NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 7, 2015

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The three day weekend ahead will feature some idyllic autumn weather with plenty of sun for outdoor activities if you’re heading out of town on a getaway. The only blemish in this otherwise stretch of superb weather will be a round of showers and thunderstorms entering the city Friday afternoon and passing through Friday night.

Rest of today – we’re starting off with mostly cloudy skies, but skies should clear rapidly within the next couple hours. After that, we get a mostly sunny afternoon with high temperatures near 70. Clouds re-enter the picture later this evening in advance of an approaching disturbance that will bring us rain on Friday.

Friday – overnight tonight, a warm front will push through the area, such that by Friday morning, winds will switch to the southwest. This will allow for warm air to surge up ahead of a cold front that will be passing through Friday night. This setup is favorable for the possible development of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Chances for rain increase steadily Friday into Friday night. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the upper-70s to near 80.

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Saturday – the cold front moves quickly through the area Friday and by Saturday, skies should clear up, while temperatures cool off into the mid-60s.

Sunday – another picture perfect autumn day with high temperatures in the mid-60s and ample sunshine.

Monday (Columbus Day) – stretch of nice weather continues into Columbus Day, with temperatures slightly warmer in the upper-60s to around 70.

Drought Update

The drenching rains two weeks ago helped alleviate drought conditions over large portions of the Northeast. However, moderate drought conditions stubbornly persist in the NYC metro area, especially in Long Island.

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NYC Weather Update – Oct 5, 2015

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After a week of raw, rainy, windy weather, we return to a warmer, closer to average week with dry conditions. The ample rain that fell last week should have put a dent in the drought conditions over the region. Archetypal fall weather will prevail this week.

Rest of today – skies should clear up gradually over the course of the day. High temperatures should top out in the mid-60s.

Tuesday – warmer, with high temperatures around 70. High pressure building from the west should lead to mostly sunny skies.noaad2

Wednesday – high pressure will be firmly in control, with plenty of sun. High temperatures should be around the low-70s.

Thursday – another nice day on tap with high temperatures in the upper-60s to around 70 and sunny skies.

Hurricane Joaquin Update – Oct 2, 2015

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Good news to report regarding Hurricane Joaquin – since yesterday, forecast models have arrived at a much clearer consensus regarding the track of Joaquin once it leaves the Bahamas – and the resulting forecast track takes it well east of the US East Coast.

This means we will luckily miss any severe impacts from a landfalling tropical cyclone. However, with Joaquin to the south and a ridge of high pressure to the north, continuous onshore northeasterly winds will still present moderate coastal flooding issues. Temperatures will likewise remain cool under the clouds and onshore flow, with rain expected to continue from today until Saturday. Lingering showers may persists on Sunday.

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NYC Weather Update – Hurricane Joaquin in the Picture? – Oct 1, 2015

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This week of damp, grey weather is leading up to a weekend when the uncertain future of Hurricane Joaquin may have an enormous impact on our weather. Since its formation earlier this week, Hurricane Joaquin has intensified steadily into a Category 3 storm currently spinning around the Bahamas. Joaquin’s future is still highly uncertain, and there’s been considerable spread between major forecast models as to where the storm will be at the end of the weekend. At this point, a landfall in the NYC region late this weekend is not out of the question.

Rest of today – cloudy and cool with high temperatures only in the mid-60s.

Friday – rain at times, windy and raw, with northeast winds in the 20-25mph range. It will feel like November with highs only in the mid-50s.

Saturday – similar to Friday in terms of sensible weather, with highs only in the upper-50s.

Sunday – this is where things get interesting depending on the track of Hurricane Joaquin. Depending on how closely Joaquin comes to hitting us, we could be looking at tropical storm conditions building through the day. If, on the other hand, it recurves out to sea, Sunday could be the best day of the weekend.

The Big Question: Where’s Joaquin Going?

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Currently, Joaquin is a Category 3 storm over the Bahamas, with noticeable central eye, and symmetrical outflow in satellite images. Joaquin has been moving southwest along the edge of a subtropical ridge. Joaquin is an environment favorable for continued intensification, sitting over some very warm water with moderate wind shear.

Forecast Track

Over the last couple of days, forecast models have been set in basically two camps, one curving Joaquin northwest into North Carolina or Virginia. The other camp continues to point to a recurvature of Joaquin. Given the large spread between the models, National Hurricane Center forecasters have been emphatic about the degree of uncertainty with the track forecast up to this point.

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Some major forecast models’ track forecasts for Joaquin
Official NHC track forecast
Official NHC track forecast

Potential Impacts

Regardless of the landfall point for Joaquin, it will be contributing to a plume of tropical moisture leading to widespread heavy rainfall over a large portion of the east coast.

With the persistent northeast winds ahead of the northward advancing Joaquin, coastal flooding is also likely to take place in flood prone areas.

5 day rainfall totals
5 day rainfall totals

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 25, 2015

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Missed a couple updates the last week or so. The weather has been fairly uneventful during this stretch, with the second week of September featuring much above temperatures, while this past week has been more seasonable with respect to temperatures. This weekend, the pleasant, fall-like weather continues, with Saturday being the better half of the weekend.

Rest of today – high clouds have decreased in coverage somewhat since earlier this morning, but with an area of low pressure off the Southeastern US edging northward, cloud coverage may increase again later today. There’s also an onshore flow pattern with wind coming from the northeast, which will keep high temperatures suppressed in the low-70s.

Saturday – Canadian high pressure builds north of us, keeping the area of disturbed weather that’s moving northward from the Southeast at bay. This should result in a mostly sunny day. However, with the high pressure center to the north, onshore winds will continue from the northeast, leading to high temperatures again only in the low-70s.

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Sunday – the high pressure above will move southeast offshore of New England by the end of the day Sunday. With the high out of the way, the low pressure to its south will be able to develop again. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with the possibility for rain later in the evening hours. High temperatures remain on the cool side in the low-70s.

Monday – the chance for rain increases Monday with the high pressure completely out of the picture and low pressure moving in. This rain is much needed as a moderate drought persists in the NYC region (in particular Long Island). High temperatures will be warmer with winds from the southwest, temperatures may approach 80.gfs_namer_066_1000_850_thick

Regional Drought Worsens

The tradeoff for the long stretch of dry and pleasant weather is that moderate drought conditions have returned to areas which had been close to being drought-free last month. Moderate drought has redeveloped over much of the NYC metro area, while a persistent drought has continued to affect eastern Long Island. In fact, since August, the percentage of New York State affected by moderate drought has more than doubled.

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NYC Weather Update – Sept 14, 2015

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This is going to be an uneventful week in terms of weather. High pressure dominates through out the period, leading to dry, sunny conditions every day, with the only variation being a warming trend after Tuesday.

Rest of today – gorgeous, fall-like day with high temperatures only topping out in the low-mid 70s. A breezy west wind will make it feel even more like autumn.

Tuesday – warmer, with high temperatures in the low-80s under sunny skies.

Wednesday – warmer still with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Thursday – another picture perfect day with plenty of sun and high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.9jhwbg_conus

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 10, 2015

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Some much needed rain is falling today, with another round of rain coming this weekend. Friday and Saturday look to be the best days out of the stretch, while Sunday has the best chances for rain. The tradeoff for this wet weather will be noticeably less humid, cooler, and more seasonable conditions to start off next week.

Rest of today – we are currently in a dry pocket which should last through the late afternoon hours. The cold front that is initiating these showers and scattered thunderstorms will be slow to move through. A low pressure center that is riding along the frontal boundary is currently parked over us, and as this low continues to move off to the northeast, additional rain is expected develop and wrap around the backside of the low. With this low and the front lingering, we will likely get another round of widespread showers with some heavy downpours possible again later this evening and into the overnight hours. With the rain and cloud cover, highs will only reach the upper-70s before dropping back down.

Friday – once the low pressure and cold front have passed, conditions should begin to improve quickly. There’s a lingering chance for showers in the morning, but by the afternoon hours skies should be clearing with high temperatures around 80.

Saturday – another cold front and low pressure will follow on the heels of today’s system. The timing of precipitation with this system appears to be trending towards late Saturday evening, and primarily overnight into Sunday. This should allow for a mostly sunny day with temperatures again around 80.

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Sunday – showers appear to be likely on Sunday, with an isolated thunderstorm possible as well. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s with the clouds and rain.

Monday – once the storm system passes on Sunday, high pressure building to our southwest will allow cool, dry air from Canada to flow into the area, resulting in temperatures again in the upper-70s, but with mostly clear skies.

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NYC Weather Update – Sept 8, 2015

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Another steamy beginning to week is following on the heels of Labor Day. Today and Wednesday are both days when the temperature could top 90ºF. By Thursday, a strong cold front moves through, bringing the potential for much needed rain and cooling things off considerably for the end of the week.

Rest of today – sunny, hot and humid, high temperatures in the low-mid 90s in the city. Humidity remains just low enough to obviate the need for any excessive heat watches/warnings.

Wednesday – increasing clouds from west to east on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures remain warm ahead of the front, generally in the upper-80s with maybe a couple spots topping 90. There could be a few pop up showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon, perhaps along a sea breeze front in Brooklyn/Queens.

Thursday – widespread showers and thunderstorms will be the order of the day, with cooler temperatures in the low-80s and cloudy conditions. Periods of showers and thunderstorms could persist for extended periods of time, bringing the potential for flash flooding in some locations. Rain ends from west to east gradually during the overnight hours.

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NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather – Sept 3, 2015

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The holiday weekend opens up with a break in the heat, but the relief doesn’t last long before the heat gets turned back on in time for Labor Day itself. We get a chance for a few scattered thunderstorms overnight tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail over the medium to long term.

Rest of today – hot and humid with highs in the low-90s under hazy and cloudy skies.

Friday – a cold front forecast to pass through the area from the north tonight could touch off only a few scattered thunderstorms, since conditions are unfavorable for widespread coverage. The day starts off overcast but as cooler, relatively drier air moves in behind the cold front, skies should begin to clear from east to west. High temperatures will be significantly cooler in the low-80s.

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Saturday – the break in the heat gives us probably the best day of the weekend with comfortable high temperatures in the low-80s and lower humidity along with plenty of sun. This is due to high pressure building over the area.

Sunday – as the high pressure moves offshore and southeast, it allows a warmer, more humid tropical airmass back into the region, heralding a return to very similar weather conditions as what we’ve experienced this week. Highs will climb back up into the upper-80s under sunny skies.

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Labor Day (Monday) – the heat and humidity persists, giving the Caribbean Day Parade an appropriately tropical feel. Temperatures should again reach into the upper-80s with mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 31, 2015

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A heat wave is on for the end of August, and will persist into the beginning of September. A hot, humid tropical airmass will be firmly in control through out the early and mid-week period before we get some heat relief late in the week. The hot temperatures and a lack of widespread precipitation may allow drought to redevelop in some parts of the region, and worsen over Long Island.

Rest of today – possibly the hottest day of the week, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s inland despite some cloud cover and uncomfortable humidity levels.

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Tuesday – a weak backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, although no precipitation is anticipated due to insufficient instability. Tomorrow should see high temperatures in the lower 90s again under sunnier skies.

Wednesday – the heat wave continues with temperatures yet again expected to top out in the low-mid 90s with sunny skies. There could be a few isolated pop-up showers/thunderstorms late in the day with very limited coverage.

Thursday – expected to be the last day of the heat wave, sunny with high temperatures at or above 90.