NYC Snowstorm Update – Feb 11, 2014

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UntitledSignificant winter storm is already underway for large parts of the southeast. Snow, and ice accumulation up to 5″+ in some areas before this storm moves in on the northeast.

Still a decent amount of uncertainty as to final track of this storm. If the storm takes a track closer to land, there will be more rain and less snow. If the center of the storm passes south of NYC near what is referred to as the 40°N 70°W benchmark, this will become an all snow or mostly snow event area wide.

With snow to liquid ratios between 10 and 15:1, even a slight deviation could mean dramatically different outcomes. The city has been consistently forecast to be on the cusp of the rain/snow line so final track adjustments are worth keeping an eye. Current NWS forecast thinking is for accumulating snow to begin falling overnight Wed through late Thurs morning. A changeover to rain is currently expected in NYC and coastal areas which would keep overall snowfall totals down. A change back to all snow would occur as temps drop later Thurs as bands of precip wrap around the center of the low departing east.

Temps today will remain chilly in the upper 20s, with sunny conditions. Overnight lows in the teens, and a similar day weather-wise Wed. Overnight lows Wed in the mid 20s, and hi temps Thurs (critically) just above freezing in this forecast. Warmer on Fri w temps nearing 40.

Details:
All reliable models point to a rapidly deepening low pressure center, with central pressure dropping from 992mb to 970mb in this Navy model forecast as the low moves from our area into New England. A mesoscale banding feature also develops, but final placement is uncertain. Right now, hpc is forecasting axis of heaviest snow from NE PA, northeast through NE NJ, western MA and into down east ME. 6-12″ could easily accumulate under this banding feature.

Details:

All reliable models point to a rapidly deepening low pressure center, with central pressure dropping from 992mb to 970mb in this Navy model forecast as the low moves from our area into New England. A mesoscale banding feature also develops, but final placement is uncertain. Right now, hpc is forecasting axis of heaviest snow from NE PA, northeast through NE NJ, western MA and into down east ME. 6-12″ could easily accumulate under this banding feature.

Storm Update NYC – Feb 10, 2014

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NYC weather update (noreaster?): Still considerable variation between different forecast models in the resolution of the storm track for this upcoming coastal low. Model spread of about 100 mi during the critical forecast period. This could mean the difference between a large snowfall for all areas of NYC metro, or a rain/snow/sleet mix for the city & coastal areas, and all snow inland.

With this much uncertainty in the mix, it’s still hard to say with any confidence how much snow will accumulate. Operational forecasts from the NWS are mixing in rain at the moment during the day Thurs. More updates to come.

Temps tomorrow & Wed remain chill, below freezing in the upper 20s, with lows in the teens again in NYC and single digits further inland. Clear and sunny conditions for the most part until the storm rolls in.

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NYC Weather Update – Feb 9, 2014

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Screen shot 2014-02-09 at 4.25

Snow showers expected this evening and overnight as a disturbance moves across the area from the Ohio valley. Not much moisture associated with this storm system, so snow accumulation, if any, should be light and not exceed 2″. Still enough to make for some slippery roads Mon morning.

Pleasant though cold conditions prevail for the start of the week, with sunny skies Mon-Wed, but hi temps only hovering around 30. Overnight temps will dip into the teens in the city, so windchill will be a factor in the morning.

A low pressure system forming off the Gulf Coast is forecast to impact our area Wed night-Thu. Latest model runs have trended towards a colder temperature profile, and a storm track slightly farther offshore. This leads to higher confidence in an all snow event. With 72-84 hrs before the storm, this track could change, bringing in more of a rain/snow mix to coastal areas. Stay tuned.

NYC Weather for Weekend of Feb 7th

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NYC weekend weather: A coastal system moves well south of our area, bringing the first chance of light snow to the area late Sat. Another weak system moves in Sun-Mon and could again bring light snow showers from time to time. Nothing too terrible, if there are accumulating snows, it will be less than 3″. Hi temps around 30.

The beginning of next week sees a very cold airmass move in over the area. High pressure from Canada will bring clear skies, combined with snow on the ground, this will lead to chilly temps with lows in the teens in NYC and single digits N & W. Daytime temps will also only top out in the upper 20s.

Next chance for significant weather occurs Wed-Thu timeframe, as forecast models point to a low pressure system forming in the Gulf States, then tracking NE near our area. As is always the case this far out, it’s hard to predict the intensity and whether this will be a snow or rain event.

Active Weather Pattern to Bring Relief to Drought Stricken West

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Weather Prediction Center’s medium range forecast

 

Over the past couple of months, exceptional drought conditions have developed over large portions of the western UnitedStates caused by prolonged periods without measurable precipitation. It was not long ago that parts of California were literally on fire.

This past week, West Coast folks finally got some relief as rain and snow fell over portions of the Pacific Northwest and California, including the Cascades and the Sierra. As of today, winter storm warnings and advisories are up for much of the same region. The snow will be critical especially for the Central Valley of California. Annual snowmelt from the Sierra feeds the rivers and streams that farmers depend on to grow the abundant veggies and fruits that we get to enjoy across the nation.

This active weather pattern will continue for the west coast, with another area of low pressure forecast to slide southeast from the northeastern Pacific Ocean by Tuesday (see above). However, the long-term drought outlook still calls for persistence or deterioration. Either way, people out on the west coast are probably happy to see any precipitation.