High pressure and fair weather will get punctuated with the passage of a cold front scheduled to push through overnight into Sunday. This front could touch off a few thunderstorms. Temperatures during this time will be slightly above average in the upper-70s. A cooler airmass should finally move in Monday with more easterly onshore flow.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
Saturday – warmer, with high temperatures around 80°F and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s. Scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight as a cold front pushes through
Sunday – sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Despite the cold front, we should see some warmth from downsloping northerly winds and subsidence in the wake of the frontal boundary causing compressional warming. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
NAM model output for 2PM Monday, mean sea level pressure and 10 m above ground level winds. Note the easterly flow in NYC imparted by the high pressure to our east-northeast
Monday – another sunny day with cooler high temperatures in the low-70s, overnight lows in the low-60s.
The story of the weekend will be a continued stretch of fair weather with high pressure remaining in control. The positioning and movement of the high pressure center will result in a gradual warming pattern as winds turn to the south with high temperatures returning to summer-like levels in the low-mid 80s by the end of the weekend. A cold front scheduled to move through beginning next week will bring cooler weather back but warmer temperatures could make another return later next week, despite the autumnal equinox taking place Monday and fall formally starting.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures around 80°F. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
Saturday – warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Sunday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Monday – another sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-80s, overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Climate Prediction Center short-range outlook for temperatures the second half of next week.
Easterly onshore winds will keep things cool to start the weekend. Strong high pressure slowly gives way to a frontal system late tomorrow, bringing a chance for rain. Behind this system, high pressure should build in again and persist, giving us some nice weather Sunday into next week.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with strong high pressure north of the area. Cool with highs in the low-70s under the influence of easterly onshore winds. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday
Saturday – clouds build ahead of an advancing warm front and the day should end up being mostly cloudy. High temperatures a bit warmer in the mid-70s with winds shifting to the south ahead of the warm front. Rain chances increase towards the evening and overnight hours, with lows in the upper-60s.
Sunday – a trailing cold front will pass through and conditions should improve with rain ending early and gradual clearing. Highs in the low-80s, with some assist from downsloping winds from the west and northwest. Overnight lows in the nid-60s.
GFS model output for 2 meter above ground level temperature and 10 meter above ground winds at 2PM Sunday
Monday – high temperatures in the low-80s with mostly sunny skies as high pressure continues to build. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Hurricane Dorian’s center passes well southeast of the city to start the weekend. Because of its large and expanding size, it will still influence our weather. Once Dorian passes, we’ll see improving conditions though cooler temperatures will be the rule with Canadian high pressure taking over.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with isolated showers, more likely during the late afternoon and evening hours. It’s difficult to say even now whether the outermost rain bands from Dorian actually manage to hit the city, and even if they do, it’s also unclear how intense they will be. High temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s with cool, northeasterly onshore flow due to the cyclonic circulation around Dorian. For more info, see this detailed forecast.
GOES satellite imagery of Hurricane Dorian
Saturday – much improved conditions as drier air works in behind Dorian. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Sunday – a touch cooler though still mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s as winds turn more to the north and Canadian high pressure builds. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Monday – high temperatures continue a 5-6°F below average trend, with highs forecast to be in the low-70s and mostly sunny skies. It will definitely feel like fall. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Labor Day weekend is shaping up to be a good one overall in terms of sensible weather. A dry cold front passage today sets the stage for high pressure to take control over the remainder of the weekend. The only wrinkle is a warm front forecast to pass Monday that could bring some rain. Looking ahead into next week, a warm up should precede another cold front mid-week. The big weather story this weekend will be much further south of us, as Hurricane Dorian takes aim at Florida as a dangerous Category 4 storm.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Saturday – high pressure starts to build from the west, which will result in a cooler weather with northerly winds. High temperatures topping out in the low-80s with lots of sun and overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Sunday – high pressure will progress east, giving us another pleasant day with lots of sun and comfortable temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows warm up in the upper-60s with a warm front approaching from the southwest.
Monday (Labor Day) – chance for rain during the day as a warm front, then a weakening cold front approach. High temperatures in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows around 70ºF.
Hurricane Dorian Heading Towards Florida
Over the course of the last few days, Hurricane Dorian made a pass over the Northern Lesser Antilles, hitting the Virgin Islands, and Martinique, but sparing Puerto Rico. This was a blessing for an island still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Maria. However, because Dorian avoided the disruptive influence of high terrain in Puerto Rico, it entered the open waters of the Western Atlantic north of the island ready for continued intensification. Unfortunately, various forecast models have been consistently depicting Dorian making landfall somewhere in Florida early next week as a dangerous Category 4 hurricane packing max sustained winds of 140 mph.
Latest GOES visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Dorian
Overnight going into today, Dorian’s been steadily strengthening and is now showing a markedly more symmetrical structure than before, along with an eye developing in visible satellite imagery. This suggests that the southerly shear and dry air that was afflicting the storm yesterday has abated somewhat. At this point, there is nothing really stopping Dorian from continuing to strengthen to a major hurricane.
National Hurricane Center official forecast for Dorian as of 11AM Friday
Forecasters continue to have high confidence that Dorian will make a turn towards a more westerly direction as high pressure builds over Bermuda and keeps building to the west. This will block Dorian from taking a northerly route away from Florida. Worryingly, forecast models have trended towards a slower and more southerly track overnight, then a turn north after landfall. On this current track, a large part of Florida would be affected by the storm for a considerable amount of time, increasing the risk of damaging storm surge and inland flooding from prolonged heavy rain.
After a week of hot, humid weather and several bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms, we will finally get a break from both the heat and the rain just in time to enjoy the weekend. Behind a cold front that’s slowly pushing south, high pressure will build in and usher in a Canadian polar airmass that will bring a noticeable change to high temperatures – 10ºF cooler in most cases. Rain chances return late in the weekend period.
Rest of today – showers associated with a wave of low pressure moving along the cold front that passed last night should end by noon. Mostly cloudy with gradual clearing. High temperatures in the upper-70s and overnight lows in the mid-60s.
NAM (North American Model) forecast for 2 meter above ground level temperature Saturday at 2PM
Saturday – mostly sunny, high temperatures in the upper-70s, noticeably drier feel with dew points much lower than the past few days with Canadian high pressure taking over. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Sunday – below average temperatures continue with high temperatures in the mid-70s. By this time, the high pressure center will have shifted to the northeast and will thus enable cooler, more moist onshore flow to influence the weather. We should see more clouds and could even see some scattered rain showers. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Monday – high temperatures in the upper-70s with partly sunny or mostly cloudy skies. An area of low pressure (which could become a tropical depression this weekend) off of Florida will track along the East Coast and should at the very least bring cloudier weather. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
A stationary front stalled out southeast of the city over the Mid-Atlantic will be the primary agent responsible for an extended period of humid, cloudy, and unstable weather over the weekend. As was the case last weekend, temperatures will be on an upward trend from the low-80s into the low-90s by the start of next week.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms particularly closer to higher terrain north and west of the city. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday
Saturday – more clouds than sun with the stationary front just south of the area. Continued onshore easterly flow behind north of this stationary front will keep things cooler and humid. High temperatures in the low-80s. Chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop again in the afternoon hours with an unstable airmass (due to the high moisture content caused by the onshore flow) as heating increases. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Sunday – temperatures begin to warm up into the upper-80s as winds shift towards the south. The stationary front attempts to move north as a warm front but high pressure is forecast to develop west of us and block this northwards advance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.
GFS model 2 meter above ground level temperature, 10 meter above ground level wind forecast for 2PM Monday
Monday – with winds shifting to towards the southwest, much warmer air will advect into the region. High temperatures expected to top out in the low-90s with overnight lows in the upper-70s. Mostly sunny skies forecast with the high pressure building.
Unsettled weather takes hold during the mid-week period as a couple prefrontal disturbances affect the area. The focus for heavier rain will be later Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Behind this cold front, conditions should improve and result in a pleasant, dry weekend.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a shortwave trough lingers around the area. Temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM TuesdayStorm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Tuesday
Tuesday – shaping up to be an eventful day in regards to weather. Temperatures should rise into the low-80s with overnight lows in the low-70s. During the day, a mesoscale convective system (organized large cluster of thunderstorms) will be approaching the area from the Ohio Valley. Forecast is uncertain in terms of where the frontal boundaries in the vicinity of this MCS eventually set up. Current thinking is that we end up south of a warm front earlier in the day that will serve as the initial focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. This activity should continue and increase in intensity as the frontal boundary starts shifting south and encounters warm, moist and unstable air. There is potential for all severe hazards including hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.
Wednesday – mostly cloudy with shower chances diminishing later in the day . High temperatures in the low-80s and lows in the upper-60s.
Thursday – still a possibility for lingering showers but overall a better day with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the low-80s with overnight lows in the upper-60s.
A couple stormy nights in the city the last couple days will give way to a superb weekend of mostly sunny skies and warm, but comfortable temperatures. High pressure will remain in control over the region’s weather going into next week. The next chance for significant precipitation won’t enter the picture until mid-week next week.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures ranging 84-87°F. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm later this afternoon with a weak disturbance pivoting through at the upper-levels. Forecasters cite the lack of any significant convective inhibition so storms could pretty easily get going, however, moisture content isn’t all that great. Overnight lows should be mild in upper-60s.
HRRR model simulated radar for 4:45PM today
Saturday – with a cold front passing today, we’ll have cooler temperatures tomorrow, high temperatures reaching only into the low-80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows cooling into the mid-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
Sunday – just another beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows starting to warm back up into the upper-60s.
Monday – temperatures will warm back up as the high pressure center shifts east, and we get the warmer southerly, and westerly return flow. We should see high temperatures in upper-80s and overnight lows in the low-70s.
Unsettled weather takes hold during the mid-week period as a couple prefrontal disturbances affect the area. The focus for heavier rain will be later Wednesday as a cold front approaches. Behind this cold front, conditions should improve and result in a pleasant, dry weekend.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a shortwave trough lingers around the area. Temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday
Wednesday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Heavy rain possible especially later in the day with a cold front approaching. With a moist air mass in place, some thunderstorms that pop up could produce heavy downpours and localized flooding. Rain could continue overnight in more isolated form. Lows in the low-70s.
Thursday – brief subsidence behind the cold front that passes through Thursday should result in calmer weather and warmer temperatures with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Before that happens though, rain and thunderstorms can still pop up. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Climate Prediction Center 6-10 temperature outlook valid Aug 11 – Aug 15 (this Sunday into next week)
Friday – cooler, sunny, with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows cooling into the upper-60s as Canadian high pressure begins to build.
