Tag Archives: backdoor front

NYC Weather Update – Mar 23, 2020

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It’ll be a cloudy start to the week with possible thunderstorms later today. Rain chances continue Tuesday with a surface low in our vicinity. Once this low moves off, our weather calms Wednesday. High pressure builds in Thursday and should bring us mostly sunny skies. High temperatures start off slightly below normal in low-50s with clouds and rain, and will warm into normal ranges in the mid-50s later on.

Rest of today – energy from an upper level low will support development of a surface low around its base. Surface troughs from this low may touch off some isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon with the aid of a cold pool aloft (increasing lapse rates and increasing instability). Best chances for this activity will be north of the city. High temperatures in the mid-50s with clouds and rain. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

  • GOES East Geo Color satellite image. You can see the large area of cloudiness associated with the upper level low
  • High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar showing the possibility for some convective activity associated with a cold pool later this afternoon around 5PM

Tuesday – this surface low will help move a backdoor cold front through, bringing cool, damp, northeasterly flow to the area. With this air mass, we’re only expecting high temperatures in the upper-40s. Rain chances continue with the low in our vicinity. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

Wednesday – the low affecting our weather to open the week finally moves off. We’ll get a dry day with diminishing clouds and high temperatures around 50°F. Overnight lows around 40°F.

Thursday – high pressure builds and brings us a mostly sunny day. High temperatures rebound into the mid-50s in response. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 15, 2019

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The same storm system that impacted the Deep South this weekend with severe weather, including several tornadoes that caused fatalities, swept through the area overnight. Some severe wind gusts were reported, and area transit networks experienced some delays due to storm-related damage. As this storm departs east, it will continue deepening, resulting in strong winds the remainder of today. Another storm system is forecast to move in to the region Thursday and going into the weekend. Temperatures during the week are expected to be mostly around normal for this time of year.

Rest of today – windy, with decreasing cloud cover. Steady west winds between 20-30 mph later in the day. This will help bring colder air into the area, with highs already peaking this morning in the low-60s then dropping back to the mid-50s by this afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – sunny day, with winds calming and seasonable high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s and mostly cloudy.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – increasing clouds as a backdoor cold front works its way through. High temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight, mostly cloudy with lows in the mid-40s.

Thursday – chance of rain as a low tracks slowly from the Plains to the Great Lakes. East of this low, a slow moving warm front could touch off showers during the day and overnight Thursday. High temperatures around 60°F, overnight lows quite mild due to the influence of the approaching warm front and warm advection, in the low-50s.

GFS model output for 7AM Thursday

NYC Weather Update – Sep 4, 2018

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A brief break in the heat over the weekend has led back into another warm spell to begin this week. This latest blast of heat will be short-lived as a backdoor cold front sweeps through tomorrow, followed by another, stronger cold front later this week. Temperatures for the upcoming weekend will once again be comfortable, seasonable to below average. In the tropics, things are starting to get busy with tropical storms Florence and Gordon active and another tropical wave poised to become a tropical cyclone off the coast of Africa. Gordon will make landfall overnight on the Gulf Coast east of New Orleans.

Rest of today – hot and humid with temperatures in the low-90s, mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – cooler, though still warm with high temperatures in the upper-80s and partly sunny skies. A backdoor cold front will bring cooling onshore southeasterly breezes that help keep a lid on temperatures.

Thursday – temperatures rise back a couple degrees into the low-90s ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. The warm air ahead of the cold front could help set the stage for a few scattered strong thunderstorms as the front passes through.

Friday – temperatures cool off quite a bit into the low-80s under mostly cloudy skies. Chance of showers during the day with the cold front lingering south of the area.

Tropics Heating Up

We have 2 active tropical cyclones (Florence, Gordon), and another incipient one in the Atlantic Basin. Tropical Storm Gordon could strengthen into a hurricane before landfall on the Gulf Coast between Mississippi/Alabama overnight into Wednesday. Heavy rain could induce flash flooding in southern portions of these states. The immediate coastline will be at risk of storm surge flooding. Florence doesn’t pose an threat to land. The disturbance shown below that’s furthest east is a tropical wave that’s just emerged off the coast of Africa. This is worth watching as it has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone and its eventual track could pose a threat to portions of the Lesser Antilles.

NYC Weather Update – May 28, 2018

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This week will see mostly average temperatures, with the exception of a very warm day tomorrow. Later on in the week, remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will have an impact on our sensible weather, bringing on an extended period of unsettled weather that carries into next weekend.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-70s with decreasing clouds. If clouds break up sooner in the afternoon, we could see warmer temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a warm front will move through overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures will be significantly warmer with mostly sunny skies behind the frontal boundary, with high temperatures close to 90°F in the city away from south-facing shores.

Wednesday – mostly sunny still, with high temperatures falling back to normal levels in the mid-70s as a backdoor cold front moves through. This will cause a shift in winds to the east, bringing cooler, marine air onshore.

Thursday – increasing clouds with chances for rain late in the day, high temperatures holding in the mid-70s.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 25, 2018

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Memorial Day weekend in NYC kicks off with two incredible days of summer-like weather with excellent conditions for all outdoor activities, including hitting the beach. The weather shifts markedly for Sunday and Monday as a cooler air mass takes hold of the region behind a backdoor cold front. Temperature could be 15ºF-20ºF cooler between the first and second half of the weekend. Rain will accompany the passage of the backdoor cold front Saturday night into Sunday. No day will be a washout though.

Rest of today – sunny with breezy southwesterly winds bringing in warm air. Temperatures should soar into the upper-80s with a few spots reaching the 90ºF mark outside of coastal areas where sea breezes should set up fairly quickly.

Saturday – warm again with high temperatures likely reaching to around 90ºF away from south-facing shores with the influence of sea breezes. Late in the day towards the evening hours, a backdoor cold front will be approaching from the north. Ahead of this frontal boundary, clouds will increase throughout the day, and some pop up showers and thunderstorms could occur. Sea breezes may help initiate some of these storms closer to the coast. Given that there will be some instability in the atmosphere, a couple of these storms could approach severe limits, with strong wind gusts and heavy rain.


Sunday – overnight from Saturday into Sunday is when the bulk of the rain associated with this cold front will fall. There could be a scattered thunderstorm overnight. Rain will impact the beginning of the day Sunday, but conditions should improve later in the afternoon. Behind the backdoor front, easterly onshore winds will predominate, leading to much cooler temperatures only in the low-70s under cloudy skies.

Monday (Memorial Day) – cool with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-70s.

 

First Tropical Storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Although our weekend weather won’t be ideal, we are lucky not to have to plan for anything worse. Residents of the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida Panhandle will need to contend with the arrival of the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Subtropical Storm Alberto.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 13, 2018

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Despite it being Friday the 13th, if you were looking for some spring weather, this happens to be your lucky day. With our region in the warm sector of a large storm system far off to the south and west (which will bring severe weather to parts of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Missouri Valleys today), warm air will be surging from the south. This will give us a great start to the weekend, though things will shift dramatically by Sunday as a frontal boundary dances back and forth across the area. Wild temperature swings of 30ºF are possible with a much cooler day Sunday.

Rest of today – despite the cloud cover now, temperatures should still reach well into the mid-70s. Any breaks in the clouds would likely result in highs hitting 80ºF. There will also be a steady southerly breeze with gusts up to 20 mph.

Saturday – temperatures remain quite warm with highs again in the mid-70s. The warm front that swept north through the region last night, which brought the warm air along with it, will retreat south of the area as a backdoor cold front late during the day Saturday. Expect temperatures to drop rapidly after this backdoor cold front passes through – between 10-15ºF within as little as an hour. Increasing clouds will accompany this frontal passage.

Sunday – significantly cooler with easterly onshore winds in the wake of the backdoor cold front passage. This onshore flow off the still cold waters of the Atlantic will result in high temperatures only in the upper-40s. Periods of rain will also occur, especially later in the day with mostly cloudy skies otherwise.

Monday – the backdoor cold front will stall just south of us, then push back north as a warm front again. Temperatures will rise back towards around 60ºF prior to the arrival of a stronger cold front. This will be accompanied by steadier rain and even a couple rumbles of thunder are possible.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 19, 2018

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The relatively minor cold spell we’ve had this week transitions into a dramatic warm up going into the weekend. Above normal temperatures will persist into the beginning of next week before moderating later in the week. We have a chance for a soaking rain beginning Monday night going into Tuesday.

Rest of today – partly sunny with some gradual clearing later. High temperatures in the upper-30s to around 40ºF.

Saturday – much warmer due to a dramatic shift in the jet stream with high temperatures around 50ºF with warm air rushing in from the south and west ahead of a frontal boundary. The polar jet that’s brought a return of cold air to the region will be pushed considerably further north of us with high pressure building to the southwest. This is a setup favoring much warmer air flowing in from the south and west.

Sunday – a backdoor cold front will sweep in from the northeast, bringing cooler, more moist air from the Canadian Maritimes, leading to high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly sunny.

Monday – cloudy with a high in the low-40s and increasing chances of rain as a vigorous low pressure system approaches from the southwest.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 9, 2017

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After a span of several weeks with minimal rainfall, we’re running into a week that will be defined by two low pressure systems and unsettled, rainy weather. Temperature will finally cool off from the summer-like warmth we’ve recently enjoyed to more seasonable, fall temperatures.

Rest of today – cloudy, periods of rain, some heavy at times. High temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Breezy with winds 15-20 mph. Remnants of Nate are passing through the area today, bringing tropical moisture and rain along with a deepening pressure gradient and the windy conditions.

Tuesday – best day of the first half of this week, mostly sunny with temperatures in the low-80s in the wake of the storm system passing today.

Wednesday – a backdoor cold front pushes through overnight into Wednesday. Winds will shift to the easterly direction and onshore with high pressure to the north. The result will be much cooler temperatures in the upper-60s or just about 70°F, which is about normal for this time of year. There will also be a chance for rain and increasingly cloudy skies.

Thursday – similar feel to Wednesday with clouds, chances for rain, easterly winds, but cooler with temperatures in the mid-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 16, 2015

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This week will feature a mixed bag of warm and cool temperatures, along with a bout of moderate-heavy rain and even a couple thunderstorms associated with a cold front passing through the region on Thursday into Friday. Timing of this frontal passage isn’t 100% certain at this point. However, it is clear that behind this front, temperatures will take a dive into more seasonable ranges in the upper-40s to around 50ºF by this weekend.

Rest of today – clear skies with a high temperature well into the mid-60s. This is due in part to high pressure to our south that’s allowing for warm air to flow in from the west.

Tuesday – quite a different story in terms of temperatures. A backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, leading to a shift in winds to the northeast by tomorrow. This wind pattern favors cooler temperatures as the winds circulating clockwise around a high pressure center over the Canadian Maritimes bring in a cooler airmass. High temperatures will struggle to hit 50ºF in this atmosphere.

noaad2

Wednesday – temperatures quickly rebound as winds switch back to the south-southeast ahead of a cold front which will be passing through the area sometime late Thursday. Cloud should increase during the day, but enough sun should still get through to get temperatures back to near 60.

Thursday – a mostly cloudy day with periods of rain throughout looks to be the headline for Thursday. Temperatures should warm up nicely into the mid-60s with warm, moist air entering the area from the south ahead of the actual cold front. Periods of heavy rain at times could be accompanied by an occasional thunderstorm especially as the cold front nears.gfs_namer_075_1000_850_thick 2

 

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Aug 31, 2015

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A heat wave is on for the end of August, and will persist into the beginning of September. A hot, humid tropical airmass will be firmly in control through out the early and mid-week period before we get some heat relief late in the week. The hot temperatures and a lack of widespread precipitation may allow drought to redevelop in some parts of the region, and worsen over Long Island.

Rest of today – possibly the hottest day of the week, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s inland despite some cloud cover and uncomfortable humidity levels.

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Tuesday – a weak backdoor cold front pushes through overnight, although no precipitation is anticipated due to insufficient instability. Tomorrow should see high temperatures in the lower 90s again under sunnier skies.

Wednesday – the heat wave continues with temperatures yet again expected to top out in the low-mid 90s with sunny skies. There could be a few isolated pop-up showers/thunderstorms late in the day with very limited coverage.

Thursday – expected to be the last day of the heat wave, sunny with high temperatures at or above 90.