NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 15, 2016

Hope you did your taxes early because you’re not going to want to be inside this weekend. The weather will be fantastic with lots of sun and warm temperatures. This span of beautiful weather continues right through the beginning of next week. Looking ahead, it is safe to say that we are out of the grips of winter for good.

Rest of today – clear with high temperatures around normal in the low-60s.

Saturday – high pressure dominates the region with more sun, and slightly warmer temperatures in the low-mid 60s.

Sunday – warmer, with highs topping off in the upper-60s to the low-70s.

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Monday – warmer still, with high temperatures in the low-70s generally.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 11, 2016

After a cold start to the first full month of spring, we’re finally turning the corner and headed into a gradual warming trend to end the month. This week looks good, with mostly dry weather except for Tuesday, and temperatures at or slightly above normal in the upper-50s to around 60ºF.

Rest of today – skies have been clearing up the past few hours, though there are more clouds to our west. However, no rain is expected to fall until much later in the overnight hours and temperatures should be pleasant in the mid-50s.

Tuesday – rain in the morning, cloudy and warmer with high temperatures around 60ºF.

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Wednesday – mostly sunny day with high temperatures again in the upper-50s to around 60ºF under the influence of a high pressure center.

Thursday – basically a copy of Wednesday, but perhaps a couple degrees warmer.

Friday – the streak of good weather continues, another nice day pretty much like Friday.

Warming Trend

Above normal temperatures are expected for almost the entire country, including the Northeast, for pretty much the remainder of the month.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 7, 2016

Wet, but much warmer weather today gives way to another blast of cold air this weekend. Light accumulating snow (1-3″) will be a real possibility Saturday and Saturday night before temperatures moderate back closer to season averages for this time of year to start next week.

Rest of today – cloudy, with gusty winds up to 40-50mph from the south and southwest. High temperature in the low-60s. Periods of rain with some thunderstorms possible this afternoon. The first batch of this rain will come in a line around 1PM this afternoon, with a second round of rain hitting later this evening at around 9PM.

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Friday – temperatures cool off into the mid-50s with a very small chance for lingering showers and mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-30s.

Saturday – a reinforcing arctic front will sweep through during the day on Saturday, such that high temperatures will peak early in the upper-30s before dropping into the low-30s into the 20s overnight. Precipitation will start off as snow at the coast, transition to rain for a period during the afternoon, but then turn back to snow late in the day. When it all settles, we could have 1-2″ of snow on the ground here in the city.

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Sunday – skies clear out with high pressure taking control after the storm passes on Saturday, but temperatures will be cold, only the mid-40s.

Monday – an advancing storm system from the west will shift winds to the south and allow for temperatures to rise back to seasonal averages in the mid-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 4, 2016

I thought we had seen the last of the snow this spring, but winter stubbornly will not give up. This week, we’ll see the coldest weather we’ve encountered since the depths of winter, with low temperatures dropping into the upper-20s in the city and even teens for outlying areas. A brief warm up occurs this Thursday before the cold returns again.

Rest of today – windy with periods of rain in the city. High temperatures will likely top off in the upper-40s to near 50ºF. Temperatures plummet into the upper-20s following the passage of the cold front that’s responsible for this round of precipitation.

Tuesday – clear skies will belie the much below normal high temperatures for the day which will be only around 40ºF. A freeze warning is in effect for most of the coastal regions in the Tri-State area given the overnight lows that will be substantially below freezing.

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Wednesday – the high pressure pictured above will be in firm control Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday. A cloudless sky overnight will make for ideal conditions for radiational cooling, resulting in low temperatures again in the mid-20s. High temperatures will be warmer in the mid-40s with increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system.

Thursday – a surge of warmer air will accompany the next storm system to impact the area Thursday. This storm system will bring widespread rain and even some thunderstorms late in the day Thursday. High temperatures should reach well into the upper-50s and near 60ºF.

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Friday – following the passage of the storm on Thursday, temperatures cool off again into the upper-40s under mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 1, 2016

It’s going to feel like a bad April Fool’s joke hit us this weekend when the weather turns to a locked in pattern of below average temperatures – cold enough at times to support snow, perhaps even enough to accumulate. Hard to believe that we almost hit 80ºF in February.

Rest of today – a potent storm system that pummeled large parts of the south with severe weather, including tornadoes, will be moving through the area this afternoon. We won’t see anything nearly as powerful as the storms that hit the south, but it does look like there will be two rounds of moderate rain with a few thunderstorms. The first batch looks to hit around noon and lunch hours, while the second arrives later this evening around 7PM. Gusty southwest winds up to 30mph ahead of the passage of the cold front responsible for these storms will bring temperatures well into the upper-60s and low-70s.Screen Shot 2016-04-01 at 9.49.35 AM Screen Shot 2016-04-01 at 9.49.53 AM

Saturday – much cooler with temperatures in the upper-50s to around 60ºF. A chance for scattered showers remains due to the approach of another cold front from the Great Lakes.

Sunday – we’ll begin to feel the chill in earnest on Sunday as temperatures drop into the mid-30s overnight from Saturday into Sunday. A polar vortex will be moving in over a large part of the northern United States. There could even be some snow showers in the city on Sunday morning before skies clear and winds pick up from the northwest into the 20-30mph range with clearing skies. High temperatures will only be in the mid-40s, nearly 10ºF below average.

Monday – a warm front preceding a low pressure system will move through Monday allowing for temperatures to rise into the low-50s, however, this will be accompanied by rain. Overnight into Tuesday, temperatures should cool enough for this rain to transition to all snow for a period.

A Cool April

The polar jet stream will be dipping well south of us during the medium term, allowing for a polar vortex to move over the region. This will lead to a cooler than average first half of the month, and possibly the entire month. Today might be the last day we see the 60s and 70s for quite some time, so go out and enjoy it while you can.

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NYC Weather Update – Mar 28, 2016

There will be a wet start and end to this week, with some fairly dramatic swings in temperatures in between as two storm systems affect the tangible weather across our region.

Rest of today – rain is tapering off across the region and there should be a slow clearing late in the day. High temperatures in the mid-50s.

Tuesday – the low pressure responsible for the wet weather today will strengthen as it departs to the northeast. The tightening pressure gradient will allow for stiff west winds to sweep across the area, in the 25-30mph range with gusts as high as 50mph. High temperatures will be about average in the low-50s with mostly sunny skies.

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Wednesday – winds will diminish overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. With high pressure in place, this will set the stage for excellent radiational cooling that will allow for temperatures to plummet into the mid-30s and below freezing outside of the city. Temperatures should rebound back into the low-mid 50s during the day Wednesday.

Thursday – winds will switch to the southwest and temperatures will warm up into the mid-60s, despite increasing cloud cover. A chance of rain develops later in the afternoon with the approach of a cold front.

Friday – rain is likely for the first half of the day with temperatures about the same as Thursday in the mid-60s.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 25, 2016

Easter weekend will be bookended by wet weather, but the weekend days themselves should be dry with temperatures around average for this time of year.

Rest of today – an earlier round of showers passed through earlier this morning. Another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms will pass through the region along with a cold front in the afternoon hours. It appears that there will be a good chance for rain between the hours of 12PM-6PM, after which skies should gradually clear.

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Saturday – a cooler airmass will take over following the cold front today, so temperatures to start on Saturday will only be around 40ºF. Under mostly sunny skies, the high temperature should still hit normal levels in the low-50s.

Sunday (Easter) – clouds will be on increase for Easter, though no rain is expected. High temperatures will range in the mid-50s.

Monday – our next shot at rain arrives Monday with a warm front and a low pressure system moving up the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, in the upper-50s.

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NYC Weather Update – Mar 21, 2016

February 2016 resolutely smashed previous records for the largest deviation above normal temperatures for any given month (which was previously set in January 2016). Thus far, March has yielded temperatures more typical of late-May, and also two instances of late season accumulating snows. This week, the weather warms up again, and there’s certainly no snow on deck.

Rest of today – clouds have largely cleared out with the passage of last night’s coastal storm that left behind some marginal accumulations across the region, the highest totals occurring quite a ways east of the city, but capped at only about 3″. There will be no trace of the snow by this afternoon as temperatures warm into the upper-40s.

Tuesday – very similar to today, with high temperatures in the upper-40s and mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – winds turn to the southwest ahead of an advancing frontal boundary that will pass late Thursday/Friday, allowing temperatures to surge into the low-60s with increasing clouds.

Thursday – tricky temperature forecast due to the timing of approach of the aforementioned frontal boundary. If that boundary is a bit slower than current forecasts or lifts further north, we could see temperatures well into the 60s. Temperatures should be quite mild in the mid-upper 50s even outside of this scenario.

Friday – the next chance at rain and possibly a couple of thunderstorms occurs late Thursday into Friday morning with the anticipated passage of a cold front. Despite the passage of this front, temperatures will still be well above average in the upper-50s.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 17, 2016

Meteorologically, March is a month of highly changeable weather that can swing from one extreme to another. Thus far this month, we’ve seen snow, and record warm temperatures near 80ºF. This week is no different, and it ends with the possibility for a significant coastal storm that could bring accumulating snow to the region to ring in the official start of spring!

Rest of today – warm, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-60s. An unstable atmosphere looks primed to spawn a few scattered thunderstorms. Atmospheric dynamics are supportive of strong wind gusts and possibly small hail with any storms that form this afternoon. Some of these storms could approach severe limits. Based on the latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output, there look to be two batches of storms, one impacting the region around 2PM, then again around 5:30PM. At the time of this post, two storm cells were moving slowly east over southern Bergen County and the western Bronx respectively.

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Friday – temperatures cool off into the low-mid 50s tomorrow, with a slight chance again for some afternoon showers, though nothing quite as significant as today.

Saturday – an area of polar high pressure will move over southeastern Canada, setting the stage for the winter storm Sunday. Saturday, however, will be a pleasant, sunny day, but temperatures will be below average in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – all eyes turn to a developing coastal storm/Nor’easter. Forecast models are having a rough time handling this storm, with wide variances noted among some of the models from day to day. Given the uncertainty at this time, only a couple days before the expected onset of the storm, it is difficult to guess at the snowfall accumulations from this storm. One thing that is well understood at this point is that temperature profiles will support a primarily snow event, with some rain mixing in at the coast. High temperatures Sunday will struggle to hit 40ºF. Snow should begin in the morning, mixing with rain in the afternoon Sunday afternoon before transitioning again to all snow overnight. A slight variation in the forecast storm track either west or east could result in dramatically different snowfall totals – more updates to come.

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Monday – temperatures rebound back into the mid-40s under partly sunny skies following the passage of this late season snow storm.

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Mar 14, 2016

After a week of being spoiled with late-Spring warmth, we start this week off with a rude awakening of below average temperatures and a rainy, raw day. Temperatures rebound back into above normal ranges quickly, but they won’t be anything like the record-breaking warmth we experienced last week. St. Patrick’s Day looks to be a decent day – at least from a meteorological perspective.

Rest of today – most of the heavier rain has already moved north and east of the area, but lingering showers will punctuate dry spells for the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours. These won’t be the kinds of downpours that get you wet even when you have an umbrella. Combined with a persistent east wind, these showers will be enough to make it feel raw and unpleasant for the day. High temperatures will be below average – only be in the mid-40s with this onshore easterly flow off the ocean.

Tuesday – rain ends early, leaving us with a mostly cloudy day with patchy fog, and a high temperature in the low-mid 50s.

Wednesday – best day of the week by far, as temperatures will rise into the upper-50s to low-60s across the area with partly sunny skies.

Thursday (St. Patrick’s Day) – this day should turn out decently for revelers as temperatures should again be close to 60ºF, however, there is a chance of passing showers in the afternoon.

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