Category Archives: Weekend

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 16, 2020

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An extended period of cool temperatures continues for the rest of the week into the weekend. During this period, highs will generally 10ºF below average. A weak storm passes through Friday night into Saturday bringing the chance for rain. Temperatures finally warm up to start next week though this may not last.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high pressure building. High temperatures in the low-50s. Cold overnight lows in the mid-30s with a cool air mass in place. If skies remain clear and winds decouple overnight, we could see even colder overnight temperatures.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Friday

Friday – with a cold start to the day, high temperatures will be hindered around 50ºF. Clouds increase as a low pressure center moves towards us. Rain chances increase later in the day and into the overnight. Overnight lows around 40ºF

Saturday – rain ending early, as the storm system slides east of us. High temperatures hampered by this early rain and clouds, reaching into the mid-50s. Overnight lows around 40ºF.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for April 21-25, showing chances for below normal temperatures in the Northeast

Sunday – high temperatures start warming up to around 60ºF. Overnight lows will likewise warm into the upper-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 9, 2020

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We have a stormy start to the forecast period with the Storm Prediction Center putting us under a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon. Behind this storm, windy conditions will prevail Friday with the pressure gradient tightening between an incoming high pressure and the departing low. This pressure gradient eases Saturday as high pressure moves more directly overhead. Decent weather continues Sunday before another storm rolls in Monday. Above normal temperatures for Thursday in the low-60s. Temperatures drop below normal in low-50s this weekend before picking up Monday into the upper-60s.

Rest of today – lighter stratiform rain in the morning hours with a warm front moving through. This will be followed up by a possible round of strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon hours (most likely around 1-2PM). The primary risk for severe weather comes from the potential for damaging wind gusts, with very fast winds aloft potentially mixing down to the surface. High temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows around 40ºF as gusty winds bring in strong cold air advection. See this detailed forecast for more info about today.

Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Thursday, showing us in a slight risk area for severe weather later today.

Friday – despite a high in the low-50s, strong winds around a deepening low will make it feel significantly cooler. Clouds should gradually diminish during the day. Overnight lows cool, in the upper-30s.

Weather Prediction center surface forecast for 8AM Friday. A strong low pressure cetner is indicated tracking northeast out of Maine.

Saturday – winds ease as an area of high pressure moves more directly over us. High temperatures should range in the mid-50s with plenty of sun. Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s.

Sunday – clouds increasing with high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will warm into the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 2, 2020

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A retrograding low will bring increasing clouds, wind and rain to end the week. This low will be blocked from moving east until late Friday. High pressure will move in Saturday and should dry things out, and bring more sun. A weak cold front is forecast to pass through Sunday. Some rain will be possible with this frontal passage. Temperatures during this period should remain at or above normal for this period in the mid-50s.

Rest of today – increasing clouds with a low retrograding west towards the area. High temperatures in the mid-50s. Winds will pick up also as the pressure gradient builds between the retrograding low and high pressure to the west. Overnight lows should be around the mid-40s.

Friday – chances for rain, mostly in the morning hours, with high temperatures in the mid-50s under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances will diminish as this low finally pulls off to the south. Overnight lows again in the mid-40s.

  • Weather Prediction center surface forecast for 2AM Friday
  • GFS model 500 mb height, vorticity and wind forecast valid 10AM Thursday. Note the presence of the closed upper low offshore of the Northeast, with an omega blocking pattern over the eastern Atlantic (two lows, with a ridge in between, literally looks like the Greek letter for omega)

Saturday – as high pressure moves in, we’ll see a better day with partly to perhaps mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s.

Sunday – a weakening cold front may bring a chance for showers, but ahead of this, temperatures will be mild in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will warm into the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 26, 2020

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The active weather pattern we’ve seen so far this week with alternating days of sun and rain continues with two more storms coming for the end of the week into the weekend. This time around, the rainy days will outnumber the sunny ones. We will start off with a beautiful Thursday before a weaker storm impacts the area tomorrow. A more significant system will move through later Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures during this time will range around normal to above normal in the 50s.

Rest of today – high pressure will be in control of the weather today, yielding a sunny day with temperatures steadily rising into the upper-50s. Overnight lows should be around the mid-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Friday

Friday – clouds will build overnight into the day and by the morning hours a weak area of low pressure will be moving through the area. We can expect some light rain with this system in the morning, rather than a full day washout. Clouds will remain through the rest of the day even after the system clears and rain stops. High temperatures around 60°F. Overnight lows will be in the low-40s as a result of radiational cooling as high pressure briefly builds.

Saturday – with high pressure positioned to our north to start, northeasterly flow will keep temperatures cool in the low-50s. A stronger storm system with origins in the lee of the Rockies will be moving towards us throughout the day. A warm front will slowly move up from the south bringing a steady rain ahead of it. Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s as rain continues.

GFS 500 mb height and relative vorticity valid 8PM Sunday. Note the presence of a closed 500 mb low over Michigan and southern Ontario generating lots of positive voriticity around it. This will provide divergence and lift at the upper levels to support the storm hitting us Sunday.

Sunday – With the warm front making its way through and flow turning towards the south/southwest, temperatures should rise to around 60°F. However, rain chances are expected to continue throughout the course of the day before tapering off overnight. Overnight lows will warm into the upper-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 6, 2020

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This weekend starts of with a storm system passing well southeast of NYC Friday into Saturday. The periphery of this low offshore, a weakening secondary low tracking from the Great Lakes, as well as a weak inverted trough pivoting through will still give us a chance for rain later today and overnight into Saturday. Behind this storm, temperatures will cool to seasonable levels in the mid-40s. However, high pressure will build and quickly move southeast. The flow will turn southerly and bring a big warm up to start week in the 60s.

Rest of today – clouds have already worked their way into the are ahead of a secondary low moving east. High temperatures today should peak in the upper-40s. Rain chances increase in the afternoon as bands of precipitation develop and start pivoting around a rapidly strengthening offshore low. The secondary low will transfer energy to this offshore low and eventually be absorbed. A brief period of wet snow could happen overnight, but no accumulation is expected. Overnight lows should be around the mid-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Friday

Saturday – clouds should clear with high pressure starting to build in. Temperatures won’t be that much cooler behind this storm, rebounding into the mid-40s, but it will be cooler than we’ve been used to this week. The pressure gradient between the incoming high pressure and departing offshore storm should allow for some brisk northerly winds. As the high pressure continues moving overhead, winds should calm and allow for a mostly clear overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low-30s as a result of good radiational cooling from these conditions.

Sunday – by this time, the high pressure should continue to track southeast. In response, winds will being shifting to the southwest, bringing a much warmer air mass back to the region. High temperatures will likely respond by shooting back into the upper-50s. Overnight lows will be considerably warmer, in the low-40s. We jump ahead an hour as daylight saving time starts.

  • GFS model 2 meter above ground temperatures, 10 meter above ground winds for 2PM Monday
  • GFS model surface pressure and 10 meter above ground winds for 2PM Monday

Monday – the prolonged period of southerly flow as the high pressure keeps moving off to the southeast with plenty of sun at an increasing angle should result in high temperatures well into the 60s, mid-upper 60s possibly! Overnight lows will continue warming into the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 7, 2020

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We start this weekend with a high wind warning as a strong low pressure center passing overhead. A much colder air mass will be on the heels of this passing storm. A brief calm Saturday spell punctuates an otherwise active pattern with another storm approaching to start next week. High temperatures during this time will generally be at or above normal (~40°F) with a big warmup by Monday.

Rest of today – high temperatures have already peaked in the mid-50s but the remainder of the day will see a continuing fall in temperatures through the 40s and 30s as strong cold air advection kicks in. This is due to a potent low pressure system (972 mb and strengthening) passing overhead. The tight pressure gradient around this low, in addition to a well-mixed layer forming with winds aloft at 50 knots mixing down will yield very strong winds. A high wind warning is in effect this afternoon when sustained winds could easily be in the 30-40 mph range with gusts exceeding 60 mph in places. Winds will abate overnight as the low exits northeast, temperatures will keep falling all the way into the upper-20s with cold air advection driven by winds from the northwest continuing.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 1 PM today. Note the tight packing of isobars around the 972 mb low pressure center moving just north of the area.
  • NAM model’s forecast sounding for 1PM today. Very strong unidirectional wind profile is indicated, with winds just above the surface in excess of 50 knots. A well-mixed layer is evident as well up to about 850 mb where winds look to range between 55-65 knots. This should allow strong gusts and sustained winds to make it to the surface.

Saturday – high pressure builds in briefly, and should yield a mostly sunny day. With overnight lows in the upper-20s, high temperatures will be decidedly colder around 40°F. Overnight lows remain on the cold side around 30°F.

Sunday – clouds increase with high temperatures in low-40s as the next frontal system approaches. Winds will shift to the south. There is a chance for rain/snow mix then rain during the day. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Monday – prolonged southerly flow will help kick temperatures up to the low-50s as the frontal system slows in its approach. This will also bring prolonged chances for rain. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 3, 2020

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The groundhogs were unanimous in their proclamation of an early spring, but do their predictions jive with climate forecasts? Either way, the first week of February will be an active one with multiple storms impacting the area. Temperatures are forecast to start much above normal in the mid-50s, then taper down to being a touch above normal in the low-40s. Most of the precipitation that falls should be in the form of rain, though overnight periods could produce mixed precipitation.

Rest of today – Early clouds should give way to more sunny skies later in the day. High temperatures will be mild, in the mid-50s as a stationary front slowly lifts north as a warm front into the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Tuesday – High temperatures in the low-50s. The warm front mentioned above stalls out, then returns as a cold front. This pattern brings the potential for some light rain showers. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Wednesday – high pressure builds in briefly, and should give us some reprieve from rain, however, north winds will cool things off with highs in the low-40s. Overnight lows drop into the low-30s as a second, stronger storm system takes aim at the area. This one could start off as wintry mix and sleet overnight for NYC.

Thursday – any accumulation of wintry mix should get washed away as this second storm system lingers and produces rain during the course of the day Thursday. Mostly cloudy otherwise as highs climb into the low-40s. Temperatures currently forecast to remain steady for the most part overnight with onshore flow.

Are the Groundhogs Right?
Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlooks for the second half of February and the entire month suggest that the groundhogs might be on to something – at least for the eastern part of the US (especially the southeast), where above normal temperatures are being forecast. That isn’t as much the case for the western US, as you can see below.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Feb 8-12
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Feb 10-16
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for the whole month of February

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 31, 2020

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Rain to start this weekend leads to a dramatic pattern change with anomalous ridging taking place by late in the forecast period. Temperatures throughout the period range from a few degrees above normal in the mid-40s to the mid-50s by Monday. The warmth continues into the middle of next week.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-40s. A relatively weak coastal low will develop and move towards our area overnight. The best chances for rain are in the early overnight hours. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Saturday – rain chances will diminish quite a bit as the core of the low continues exiting to the northeast. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Overnight lows in the the mid-30s. Some snow could mix in overnight as lingering chances for precipitation continue.

Sunday – things will dry out as the low continues to distance itself from us. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

Monday – the synoptic scale pattern shifts as strong ridging at the mid-levels occurs. This will translate to warm high temperatures in the mid-50s on Monday with mostly sunny skies and southerly flow. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 16, 2020

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This weekend coming up will see a dramatic contrast from last weekend’s record-breaking warmth. Temperatures during the next few days will be average to below normal. Overnight lows in the low-20s for this period. A “warm up” will happen as we enter the warm sector of a passing storm Saturday going into Sunday, but reinforcing cold air arrives to start next week.

Rest of today – partly sunny with strong northwesterly winds. Temperatures will drop from around 50ºF into the low in the mid-20s overnight. A trough extending west from a departing area of low pressure that’s bringing the strong winds may touch off some rain.

Friday – a cold, sunny day with high temperatures starting off in the low-20s and only expected to reach 30ºF under the continuing influence of northwesterly winds .

Saturday – a large storm system will move through. Temperatures starting off in the low-20s will warm into the upper-30s with southerly flow ahead of the main cold front associated with this low. Thermal profiles will support snow to start, with a light accumulation possible before temperatures warm enough at the coast to transition to all rain overnight. Overnight lows aren’t expected to move much, dropping into the mid-30s.

  • GFS model 500 mb height anomalies for 7AM Monday
  • GFS model 300 mb heights and winds for 7AM Monday – the orientation of the jets stream mirrors the position of 500 mb height anomalies

Sunday – improving conditions with high temperatures in the upper-30s and partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows in the low-20s as a second and stronger blast of Arctic air flows in behind Saturday’s storm.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 10, 2020

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The weather story for this weekend in NYC will be the near record-breaking warmth we’ll have with temps at or above 60°F Saturday and Sunday. A storm system sweeps through overnight going into Sunday, and should clear by Sunday afternoon. Behind this, temperatures will drop back to the upper-40s, which is still almost 10ºF above normal for this time of the year! Enjoy this rare occurrence of near record warmth that isn’t accompanied by a washout.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-50s. A strong area of high pressure offshore southeast of our area will be steadily pumping warm, moist air into the region. Looking at the chart below, you’ll see southerly winds blowing at large angles across temperature contours that increase going south – this is an ideal set up for persistent warm air advection and will set the stage for the warmth we see this weekend. Overnight lows in the mid-40s. With moisture advecting into the area, we could see areas of fog develop overnight.

GFS 2-meter temperature with contours and 10-meter wind barbs.

Saturday – very mild with temperatures in the low-60s. Mostly cloudy with a southerly breeze and some fog possible. Overnight lows in the mid-50s. Rain chances increase particularly late overnight going into Sunday morning.

Sunday – elevated convection could bring a rumble of thunder Sunday morning, with rain chances peaking in the early morning hours. High temperatures should remain quite mild, in the mid-60s (and possibly higher with downsloping westerly winds for a period with clearing skies, following the passage of a prefrontal trough and before a cold front closes in). Overnight lows dropping into the low-40s – which is actually still above normal for what a daytime high temperature should be this time of year.

NAM high resolution model output of 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation valid for 5AM Sunday

Monday – high temperatures similar to Friday near 50ºF, partly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-30s.