow temperatures to climb to the low-90s. However, scattered thunderstorms are possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.
Monday– similar day to Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Partly sunny skies to start and isolated thunderstorms possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
A warm and potentially stormy start to the weekend on tap with Storm Prediction Center placing the area under slight risk for severe weather Saturday. Temperatures during this period in the upper-80s. Weather improves on Sunday behind a cold front. Next week, a lingering upper low may bring daily chances for rain in the afternoons.
This afternoon – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s with increasing clouds towards daybreak.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Saturday, showing the region under slight risk for severe weather.
Saturday – a warm front pushes through early in the morning and some showers could accompany this. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-80s. A cold front is forecast to push through later, with a prefrontal trough ahead of it. These will serve as the loci for more organized convective activity. Thunderstorms forming in the warm sector behind the early warm front passage may be able to attain severe limits. The main threat is from damaging winds. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances diminishing early.
Sunday – despite the cold front passage, temperatures stay largely similar to Saturday in the upper-80s due to downsloping winds from the west. With an upper low lingering, isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms may pop up in the late afternoon, mostly sunny otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Monday– mostly sunny though a chance for afternoon pop up showers or thunderstorms persists. High temperatures remain warm in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s. Below, you’ll see GFS forecasts for this upper low continuing to influence our weather going into next week. The tangible impacts for this will be continued chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the week until this upper low finally gets picked back up by primary westerly steering currents and moves offshore.
GFS model 500 mb height and wind. You can see evidence of a persistent upper low that drifts south, then gets cutoff from main steering currents, and remains largely stationary, even retrograding west during next week over the Northeast.
A slow moving low pressure and upper level low will result in the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the weekend with temperatures in the low-80s. Best chances for these diurnally driven thunderstorms would be in the afternoon hours. There’s a good amount of moisture in the air this weekend with steady southerly flow, so these storms could produce heavy rain, though severe weather is not anticipated. Past this weekend, a warmup to the mid-upper-80s (90s in interior) is forecast as upper level ridging and high pressure builds next week.
Saturday – fog early with cooler, marine flow. Temperatures warm into the low-80s with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms particularly north and west of the city. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – Similar pattern to Saturday with partly sunny skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms developing later in the day particularly west of the city. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Monday – this pattern persists with partly sunny skies, highs in the low-80s and chances for isolated PM thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
GFS model 500 mb temperature, height, and wind forecast for 8PM Tuesday
Tuesday– high pressure builds offshore, with upper level ridging and 500 mb temperatures increasing, we should see sunny skies and very warm temperatures nearing 90ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.
We have a muggy, strormy, and warm start to the weekend with temps in the 80s. Tomorrow, a cold front sweeps through in the afternoon. This will bring relief from the humidity and heat. High pressure builds in going into next week with temperatures back to seasonable ranges in the 70s. We should see an extended period of dry, sunny weather as a result.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy overall with high temperatures in the low-80s. Some shortwaves and surface troughs moving through will serve as the focal point for thunderstorm development. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere today to tap, so storms could produce heavy rainfall, and if enough hit the same locations via training/backbuilding there is potential for localized flooding. Overnight lows in the upper-60s as storm chances continue with fog possible late.
GFS model precipitable water at 8PM today, with values as high as 2.00″ around NYC.
Saturday – clouds diminishing during the day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. A cold front moves through in the afternoon, but will not have the benefit of having as much moisture as today to tap into. Still, an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Downsloping winds behind the cold front should help dry and warm things up. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Sunday – high pressure starts to build and skies remain mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Monday– high pressure continues to build and provide us another sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.
Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Monday– rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather
Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.
National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.
April ended with another stormy week with plenty of rain. May starts of grey Friday, followed by a spectacular day Saturday. Rain enters the picture again Sunday. Behind this next storm system, things will cool off again. This will lead temperatures to continue their cool trend throughout most of next week. During this period high temperatures will range at least 5ºF below the upper-60s that are normal for this time of the year.
Rest of today – the slow moving storm that began impacting us yesterday continues to influence weather today. Scattered showers wrapping around the backside of the low responsible for this storm could still occur. Temperatures should generally be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-50s as the storm finally exits.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday
Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this storm, bringing the best day of the frorecast period with high temperatures expected to top out around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Sunday – just like last weekend, the sunny, dry weather barely lasts before the next storm moves in. This will be a weaker, and faster moving storm so rain should be on the lighter side. Currently expecting most of the day Sunday to be dry with clouds building and high temperatures still warm in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Monday– once this low clears our region, winds shift to the north and a cooler air mass works its way in. Skies clear with temperatures falling back the low-60s. Overnight lows only in the upper-40s. This cool trend looks set to continue for the duration of next week. Though after a week with high temperatures in the 50s, the low-60s looks pretty good.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 6-10. Below average temperatures are indicated as very likely for much of the Eastern US
This temperature trend is borne out in the GFS models 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies. This chart is valid for 8AM Tuesday
Two coastal lows bring will rain today and Sunday. Saturday ends up being a nice day in between with some high pressure building briefly. The second coastal storm coming on Sunday drags into Monday bringing rain and cool temperatures. Throughout this period, temperatures will range at least 5ºF below normal. This below normal temperature trend, largely a continuation of this week, looks set to continue well into next week.
Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-50s with cloudy conditions and periods of steady rain off and on for much of the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain winding down and clouds clearing.
Saturday – sunny skies and high pressure should allow temperatures to climb to about 60ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Sunday – unfortunately, the dry weather doesn’t last as a second storm moves in for Sunday, bringing yet more rain and cool, cloudy weather. High temperatures topping out only in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
Monday– high temperatures still suppressed in the low-50s as this second storm lifts to the east. Overnight lows in the low-40s. Going into next week, temperature will stay below normal, anywhere between 5-10ºF. Later in the week, it appears a potent, closed 500 mb low will be the culprit for keeping temperatures down (and bringing yet more rain to us)
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Apr 29-May 3, showing below average temperatures continuing to affect much of the northeastern quadrant of the US
GFS 500 mb temperature, height and winds for 2AM Thursday, Apr 30. A closed 500 mb low is forecast to move over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario – this will be partly responsible for cooler than normal temperatures.
