Tag Archives: climate

NYC Weather Update – Mar 9, 2021

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A surge of warmth is coming today and late this week, with highs near or in the 60s. This will be punctuated briefly by a cooler day Wed in the mid-50s, which is still almost 10ºF above normal this time of year. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts because there will be a colder pattern next couple of weeks, starting as soon as this weekend.

Rest of today – warm and sunny with high temperatures around 60ºF. Overnight lows drop to around 40ºF with a backdoor cold front moving through overnight.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Tuesday. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move through, leading to a slightly cooler day tomorrow before temperatures rebound again late in the week.

Wednesday – the backdoor cold front’s primary impact will be to make Wednesday cooler, in the mid-50s, with a good amount of sun. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s.

Thursday – this is when the warmth really surges with the backdoor cold front returning northeast as a warm front. Behind this, south winds will lead to temperatures rising well into the mid-60s. The only cap on temperatures will be possible partly sunny cloud cover. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

  • Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook for 3/14-3/18. Much of the country is likely to see colder than normal temperatures.
  • Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day temperature outlook for 3/18-3/22. The cool conditions look set to continue.

Friday – a cold front approaches the region from the west. Ahead of this, temperatures remain warm in the mid-60s. A chance of rain will accompany the passage of the front. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows dropping into the mid-40s. Temperatures will continue to drop through weekend.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 13, 2020

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The record breaking warmth of last weekend and this past week will feel a world away this weekend with temperatures dropping to seasonable levels mostly in the 50s. Rain Friday will keep a damper on temperatures. Otherwise sunny conditions will be punctuated by a passing cold front Sunday bringing another round of rain. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the front around 60ºF before falling back into the low-50s. Colder air is in store next week with temperatures in the 40s.

Rest of today – cloudy with light rain possible as a wave of low pressure moves along a frontal boundary offshore. Highs in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s with skies clearing as high pressure builds in.

Saturday – with high pressure in control, expect sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows again in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday, showing a robust storm over the Great Lakes that will bring a cold front through our region later Sunday.

Sunday – a vigorous frontal system moves in from the west bringing rain chances later in the day and into the overnight hours. Southerly flow ahead of the front will bring temperatures up to around 60ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with rain clearing out.

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day temperature outlook for November 18-22, showing a decent chance for below average temperatures over the Northeast.

Monday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows around 40ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 6, 2020

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The warm weather we’ve seen this week carries right into the weekend with highs in the upper-60s to 70ºF, which is about 10ºF+ above average for this time of year. Slow moving high pressure dominates our sensible weather this weekend and into next week. Temperatures 8-10ºF above normal are forecast into mid-week next week. No significant rain chances either with this high pressure locked in through the weekend.

Rest of today – early low clouds and fog have been dissipating. Mostly sunny skies expected with high temperatures responding, climbing into the upper-60s and possibly topping 70ºF. Overnight lows drop back to the low-50s with a chance of fog developing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday, showing high pressure southwest of NYC. This will be responsible for bringing us some spectacular weather this weekend.

Saturday – excellent weather continues with temperatures once again warming into the upper-60s and low-70s with plenty of sun. Overnight lows again in the low-50s.

Sunday – basically a repeat of Saturday, more sun, more warm temperatures in the upper-60s and low-70s. Overnight lows likewise low-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday, showing high pressure anchored over the Northeast.

Monday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid to upper-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 1, 2020

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April ended with another stormy week with plenty of rain. May starts of grey Friday, followed by a spectacular day Saturday. Rain enters the picture again Sunday. Behind this next storm system, things will cool off again. This will lead temperatures to continue their cool trend throughout most of next week. During this period high temperatures will range at least 5ºF below the upper-60s that are normal for this time of the year.

Rest of today – the slow moving storm that began impacting us yesterday continues to influence weather today. Scattered showers wrapping around the backside of the low responsible for this storm could still occur. Temperatures should generally be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-50s as the storm finally exits.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this storm, bringing the best day of the frorecast period with high temperatures expected to top out around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Sunday – just like last weekend, the sunny, dry weather barely lasts before the next storm moves in. This will be a weaker, and faster moving storm so rain should be on the lighter side. Currently expecting most of the day Sunday to be dry with clouds building and high temperatures still warm in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Monday – once this low clears our region, winds shift to the north and a cooler air mass works its way in. Skies clear with temperatures falling back the low-60s. Overnight lows only in the upper-40s. This cool trend looks set to continue for the duration of next week. Though after a week with high temperatures in the 50s, the low-60s looks pretty good.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 6-10. Below average temperatures are indicated as very likely for much of the Eastern US
  • This temperature trend is borne out in the GFS models 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies. This chart is valid for 8AM Tuesday

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 24, 2020

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Two coastal lows bring will rain today and Sunday. Saturday ends up being a nice day in between with some high pressure building briefly. The second coastal storm coming on Sunday drags into Monday bringing rain and cool temperatures. Throughout this period, temperatures will range at least 5ºF below normal. This below normal temperature trend, largely a continuation of this week, looks set to continue well into next week.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-50s with cloudy conditions and periods of steady rain off and on for much of the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain winding down and clouds clearing.

Saturday – sunny skies and high pressure should allow temperatures to climb to about 60ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – unfortunately, the dry weather doesn’t last as a second storm moves in for Sunday, bringing yet more rain and cool, cloudy weather. High temperatures topping out only in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Monday – high temperatures still suppressed in the low-50s as this second storm lifts to the east. Overnight lows in the low-40s. Going into next week, temperature will stay below normal, anywhere between 5-10ºF. Later in the week, it appears a potent, closed 500 mb low will be the culprit for keeping temperatures down (and bringing yet more rain to us)

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Apr 29-May 3, showing below average temperatures continuing to affect much of the northeastern quadrant of the US
  • GFS 500 mb temperature, height and winds for 2AM Thursday, Apr 30. A closed 500 mb low is forecast to move over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario – this will be partly responsible for cooler than normal temperatures.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 18, 2019

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Spells of rain will bookend what should otherwise be a pleasant week of mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend slightly below normal for this time of year, however, we will avoid any dramatic swings in temperature. Record cold will not be on the table either. All in all, it should shape up to be a fairly typical mid-November week.

Rest of today – windy, mostly cloudy, with chances for scattered rain showers as a slow moving coastal low continues spinning off of the coast of New England. High temperatures should only hit the mid-40s with the cooling influence of clouds and persistently northeasterly flow. Chances for rain continue overnight with lows dropping into the upper-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Monday

Tuesday – rain chances should finally end as the coastal low affecting us finally pulls away to the northeast. Clouds should break up leading to a decent day with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows should be around 40°F.

Wednesday – partly sunny with highs around 50°F. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

GFS 500 mb height, relative vorticity for 1PM Friday. We can see a distinct shortwave trough approaching from the west. Enhanced vorticity around the base of this trough should help touch of some precipitation at the surface as a cold front sweeps through.

Thursday – best day of the week with high pressure briefly building in. High temperatures again around 50°F, with overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 12, 2019

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Record setting cold is on the way mid-week. Overnight lows in the mid-20s and daytime highs hovering around freezing Wednesday will make this week feel more like January than mid-November. Luckily, this bitter cold snap will be short-lived, with temperatures rebounding back into the 50s by the end of the week.

Rest of today – temperatures will be falling through the 40s during the day. Precipitation should end as an Arctic front pushes through. Temperatures will continue dropping into the 30s throughout the evening and bottoming out in the mid-20s. Precipitation should end before it gets cold enough to produce snow. Winds will become stiff with the parent low strengthening and a tight pressure gradient forming between that and an incoming high pressure center.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Wednesday

Wednesday – sunny with record low high temperatures in the low-30s as a frigid Arctic air mass takes hold. Overnight lows continue to be cold, in the upper-20s.

Thursday – temperatures start to rebound into the upper-40s as a warm front approaches and we enter the warm sector of the next storm. Return flow around the western edge of the high pressure exiting east will also assist in helping move some warmer air in. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

  • GFS model 500 mb temperature, height and wind at 1AM Wednesday, note the closed 500 mb low and the strong troughing over much of the Northeastern US
  • By 7PM Friday, the 500 mb trough is forecast to have flattened out considerably, allowing for temperatures at this level and at the surface to rebound

Friday – the warm-up continues, with temperatures reaching back into seasonable levels in the low-50s. A moisture starved cold front passes through late bringing overnight lows back down to the low-30s

NYC Weather Update – Nov 5, 2019

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The week after we set our clocks back for the fall will see a shift to the coldest temperatures we’ve yet seen this season. High temperatures will trend from normal levels to slightly below normal (upper-50s to low-50s) before plummeting into the 40s following the passage of a low pressure center and cold front. The chilly air following this system will begin a longer term trend of below average temperatures going into the middle of the month at least.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with a chance of showers as a cold front passes through later in the day. High temperatures on the mild side in the low-60s as we’ll be in the warm sector of the parent low bringing the cold front through. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction center surface forecast for 7AM Wednesday

Wednesday – sunny with cooler high temperatures in the low-50s. High pressure depicted above will keep things nice and dry. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Thursday – starting off mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. A storm system will approach later in the day and bring the chance for rain at first, with rain and snow mixing possible overnight as lows drop into the mid-30s.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature anomaly forecast for November 10-14
  • An anomalously low area of 500 mb heights will produce cold temperatures at the surface

Friday – the real cold sets in with high temperatures only in the low-40s. Rain/snow should taper off early giving way to sunny conditions, with winds picking up due to the low bringing this weather strengthening as it continues moving off to the northeast. Overnight lows are shaping up to be below freezing, near 30°F with winds forecast to die down and skies clearing allowing for some good radiational cooling.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 23, 2018

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Now that we have a record-breaking, snow-making, spring nor’easter behind us, we can finally start to look ahead to better, calmer weather. This weekend may not be entirely free of precipitation and will be colder than average, but it will still be a welcome reprieve. Looking ahead, there’s some chance we could see a true taste of spring with temps nearing the 60s late next week!

Rest of today – decreasing clouds as an area of high pressure starts to make its presence felt. High temperatures in the mid-40s.

Saturday – sunny, high temperatures in the mid-40s but with a chilly feel due to some northerly winds.

Sunday – high pressure breaks down and a storm system passes to our south but results in increased clouds. Temperatures in the low-40s as a result. Small chance for rain/snow possible due to the influence of the storm that hit us this week still stuck spinning out in the western North Atlantic.

Monday – high pressure builds again, yielding a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

 

Warmer than Average April?

It’s been a rollercoaster temperature-wise in the Northeast to say the least over the last 3 months. January was bitterly cold and much below average. Then we experienced some record-breaking warmth in February, only to revert back to a colder than average month of March. Looking ahead, there are some signs from the Climate Prediction Center that we could experience a warmer than average April!

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 7, 2017

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After a week of alternating days of wet and windy weather, we look ahead to improving conditions over the weekend and leading into next week. Sunny days with temperatures averaging anywhere between 5-10ºF above normal are right around the corner.

Rest of today – one of the last days of cooler than average weather we’ll see for a while. Temperatures hover in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies. There is a chance for a passing shower with instability and moisture in the atmosphere from the backside of yesterday’s storm exiting east.

Saturday – skies clear, though temperatures remain below normal with high temperatures in the low-50s.

Sunday – a warm up begins as high pressure builds to the south of us. Clockwise flow around this high pressure brings warmer air in from the southwest. Temperatures warm into the mid-60s with sunny skies.

Monday – superb conditions for the Yankee’s home opener with sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper-60s to about 70ºF and sunny skies.

 

 

Drought Busted

The many rounds of rain we’ve seen over the course of the last couple weeks have finally busted the remaining drought conditions in the city itself and Long Island, just in time for the start of the growing season. Moderate drought still persists further north in the Hudson Valley.