High pressure will be the main story this week, providing plenty of sun and summery weather. A chance for rain comes later with the extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal. The timing of this is rain not entirely certain, but it looks like this will be Thursday for now. Temperatures this week should be ranging slightly above normal with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 80ºF. Just a beautiful day with comfortable temperatures and low humidity. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.
Tuesday – temperatures warm up into the mid-80s with lots of sun as the high pressure center shifts gradually off to the southeast and we see southerly flow take hold. Humidity still overall not that bad, so it shouldn’t feel muggy. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Wednesday – high temperatures back down into the low-80s though clouds could be on the increase. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with rain chances possibly increasing.
GOES visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression Cristobal the morning of June 8, 2020, after it made landfall as a tropical storm this weekend over Louisiana
Thursday– a cold front associated with the extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal could bring some rain and thunderstorms to the area. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
We have a muggy, strormy, and warm start to the weekend with temps in the 80s. Tomorrow, a cold front sweeps through in the afternoon. This will bring relief from the humidity and heat. High pressure builds in going into next week with temperatures back to seasonable ranges in the 70s. We should see an extended period of dry, sunny weather as a result.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy overall with high temperatures in the low-80s. Some shortwaves and surface troughs moving through will serve as the focal point for thunderstorm development. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere today to tap, so storms could produce heavy rainfall, and if enough hit the same locations via training/backbuilding there is potential for localized flooding. Overnight lows in the upper-60s as storm chances continue with fog possible late.
GFS model precipitable water at 8PM today, with values as high as 2.00″ around NYC.
Saturday – clouds diminishing during the day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. A cold front moves through in the afternoon, but will not have the benefit of having as much moisture as today to tap into. Still, an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Downsloping winds behind the cold front should help dry and warm things up. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Sunday – high pressure starts to build and skies remain mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday
Monday– high pressure continues to build and provide us another sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
A stretch of slightly above normal temperatures in the low-80s is in store for us as we kick off the month of June. Temperatures and humidity will pick up noticeably tomorrow with a warm front passing through. Some thunderstorms are possible with the trailing cold front. Weather improves Thursday then rain chances increase again later in the week. The tropics have been active, too, with Tropical Depression Three forming in the Bay of Campeche.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with a chance of showers developing.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday.
Wednesday – rain chances continue into the day Wednesday with a warm front passing through early in the day. Temperatures will warm up into the low-80s in response to southerly flow. Some break in the clouds possible between the warm front and a trailing cold front. Clouds increase again later with this cold front. Some thunderstorms could pop up. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances diminishing and clouds clearing.
Thursday – high pressure briefly builds in with temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances increasing again as another frontal system moves in.
Friday– mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
In the tropics
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to be an active one, and is living up to this forecast so far. A tropical depression formed yesterday in the Bay of Campeche, and if it organizes into a named tropical storm before Thursday, it will break a record for the earliest time for a third named storm to form. For now, this storm poses little risk for the US, but will bring heavy rain to a wide swath of southeastern Mexico and Central America. Later in the forecast period, this storm could track out into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Gulf Coast.
GOES visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression Three in the Bay of Campeche this morning.
While it looked earlier this weekend that this would be a rainy week, it now appears that strong high pressure will keep two storm systems largely at bay. One of these will be the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur that formed this weekend. The tradeoff is that this high of Canadian origin will bring cooler than normal temperatures in the 60s. This pattern breaks up by late this week, yielding warmer temperatures in the 70s by this weekend.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy though no rain expected with high temperatures around 70ºF. Clouds from the two storm systems below will remain throughout the day. Overnight lows in the mid-50s as skies gradually clear.
In this GOES geocolor visible satellite loop, you can clearly see two centers of circulation – one over the Midwest associated with a maturing mid-latitude cyclone, and one over the Atlantic – Tropical Storm Arthur.Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.
Tuesday – high pressure continues building, and blocks the northward and northeastward progress of both storms. Temperatures cool into the mid-60s despite more sun with northeasterly onshore winds. Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to have undergone extratropical transition by this point, and potentially strengthened due to baroclinic forcing. The proximity of this storm to the high pressure will produce a tight pressure gradient resulting in stronger winds during the day Tuesday. Overnight around 50ºF.
Wednesday – high pressure remains in place, producing sunny skies. High temperatures still cooler than normal in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 23-27: temperatures appear ready to rebound going into this weekend to above normal levels.
Thursday– sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s still. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.
Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Monday– rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather
Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.
National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.
