NYC Christmas Weather – Dec 22, 2015

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Winter officially began yesterday night at 11:49PM, though you wouldn’t be able to tell given the incredibly warm weather we’re experiencing and will continue to experience right through Christmas Day. Forget snow – we’re talking thunderstorms possibly happening on Christmas Eve. Hope Santa’s sleigh is electrically insulated!

Rest of today – periods of rain, heavy at times, and cloudy with high temperatures in the low-60s. Timing of a second round of heavier rain seems to be in the 1-3PM window, after which things will calm down.

Screen Shot 2015-12-22 at 10.23.49 AM

Wednesday – another impulse of energy will be arriving Wednesday and we’ll get another shot of rain along with it. The timing of the heaviest rain tomorrow appears to be later in the afternoon, around 4PM and the evening rush. High temperatures very similar to today in the low-60s.

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Thursday (Christmas Eve) – a substantial surge of warm, humid air from the Gulf ahead of a cold front (and around the western edge of a high pressure center located in the Western Atlantic) will almost certainly lead to record high temperatures being crushed across the region. We are talking the possibility of seeing high temperatures topping 70ºF, which for perspective is close to 30ºF above average for this time of year. Because of the warmth and humidity, the atmosphere will be unstable enough to support isolated thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through, though coverage will be isolated at best.

Friday (Christmas) – after the cold front moves through Thursday, we’ll cool off a bit and dry out, but we’re still talking about temperatures easily in the low-60s which could lead to more records being broken. For those who love the milder temperatures, this is certainly a big gift.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 18, 2015

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We get a taste of cool weather this weekend, with high temperatures at or slightly below normal for Saturday and Sunday, before we rebound strongly into much above average and possibly record-breaking warmth once again by mid-week next week. Saturday in particular will be feel quite brisk, with a stiff wind from the west dropping wind chills into the 30s. There could even be a couple snow flurries north and west of the city!

Rest of today – mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with high temperatures hovering in the mid-50s. Temperatures will fall rapidly to near freezing in the city overnight.

Saturday – the low pressure system that was responsible for the soaking rains Thursday will continue to intensify as it moves over the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. As a high pressure center builds to the south, a tightening pressure gradient will yield stiff winds in the 15-25mph range on Saturday. This, combined with a blast of cold air behind the cold front that passed yesterday, will result in high temperatures only in the low-40s, with wind chills making it feel like the 30s throughout the day. There could be enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple flurries over the interior!

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Sunday – high pressure will remain in control Sunday, so expect sunny skies, and with the high pressure center closer to us, the pressure gradient will diminish. Winds should likewise calm down, and it will feel considerably less raw with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Monday – temperatures will jump into the low-mid 50s as the high pressure above moves to our east and return flow of warmer air from the south and southwest begins to take hold.

 

White Christmas? Not a chance.

Looking ahead at the week of Christmas coming up – not only will there be no chance of a white Christmas on the Eastern Seaboard, we could be looking at record-breaking warmth again with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s! The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook and 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook are both strongly confident (> 90% probability) that we will see warmer than average temperatures.

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NYC Weather Update – Dec 14, 2015

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Temperatures remain very warm to start the week, following a weekend of recording-breaking warm weather this past weekend. However, a true cooldown into temperatures within normal ranges for this time of year (high temperatures in the mid-40s) won’t occur until late this week. When that cool down comes around, we could even be looking at a few snow flurries!

Rest of today – widespread fog has taken hold across the region. Fog is expected to lift by around noon, however, generally cloudy conditions are likely to persist through the afternoon. Warm again with high temperatures in the low-mid 60s – higher if clouds break in any areas inland. Later this evening, we get our best shot at a round of showers and even a couple embedded thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through. Timing for this precipitation looks to be around 8PM this evening.

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Tuesday – behind the cold front, skies will clear, giving us a much brighter, but also windier day Tuesday. Still, temperatures remain warm, with highs again approaching the low-mid 60s.

Wednesday – cooler temperatures finally kick in with high temperatures dropping into the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – a secondary surface low will form over the Southeast, associated with a stronger low pressure that will be over the Hudson Bay area. This low brings us our next chance at precipitation, and will yield a mostly cloudy day, with increasing chances for rain in the afternoon as the day progresses.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 10, 2015

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The weekend coming up will see some unusually warm weather coming our way. In fact, high temperatures on Sunday may well approach record-breaking territory at 60ºF or even higher. This near-record warm trend won’t last through next week, so definitely take advantage of this weekend for some outdoor activities.

Rest of today – partly sunny with highs in the upper 50s.

Friday – with a warm front passing through overnight, areas of fog may develop early Friday morning. Once the fog clears, we should see mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures will again be in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.
Saturday – temperatures continue to warm into the low-60s on Saturday with partly sunny skies. High pressure firmly entrenched over the Southeast will be the primary driver allowing a surge of warm air to enter our region.
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Sunday – we could see record-breaking warmth across the region Sunday, with this high pressure still in control and a cold front approaching from the west, increasing the flow of warm air into the area. High temperatures should easily break 60ºF. If cloud cover is less than currently expected, records are likely to be broken.
Monday – the aforementioned cold front makes its approach across the region, bringing us a good chance at some meaningful rain. High temperatures preceding the cold front’s passage are still expected to be quite warm, near 60ºF.
Short-term Temperature Outlook & El Niño’s Impact
Although temperatures will cool somewhat after the cold front passes on Monday, they will nonetheless remain a good deal above average. Seasonal average high temperatures for this time in December are in the low-40s! Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 temperature outlook has our region at a near certain probability of seeing above average temperatures.
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This coheres well with generally understood impacts of an El Niño winter in North America.
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NYC Weather Update – Dec 7, 2015

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A rather uneventful beginning to the work week in terms of weather will be followed by a gradual warmup towards the end of the week. Temperatures the past couple of months have been very much above normal, and in some cases approaching the warmest months on record – this trend looks set to continue at least through to early next week and possibly longer.

Rest of today – surprisingly, there is an Air Quality Alert in effect this afternoon through midnight. Some lingering haze has been a smudge on what will otherwise be a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-50s.

Tuesday – more clouds than sun to start the day, but then clouds diminish as an offshore low exits to our east. This offshore low is not expected to bring any precipitation to the area since it will be passing too far to the south of us. Temperatures will actually be a little cooler than today – in the mid-upper 40s – since winds circulating counterclockwise around this low will be coming from the north.

 

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Wednesday – as the low above exits, a high pressure center will begin to take hold. Return flow from the south around the western edge of this high pressure and a passing warm front will again bring in milder air. High temperatures are expected to be similar to today in the mid-50s, with mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – the warmup continues with temperatures expected to be a couple degrees warmer than on Wednesday, and with ample sunshine.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 04, 2015

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A quite and mild weekend is in store for the region with high pressure in control of the weather throughout the period. Temperatures should climb steadily as winds shift and persist from the southwest. We could see high temperatures near 60ºF by Sunday.

Rest of today – clear to mostly sunny, with highs around 50.

Saturday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-50s.

Sunday – milder, and sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.

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Monday – clouds look to be increasing on Monday with a storm system approaching from the south expected to pass on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler in the mid-50s.

Seasonal Climate Outlooks

As we are entering into the winter, it’s worth looking ahead at what the seasonal climate out looks are from the Climate Prediction Center.

Drought conditions are expected to improve over many areas of the nation, and the persistent moderate drought in our region is forecast to end.

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Temperature and precipitation are forecast to be above normal for the region. As you’ll note from the images below, some fairly significant deviations from normal are expected across large portions of the United States, due in large part to the effects of a strong El Niño that’s been gripping the Eastern and Central Pacific for months now.

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The chart below shows you the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific – notice that a large swathe of the equatorial Pacific from about the international date line east is experiencing extremely warm temperatures for this time of year – a full 5ºC above normal in large areas. This is why climate forecasters can be more confident than usual in their outlooks for temperature and precipitation this season.

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NYC Weather Update – Nov 30, 2015

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We start this week off with cool, but slightly above average temperatures in the upper-40s to around 50ºF. A warm up occurs midweek along with a passing frontal system, then a return back to seasonably cool temperatures takes place to end the week.

Rest of today – increasingly cloudy with high temperatures peaking in the mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday – a warm front approaching from the south will provide for an increasing chance of rain tonight into early Tuesday. Temperatures in some inland areas may support a brief period of freezing rain before transition to all rain occurs early in the morning. Temperatures should reach around 50ºF with periods of light rain.

Wednesday – temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 50s by Wednesday following the passage of the aforementioned warm front and prior to the passage of a cold front. Rain continues in periods throughout the day and begins to taper off late Wednesday going into the overnight hours.

 

 

 

 

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Thursday – once the cold front dives through, winds pick up from the northwest again, and drive temperatures down into the upper-40s to near 50ºF Thursday. Expecting dry and mostly sunny conditions otherwise.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 27, 2015

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Thanksgiving has given us some spectacular weather to be grateful for, but a cool down is in the cards for the region as we enter this weekend. A cold front will be pushing through the area slowly Saturday, bringing some rain, then colder temperatures as cooler air from Canada filters in behind the front. By Monday, high temperatures will only be in the upper-40s.

Rest of today – increasing clouds later today, but for the rest of the afternoon, warm with record-breaking high temperatures in the low-mid 60s.

Saturday – rain likely later in the day, cloudy with cooler temperatures in the mid-50s.noaad2

Sunday – a lingering chance of showers with mostly cloudy skies and a high near 50ºF.

Monday – cooler, but dry, with temperatures only in the upper-40s.

NYC Thanksgiving Weather – Nov 23, 2015

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Thanksgiving week starts off with a chill, but temperatures will warm nicely to end the week. Thanksgiving Day itself is shaping up to be a superb day with above normal temperatures near 60ºF and mostly sunny skies. There’s no real threat of precipitation worth mentioning through the week either.

Rest of today – cool with a high only in the low-40s.

Tuesday – will start off with temperatures barely above freezing in the city, and well below freezing in the outlying suburbs. In fact, a freeze watch has been issued for the city (with the exception of Staten Island, which already had a freeze earlier this fall). Winds will still be kicking up in the early part of the day, bringing wind chill values in the 30s. High temperatures only in the mid-40s.

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Wednesday – the high pressure depicted above will move offshore to our east. This puts us on the west side of the high, and the clockwise, return flow around that high pressure will mean a gradual shift in winds to the southwest, bringing warmer air along with it. Temperatures should rebound back into the lower-50s with lots of sunshine.

Thanksgiving Day – really can’t ask for better viewing conditions for the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Temperatures at the start of the parade should be in the upper-40s to near 50ºF. Light winds should not present a problem for the multitude of balloons. High temperatures should reach into the mid-upper 50s by the afternoon.

Friday – should end up being the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the low-60s ahead of an approaching cold front.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 19, 2015

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A soaking rainstorm passes through the area later today and then paves the way for cooler, drier air to take over this weekend. By the end of this weekend, temperatures will only be in the low-50s and even upper-40s going into Monday. Looking ahead, temperatures return to normal ranges in the low-50s next week before another warmup around Thanksgiving. Currently, it looks as though the first week of December will open up with cooler than average temperatures.

Rest of today – cloudy and warm with a steady wind from the southeast. Scattered light rain is occurring across parts of the area now. The heavier rain should begin falling later this afternoon (around the PM rush) as more moisture works its way in from the south and the storm system closes in, providing better atmospheric conditions for rain. The rains are still much needed for most of the Tri-State area (in particular Souther Connecticut and Long Island) that remains in the grip of a moderate drought.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 5PM EST
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 5PM EST

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Friday – rain ends overnight into Friday morning. Skies clear rapidly with temperatures topping out in the mid-50s.

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind the frontal boundary that will pass early Friday. This high pressure will shift winds to the west and then northwest, bringing in cooler, drier air from Canada. Temperatures will only be around 50 on Saturday as a result.

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Sunday – pretty much a clone of Saturday, mostly sunny skies, cool with highs around 50ºF.

Monday – cooler, with high temperatures that may struggle to hit 50ºF.