Tag Archives: coastal low

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 4, 2020

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A strong nor’easter/coastal low will impact NYC tonight into Saturday. Conditions will deteriorate with the worst weather overnight into tomorrow morning. Gusty winds, soaking rains will accompany this storm. Temperatures will also drop as the storm moves off northeast and winds turn to the north and northwest, however, cold air wrapping around the low will not arrive in time to set the stage for accumulating snow here. Storm clears out by later Saturday. Afterwards, calm, seasonably cool temperatures (low-40s) are in store for next week.

Rest of today – temperatures topping out in the upper-40s with warm air advection/warm front moving up ahead of the main storm. Cloudy, with chances for rain increasing through the day, mostly on the lighter side. Overnight lows largely holding steady in the mid-40s again due to the influence of the incoming warm front. Rain expected to increase in intensity overnight going into Saturday morning.

  • ECMWF hi-res model surface precipitation/precipitation type valid 7AM Saturday
  • ECMWF hi-res model surface precipitation/precipitation type valid 1PM Saturday
  • GFS model surface precipitation/precipitation type valid 7AM Saturday
  • GFS model surface precipitation/precipitation type valid 1PM Saturday

Saturday – models are in pretty good agreement (see above images from GFS and ECMWF models depicting evolution of this storm during the day Saturday) that this coastal storm will evolve quickly and intensify as it tracks offshore southeast of the region. This will result in periods of rain throughout the first half of Saturday, along with increasingly strong winds as the pressure gradient tightens around the deepening low. As the low tracks northeast, winds will be turning from the south to the north and northwest. This will bring in much cooler air, although not cold enough to support accumulating snow at the coast. As a result, temperatures will be dropping during the day Saturday into the low-40s. Precipitation should end rather quickly in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low-30s wit winds easing.

Weather Prediction Center’s forecast storm track based on recent ensemble model runs.

Sunday – sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows around 30ºF.

Monday – similar day to Sunday with sunny weather and high temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows again around 30ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 1, 2020

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April ended with another stormy week with plenty of rain. May starts of grey Friday, followed by a spectacular day Saturday. Rain enters the picture again Sunday. Behind this next storm system, things will cool off again. This will lead temperatures to continue their cool trend throughout most of next week. During this period high temperatures will range at least 5ºF below the upper-60s that are normal for this time of the year.

Rest of today – the slow moving storm that began impacting us yesterday continues to influence weather today. Scattered showers wrapping around the backside of the low responsible for this storm could still occur. Temperatures should generally be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-50s as the storm finally exits.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this storm, bringing the best day of the frorecast period with high temperatures expected to top out around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Sunday – just like last weekend, the sunny, dry weather barely lasts before the next storm moves in. This will be a weaker, and faster moving storm so rain should be on the lighter side. Currently expecting most of the day Sunday to be dry with clouds building and high temperatures still warm in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Monday – once this low clears our region, winds shift to the north and a cooler air mass works its way in. Skies clear with temperatures falling back the low-60s. Overnight lows only in the upper-40s. This cool trend looks set to continue for the duration of next week. Though after a week with high temperatures in the 50s, the low-60s looks pretty good.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 6-10. Below average temperatures are indicated as very likely for much of the Eastern US
  • This temperature trend is borne out in the GFS models 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies. This chart is valid for 8AM Tuesday

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 24, 2020

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Two coastal lows bring will rain today and Sunday. Saturday ends up being a nice day in between with some high pressure building briefly. The second coastal storm coming on Sunday drags into Monday bringing rain and cool temperatures. Throughout this period, temperatures will range at least 5ºF below normal. This below normal temperature trend, largely a continuation of this week, looks set to continue well into next week.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-50s with cloudy conditions and periods of steady rain off and on for much of the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain winding down and clouds clearing.

Saturday – sunny skies and high pressure should allow temperatures to climb to about 60ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – unfortunately, the dry weather doesn’t last as a second storm moves in for Sunday, bringing yet more rain and cool, cloudy weather. High temperatures topping out only in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Monday – high temperatures still suppressed in the low-50s as this second storm lifts to the east. Overnight lows in the low-40s. Going into next week, temperature will stay below normal, anywhere between 5-10ºF. Later in the week, it appears a potent, closed 500 mb low will be the culprit for keeping temperatures down (and bringing yet more rain to us)

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Apr 29-May 3, showing below average temperatures continuing to affect much of the northeastern quadrant of the US
  • GFS 500 mb temperature, height and winds for 2AM Thursday, Apr 30. A closed 500 mb low is forecast to move over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario – this will be partly responsible for cooler than normal temperatures.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 18, 2019

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Spells of rain will bookend what should otherwise be a pleasant week of mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend slightly below normal for this time of year, however, we will avoid any dramatic swings in temperature. Record cold will not be on the table either. All in all, it should shape up to be a fairly typical mid-November week.

Rest of today – windy, mostly cloudy, with chances for scattered rain showers as a slow moving coastal low continues spinning off of the coast of New England. High temperatures should only hit the mid-40s with the cooling influence of clouds and persistently northeasterly flow. Chances for rain continue overnight with lows dropping into the upper-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Monday

Tuesday – rain chances should finally end as the coastal low affecting us finally pulls away to the northeast. Clouds should break up leading to a decent day with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows should be around 40°F.

Wednesday – partly sunny with highs around 50°F. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

GFS 500 mb height, relative vorticity for 1PM Friday. We can see a distinct shortwave trough approaching from the west. Enhanced vorticity around the base of this trough should help touch of some precipitation at the surface as a cold front sweeps through.

Thursday – best day of the week with high pressure briefly building in. High temperatures again around 50°F, with overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 15, 2019

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Seasonable temperatures to start the weekend won’t last as a cold front dives through and Canadian high pressure builds behind it Saturday. Cooler flow from the northeast will set up as the high sets up north of us and moves east. Winds will increase in intensity as an approaching coastal storm from the south leads to a tighter pressure gradient. This storm is currently tracking well offshore. However, we may still see some rain from the outer bands of the storm Monday. Aside from Saturday, temperatures will largely range 10-15°F lower than normal during this period.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows around 30°F with winds increasing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – with high pressure in control, we should see sunny conditions, but temperatures will be cooler with steady northeast winds of 20-25 mph. High temperatures around 40°F. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Sunday – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-40s. Chances for rain possibly going overnight into Monday. Low temperatures in the upper-30s.

GFS model output for 7PM Monday, depicting a glancing blow from a coastal storm moving northeast well offshore of the area.

Monday – chances for showers with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mostly cloudy otherwise. Overnight lows around 40°F. Persistent northeast flow may lead to coastal flooding concerns.

NYC Mother’s Day Weekend Weather – May 10, 2019

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Mother’s Day weekend here in NYC unfortunately looks to be quite rainy. We start off with the potential for rain later today. Saturday is shaping up to be the sole dry day with high pressure briefly building before giving way to a prolonged period of wet weather Sunday and Monday. So, if you’re making any outdoor plans for mom, consider bumping them up to Saturday!

Rest of today – cloudy, with temperatures around 70°F. We will sit in the warm sector of an elongated low centered over western Quebec as a warm front has already passed overhead. This will allow plenty of mild, moist air to stream northward with southerly winds ahead of the trailing a cold front associated with this low. This cold front will serve as the trigger for some showers and thunderstorms later this evening as it swings through. Overnight lows behind this cold front in the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Friday

Saturday – high pressure briefly builds in during the day. This will give us the best weather of the weekend with mostly sunny conditions and seasonable high temperatures in the upper-60s. Ideal weather for any outdoor activities. This nice weather doesn’t last with clouds building into the overnight hours and low temperatures dipping to the low-50s

Sunday – another storm system approaches from the south. A warm front at the leading edge of this storm seems likely to stall out. This will bring a prolonged period of chances for showers, cloudy skies, and cooler temperatures with easterly onshore winds. High temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight lows quite cool in the upper-40s as rain chances continue.

GFS model output for 2PM Sunday

Monday – a coastal low forms along the frontal boundary mentioned above. At this time, it appears this coastal low tracks close enough to make Monday another rainy day with cool temperatures, highs in the mid-50s, 10-15°F below normal for this time of year. Overnight lows looking even colder than Sunday if prolonged rain and a northeasterly wind flow materializes with this coastal low, current forecasts pointing to the mid-40s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 2, 2019

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High pressure gives way to a be coastal storm that will sideswipe the area. Following this, we’ll see a brief warm up, but temperatures will cool off towards the end of the week. We have rain chances overnight into tomorrow and Friday night.

Rest of today – high temperatures around 50°F. Increasing clouds ahead of a coastal approaching from the south. Overnight, chance of rain with low temperatures around 40°F.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday, depicting a coastal storm passing us to the southeast.

Wednesday – winds increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. High temperatures warming into the low-60s be with clouds dissipating and winds shifting to the southwest. Overnight lows drop back into the low-40s behind the passage of a dry cold front. Winds will shift to a colder northwesterly direction. 

Thursday – cooler with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-50s. Low temperatures colder in the upper-30s. 

Friday – another low approaches from the southwest. High temperatures below average in the mid-40s, rain chances increase later in the day with the low pressure drawing closer. Rain chances continue into the overnight hours with lows in the low-40s.

NYC Weekend Update – Jul 20, 2018

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Last weekend’s beautiful, sunny weather will be but a fleeting memory this weekend as a coastal storm hits the area late Saturday going into Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and even some severe weather are possible Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for isolated flash flooding. Unsettled weather continues into next week with a tropical weather pattern setting up providing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – a great start to the weekend, with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies.

Saturday – cool, with high temperatures only in the upper-70s due to the influence of easterly winds ahead of a warm front attached to the advancing coastal storm. Clouds increasing late in the day and rain chances picking up in the evening hours going into overnight. Chance for heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds (even an isolated tornado possible). Gusty east winds will make the overnight hours feel particularly cool and miserable.

Sunday – rain chances continue into the day and even Sunday night. Temperatures increase behind the passage of the warm front mentioned above and winds shifting to the south – high temperatures should be in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. All told, we could be looking at widespread rainfall totals of 1-3″ across the area.

Monday – showers likely again as temperatures remain in the mid-80s under mostly cloudy skies. A strong upper-level trough will be wedged between two areas of high pressure. The one off to our east over the western North Atlantic will continue to strengthen over the course of the week, blocking the eastward advance of this upper trough. This effectively will result in an extended period of southerly flow, with moist, tropical air coming our way. Multiple impulses of energy are expected to travel along this strong upper-level trough. Each one will bring with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern does not appear to break until next weekend, although it’s not as though each day will be a washout either.

 

NYC Weather Update – Jan 29, 2018

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This week starts and ends with some active weather. Colder temperatures that swept in after the passage of a cold front this weekend will be here to stay for the remainder of the week. We get a couple chances to see some snow, but not anything of considerable quantity.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. A coastal storm passes by but far enough offshore that we shouldn’t see serious impacts from it.

Tuesday – chance of rain and snow in the overnight hours with some troughs rotating around the back side of this departing coastal low. Could have enough snow to make for a messy morning commute, but we’re not looking at any significant accumulation. Cloudy otherwise with temperatures topping out in the low-30s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures around freezing.

Thursday – increasing clouds with temperatures warming into the mid-40s in the warm sector before the next storm system hits us.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 15, 2018

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We have a week of below average cold to contend with before a warm up over the weekend. Two separate chances for snow will take place Tuesday, but neither of these events is expected to drop large snowfall totals.

Rest of today (MLK Jr Day) – cold with high temperatures in the upper-20s and increasing clouds.

Tuesday – temperatures at or just above freezing. Cloudy with a clipper system moving through and bringing chances for light snow accumulation of around an inch.

Wednesday – snow chances continue into the first part of the day as the clipper system transitions into a coastal low. Overall snow accumulation not expected to exceed 2″ at this time.

Thursday – mostly sunny with high temperatures just above freezing.