NYC Weather Update – Apr 7, 2015

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This will be my last post for another few weeks as I will be traveling in South America. This week, we have an active weather pattern that will lead to a series of periods of rain. Mid-week, temperatures will be well below normal (mid-40s), but towards the end of the week, through the weekend, and to begin next week, temperatures will rebound to slightly above normal (low 60s).

Today – we’ve already had a round of light to moderate rain pass through earlier this morning. The rest of the day will feature temperatures falling through the 50s, along with overcast skies and a light onshore flow. A second round of rain looks set to hit the area around the evening rush hour today.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 5PM today.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 5PM today.

Wednesday – a raw, rainy, and cold day is in store tomorrow. A stationary front (the reason for the extended period of unsettled weather) will push through late Tuesday as a cold front. This will allow for much colder air from Canada to enter the area, which will lead to temperatures only in the mid-40s (10-15º below normal). Periods of rain are likely throughout the day and into the night.gfs_namer_021_1000_850_thickThursday – essentially a repeat of Wednesday, with chances for rain through out the day, and cold, cloudy conditions otherwise. High temperatures again only in the mid-40s.

Friday – chances for rain continue through Friday as a warm front will be approaching from the south. Once this front pushes through, we’ll see a return to milder temperatures with highs in the low 60s (about 5-8º above normal).

9jhwbg_conus

The Weekend – conditions finally begin to improve on Saturday with a cold front having pushed through. Chance for precipitation dwindles, with highs in the low 60s. Sunday is even better with clear skies and warm temperatures near 60.

Warm Trend for Next Week

Climate Prediction Center has our region in an area of greater than 50% chance of above average temperatures for next week. This should translate to pleasant, spring like conditions for next week!

610temp.new

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 2, 2015

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We’re finally getting a run at some spring-like weather with highs above normal to end the work week. We’ll get some of those April showers that we’re hoping will lead to a fantastic display of spring flowers later this month and May. A cold front passing through Saturday will knock temperatures back a notch, and then we enter into a period of active weather dictated by a stalled frontal boundary the first half of next week.

Today – warm and breezy, with a high near or just over 60. Clouds increasing late, as a warm front approaches from the south. A chance of showers develops overnight as this warm front continues moving towards us.

 

Friday – an even warmer day on tap, with that aforementioned warm front having passed through. We’ll be in the warm sector until later when a cold front moves through. High temperatures, despite rain and clouds, should still be able to top out in the lower 60s.

gfs_namer_015_1000_850_thick

Saturday – with the cold front passing through, temperatures will drop on Saturday, back to about normal in the lower 50s. Partly sunny skies will slowly give way to more clear conditions.

Sunday – Sunday through Wednesday will be rather interesting. A frontal boundary is expected to push through Sunday, however, it is then expected to stall in our vicinity for a few days. As waves of low pressure ride along this stalled frontal boundary, the chance for showers persists through Wednesday.

A nice start to next week with above average high temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the mid-upper 50s along with those chances for rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 27, 2015

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We got a taste of what high temperatures should be like for this time of year Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold front that has since moved through will set the stage for a return to below normal temperatures to start the weekend. With a low pressure center well to our east possibly spawning an inverted trough, there is some possibility for light rain/snow mix overnight Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday and we go into next week with about normal temperatures right around 50.

Rest of today – a noticeably colder night on tap with northwesterly winds in the wake of that aforementioned cold front allowing for low temperatures to dip to about freezing. Any lingering precipitation would manifest itself as rain/snow mix, with points further east having a higher chance of seeing wet snow.

Saturday – a much colder than average day, with high temperatures only hitting the mid-upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal. Cloudy, windy, and raw, with snow showers possible early (accumulation unlikely), and rain showers later.

We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.
We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.

Sunday – things clear up nicely as that low pressure keeps pulling off to the east. Temperatures rebound a bit into the low 40s, which is still well below average.

Monday – a continued warmup ahead of a dry cold front, with high temperatures topping out around 50 under increasingly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – a pleasant, seasonable day with high temperatures in the low 50s and mostly sunny skies as high pressure comes into control.

The next chance at precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fast moving clipper system.

Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.
Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 22, 2015

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This upcoming week will feature some big swings in temperature, with high temperatures increasing steadily up through Thursday, when highs could 60 before a cold front swings through. Following the passage of this cold front, we dip back into the mid-40s and continue cooling into the lower-40s this weekend. The temperature trend in the medium term remains below normal, potentially well below normal even through the first week of April, as a series of cold fronts continue to allow cold Canadian air to enter the area.

Monday – an area of high pressure will yield a sparkling sunny day, but will also permit cold, Arctic air back into the region. Northwest winds combined with noticeably cold overnight lows will produce uncomfortably cold conditions. High temperatures Monday may barely break freezing. It’ll be one of the coldest day we’ve had this month.

Tuesday – also gets off to a chilly start, but high temperatures are expected to push up to around 40 (which is more than 10ºF colder than normal).

Wednesday – a clear start, but clouds will be building ahead of a warm front that will pass over the region late Wednesday. Temperatures will steadily climb to near 50, especially after the warm front passes. There will be a slight chance for rain later Wednesday in conjunction with this frontal passage.

Thursday – highs will near if not break 60, however, it is anticipated to be a overcast day with periods of rain possible throughout the day. After the warm front passes Wednesday, we’ll be firmly within the warm sector, between the warm front to our east and the approaching cold front from the west. This setup favors the influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf riding in on persistent southwesterly winds, before a dramatic shift following the cold front passing, with winds becoming west-northwest and a drop in temperatures.9khwbg_conus

 

Friday – high temperatures drop back in to the mid-40s, as clouds break apart and colder, dry air takes hold behind the cold front.

Below Normal Start to April

It’s close to a sure bet (70% probability) that we’ll end the month of March and start April with below normal temperatures, taking a look at the Climate Prediction Centers forecasts below. I know we’re all sick of this seemingly endless winter, but we’re still not out of the woods in terms of temperatures.

6-10 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
6-10 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
8-14 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
8-14 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

 

NYC Weather Update – Mar 18, 2015

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Just when we thought winter was on its last legs, and spring was on its way. Unfortunately, as the Climate Prediction Center forecast a couple weeks ago, a cool down is in the cards to end the month of March. In fact, it will get so cold that snow could accumulate Friday into Friday night. After a brief warmup, another shot of colder than normal air will return to grip the area to end off the month.

Thursday –  a below normal, but dry day with plenty of sun and high near 40.

Friday – (ironically, first day of astronomical spring) a coastal low moving offshore of the Carolinas will then track north. Enough cold air will be in place Friday, along with a persistent northerly flow with counterclockwise circulation around the low pressure center that snow is looking likely during the course of the day. Current forecast snow accumulations are on the light side, no more than 3-4″. If temperatures are even a few degrees warmer than currently forecast, we could get away with little accumulation.

Friday's storm
Friday’s storm

Saturday – things clear up quickly on Saturday with high temperatures back near normal in the mid-upper 40s.

Sunday – a dry cold front moves through Sunday, leading to a drop in temperatures to below normal in the upper 30s.

Cool Off Coming Up

The climate prediction center continues to point to cooler than normal temperatures for the last two weeks of March. One can only hope that the temperatures are not so cold as to allow for more snow, but I wouldn’t rule this possibility entirely out given some of the longer term forecast models.

6-10 temperature outlook
6-10 temperature outlook
8-14 day temperature outlook
8-14 day temperature outlook

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 13, 2015

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The weekend gets off to a wet start, with rain beginning overnight and Saturday a complete washout. By Sunday, conditions will improve and there will be a slight warmup to start the week, before we return to below normal temperatures by mid-week next week.

Rest of Today – increasing clouds will be a precursor for rain later in the overnight hours. If you plan on being out past midnight (really more like 2AM), grab an umbrella just in case. The bulk of the rain doesn’t look to begin until after 2AM, however, once it starts, it will be essentially continuous until Saturday evening. Prior to the passage of a warm front late overnight into Saturday morning, overnight lows may be cold enough to support some mixing of sleet for a brief period in the city. There is actually a freezing rain advisory for northern areas, where a colder thermal profile could support some freezing rain.

Simulated radar image for 3AM EST, Saturday, Mar 14, 2015. High Resolution Rapid Refresh model.
Simulated radar image for 3AM EST, Saturday, Mar 14, 2015. High Resolution Rapid Refresh model.

Saturday – it will actually be a mild day on Saturday subsequent to the passage of the warm front mentioned above. Any freezing rain/sleet that occurs early in the morning will quickly transition to rain, increasing in intensity during the morning. High temperatures near 50, combined with drenching rain, should be enough to finally washout any remaining snowpack near the city (although places like Long Island that got more snow this season will probably see it persist).

Sunday – there could be a couple remaining sprinkles Sunday morning, but overall, this should be a dry day, partly sunny, and breezy day. High temperatures will be near normal around the mid-40s.

Monday – it’ll be a nice day Monday with a warm front passing through, and high temperatures in the normal range near 50.

Tuesday – another day of normal temperatures near 50. A cold front pass through by Wednesday, which will lead to a cooler than normal day.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 10, 2015

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We’ve finally had a stretch of warmer than average weather after what seemed like an endless winter. Things are set to get even warmer tomorrow in the wake of tonight’s rain storm, before cooling off back into normal range to end the week. Another round of rain (with some mixed precipitation inland) will be impacting the area Friday into Saturday.

Rest of today – light rain falling now should increase in intensity over the course of the evening. Steady rain is expected overnight. Dense fog and low visibilities may be a problem overnight into the early morning hours, due to the influence of a saturated, warm airmass approaching an area of colder air. Overnight lows in the low 40s, with dew points around the same (fog often forms when dew point = air temperature).

Wednesday – any remaining rain should end quickly tomorrow morning. Clouds will give way to sun as high pressure begins to take hold over the area. Before too cold air gets into the area due to a northwest wind, we should see temperatures reach the mid-50s (wouldn’t be surprised if some spots hit close to 60 with the increasing daylight hours).

Thursday – another pleasant, and seasonable day, with plenty of sun and high temperatures around normal in the mid-upper 40s.

High pressure in control
High pressure in control

Friday – one more day of decent weather, but with slightly more clouds than Thursday. Temperatures should top out around the mid-40s again. The next storm system approaches from the west and rain should begin to fall during the late evening hours. Overnight, some mixing with snow/wintry mix could occur, however, by daybreak Saturday, temperatures will be well above freezing and any mixing should return to all rain.

Saturday – a rainy day, but on the mild side with temperatures near 50.

Next storm coming Friday into Saturday
Next storm coming Friday into Saturday

A cooldown coming
Unfortunately, after a week of normal temperatures, we are likely to see a return to below normal temperatures for the second half of March, based on the following forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center. High pressure will be dropping down from Canada again next week, leading to this greater than 60% probability of below normal temperatures. Luckily, since normal temperatures are now in the upper 40s, the below normal temperatures will not mean a return to the frigid tundra.

Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature outlook
Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature outlook
Climate Prediction Center 1 month temperature outlook for March
Climate Prediction Center 1 month temperature outlook for March

NYC Weather Update – Mar 5, 2015

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Today may be the last major winter storm of the winter for us. It certainly has been an eventful and cold winter for the books. We’ll end the week and start off this weekend and early next week with below normal temperatures, but temperatures will rise steadily throughout next week, such that we should be back to normal temperatures in the mid-upper 40s by the end of next week.

Rest of today – snow is already tapering off over the area, with widespread snowfall totals of between 4-8″ reported (largely in line with forecasts). Any remaining precipitation should completely clear the area within the next couple of hours. Screen Shot 2015-03-05 at 4.58.33 PM

Friday – we endure what we all hope will be the last day of temperatures in the low-mid 20s as cold, dry air filters in behind this storm system.

Saturday – high pressure moves in over the weekend, with temperatures Saturday edging up to around freezing.

gfs_namer_036_1000_850_thick

 

Sunday – fair weather continues, but perhaps with more clouds on Sunday as some weak impulses of energy move over areas well to the north of NYC. High temperatures will increase to the low 40s.

Monday – the warming trend continues as spring approaches, high temperatures continue to warm into the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies.

Finally leaving the Arctic air behind?

A large scale warming trend is forecast to take hold over much of the US during the medium term. Temperatures next week should warm progressively such that by next Friday, we’ll be looking at (gasp) high temperatures near 50. The week after, on the cusp of spring, almost the entirety of the Continental US is forecast to experience warmer than normal temperatures, with the exception of Texas, and New York into Southern New England. However, we are forecast to be in normal range of temperatures for this time of year, which means mid-upper 40s. Not quite flip flops and t-shirt weather, but a positive trend nonetheless.

814temp.new

NYC Weather Update – Mar 2, 2015

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March will start off with quite an active, messy week for us. During the middle of the week, we’ll see snow, rain, and then more snow, before we end off the week with temperatures well below normal once again.

Tuesday – clouds will begin to increase throughout the day with chances for snowfall increasingly steadily as well. Not much in the way of accumulating snow is expected during the day Tuesday. High temperatures around 30.

Wednesday – overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, temperatures will actually rise as a warm front pushes through. This will allow temperatures on Wednesday to top 40. Snow early on will give way to sleet, then eventually transition to all rain. This period of rain should melt some of the existing snowpack, and there could be some minor/nuisance flooding of poor drainage areas as this occurs.

noaad3

Thursday – once the cold front depicted above pushes through late Wednesday, cold air will rapidly fill in behind it and allow for temperatures to drop back into the mid-20s. As this occurs, a second wave of low pressure is expected to form over the Mid-Atlantic and move over the area. This may lead to enough precipitation to warrant a Winter Storm Warning, with 6″ of snow possible by Thursday afternoon. Highs will be near 30. gfs_namer_066_1000_850_thick

 

Friday – as these storms finally move away, Friday will be a sunny day, but with Arctic air back in place over the area, we’ll be once again welcoming high temperatures in the mid-20s, which at this point is over 15 degrees below normal.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 26, 2015

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Another cold weekend is on tap for the area, before the start of a week of active weather. It does appear that March will be coming in like a lion this year.

Rest of today – some sun, with a chance for light flurries and a high in the mid-20s.

Friday – diminishing clouds with a high temperature again in the mid-20s. High pressure begins building to our west, yielding northwesterly winds that will allow chilly, Arctic air to filter back into the area. Overnight lows Friday will be in the low teens.

Saturday – with high pressure to our west still firmly in control, it will be a sunny, but cold day, with highs again only in the mid-20s.

gfs_namer_036_1000_850_thick

 

Sunday – clouds will be increasing ahead of an approaching storm system and as high pressure exits to the east. There will be a slight warmup ahead of the storm, with temperatures topping out near freezing. Snow likely overnight, although significant accumulations are not expected.

Monday – temperatures will warm potentially into the low 40s on Monday as warm air from the southwest gets pulled into the storm system. There may be some mixed precipitation along the coastal plain, with all snow elsewhere, mostly early in the day.9khwbg_conusTuesday – following the passage of the storm on Monday, temperatures dip back to around freezing, ahead of another storm system that will be impacting the area Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm has a greater potential significant precipitation.