Today marks the official start of astronomical autumn, even though it will feel anything but fall-like today. Temperatures cool off considerably this weekend, which will lead us into a period of average to below average temperatures for the next week or so.
Rest of today – warm with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and sunny skies.
Friday – warmer still with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and mostly sunny skies. Small chance for showers overnight as a cold front encroaches from the west.
Saturday – with the aforementioned cold front swinging through, we will get a noticeable change in airmasses from a more humid, tropical influence we’ve felt the last few days, to a drier, cooler, continental airmass from Canada. The resulting swing in temperatures will be dramatic, with high temperatures on Saturday ranging 10ºF lower than Friday in the mid-70s.
Sunday – one of many sunny, fall-like days coming with temperatures in the low-mid 70s.
Monday – almost a clone of Sunday, sunny with highs in the low-70s.
Yesterday was the Mid-Autumn Festival, a traditional harvest festival celebrated by many cultures in East Asia. It certainly felt more fall-like yesterday with below average temperatures after we spent one day near 90ºF on Wednesday. The fall weather continues this weekend, with a chance for some much needed rain Sunday.
Rest of today – crisp and cool with high temperatures below normal in the low-mid 70s.
Saturday – a bit warmer, with temperatures a couple degrees above normal under sunny skies, in the upper-70s.
Sunday – ahead of an advancing cold front, we could see showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain, particularly in the afternoon. high temperatures will warm up a little ahead of this front, into the low-80s under mostly cloudy skies.
Monday – since the frontal boundary won’t pass through until late in the day, there’s a lingering chance for showers with high temperatures hovering around 80ºF.
After a steamy end of the week last week, we get a refreshing change to fall-like weather for most of this week. The only exception will be Wednesday, when there looks to be a return to hotter temperatures.
Rest of today – high pressure is in control for today, which should yield mostly sunny conditions with high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s.
Tuesday – high pressure moves a bit further to our east, allowing for warmer air to flow in from the south. This will result in temperatures warming up to around 80ºF with sunny skies.
Wednesday – as the high pressure center above continues to move east, return flow form the south and southwest will continue to warm temperatures up and increase the humidity. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s.
Thursday – a weak cold front will pass through overnight Wednesday into Thursday. In the wake of this frontal boundary, a new area of high pressure will build over the Great Lakes. This will result in much cooler temperatures, in the mid-70s with a northerly wind. Thursday night, which is the Mid-Autumn Festival, should see spotless skies for moon viewing.
This past week, weather headlines were dominated by the uncertain course of how Post-tropical Cyclone Hermine would unfold. Now that Hermine has dissipated and is well behind us, we look ahead to the end of the week which will start off warm, but cool off somewhat.
Rest of today – it’s sunny now, but clouds are moving in from the north and west, and will likely result in partly sunny skies later on. High temperatures will range into the upper-80s and around 90ºF in some parts.
Friday – with an area of high pressure to our southwest, warm, humid air from south will flow into the region allowing temperatures to rise into the low-90s. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Saturday – a frontal boundary will be lingering in our vicinity during the day. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout. High temperatures will be a bit cooler, in the mid-upper 80s.
Sunday – the frontal boundary pushes through as a cold front and brings in some relief from heat and humidity. Skies will clear and allow temperatures to rise to the mid-80s.
Drought Persists, Some Relief Ahead?
Parts of our state are still dealing with an extreme drought, though in our region, we’re “lucky” enough to only have a moderate to severe drought in parts of Long Island. The monthly outlook does call for some drought relief for Long Island, though.
Although tropical storm warnings are still up for the five boroughs, coastal Connecticut, Long Island, and New Jersey, it appears at this time that the threat from Hermine is diminishing. The center of Hermine is now located well out into the Atlantic Ocean, and even if it does make its eventual turn to the north and northwest, it will be far enough east of us that most impacts should be on the moderate side.
Rest of today – over the last few days, Hermine has continuously trended east of the official National Hurricane Center forecast track, and has still not made a turn to the north or northwest. It is still forecast to make that turn today, bringing it closer to shore, and increasing clouds in the area. Winds should pick up as well, with high temperatures around 80ºF.
Post-tropical cyclone Hermine this afternoon
Labor Day (Monday) – assuming that Hermine does make its projected turn towards the coast, Monday would entail a chance for rain, as well as strong winds, possibly approaching tropical storm force. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the upper-70s in this scenario. Could be a tough day for the Caribbean Day Parade.
Personally, I do not believe Hermine will produce tropical storm conditions (sustained wind greater than 39mph, less than 74mph). during this time, the confidence in this track forecast has been low, and any turn towards the coast has yet to verify. That said, nothing about this complex storm would be surprising, and a shift in storm track 50-60 miles west could dramatically increase the likelihood of the city receiving tropical storm conditions. Primary impacts will still be moderate to major coastal flooding with multiple tide cycles of storm surge and large waves leading to serious beach erosion in some places.
Based on latest track forecasts and current position of Hermine, NYC rests in a zone of 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, with the probability increasing sharply further east.
Tuesday – could end up being a pretty decent day if Hermine is further off to the east at this point. If that happens, we’ll probably see decreasing clouds and improving conditions with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. If Hermine sticks around, then we could see another day of wind and rain.
I wrote that I would not be posting any updates while on vacation unless there were to be a special event that warranted it. Well, the likely approach of the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine into the offshore waters in our region certainly warrants this special update. As of now, it appears that Labor Day itself will be the only day when we could see significant impacts from this storm, but this could change. I will likely have another update Sunday.
Rest of today – sunny, and pleasant with a high in the low-80s. This will be by far the best day of the long weekend.
Saturday – increasing clouds, high temperature around 80ºF.
Sunday – mostly cloudy, with chances for rain increasing in the afternoon. Cool, with highs only in the mid-upper 70s.
Labor Day (Monday) – tropical storm conditions possible, strong and gusty winds, and possible periods of heavy rain, especially in coastal areas. Dangerous rip currents at the beaches, as well as moderate to major coastal flooding. Mostly cloudy otherwise with high temperatures in the upper-70s.
Tropical Storm Hermine this morning
Tuesday – with the remnants of Hermine currently forecast to linger off of the coast of the Northeast, we could see another day of possible tropical storm conditions. Warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s.
Tropical Storm Hermine’s Forecast
Since the inception of Hermine as a tropical wave off the coast of West Africa, forecasters have had difficulty in accurately capturing the track and intensity of this storm. Its approach towards our region is no different. The forecast is complicated by the fact that Hermine will be completing a process of extratropical transition. A complex set of interactions between it and a frontal boundary adds a high degree of uncertainty towards the late period of this forecast.
Forecast Track
As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center’s official 5 day forecast called for Hermine to continue tracking rapidly northeast just inland of the Southeast coast as it initially interacts with a frontal boundary in its vicinity. During this period, it is expected to weaken, but by Saturday evening, it is expected to re-emerge over open water off the North Carolina Coast. At this point, Hermine is expected to have completed extratropical transition. It will begin another interaction with a baroclinic frontal zone, which is expected to significantly slow its forward progress down. This slowing will likely also lead to the storm erratically meandering off the Northeast coast, possibly doing a loop.
Some major forecast model’s current output for HermineGFS ensemble models (spaghetti models), white denotes the consensus track
Intensity Forecast
During the period that the storm is over land, it will weaken continuously. However, by Saturday evening, when it is expected to re-emerge over open water, and complete extratropical transition, it will gain in strength. The extratropical transition will impart energy from baroclinic forces (interactions between airmasses of differing pressures), and the storm is expected to re-intensify into a strong extratropical storm with sustained winds of 60-65mph.
Impacts
The intensity and location of these impacts will depend greatly on the eventual track for this storm.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for the entire New Jersey coast. Heavy rain in coastal areas. Strong sustained winds, winds gusting in excess of 50mph in some coastal areas. Beach erosion along with coastal flooding, possibly for an extended period of time. High surf and dangerous rip currents.
We ended this past week of refreshing, more seasonably warm weather with a hot and humid day today. This weekend, temperatures will cool off again into about normal ranges. No significant precipitation chances are forecast for the next few days. I will be on vacation next week, so no updates for a little while unless urgent comes up.
Rest of today – comfortable with highs dropping through the 80s into the mid-70s overnight.
Saturday – high pressure takes over and delivers a sunny day with temperatures in the upper-80s.
Sunday – a tad cooler with high temperatures in the mid-80s and sunny.
Monday – the only day with a chance for rain, otherwise mostly sunny with a high in the mid-upper 80s.
Tuesday – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-upper 80s.
Drought Worsens Upstate, Some Improvement Elsewhere
Despite getting some decent rains over the last few weeks, New York State remains gripped by drought, with a severe drought no impacting upstate regions along the Erie Canal corridor.
The weather headline this week will be spotless summer weather, with no rain in the forecast for the next week or so. Temperatures will start off on the refreshing side in the low-80s and gradually warm up, but not into excessive warmth. Also with relatively low humidity, it will feel quite comfortable.
Rest of today – breezy with northwest winds in the 20-25mph range. This northwest flow is typical after the passage of a cold front, which occurred yesterday. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs only expected to be around 80ºF and mostly sunny skies.
Tuesday – much less windy, with sunny skies and a high around 80ºF. The main driver for our weather this week will be a strong high pressure center, which will be parked pretty much right over us. This will prevent any warm, humid air from the south from entering into the area – the opposite effect of a Bermuda high.
Wednesday – warmer, with high temperatures around 85ºF and sunny skies.
Thursday – essentially the same as Wednesday, high around 85ºF and sunny.
The end of this week and this weekend will see a gradual transition away from the long-lasting heat and humidity that has gripped the area over the last couple of weeks. There will be some chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with more significant chances for rain Sunday night and going into Monday.
Rest of today – clouds are expected to clear somewhat, allowing high temperatures to reach into the mid-80s. Some slight chance for showers and thunderstorms exists this afternoon.
Friday – mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, and again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday – pretty much the same as Friday, high temperatures in the upper-80s, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday – starts out decently enough, but clouds will increase, temperatures will probably end up in the mid-80s. A complex set up of multiple frontal boundaries will be moving in/setting up over the area later Sunday into the overnight hours. The exact timing of the arrival of more significant rains is still not very certain.
Monday – depending on the timing of the frontal boundaries above, we could see a mostly dry day Monday, with temperatures in the normal range, right around 85ºF.
The scorching heat from the weekend isn’t completely gone to start the week. In general, the weather will be cooler than last week, though we’re still expecting above average temperatures for this period. Luckily, we’ve gotten some rain from the extended period of unsettled weather last week and over the weekend, which is helping to ameliorate drought conditions over the region.
Rest of today – high temperatures around 90ºF with a heat advisory in effect. It would appear that a round of rain and/or thunderstorms is headed towards the area around 8PM tonight.
Tuesday – a nearly stationary front will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop in the region, particularly in the afternoon hours. Only a tad cooler with high temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly cloudy skies.
Wednesday – the stationary front mentioned above will lift north eventually as a warm front. This will set the stage for some possibly strong thunderstorms on Wednesday as a trailing cold front makes its push into the area. High temperatures will again be in the upper-80s with partly sunny skies.
Thursday – with a cold front finally moving through, we should see an end to the rain chance, and temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly sunny skies, but with a drier, less humid feel.
Drought Conditions Improving?
The near-term outlook for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center both point to above average trends.
Despite warm temperatures, the last week of multiple rounds of rain has helped improve drought conditions in some portions of the region. You’ll see in the second graphic below, due to the rains both up to this point and that are forecast, drought removal might happen for much of the Southeaster New York area in the next month. This includes NYC but excludes Long Island, where a severe drought continues.
