NYC Weather Update – Jul 4, 2016

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Rain moves through tonight, and then temperatures warm through the course of the week as a Bermuda high takes control. There’s a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday – otherwise this week will certainly feel like summer.

Rest of today (Independence Day) – increasingly cloudy, with a high near 85ºF. Forecasts last week seemed to indicate a rain-free weekend outside of Friday night when we experienced some severe thunderstorms. It now appears that an area of low pressure tracking to our south will bring rain to the area tonight. Currently, the timing of the rain appears to bring it in the city right around the time that the fireworks display is scheduled to kick off. The heaviest rain won’t begin falling until later tonight, so I don’t think this will wash the fireworks out, but it will result in less than ideal viewing conditions if you plan on being outside at the display.

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Tuesday – steady rains should end by the morning rush tomorrow, though a lingering shower could pop up till around noon. Decreasing clouds with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Wednesday – temperatures heat up into the low-90s, with dewpoints holding steady in the mid-upper 60s, it will feel like August. A Bermuda high will take hold through the end of the week, which could bring our first heat wave of the season.

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Thursday – mostly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms developing late in the day. High temperatures around 90ºF. 

NYC Independence Day Weekend Weather – Jun 30, 2016

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The holiday weekend ahead will be picture perfect for nearly any type of outdoor activity, with the caveat that it will start off with some stormy weather on Friday evening/night. This batch of storms may impact travelers as they make their getaway from the city, but once they pass, the rest of the weekend will be a real gem. Any fireworks displays not scheduled for Friday night should go off without a hitch.

Rest of today – warm with a light breeze from the northwest, less humid, high in the mid-80s with sunny conditions.

Friday – mostly cloudy, high around 80ºF, increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms especially toward the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds. Storms continue into early overnight hours.

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Saturday – sunny, high in the low-80s.

Sunday – clone of Saturday, high in the low-80s. High pressure begins to dominate the weather over the region.

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Monday (Independence Day) – another sunny, spotless day, with highs in the low-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 27, 2016

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Weather this week and going into the July 4th weekend will be pleasant and dry, with the only real chance for rain during the next several days occurring overnight Tuesday as a cold front pushes through.

Rest of today – temperatures dropping through the day to the mid-70s by the PM rush, humid, with highs already topping out in the low-80s under partly sunny skies. A small chance for widely scattered showers exists later this evening.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the lower-80s. Chance of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day, though most likely in the afternoon. Overnight, the cold front associated with this round of precipitation pushes through, and this will serve as better trigger for showers and thunderstorms overnight.

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Wednesday – a small lingering chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms remains during the first half of the day. Otherwise, partly sunny with highs in the low-80s.

Thursday – dry, sunny, high temperatures in the low-80s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 24, 2016

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The run of sunny, dry weather that we’ve had (with the exception of Thursday this past week) continues into the weekend. With no significant rain anticipated in the next week, drought conditions continue to worsen over the region. Next week, high pressure to the west will drive cooler than normal temperatures, with high temperatures in the low-80s.

Rest of today – sunny with a high in the low-80s.

Saturday – a copy of today, sunny with a high in the low-80s.

Sunday – slightly warmer, but sunny again with highs in the mid-80s. High pressure will be firmly in control.

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Monday – mostly sunny during the day, highs again in the mid-80s, chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight into Tuesday as a cold front passes through.

Cooler than Normal Next Week, Drought Worsens

As the cold front referenced above moves through next Tuesday, it will leave a high pressure center with Canadian origins in control. This setup favors cooler temperatures, and a drier airmass. Hence, the Climate Prediction Center shows that much of the eastern half of the US will should experience below normal temperatures next week.

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The continued lack of significant rainfall has led to the expansion of moderate drought which now covers much of northeastern New Jersey, southeastern New York, and all of Long Island.

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NYC Weather Update – Jun 20, 2016

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We couldn’t have asked for better weather this past weekend, and Sunday in particular was a real gem for all the fathers who had outdoor plans. The run of nice weather gets a couple interruptions this week for some much needed rain, with the first half of the week heating up before a cool down mid-week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with a high temperature in the low-80s. Today also marks the first official day of summer, which begins at 6:34PM EDT. For the first time in 70 years, the summer solstice will also coincide with a full moon.

Tuesday – a cold front pushes through overnight into Tuesday. There could be some showers/thunderstorms in the early morning hours, but these are unlikely to linger much beyond daybreak. Once the frontal boundary clears, winds pick up inland from the west, ushering in a warmer, though less humid airmass. Temperatures should rise steadily into the upper-80s to near 90ºF in a couple spots under clearing and mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – pleasant, sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Thursday – the next chance at rain comes with a low pressure system moving during the afternoon hours Thursday. Uncertainty remains as to the exact track of this incoming storm system. A southerly track would result in less potential for severe weather/flash flooding, and this is the scenario that forecast models seem to suggest now. Either way, it will be a cooler day with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper-70s, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day into the overnight hours.

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Friday – much improved conditions with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-80s.

Drought Worsens, Likely to Persist this Summer

The continued lack of significant rainfall this Spring has led to increasingly dry soil. The US drought monitor now has some regions of the Northeast in an area of moderate drought. The outlook for the summer suggests that the drought will persist, without much improvement.

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NYC Weather Update – Jun 14, 2016

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Last weekend and the start of this week have been pleasant, albeit with a couple days that were quite windy. This week, generally fair weather continues, with a small chance for light rain Thursday into Friday. The Father’s Day weekend ahead looks to be ideal for outdoor activity.

Rest of today – mostly clear, high in the upper-70s.

Wednesday – another sunny day with high temperatures in the low-80s.

Thursday – chance of light rain with a frontal boundary stalling to our southwest. Best chances for rain will be mainly south and west of NYC. High temperature in the upper-70s with mostly cloudy skies.

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Friday – lingering chance for showers in the morning, gradually clearing skies later in the day, highs in the mid-70s.

Saturday – sunny, with highs in the upper-70s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 10, 2016

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We’ve had a week of fairly mixed weather, with some days that saw thunderstorms, but a fair mix of sunny and dry conditions also. This weekend, we get another mixed bag, with a possibility of thunderstorms approaching severe limits Saturday, and a great day on Sunday. Looking ahead, high pressure begins to dominate and will ensure dry weather for the coming week.

Rest of today – we’ve hit our high in the mid-upper 70s, and we’ll continue to have sunny weather, and it’ll be a pleasant night with lows in the upper-50s to around 60ºF.

Saturday – the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a slight risk of severe weather for Saturday. We could see some thunderstorms rumble through in the afternoon hours as a warm front pushes in from the west, however, they will be weakening as they approach more stable air near the coast, so it’s possible these storms fizzle out before they reach the city. These storms will be moving from northeast to southeast from the interior of Upstate New York. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with highs in the upper-70s.

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Sunday – winds pick up behind the passage of the warm front mentioned above. Temperatures also warm up into the low-80s with sunny skies.

Monday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. High pressure begins to take control over our weather.

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Tuesday – much the same as Monday, pleasant, mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper-70s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 7, 2016

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After a couple of warm days to start the week, temperatures cool off as a cold front moves through later this evening. A second frontal boundary passes through tomorrow, ushering even cooler, and dry weather for the remainder of the week. Another chance for rain is possible Saturday as a weak Alberta clipper system impacts the area.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with a high in the low-mid 80s. There is a possibility for scattered showers and thunderstorms especially inland later this afternoon between 3-5PM as a cold front approaches from the west. Some of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts and small hail, but these are unlikely to impact the city and coastal areas where the air mass is more stable due to the influence cool ocean waters.

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High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for today at 3:30PM

Wednesday – with the cold front having passed through, temperatures cool off into the low-70s. The day starts out sunny but clouds will increase ahead of another frontal boundary nears in the afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, a better chance for showers and thunderstorms develops, and once again there could be some widely scattered strong-marginally severe storms.

North American Model High Resolution simulated radar output for Wednesday at 11AM.
North American Model High Resolution simulated radar output for Wednesday at 11AM.

Thursday – temperatures will range in the 50s overnight into Thursday, leading to yet another day of below average, but comfortable temperatures in the low-70s with northwest wind driven by high pressure building to the southwest over the Mississippi Valley. This will pull in a drier, fall-like airmass from Canada.

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Friday – slightly warmer with highs in the low-mid 70s, mostly sunny.

Saturday – there’s a chance for some scattered showers Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours as an Alberta clipper system approaches, otherwise, partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 3, 2016

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Last weekend featured weather more typical of late-July for the region. This weekend, temperatures will be much cooler, and we may see some heavy rain and possibly even a marginally severe thunderstorm Sunday. Next week, temperatures remain in the below to near-normal range as we feel the impacts of a lingering low pressure over Eastern Canada.

Rest of today – cloudy, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Areas of rain will continue pushing through the area until around 3PM this afternoon.

Saturday – the nicer of the weekend days, partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Some chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms especially north and west of the city.

Sunday – a warm front pushes through early, putting us in the warm sector prior to the approach of a cold front associated with a low pressure center over Quebec. This set up could support the development of marginally severe thunderstorms, and the training of multiple storm cells could also lead to some minor flooding. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s. Rain tapers off overnight.

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Storm Prediction Center has put portions of the region under a slight chance for severe weather Sunday.

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Monday – weather calms down again and temperatures go back up to around 80ºF as clouds clear up.

Tuesday – mostly sunny with a high again near 80ºF.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 27, 2016

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It’s been a week of hot, summer-like temperatures in the city, and this will continue into the Memorial Day weekend as the official kickoff of the summer season gets underway. It’s going to be an excellent weekend for hitting the beach as a pleasant, cooling sea breeze will be present. Memorial Day itself looks increasingly like a rainy day, with precipitation enhanced by an influx of tropical moisture from what could very shortly become the second named tropical storm (Bonnie) of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Rest of today – warm and humid with high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90ºF. Cloud cover increases this afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms are possible along a sea breeze front, mostly confined to upper elevations in the Lower Hudson Valley.

Saturday – sunny, hot and humid again with high temperatures around 90ºF – a persistent Bermuda High will be the driver of these hot temperatures.

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Sunday – another very warm day with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. A backdoor cold front is expected to near the area, but not push through and this frontal boundary could serve as a trigger for thunderstorms, but these will be limited to areas north of the city.

Monday (Memorial Day) – significantly cooler, mostly cloudy, with periods of rain likely as a cold front approaches slowly from the west. High temperatures in the mid-70s. Rainfall may be enhanced by tropical moisture associated with what will likely become Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Tropical Storm Bonnie

An area of showers associated with a low pressure center off the coast of Florida has been steadily becoming better organized over the last couple days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a 90% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Bonnie. Though there won’t be a direct impact on this region, the moisture from this storm could drive heavy rain on Monday.

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Satellite imagery of the low pressure area that is likely to become TS Bonnie

A Hot Summer Coming?

The Climate Prediction Center continues to call for a hot summer for almost the entirety of the United States in its latest 3 month temperature outlook.

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