NYC Weather Update – Jul 5, 2020

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A hot, humid, and stormy start to the week with highs in the low-90s. A backdoor cold front moves through, granting a reprieve from heat mid-week with highs cooling off to the mid-80s Tuesday. The heat comes back after this. Later this week, and into the weekend, a storm with possible tropical characteristics could bring heavy rain to the region.

Rest of today – sunny to start with highs quickly climbing into the low-90s. Clouds increase later this afternoon. A shortwave trough will spark the potential for some showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, around 4PM. These storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds. Overnight lows in the low-70s with rain chances quickly dying off.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Monday.

Tuesday – a backdoor cold front will push through overnight. The onshore flow from the northeast behind this front should result in mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms could still impact the area in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – the backdoor cold front will return north as a warm front Wednesday. Temperatures will remain stable with high temperatures in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Thursday – high temperatures rebound into the upper-80s and low-90s possibly with fewer clouds as high pressure briefly builds in. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Looking towards the end of the week, we’ll be monitoring the progress of a low pressure center that the National Hurricane Center has identified as having the potential to develop tropical characteristics. This storm could bring some heavy rain this weekend.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 29, 2020

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An upper low lingering over the Northeast results in unsettled weather to start this week. With the dynamics brought on by this upper low, there will be chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms each day esp. in the afternoon. High temperatures during this period should be generally in the low-80s. Luckily, this pattern should break in time for the Independence Day holiday weekend.

Rest of today – sunny with highs in the upper-80s to start. Chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some of these thunderstorms could approach severe limits though we aren’t anticipating widespread severe weather today. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Monday.

Tuesday – more clouds resulting in cooler highs in the low-80s. Closed upper and surface lows over the northeast will provide for ongoing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Coverage should again be scattered in nature. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – similar day to Tuesday with highs in the low-80s, mostly cloudy with chances for showers and thunderstorms yet again. The closed upper low referenced above and visible in the graphic below will provide for a cold pool that should enhance lapse rates and increase chances for isolated severe thunderstorms. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

GFS model 500 mb temperature, height, and winds, valid for 2PM Wednesday.

Thursday – the nagging upper and surface lows will finally move off to the east. This should result in better conditions with sunny skies and no tangible risk for rain and thunderstorms. High temperatures should rebound into the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 26, 2020

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A warm and potentially stormy start to the weekend on tap with Storm Prediction Center placing the area under slight risk for severe weather Saturday. Temperatures during this period in the upper-80s. Weather improves on Sunday behind a cold front. Next week, a lingering upper low may bring daily chances for rain in the afternoons.

This afternoon – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s with increasing clouds towards daybreak.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
  • Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Saturday, showing the region under slight risk for severe weather.

Saturday – a warm front pushes through early in the morning and some showers could accompany this. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-80s. A cold front is forecast to push through later, with a prefrontal trough ahead of it. These will serve as the loci for more organized convective activity. Thunderstorms forming in the warm sector behind the early warm front passage may be able to attain severe limits. The main threat is from damaging winds. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances diminishing early.

Sunday – despite the cold front passage, temperatures stay largely similar to Saturday in the upper-80s due to downsloping winds from the west. With an upper low lingering, isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms may pop up in the late afternoon, mostly sunny otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Monday – mostly sunny though a chance for afternoon pop up showers or thunderstorms persists. High temperatures remain warm in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s. Below, you’ll see GFS forecasts for this upper low continuing to influence our weather going into next week. The tangible impacts for this will be continued chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the week until this upper low finally gets picked back up by primary westerly steering currents and moves offshore.

GFS model 500 mb height and wind. You can see evidence of a persistent upper low that drifts south, then gets cutoff from main steering currents, and remains largely stationary, even retrograding west during next week over the Northeast.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 22, 2020

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The first official week of summer brings us warm temperatures in the upper-80s (low-90s interior). Early in the week, there will be chances each day for scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly over inland areas. South facing shorelines should enjoy cooler temperatures with the possibility of sea breezes developign. A cold front passes Wednesday, bringing chances for more organized precipitation. Behind this, skies should clear up but temps remain warm.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 90ºF. Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Coverage would be spotty at best but with plenty of moisture available, any storms could produce heavy rain. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday.

Tuesday – similar to today, with high temperatures peaking near 90ºF and mostly sunny skies to start, then more clouds and some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – a cold front approaches from the west and brings us a better chance for organized showers and thunderstorms later in the day. These storms may be weakening as they hit the area if they arrive late in the day with sunlight diminishing. High temperatures again around 90ºF. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model 500 mb height, relative velocity, valid for 2PM Thursday.

Thursday – behind the cold front, skies should clear up as high pressure builds. However, temperatures will remain warm in the mid-80s with downsloping westerly winds. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

NYC Father’s Day Weekend Weather – Jun 19, 2020

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A slow moving low pressure and upper level low will result in the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the weekend with temperatures in the low-80s. Best chances for these diurnally driven thunderstorms would be in the afternoon hours. There’s a good amount of moisture in the air this weekend with steady southerly flow, so these storms could produce heavy rain, though severe weather is not anticipated. Past this weekend, a warmup to the mid-upper-80s (90s in interior) is forecast as upper level ridging and high pressure builds next week.

Saturday – fog early with cooler, marine flow. Temperatures warm into the low-80s with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms particularly north and west of the city. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – Similar pattern to Saturday with partly sunny skies, isolated showers and thunderstorms developing later in the day particularly west of the city. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Monday – this pattern persists with partly sunny skies, highs in the low-80s and chances for isolated PM thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model 500 mb temperature, height, and wind forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Tuesday – high pressure builds offshore, with upper level ridging and 500 mb temperatures increasing, we should see sunny skies and very warm temperatures nearing 90ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 8, 2020

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High pressure will be the main story this week, providing plenty of sun and summery weather. A chance for rain comes later with the extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal. The timing of this is rain not entirely certain, but it looks like this will be Thursday for now. Temperatures this week should be ranging slightly above normal with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 80ºF. Just a beautiful day with comfortable temperatures and low humidity. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – temperatures warm up into the mid-80s with lots of sun as the high pressure center shifts gradually off to the southeast and we see southerly flow take hold. Humidity still overall not that bad, so it shouldn’t feel muggy. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – high temperatures back down into the low-80s though clouds could be on the increase. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with rain chances possibly increasing.

GOES visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression Cristobal the morning of June 8, 2020, after it made landfall as a tropical storm this weekend over Louisiana

Thursday – a cold front associated with the extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal could bring some rain and thunderstorms to the area. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 5, 2020

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We have a muggy, strormy, and warm start to the weekend with temps in the 80s. Tomorrow, a cold front sweeps through in the afternoon. This will bring relief from the humidity and heat. High pressure builds in going into next week with temperatures back to seasonable ranges in the 70s. We should see an extended period of dry, sunny weather as a result.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy overall with high temperatures in the low-80s. Some shortwaves and surface troughs moving through will serve as the focal point for thunderstorm development. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere today to tap, so storms could produce heavy rainfall, and if enough hit the same locations via training/backbuilding there is potential for localized flooding. Overnight lows in the upper-60s as storm chances continue with fog possible late.

GFS model precipitable water at 8PM today, with values as high as 2.00″ around NYC.

Saturday – clouds diminishing during the day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. A cold front moves through in the afternoon, but will not have the benefit of having as much moisture as today to tap into. Still, an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Downsloping winds behind the cold front should help dry and warm things up. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Sunday – high pressure starts to build and skies remain mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday – high pressure continues to build and provide us another sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 2, 2020

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A stretch of slightly above normal temperatures in the low-80s is in store for us as we kick off the month of June. Temperatures and humidity will pick up noticeably tomorrow with a warm front passing through. Some thunderstorms are possible with the trailing cold front. Weather improves Thursday then rain chances increase again later in the week. The tropics have been active, too, with Tropical Depression Three forming in the Bay of Campeche.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with a chance of showers developing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday.

Wednesday – rain chances continue into the day Wednesday with a warm front passing through early in the day. Temperatures will warm up into the low-80s in response to southerly flow. Some break in the clouds possible between the warm front and a trailing cold front. Clouds increase again later with this cold front. Some thunderstorms could pop up. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances diminishing and clouds clearing.

Thursday – high pressure briefly builds in with temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances increasing again as another frontal system moves in.

Friday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

In the tropics

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to be an active one, and is living up to this forecast so far. A tropical depression formed yesterday in the Bay of Campeche, and if it organizes into a named tropical storm before Thursday, it will break a record for the earliest time for a third named storm to form. For now, this storm poses little risk for the US, but will bring heavy rain to a wide swath of southeastern Mexico and Central America. Later in the forecast period, this storm could track out into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Gulf Coast.

GOES visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression Three in the Bay of Campeche this morning.

NYC Weather Update – May 18, 2020

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While it looked earlier this weekend that this would be a rainy week, it now appears that strong high pressure will keep two storm systems largely at bay. One of these will be the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur that formed this weekend. The tradeoff is that this high of Canadian origin will bring cooler than normal temperatures in the 60s. This pattern breaks up by late this week, yielding warmer temperatures in the 70s by this weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy though no rain expected with high temperatures around 70ºF. Clouds from the two storm systems below will remain throughout the day. Overnight lows in the mid-50s as skies gradually clear.

In this GOES geocolor visible satellite loop, you can clearly see two centers of circulation – one over the Midwest associated with a maturing mid-latitude cyclone, and one over the Atlantic – Tropical Storm Arthur.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – high pressure continues building, and blocks the northward and northeastward progress of both storms. Temperatures cool into the mid-60s despite more sun with northeasterly onshore winds. Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to have undergone extratropical transition by this point, and potentially strengthened due to baroclinic forcing. The proximity of this storm to the high pressure will produce a tight pressure gradient resulting in stronger winds during the day Tuesday. Overnight around 50ºF.

Wednesday – high pressure remains in place, producing sunny skies. High temperatures still cooler than normal in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 23-27: temperatures appear ready to rebound going into this weekend to above normal levels.

Thursday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s still. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 15, 2020

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We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.

Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Monday – rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather

Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.

  • National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
  • GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
  • GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.