NYC Weather Update – Mar 10, 2014

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After a quiet weather weekend, the NYC area will be experiencing a mid-week storm.

Tuesday – a mild day with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-upper 50s across the area ahead of the frontal system that will impact the region on Wednesday. The cold front will be draping west-east and positioned through Pennsylvania, allowing a westerly flow of warm air into the area.

Wednesday –  the surface low pressure responsible for the mid-week storm will be over the central Ohio valley. Precipitation will extend eastward from the low pressure center along the frontal boundary referenced above. The center of the storm is forecast to pass right over the NYC region. Coastal areas should see all rain from this storm with a warming onshore flow developing (east winds). Areas in the interior could see a mix of rain/snow and possibly freezing rain. Heavy rain could develop during the afternoon hours.

Thursday – the low pressure center will strengthen as it passes over NYC and eventually pushes offshore. Cold air will wrap around the low pressure center and winds will shift to the north and northwest. There’s a possibility that the city could see a transition from rain to snow during this period of cooling temps. Temps on Thursday will struggle to only reach the low 30s.

Friday – high pressure will build in briefly Friday allowing a return to mostly clear conditions and warmer temps in the low 40s before the next storm system moves in with a clipper type system moving in from Canada. Dry conditions should lower chances for precipitation on Saturday.

Below: NAVGEM forecast map for 7PM EST Wednesday night. Notice an area of surface low pressure forming off the coast of Southeast NJ.

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NYC Midweek Weather Update – Mar 5, 2014

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Just a quick update on the weather for NYC for the rest of the work week into the weekend. It’s finally going to be a quiet weather week for us after what’s been an cold and snowy February.

Tonight, a slight chance of flurries, and a cold night with fairly good conditions for radiational cooling, lows dropping into the low 20s in the city and teens in the interior. Wind chills in the single digits for Thursday morning.

Thursday – high pressure will prevail and bring sunny skies, but still a cold day with highs in the low 30s. Clouds will increase during the day with another slight chance for snow during the night into Friday morning.

Friday – cloudy with temps warming to the low 40s. As the high pressure center moves offshore, winds will shift to the west.

Saturday – increasingly warm with temps near 50 especially in coastal areas due to a northeast wind off of the relatively warmer ocean waters. A storm system will pass well to our south and east, so no precipitation is expected.

Sunday – slightly cooler with highs in the low 40s and a increasing wind from the north.

Our local NWS forecast office put together a great graphic that shows how this past February stacks up climatologically. Check it out:

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NYC Weather – Monday Storm Update, Mar 2, 2014

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Just a quick update on the storm coming in tonight into Monday. Latest forecast models are showing a much drier atmospheric profile and placing the best areas of lift (associated with heavier precipitation) well south of the immediate NYC area.

That being the case, NWS has lowered the forecast totals for NYC to at most 2-4″. Same for Long Island. Trace to a dusting for northern suburbs. The bulk of the heavier snow will stay to our south, over portions of central and southern NJ. See the following graphic which shows probabilities for greater than 4″ through Tuesday morning. NYC is barely in the 30-40% range. Snow should begin falling this evening and last into the early AM rush hour.

Screen shot 2014-03-02 at 4.04.03 PMWith the cold front having passed through today, we’ll see a return to much colder temps, with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the mid-20s. A gradual warmup will take place towards the middle and end of the week, with temps slowly clawing back to freezing, and even potentially topping 40 by Friday (that would still be about 5-6 degrees below normal for this time of year).

Next chance at significant precipitation will be Friday/Saturday with a possible coastal storm I referenced in the last entry.

NYC Weather Update, Monday Storm – Mar 1, 2014

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Summary

March is coming in like a lion this year (let’s hope it leaves like a lamb), with yet another snow storm to add to our misery here in the NYC area Sunday night into Monday night.

Background

A strong coastal storm that’s currently pummeling California with heavy rain and snow will be transferring its energy and moisture to the aforementioned storm. For California, the rain and snow is a mixed blessing: with a hundred-year drought gripping the region, moisture is welcome; however, so much rain in such a short time window is leading to flash flooding, mudslides, and other headaches. See the video below:

Forecast

Our local NWS forecast office has issued a winter storm watch for Long Island, NYC, and central NJ on south. The latest snow maker will be two waves of low pressure that will travel along the length of an arctic cold front Sunday and Monday. This cold front will across our area during this period, ensuring that the air will be cold enough for all snow during the strongest part of the storm, although precipitation may start off as a rain/snow mix during the day Sunday with highs expected to be in the mid 30s.

The forecast graphic below depicts probabilities of snowfall accumulations at least 6″ or more across the region from 8PM Sunday through 8PM Monday. As you can see, we are right on the cusp of a high confidence zone for more than 6″. As it stands, 6″ seems to be the going number for the areas under the winter storm watch. A slight northward adjustment of the storm track would increase the chances we get more than 8″.

This will be a prolonged weather event – so, moderate snow for a longer time, but less of the heavy snow that we saw with the last storm.

Screen shot 2014-03-01 at 1.50.16 PMOvernight lows on Sunday will be around 20 in the city, and highs Monday will be in the mid 20s, with the cold air flowing in behind the cold front.

Extended Forecast

Things settle down after the storm passes Monday, with mostly clear and dry conditions Tuesday through Thursday. High pressure will dominate, bringing these clear conditions, but also extending the cold snap well into next week as it continues to pump Canadian air into the area. Highs will continue struggling to reach the mid-upper 20s, with overnight lows in the teens at the coast and single digits in the interior.

Interesting note: some of the GFS (Global Forecast System) models are showing the potential development of a strong coastal storm next weekend. Of course, it’s far too early to talk specifics about precipitation type and amounts as this storm may not materialize. The models are fairly consistent in developing a low over the northern Gulf of Mexico, however, a frontal system also develop to be strong enough to push this storm well offshore as it approaches the region.

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NYC Weekend Weather Update & CA Storms – Feb 27, 2014

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First up for the NYC area is a bitterly cold end to the work week.

A reinforcing arctic cold front is set to push through the area during the day today, perhaps spurring a few scattered moderate-heavy snow showers. Accumulation, if any, should be light. Behind this frontal boundary, a west wind between 15-20mph will usher in some of the coldest low temps we’ve seen in recent weeks. Lows in the city are forecast to be in the low teens, with zero to single digits in the interior. Wind chill values tomorrow morning will hover around zero.

Friday will be a sunny day with high pressure moving in. Despite the sunshine, temps will struggle into the 20s across the region.

Saturday, a weak frontal system moves through, but with dry atmospheric conditions, little if any snow is expected. Highs will be in the low-mid 30s.

Sunday-Monday, a prolonged winter weather event is forecast. The storm system currently impacting the west coast (see below) will move over the interior of the country, reorganize, and strengthen over the Midwest. This will lead to a stalled cold front draping across our region with multiple low pressure centers to slide along this front. One of these is forecast to develop into a potentially significant coastal storm. Models are coming into agreement that this storm center could pass close to the 40N 70W benchmark sweet spot.

The duration of the storm, starting Sunday night through Monday night means that it could result in significant snowfall, even with possible mixing in with sleet/rain near the coast during the day Monday. Still too early to tell how much snow – will keep monitoring the situation. High temps on Sunday will be in the mid 30s, then drop back into the low 30s for Monday.

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Too much of a good thing for California?

As I noted in earlier posts, and as has been broadcast by the media, California remains in the grips of a crippling drought. A strong pacific storm system is spinning up multiple bands of heavy precipitation during the end of this week. While that is some good news for the drought, the intensity of the rainfall could lead to mudslides, and localized flooding. The best news out of this storm is that elevations over 7000′ are expected to pick up as much as 1-3′ of snow, adding to a paltry snowpack thus far. Check out the graphic from the San Diego NWS station for a look at the heavy rain fall totals expected (5-7″ in higher elevations near the coast with south facing slopes!).

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NYC Weather, Relief for CA, A Stormy Monday for NY? – Feb 25, 2014

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Keeping eyes peeled on the forecast for Monday, when the next strong storm system is forecast to arrive.

First, there’s some good news for our friends out west. As you can see in this first image, the GFS model is showing a storm system originating in the Pacific bringing areas of moderate to heavy rain over the weekend for California, which is currently in the grips of an historic drought. As the storm center approaches the coast, a strong cold front will swing from south to north through the state. This frontal boundary will spark thunderstorm and rain which should bring mild relief, with 1-2″ of rain forecast for coastal and valley areas, and 2-4″ up to 6″ for south-facing mountain slopes. In addition, heavy snow could fall in the higher elevations of the coastal ranges and Sierra. Welcome news for an area of the country that’s in need of moisture.

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After the storm exits the western US, it is forecast to reorganize over the plains and Midwest, then track into our area. Right now, it’s still to early to say with certainty whether the intensity of the precipitation this storm brings, and whether it will be all snow, a mix, or even mostly rain. Will keep you all updated.

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NYC Weather: It’s gonna get cold – Feb 25, 2014

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The big weather story for the NYC region this week is going to be the return of bitterly cold temperatures across the region, thanks in part to our least favorite visitor, the polar vortex. By the end of the week, we’re looking at high temperatures in the mid to low 20s in the city, with lows in the teens to single digits. To put that into perspective, highs in the low 20s are 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, and just over two standard deviations from the mean.

There is one shot at precipitation during the work week, which is coming Wednesday. Fortunately for us, this storm will be taking a more southerly track, meaning that we’ll likely see under 1″ in the city, with slightly higher amounts out in eastern Long Island. Areas north and west should see trace to no accumulation from this system.

Today – increasing clouds with a high near freezing.

Wednesday – high near freezing, snow flurries likely, especially from the city east. Light accumulation under 1″ in the city – slightly higher east.

Thursday – the polar vortex returns along with a reinforcing dry arctic cold front. Mostly sunny with temps near freezing, but dropping rapidly during the evening hours with an overnight low in the teens.

Friday – clear skies but a high temp only in the mid 20s, overnight low in the teens.

Next shot of precipitation comes Saturday, associated with another arctic cold front. An area of strong high pressure will build in behind the front, pumping in frigid air from Canada for the end of the week.

Interesting to note that the ensemble forecast for the Arctic Oscillation is unanimous at this point that we’ll see a negative phase. As I noted in the earlier post linked above, these negative phases of the AO are often associated with the abnormally cold temperatures, and that certainly looks to be the case again this time around.

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Really Cool Graphic – Tornado Tracks from 1950-2013 Mapped

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Just a super interesting graphic that the Storm Prediction Center put together using GIS data. What you’re seeing is a graphical representation of the track of each tornado that’s impacted the continental United States from 1950-2013. Notice the density in Tornado Alley, a region of the country where geography is conducive to the large scale weather patterns that produce tornadoes. Also, check out the general trend of a northeast vector to the tornado tracks. Lastly, note that although tornadoes are considerably less common in the Northeast, they still do occur with some frequency.

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NYC Weather, The Week Ahead: Return of the Polar Vortex

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A most unwelcome weather pattern in store for the NYC area this coming week: the polar vortex will make its return! Refer to my earlier post about the Arctic oscillation providing conducive conditions for the influx of frigid air into the Northeast for an in-depth analysis on this.

Sunday – another day of fairly mild temps near 50 ahead of the first of several cold fronts. This frontal system has the potential to bring some rain showers along the coastal areas and NYC proper, with some accumulating snow in higher elevations north and west during the overnight hours Sunday. Overall conditions are not that favorable for a high impact event, so I wouldn’t expect anything too out of hand.

Monday – with the passage of the cold front, a cooler day is in store with highs in the mid 40s and winds picking up from the northwest, 15-25mph and gusts up to 35mph. Monday night, the chill sets in.

Tuesday – highs will only top out around freezing in the city as the polar vortex takes hold. A dry day with increasing clouds as we watch the next storm system move in Tuesday night.

Wednesday – all eyes turn to the North Carolina coast as forecast models suggest the development of an area of surface low pressure that then tracks northeast into offshore waters of Long Island. As is generally the case this far out, uncertainty about the storm track, snow-to-liquid ratio, and available moisture make it difficult to be certain as to the impact of this storm. At the minimum, would expect something like 1-3″ in the city with snowfall totals increasing eastward. High temps again struggling to make it above freezing.

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Possible nor’easter in store Wednesday

The remainder of the week will see the polar vortex become entrenched with high temps only in the mid-upper 20s. At least there aren’t any more storms on tap until the weekend!