Tag Archives: backdoor cold front

NYC Weather Update – June 14, 2021

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A wet, cool start to the week with an early round of thunderstorms that moved through this morning. Another is likely to follow early in the overnight tonight. Lingering showers Tuesday with a weak surface low in the vicinity. Highs below normal in mid-70s Monday, then warming up to average by midweek with sunny weather returning. The warm up continues into the weekend – Father’s Day looking good weather-wise so far!

Rest of today – high temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies. A second frontal boundary will push towards the area later this evening, with showers and thunderstorms again possible into the early overnight hours. Temperatures falling into the mid-60s.

HRRR simulated 1-kim radar valid for 9:30 PM tonight. An area of moderate to heavy rain accompanying some thunderstorms is depicted.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy still with a chance for showers early. High temperature near 80ºF. Overnight lows in the low-60s with clearing skies.

Wednesday – high pressure builds in behind what should be a dry cold frontal passage and resulting in a mostly sunny day with high temperatures around 80ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-50s given that the high pressure will usher in cooler, drier Canadian air.

GFS 500 mb temperature, height, and wind for Thursday at 8 PM. Heights will be building with a longwave trough exiting to our east. The result will be pleasant, sunny weather.

Thursday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Pleasant conditions with the high pressure above still in control. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weather Update – June 8, 2021

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Upper-80s heat and humidity will spawn scattered heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. Low vertical wind shear and weak overall steering currents mean the primary threat from these storms will be possible localized flooding. A backdoor cold front drops in from Canada Wednesday night leading to much cooler temperatures Thursday in the low-80s. Rain and even cooler temperatures arrive Fri when we may only just hit 70ºF.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s, and a muggy feel to the day. Scattered thunderstorms bring the potential for heavy downpours later in the evening, perhaps starting around 7PM. Overnight lows in the low-70s as showers roll through early.

HRRR simulated 1-kim radar valid for 8 PM tonight. An area of moderate to heavy rain accompanying some thunderstorms is depicted.

Wednesday – high temperatures again in the upper-80s. Mostly cloudy with yet another shot for some heavy downpours especially later in the afternoon as a cold front draws nearer. Overnight lows around 70ºF as a backdoor cold front eventually pushes through.

Thursday – with the backdoor cold front already south of us by Tuesday morning, high temperatures should cool off to around 80ºF. Chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows around 60ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for valid 12 AM Thursday. A backdoor cold front is forecast to drop in from the north and east. The result will be a much cooler air mass than we’ve seen the beginning of this week.

Friday – much cooler with persistent clouds and showers possible through the day, high temperatures perhaps only around 70ºF. Overnight lows around 60ºF with rain chances continuing.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 9, 2021

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A surge of warmth is coming today and late this week, with highs near or in the 60s. This will be punctuated briefly by a cooler day Wed in the mid-50s, which is still almost 10ºF above normal this time of year. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts because there will be a colder pattern next couple of weeks, starting as soon as this weekend.

Rest of today – warm and sunny with high temperatures around 60ºF. Overnight lows drop to around 40ºF with a backdoor cold front moving through overnight.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Tuesday. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move through, leading to a slightly cooler day tomorrow before temperatures rebound again late in the week.

Wednesday – the backdoor cold front’s primary impact will be to make Wednesday cooler, in the mid-50s, with a good amount of sun. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s.

Thursday – this is when the warmth really surges with the backdoor cold front returning northeast as a warm front. Behind this, south winds will lead to temperatures rising well into the mid-60s. The only cap on temperatures will be possible partly sunny cloud cover. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

  • Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook for 3/14-3/18. Much of the country is likely to see colder than normal temperatures.
  • Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day temperature outlook for 3/18-3/22. The cool conditions look set to continue.

Friday – a cold front approaches the region from the west. Ahead of this, temperatures remain warm in the mid-60s. A chance of rain will accompany the passage of the front. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows dropping into the mid-40s. Temperatures will continue to drop through weekend.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 5, 2020

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A hot, humid, and stormy start to the week with highs in the low-90s. A backdoor cold front moves through, granting a reprieve from heat mid-week with highs cooling off to the mid-80s Tuesday. The heat comes back after this. Later this week, and into the weekend, a storm with possible tropical characteristics could bring heavy rain to the region.

Rest of today – sunny to start with highs quickly climbing into the low-90s. Clouds increase later this afternoon. A shortwave trough will spark the potential for some showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, around 4PM. These storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds. Overnight lows in the low-70s with rain chances quickly dying off.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Monday.

Tuesday – a backdoor cold front will push through overnight. The onshore flow from the northeast behind this front should result in mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms could still impact the area in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – the backdoor cold front will return north as a warm front Wednesday. Temperatures will remain stable with high temperatures in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Thursday – high temperatures rebound into the upper-80s and low-90s possibly with fewer clouds as high pressure briefly builds in. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Looking towards the end of the week, we’ll be monitoring the progress of a low pressure center that the National Hurricane Center has identified as having the potential to develop tropical characteristics. This storm could bring some heavy rain this weekend.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 25, 2018

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Memorial Day weekend in NYC kicks off with two incredible days of summer-like weather with excellent conditions for all outdoor activities, including hitting the beach. The weather shifts markedly for Sunday and Monday as a cooler air mass takes hold of the region behind a backdoor cold front. Temperature could be 15ºF-20ºF cooler between the first and second half of the weekend. Rain will accompany the passage of the backdoor cold front Saturday night into Sunday. No day will be a washout though.

Rest of today – sunny with breezy southwesterly winds bringing in warm air. Temperatures should soar into the upper-80s with a few spots reaching the 90ºF mark outside of coastal areas where sea breezes should set up fairly quickly.

Saturday – warm again with high temperatures likely reaching to around 90ºF away from south-facing shores with the influence of sea breezes. Late in the day towards the evening hours, a backdoor cold front will be approaching from the north. Ahead of this frontal boundary, clouds will increase throughout the day, and some pop up showers and thunderstorms could occur. Sea breezes may help initiate some of these storms closer to the coast. Given that there will be some instability in the atmosphere, a couple of these storms could approach severe limits, with strong wind gusts and heavy rain.


Sunday – overnight from Saturday into Sunday is when the bulk of the rain associated with this cold front will fall. There could be a scattered thunderstorm overnight. Rain will impact the beginning of the day Sunday, but conditions should improve later in the afternoon. Behind the backdoor front, easterly onshore winds will predominate, leading to much cooler temperatures only in the low-70s under cloudy skies.

Monday (Memorial Day) – cool with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.

 

First Tropical Storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Although our weekend weather won’t be ideal, we are lucky not to have to plan for anything worse. Residents of the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida Panhandle will need to contend with the arrival of the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Subtropical Storm Alberto.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 7, 2016

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The end of this week will likely see the first official heat wave of the year, typically defined as 3 or more days with 90ºF+ temperatures. The hot and humid weather comes to a close this weekend as a backdoor cold front brings relief by Sunday. A couple rounds of active weather could crop up this afternoon and again Friday night.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with a high in the low-90s. Periods of clouds and sun with increasing clouds this afternoon. The area is under a flash flood watch due to the impending onset of showers and thunderstorms capable of generating heavy downpours of 1-2″/hour. You can see from the satellite image below that discrete, pulse type storms are already building. Coverage of these storms will increase and they will encounter conditions conducive for strengthening, with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, no capping to speak of, and lots of sunshine leading to MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/Kg. Storms should die down by later this evening. If you’re out and about, carry an umbrella because you may get dumped on.

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Friday – any relief from the heat from the storms today will unfortunately be short-lived. Temperatures Friday are expected to rise into the low-90s once again under mostly sunny skies. Friday night, as a backdoor cold front the northeast (so-called because it moves from northeast to southwest, the opposite of most cold fronts in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere), we could see another round of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain across the area.

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Saturday – with the backdoor cold front slowly progressing through the area during the day, some potential exists for scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures will be more comfortable in the mid-80s with mostly sunny skies otherwise.

Sunday – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-80s. Best day of the weekend!