Tag Archives: climate

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 3, 2016

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As we approach spring, the weather has a tendency to swing wildly between different extremes. We start this forecast period off with accumulating snow, while by this time next week, we are expecting temperatures in the 60s!

Rest of today – mostly sunny, but cool with below average high temperatures in the upper-30s.

Friday – overnight tonight into the first half of Friday, our area will get impacted by the northern fringe of what is expected to be a powerful coastal storm. Lucky for us, high pressure north of us is sufficiently strong so as to prevent this storm from hitting us dead one, which would certainly result in a more significant snowfall event. In this case, we are expecting to see snow in the range of 1-2″ across the city and Long Island with lesser amounts further north and west. Temperatures will remain colder than nom

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Saturday – high pressure takes control with skies clearing and temperatures in the low-40s. Another slight chance for snow Saturday night accompanies the passage of a clipper system.

Sunday – partly sunny with highs around average in the low-mid 40s.

Monday – temperatures start to warm up as the high pressure moves offshore to the east and warm, southwesterly return flow circles clockwise around its western periphery. High temperatures in the low-50s.

Warming Trend Ahead

With the aforementioned high pressure center offshore in the Atlantic early to mid-week next week, we’ll see increasingly warm temperatures, up into the 60s by Wednesday. This warm trend looks to continue over the course of the next week, with a brief cooldown late next week before what should be a warm weekend next week.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 4, 2016

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We have had a very warm start to the month of February, and it sure does feel like the groundhogs were right that there will an early spring. Even if that is to be the case, we are still technically in the depths of winter, and the weather over the next couple of weeks will remind us of that fact. The end of this week and this weekend will be relatively quiet on the weather front, but looking ahead at the beginning of next week, there is a potential for a coastal storm that could bring us some more snow.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun, warm but with temperatures dropping through the 50s during the day.

Friday – the cold front that passed through yesterday will stall out at sea, but close enough to us that another impulse of low pressure moving along it could bring some light snow to southern and eastern portions of the NYC region. Light, wet, accumulating snow is possible for NYC and Long Island. Depending on the storm track, some areas of eastern Long Island could pick up 3″, while areas west closer to the city see a coating to an inch overnight. During the day Friday, temperatures will cool off noticeably into the low-40s and the winds will pick up as skies clear.

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Saturday – a nice day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-mid 40s.

Sunday – essentially a clone of Saturday in terms of sensible weather, mostly sunny, highs in the low-mid 40s.

 

Cooling Off the Next Couple Weeks

It is technically supposed to be the coldest stretch of the year climatologically, so it makes sense that there should be some cooler temperatures coming. In fact, Climate Prediction Center does have normal to below normal temperatures (normal would be in the mid-30s) for the area the next couple of weeks.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 04, 2015

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A quite and mild weekend is in store for the region with high pressure in control of the weather throughout the period. Temperatures should climb steadily as winds shift and persist from the southwest. We could see high temperatures near 60ºF by Sunday.

Rest of today – clear to mostly sunny, with highs around 50.

Saturday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-50s.

Sunday – milder, and sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.

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Monday – clouds look to be increasing on Monday with a storm system approaching from the south expected to pass on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler in the mid-50s.

Seasonal Climate Outlooks

As we are entering into the winter, it’s worth looking ahead at what the seasonal climate out looks are from the Climate Prediction Center.

Drought conditions are expected to improve over many areas of the nation, and the persistent moderate drought in our region is forecast to end.

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Temperature and precipitation are forecast to be above normal for the region. As you’ll note from the images below, some fairly significant deviations from normal are expected across large portions of the United States, due in large part to the effects of a strong El Niño that’s been gripping the Eastern and Central Pacific for months now.

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The chart below shows you the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific – notice that a large swathe of the equatorial Pacific from about the international date line east is experiencing extremely warm temperatures for this time of year – a full 5ºC above normal in large areas. This is why climate forecasters can be more confident than usual in their outlooks for temperature and precipitation this season.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 25, 2015

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Missed a couple updates the last week or so. The weather has been fairly uneventful during this stretch, with the second week of September featuring much above temperatures, while this past week has been more seasonable with respect to temperatures. This weekend, the pleasant, fall-like weather continues, with Saturday being the better half of the weekend.

Rest of today – high clouds have decreased in coverage somewhat since earlier this morning, but with an area of low pressure off the Southeastern US edging northward, cloud coverage may increase again later today. There’s also an onshore flow pattern with wind coming from the northeast, which will keep high temperatures suppressed in the low-70s.

Saturday – Canadian high pressure builds north of us, keeping the area of disturbed weather that’s moving northward from the Southeast at bay. This should result in a mostly sunny day. However, with the high pressure center to the north, onshore winds will continue from the northeast, leading to high temperatures again only in the low-70s.

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Sunday – the high pressure above will move southeast offshore of New England by the end of the day Sunday. With the high out of the way, the low pressure to its south will be able to develop again. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with the possibility for rain later in the evening hours. High temperatures remain on the cool side in the low-70s.

Monday – the chance for rain increases Monday with the high pressure completely out of the picture and low pressure moving in. This rain is much needed as a moderate drought persists in the NYC region (in particular Long Island). High temperatures will be warmer with winds from the southwest, temperatures may approach 80.gfs_namer_066_1000_850_thick

Regional Drought Worsens

The tradeoff for the long stretch of dry and pleasant weather is that moderate drought conditions have returned to areas which had been close to being drought-free last month. Moderate drought has redeveloped over much of the NYC metro area, while a persistent drought has continued to affect eastern Long Island. In fact, since August, the percentage of New York State affected by moderate drought has more than doubled.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 4, 2015

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We have struggled to reach normal temperatures this week, with plenty of rain and Wednesday as the only sunny break. We end this week with more cool, damp weather, before transitioning to warmer, drier conditions this weekend. Portions of the area received anywhere between 2-4″ of rain between Sunday night and Tuesday night, which will help improve drought conditions, however, these rainfall totals also led to flash flooding across large portions of the area.

Rest of today – cloudy, with a small chance for isolated light showers, cool with temperatures topping out only in the low-mid 60s, about 10ºF below normal for this time of year.

Atmospheric setup favoring the cool, cloudy, damp weather
Atmospheric setup favoring the cool, cloudy, damp weather

Friday – more clouds and cool weather, with this easterly onshore flow regime sticking around for one more day. High temperatures will again be only in the mid-60s, much below normal. There is a slightly higher chance Friday for scattered showers, but nothing like the soaking we got earlier this week.

Saturday – some improvement in conditions will take place Saturday as high pressure starts building from the west. Partly sunny skies may give way to more sun, with high temperatures warmer near 80.

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Sunday – high pressure moves to our east, allowing us to enjoy another pleasant, dry day, with high temperatures in the mid-70s.

Monday – a frontal system approaches the area. Ahead of the front, warmer air will flow in from the southwest, giving us temperatures at or above normal near 80ºF. As the front nears, thunderstorms and showers are possible across the region.

 

Arctic Jet Stream Slowing Leading to Increased Incidence and Duration of Extreme Weather? 

The massive quantities of snow that fell over the Northeast this past winter, the flooding rains over Texas last month, the enduring drought over California, and the asphalt-melting heatwave in India have all raised the question of what is causing this apparently increased incidence of long-duration extreme weather events. One possible explanation offered by researchers at Rutgers University is that the polar jet stream circling the Arctic has been slowing.

Jet streams are generated by two factors: the rotational energy of the Earth spinning on its axis, and the pressure gradient between two airmasses of varying temperatures. In the case of the polar jet circling the Arctic, rapid warming of the Arctic over the last couple decades has led to a decreased thermal and pressure gradient between air over the Arctic and air directly to the south. Researchers posit that this effect has led to a slowing of the polar jet stream. Since the jet stream is responsible for moving large (synoptic) scale weather patterns, any affect on its speed and orientation can have dramatic impacts for widespread regions of the world. In this case, the slowing polar jet stream is theorized as the mechanism behind the prolonged effects of the weather events mentioned above.

NYC Weather Update – May 26, 2015

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It certainly does feel as though Memorial Day 2015 has been the unofficial start of summer, given the warm and humid temperatures we’ve had from Sunday onwards. The warm, late-June like temperature trend continues through mid-week, with some chance for thunderstorms. Rain in any form would be most welcome, given that the region has been placed in a region of moderate drought as of this week.

Rest of today – the Bermuda high, more typical of mid-summer, brings us very warm and humid high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, more than 15ºF above average for this time of year. If you like the heat, go out and enjoy it because we might see showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Wednesday – a weak cold front approaches from the west, bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The critical question for NYC will be how long organized storms can stay together as they enter into influence of cooler, maritime air nearer to the coast. Temperatures will remain warm in the low-mid 80s with clouds and some breaks of sun. As is generally the case in these setups, the more sun we can get in the afternoon ahead of the frontal bou

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North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for 8PM EST Wednesday

Thursday – we get another shot at thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, with highs likely topping out around 80 under mostly cloudy skies.

 

Moderate Drought for the Region Forecast to Persist

We’ve had an remarkable run of sunny, rain-free days, and above average temperatures for much of May (and indeed even going back a couple of months), and while that’s translated to pleasant weather for outdoor activities, it also has meant that we’ve entered into a stretch of moderate drought. We had a stretch of no rain for 23 consecutive days, earlier this month, which definitely didn’t help things. According to the USDA Drought Monitor, Central Park recorded 7.12″ of rain from March 1st through May 19th, which is only about 63% of average for this time of year.

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While we are only in the lowest tier of drought and were just added to this category this week, these drought conditions bear watching. We hope to get some rain out of this week, and it looks like more storms are on the way this weekend, however, the drought forecast for our region looks to have the drought persist through this summer.

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NYC Weather Update – May 11, 2015

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This week will be a tale of two airmasses, starting with a warm, moist, maritime tropical one, and transitioning to a more seasonable, cool, dry, continental polar airmass (don’t be alarmed, polar refers to the origin of this airmass, not necessarily the temperatures, although some light frost might occur later this week far inland). In terms of sensible weather, you will notice a marked change between warm, humid, summer-like weather Monday and Tuesday, and cool, windy, and crisp spring-like conditions to end the week.

Rest of today – basically a repeat of Sunday, high temperatures topping out in the low-80s. There is a very slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the inland areas west of NYC where some instability might develop from daytime heating. South-facing shores will be noticeably cooler and cloudier due to an onshore wind from the south off the ocean.

Tuesday – some fog and clouds early, then mostly cloudy with a chance for rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures remain much above normal in the low-mid 80s.

Wednesday – the aforementioned cold front makes its passage, and brings in its wake a return to more seasonable weather. Average temperatures for this time of year are only around 65ºF, and that’s just about where we will end up on Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. There will be a noticeable wind from the northwest as well, making it feel extra crisp.noaad3

Thursday – sunny and dry, with a slight rebound in temperatures into the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 30, 2015

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This week ends with clouds and some small chance of rain, but we’re in for a real sweet stretch of pleasant conditions and warmer than average temperatures from Sunday into early next week. In fact, we could be hitting 80 by Tuesday ahead of a cold front that could bring some thunderstorms with it, before we cool back down into the low-70s, which is still above normal.

Friday – due to the influence of a weak area of low pressure to our south, we will be seeing generally cloudy skies, with some very slight chance for scattered showers in the southernmost portions of the region. Temperatures will be moderate by northeast winds circulating counterclockwise around the low pressure to our south, yielding high temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60, just a few degrees below normal.

Saturday – as the aforementioned low pressure system slides off to the east over the Atlantic, clouds should gradually decrease. Temperatures will also rebound somewhat to around normal with a high in the mid-60s. However, there could be just enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple scattered showers or thunderstorms.

 

gfs_namer_081_1000_850_thickSunday – by this time, an area of high pressure will have developed over the Carolinas. This setup will favor the influx of a warm airmass from the Gulf of Mexico. Skies will clear, and temperatures will be noticeably warmer in the low 70s.

Monday – another gorgeous day to start the week, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-70s (10º above normal). Don’t say I told you so, but if there were a day to skip work, this would be it.

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.
Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.

Tuesday – although it will be even warmer Tuesday than it will be Monday, with highs possibly topping 80, it won’t be quite as pleasant since clouds will be building up ahead of a cold front that will bring our next chance at rain.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 10, 2015

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We’ve finally had a stretch of warmer than average weather after what seemed like an endless winter. Things are set to get even warmer tomorrow in the wake of tonight’s rain storm, before cooling off back into normal range to end the week. Another round of rain (with some mixed precipitation inland) will be impacting the area Friday into Saturday.

Rest of today – light rain falling now should increase in intensity over the course of the evening. Steady rain is expected overnight. Dense fog and low visibilities may be a problem overnight into the early morning hours, due to the influence of a saturated, warm airmass approaching an area of colder air. Overnight lows in the low 40s, with dew points around the same (fog often forms when dew point = air temperature).

Wednesday – any remaining rain should end quickly tomorrow morning. Clouds will give way to sun as high pressure begins to take hold over the area. Before too cold air gets into the area due to a northwest wind, we should see temperatures reach the mid-50s (wouldn’t be surprised if some spots hit close to 60 with the increasing daylight hours).

Thursday – another pleasant, and seasonable day, with plenty of sun and high temperatures around normal in the mid-upper 40s.

High pressure in control
High pressure in control

Friday – one more day of decent weather, but with slightly more clouds than Thursday. Temperatures should top out around the mid-40s again. The next storm system approaches from the west and rain should begin to fall during the late evening hours. Overnight, some mixing with snow/wintry mix could occur, however, by daybreak Saturday, temperatures will be well above freezing and any mixing should return to all rain.

Saturday – a rainy day, but on the mild side with temperatures near 50.

Next storm coming Friday into Saturday
Next storm coming Friday into Saturday

A cooldown coming
Unfortunately, after a week of normal temperatures, we are likely to see a return to below normal temperatures for the second half of March, based on the following forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center. High pressure will be dropping down from Canada again next week, leading to this greater than 60% probability of below normal temperatures. Luckily, since normal temperatures are now in the upper 40s, the below normal temperatures will not mean a return to the frigid tundra.

Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature outlook
Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature outlook
Climate Prediction Center 1 month temperature outlook for March
Climate Prediction Center 1 month temperature outlook for March

NYC Weather Update – Mar 5, 2015

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Today may be the last major winter storm of the winter for us. It certainly has been an eventful and cold winter for the books. We’ll end the week and start off this weekend and early next week with below normal temperatures, but temperatures will rise steadily throughout next week, such that we should be back to normal temperatures in the mid-upper 40s by the end of next week.

Rest of today – snow is already tapering off over the area, with widespread snowfall totals of between 4-8″ reported (largely in line with forecasts). Any remaining precipitation should completely clear the area within the next couple of hours. Screen Shot 2015-03-05 at 4.58.33 PM

Friday – we endure what we all hope will be the last day of temperatures in the low-mid 20s as cold, dry air filters in behind this storm system.

Saturday – high pressure moves in over the weekend, with temperatures Saturday edging up to around freezing.

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Sunday – fair weather continues, but perhaps with more clouds on Sunday as some weak impulses of energy move over areas well to the north of NYC. High temperatures will increase to the low 40s.

Monday – the warming trend continues as spring approaches, high temperatures continue to warm into the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies.

Finally leaving the Arctic air behind?

A large scale warming trend is forecast to take hold over much of the US during the medium term. Temperatures next week should warm progressively such that by next Friday, we’ll be looking at (gasp) high temperatures near 50. The week after, on the cusp of spring, almost the entirety of the Continental US is forecast to experience warmer than normal temperatures, with the exception of Texas, and New York into Southern New England. However, we are forecast to be in normal range of temperatures for this time of year, which means mid-upper 40s. Not quite flip flops and t-shirt weather, but a positive trend nonetheless.

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