Tag Archives: atlantic tropical weather

NYC Weather Update – Jun 19, 2017

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The weather on Sunday turned out to be a real gift for fathers in the region, yielding a lot more clear skies than anticipated going into the weekend. We could have a rough start this week with possible severe weather, and another chance of rain mid-week. A tropical system forming over the Gulf of Mexico bears watching this coming weekend.

Rest of today – humid and warm with high temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Mostly sunny to start. All the ingredients for possibly severe thunderstorms will be in place this afternoon and evening. A flash flood watch is in effect for most of the area west of Long Island. The Storm Prediction Center has placed some of the region west of the Hudson River under an enhanced risk of experiencing severe weather with the city itself in a slight risk area.

A vigorous cold front will move east towards NYC today. As we can feel, the airmass ahead of the front is saturated and warm. The more sun we get before the front approaches, the greater the destabilization in the atmosphere. The cold front will line up with the flow of the jet stream, which will favor line segments and training of storm cells repeatedly hitting the same areas (flash flood warning is in place because of this).

Timing of the leading edge of the storms appears to be around 5pm. Any storms or substantial cloud cover ahead of this would decrease the severe potential. Primary threat along this leading line of storms would be damaging wind gusts with a small chance for hail and a couple isolated tornadoes.

Behind this leading line of storms, we could see a slight break around 8PM, but then more rounds of moderate to heavy rains that could lead to flash flooding.

Tuesday – severe weather and rain should dissipate fairly quickly after midnight. Decreasing clouds in the wake of the cold front though high temperatures remain similar to today due to the influence of southwest winds.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. A chance for rain in the afternoon, but much milder and less widespread than today.

Thursday – mostly sunny again, with highs in the low-80s again.

 

Potential Tropical Storm in the Gulf

Two possible tropical systems are churning, one east of the Windward Islands and the other crossing over the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico. The latter system may have a tangible impact in terms of bringing tropical moisture to the area this coming weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYC Weather Update – May 6, 2015

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A downright summer-like stretch of weather that started this week will get mirrored again towards the end of this week and going into next week. After clearing out clouds today, the remainder of this week should see dry and sunnier weather with highs in the mid-upper 70s. This weekend, we are looking at the possibility of temperatures near 80, nearly 15º above normal. We also have what could turn into the 2015 season’s first tropical depression/storm churning up off the coast of Florida now.

Rest of today – a very slow-moving, largely stationary front pushed through last night, but is still sitting in our vicinity. Along this front, remnants of more organized convective activity will be able to slide east during this afternoon and evening. While the chances are not high, there could still be an occasional shower during the latter half of today, high temperatures will be somewhat subdued around 70 with the clouds in place.

Thursday – clouds will clear out tomorrow and we should have a sunny day with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Friday – a repeat of Thursday, with mostly sunny skies and highs again in the mid-70s.

Saturday – increasing cloud cover, but should still be a pleasant day with temperatures in the upper 70s.

Sandwiched between rain to our south and to our west, but our weather should still remain dry this weekend.
Sandwiched between rain to our south and to our west, but our weather should still remain dry this weekend.

Sunday – warm and pleasant with a high near 80.

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Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for next week – still looks like we’ll be getting warmer than normal temps

First Tropical System of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

As I write this, a low pressure system is building up steadily off the east coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center puts the odds of this system organizing sufficiently to become the first named tropical depression, subtropical, or tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Even if this storm does become the first named tropical system, it is unlikely to do much damage as it will have very little time over open water to gain strength before it is forecast to make landfall over the Carolinas later. The most noticeable impact from this storm would be the rain it generates.

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