Category Archives: Weekend

NYC Weekend Weather – May 3, 2019

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The unsettled weather pattern this week continues into the weekend. Rain is possible tonight into Saturday, then again overnight Saturday into most of the day Sunday. Entering next week, it appears we get a break from rainy weather, but looking ahead, another period of prolonged chances for rain could occur mid-week next week. Temperatures will alternate between below normal and around average, depending on whether there is rain in the forecast.

Rest of today – cloudy, with temperatures in the upper-50s. A warm front lingers to our south slowly moving north. Eventually, a cold front will push through overnight into Saturday. This could bring a brief period of rain, and maybe a thunderstorm. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – rain chances should end by late morning. High temperatures should be able to reach around 70°F despite cloudy skies. Another storm system will move in overnight going into Sunday. Rain chances will ramp up steadily after midnight. Moderate to heavy rain is possible. Temperatures overnight in the mid-50s.

North American Model (NAM) high resolution simulated radar for 11AM Sunday

Sunday – washout of a day as low pressure moves though. Plenty of moisture available for this system and that could lead to some heavier precipitation. Poor conditions for the Five Borough Bike Tour, with highs around 60°F, as a cool onshore easterly wind accompanies this storm. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Monday – nice rebound day with high temperatures reaching to around 70°F. Finally should see some sun with high pressure briefly building in the wake of Sunday’s storm and before the next frontal boundary to impact the area. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 19, 2019

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A slow-moving storm system will impact the area with potentially heavy rain that could trigger flash flooding overnight into the first part of Saturday. Precipitation chances die down significantly with the passage of this round of rain as a dry slot works into the area. However, lingering chances for showers still exist as this storm makes a slow exit to the east. Temperatures during this period are forecast to be at or above normal.

Rest of today – cloudy, but still warm with temperatures rising to about 70°F. We will be in the warm sector with the influence of southerly winds during the day. Rain chances increasing during the evening hours. Steady rain is forecast late into the overnight hours with temperatures. Some of the rain could be heavy. Thunderstorms are also possible, and these would increase the risk of flash flooding. Overnight lows around 60°F.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – the north-south orientation of the cold front that will provide lift for these storms overnight will align well with the prevailing southerly flow through most of the atmosphere. The slow eastward progression of this front will allow storm cells to train leading to more flooding potential as rain continues Saturday morning. The cold front associated with this slow-moving low should push through by the afternoon. A dry slot should cut off any precipitation for a while during this time frame. High temperatures should be in the low-60s. Overnight lows should fall into the low-50s behind the cold front.

GFS model output of 850 mb winds and relative humidity for 2PM Saturday, notice the pronounced area of browns, indicating very dry air. This is what is referred to as a “dry slot“, which can often follow on the heels of cold fronts associated with mature mid-latitude cyclones.

Sunday – the upper low associated with this storm system is expected to cutoff (become detached from primary westerly steering currents), resulting in a system that will meander and take a long while to exit the region. As such, Sunday is expected to remain cloudy, with a chance for some showers. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the low-60s. Overnight lows will again be around the low-50s.

Monday – temperatures warming up into the upper-60s, but yes, that cutoff low still lingers! Chance for showers continues in the morning. Clouds finally decreasing later and overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 12, 2019

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Two distinct storms will affect weather in the area this weekend going into next week. The first is the remnant of the once mighty “bomb” cyclone that brought an abrupt return of winter conditions to the northern Plains states and Upper Midwest. The second will be a storm developing over Texas that could be a severe weather threat down South. Neither should result in a washout as the bulk of precipitation associated with these storms is timed to fall later in the day or overnight. Temperatures will be largely above normal during this period.

Rest of today – cloudy with chance of drizzle early. High temperatures around 60°F. Overnight lows in the mid-50s. Winds are forecast to turn to the south ahead of an anticipated cold front and in the wake of a warm front passing. Rain should accompany this frontal passage overnight.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Saturday

Saturday – warm day in store with highs reaching into the low-70s despite mostly cloudy skies as the cold front passing overnight is forecast to stall and become stationary during the day. Overnight lows in the mid-50s again.

Sunday – shower chances increase as the next storm approaches. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the low-60s due to clouds and rain. A second, more vigorous cold front is forecast to pass overnight into Monday. Rain, heavy at times, possibly with thunderstorms as overnight lows fall into the mid-50s.

GFS model output for 8PM Sunday

Monday – rain associated with this second storm should clear out around lunchtime. Cloudy day forecast now, but could see more breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures in the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 5, 2019

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A cool start to the weekend should give way to a nice couple of days before another storm moves in to start next week. During this period, high temperatures will start well below normal, then rise above average before finally settling around average. Looking ahead, another storm system appears to impact the area late next week, bringing a colder weekend next week in its wake.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy with high temperatures only in the mid-40s. Increasing rain chances towards the evening and overnight hours. Rain should taper off overnight then we should see overnight lows stabilize in the low-40s as warm advection takes hold. 

Saturday – clouds diminishing as the low responsible for the rain moves over the Atlantic to our south. High temperatures in the mid-60s, maybe a touch warmer if we see clouds break earlier than forecast. Overnight lows milder in the upper-40s.

Weather Prediction surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – high pressure stays in control and gives us a pleasant, mild day with high temperatures in the low-60s. The high pressure and nice weather doesn’t stick around long though, with another storm system approaching during the overnight hours going into Monday. Overnight lows should hold around 50ºF as rain starts to fall.

Monday – despite clouds and rain sticking around, temperatures will surge to about 70°F with a warm front forecast to pass through.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 29, 2018

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We will have a warm though not too sunny start to the weekend. A solid chance for rain hits Sunday with the passage of a cold front. After that, temperatures will drop to below normal levels again. Looking ahead into next week, there should be a dry start to the week but a coastal storm may impact the area mid-week. There’s some outside chances for snow with this storm.

Rest of today – cloudy, with some chance of light rain though most rain should remain over interior. With southwesterly flow, despite clouds we should still reach into the upper-50s to 60°F. A cold front approaching from the west is forecast to stall out and acquire semi-stationary characteristics. Thanks to the continued influence of high pressure off to our east, we should stay mostly dry today. Overnight lows should be warm, near 50ºF.

Saturday – the warmth continues, with high temperatures forecast to reach well into the upper-60s though clouds will still linger around with the stationary front to our west. Overnight lows will be similar to tonight around 50ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – the stalled frontal boundary finally picks up forward momentum and pushes through the area as a cold front. Ahead of it, temperatures will still be mild in the mid-50s. A line of showers is expected with this front during the day. Overnight lows behind this cold front will be considerably colder, in the low-30s.

Monday – dry, sunny weather, but with a chilly start to the day, temperatures are expected to only be in the upper-40s to near 50ºF, slightly below normal. Overnight lows are expected in the mid-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 22, 2019

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A long duration Nor’easter slowly moves its way eastwards. Conditions improve during the second half of the weekend. A brief warmup to above average temperatures takes place. This doesn’t last, with another cold front passing through to start next week. Tomorrow, keep an eye out on the skies for a possible glimpse at the aurora borealis, typically not visible at these latitudes.

Rest of today – chance for rain shower diminishing as the center of a slow moving Nor’easter continues to progress northeast. High temperatures reaching around 50ºF. Winds will increase on the backside of this departing low overnight. Winds will shift towards the northwest as well, bringing in colder air and overnight lows in the mid-30s.

GOES East satellite loop of the storm system affecting the Northeast
Ocean Prediction Center surface analysis for the Atlantic Basin. A strong blocking high is inhibiting the forward progress of the Nor’easter impacting our area. This is leading to a long duration coastal flooding and wind event.

Saturday – decreasing clouds as the low above continues progressing northeast slowly. Winds will increase as this low continues to deepen and the pressure gradient builds between it and and area of high pressure further west. Steady winds in the 20-25 mph range with gusts as high as 40 mph are forecast. High temperatures will be a bit below normal as a result in the upper-40s. Overnight lows will be cold, in the mid-30s with clear skies.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday, still showing a tight pressure gradient between a high over the Ohio Valley and the departing Nor’easter

Sunday – temperatures rebound into the mid-50s as an area of high pressure builds and slides off to our southeast, and winds turn towards the southwest bringing in warmer air. Sunny skies – this will be the best day of the weekend.

Monday – another cold front approaches from the west and brings a possibility for rain. Temperatures ahead of this front should reach into the low-50s. Behind this, we’ll get another shot of cold air, with temperatures dropping overnight into the low-30s.

Northern Lights Possibly Visible from NYC

On Tuesday, The Space Weather Prediction Center (it exists!) detected a large Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with a potent solar flare. As a result, they have issued a moderate geomagnetic storm watch for Saturday, March 23. Of note, the belt where the charged particles from this CME would impact the Earth’s upper atmosphere and result in an aurora quite a bit further south than where the northern lights are typically visible. In fact, they may even be visible from NYC, although it may be hard to see them due to light pollution.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 15, 2019

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This weekend will see a warm start but then a cool down into the below normal range going into next week. A rumble of thunder and showers will precede this cool down. Weather looks pleasant for St. Patrick’s Day festivities and the NYC Half Marathon this weekend. 

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun after a warm front passes over shortly and we sit in the warm sector of the same storm that tore through the central US earlier this week. As the trailing cold front pulls through this evening, it could provide enough lift for some additional showers and possibly a couple thunderstorms. High temperatures will be above average in the low-60s, mid-60s if some sun breaks through while we’re in the warm sector. Overnight lows behind the cold front should be in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Friday

Saturday – bright, sunny day with high pressure building behind the cold front. Temperatures cooler, around 50°F. Overnight lows much cooler in the low-30s.

Sunday – cold start to the NYC Half Marathon in the low-30s but high temperatures will end up in the mid-40s with lots of sun. Overnight lows again around the freezing mark

Monday – increasing clouds with a possibility for some precipitation but chances are too low now to call. Highs in the mid-40s and overnight lows back down in the low-30s again.  

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 8, 2019

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As we spring forward this Sunday, our weather pattern finally takes a step forwards towards spring as well. Rain will accompany this warmup, then we start next week with temperatures close to average for this time of year. 

Rest of today – Increasing clouds as an area of low pressure moves offshore well to our south. High temperatures in the upper-30s. A 500 mb (upper level) shortwave trough passing through overnight could provide enough lift for some scattered flurries. Lows dipping to around freezing. 

Saturday – High temperatures in the mid-40s with lots of sun as high pressure temporarily exerts its influence. Overnight lows in the mid-30s. Rain starts overnight going into Sunday as a storm system draws near. 

Weather Prediction surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – rain during the morning with improving conditions later. Overcast to start with cloud cover decreasing as the storm departs to the east. High temperatures around 50°F. Overnight lows in around 40°F

Monday – sunny and seasonable with highs in the upper-40s. Overnight lows cooler than Sunday in the mid-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 1, 2019

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Although the calendar has flipped to March and we’re less than 3 weeks from the official start of spring, the weather has taken a decidedly winter-like turn as of late. This pattern will continue over the weekend and into next week. Initially, we’ll contend with 2 coastal storms that will bring chances for snow, and then enter next week with temperatures well below normal for this time of year. Sadly, this colder than normal pattern looks locked in for the next week or more

Rest of today – overcast conditions with temperatures hovering in the mid-30s. Precipitation will move back into the area by later this evening. Thermal profiles overnight point to a mix of snow/sleet at the coast with lows just around freezing. The local forecast office calls for an accumulation of 1-2″ of this wintry mess.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – the wintry precipitation continues the first half of the day as the first of two coastal storms continues to impact the region. High temperatures should warm up to around 40ºF with mostly cloudy skies, and precipitation should die off later in the day. Overnight lows should be around freezing.

Sunday – starts off as a decent enough day, but a second storm will be brewing and moving offshore, impacting the area overnight into Monday. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the low-40s with partly sunny skies. At this point, the primary precipitation modes at the coast appears to be a rain/snow mix. Thermal profiles don’t appear cold enough to support all snow with overnight lows expected to be above freezing around 35ºF.

Global Forecast System 1000 mb – 500 mb height, pressure, thickness foreast for 6AM Monday

Monday – precipitation tapering off early in the morning as this storm is a fast-mover. Temperatures topping out in the upper-30s with mostly cloudy skies.

Colder than Normal Temperatures Ahead

Climate Prediction Center has a 6-10 day temperature outlook suggesting a colder than normal pattern for much of the country, including our area. During this time, the polar jet stream is expected to dip further south allowing colder air to penetrate into the Continental US.

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 15, 2019

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A weak cold front passes through to start the weekend. a decent weekend is in store with a chance for snow showers on Sunday night. Temperatures will be about average for this time of year through Presidents Day. We have a chance for more significant winter storm mid-week next week although details are fuzzy. At this time, thermal profiles at the coast suggest a mixed event like this past week with snow transitioning to sleet, freezing rain and plain rain. This event looks longer in duration due to a slow moving high east of the incoming storm. I will be on vacation next week and won’t be posting until the following week.

Rest of today – overcast with temperatures in the low-50s. Slight chance for rain with a weak cold front passing later in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Weather Prediction surface forecast for 7PM Friday

Saturday – mostly sunny with highs in the low-40s. Overnight lows around 30°F.

Sunday – mostly sunny during the day with highs around 40°F. Overnight lows in the low-30s will support some light snow associated with a broad area of low pressure. Not anticipating much accumulation beyond a coating.

Monday (President’s Day) – imoroving conditions. Partly sunny with highs in the low-40s and overnight lows dropping into the low-20s.