Partly sunny start to the week, highs around 60ºF. Cold front coming tomorrow bringing showers with highs in the mid-60s. Behind this front, cooler temps in the mid-50s through mid-week as Canadian high pressure builds in. Cooler than normal trend set to continue into the weekend and early next week.
Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures around 60ºF. Mostly cloudy overnight with lows around 50ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for Tuesday at 8 AM. An approaching cold front will bring a chance for showers. Behind this front, cooler temperatures will prevail.
Tuesday – mostly cloudy, chance of showers, with high temperatures in the mid-60s ahead of an approaching cold front. Following the cold front, lows will drop back to the upper-40s.
Wednesday – mostly sunny with high pressure building behind the aforementioned cold front. Cooler, with high temperatures in mid-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s!
Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 temperature outlook valid for early next week. The cooler than normal trend looks somewhat likely to continue into this time frame.
Thursday– another mostly sunny but cooler than average day with high temps in the mid-50s and overnight lows only around 40ºF.
The holiday weekend starts of with sunny skies and mid-60s temps. A cold front Saturday brings rain, and much cooler temps by Easter Sunday only in the low-50s. This cooler trend will continue into Monday as clouds increase ahead of the next storm system. Temps the second half of the weekend will be 8-10ºF below normal, a big contrast from this week!
Rest of today (Good Friday, Passover) – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. This will be the best day of the weekend. Overnight lows in the low-50s with clouds building.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for Saturday at 8 AM. A cold front will be approaching during the day.
Saturday – cloudy with rain showers developing later in the day, with high temperatures in the low-60s. Temperatures will fall into the low-40s after a cold front passes through. Shower activity should taper off overnight.
Sunday (Easter) – mostly sunny but much cooler, with high temperatures only hitting the low-50s. This is 8-10ºF below normal for this time of year. Overnight lows dropping back into the low-40s.
GFS model 850 mb temperature anomalies valid for 5 PM Monday. Unlike this week, when we had strong positive anomalies, we’ll be seeing a -6ºC anomaly Monday, leading to much cooler temperatures at the surface.
Monday– clouds increasing ahead of the next storm system affecting us, with high temperatures again below normal in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with rain developing.
Rain clearing early today, highs in the low-70s. Slight drop to the mid-60s tomorrow, then a big warm up Thursday ahead of a cold front, highs in the mid-70s. Some thunderstorms possible with this front. Temps back off into the mid-60s to end the week with mostly sunny skies.
Rest of today – showers passing through the next couple of hours. Skies should clear out steadily during the rest of the day. Temperatures should warm up nicely into the low-70s as a result. Overnight lows around 50ºF
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for Wednesday at 2 AM. The cold front bringing us rain today will return north as a warm front.
Wednesday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s as the cold front that passes through today returns north as a warm front. Temps could go higher if the warm front passes early in the day. Little moisture or lift is available with this warm front so not expecting rain at this time. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Thursday – with the region in the warm sector of a parent low moving into eastern Canada, temperatures are set to soar into the mid-70s. Inland areas could see 80s. These temperatures would be nearly 20ºF above normal for this time of year. A cold front will sweep through later in the day and could bring some thunderstorms. Overnight lows around 50ºF with showers passing.
GFS model 850 mb temperature anomalies at 5 PM on Thursday, showing a strong +8ºC anomaly at that time. This should translate to much above average high temperatures at the surface.
Friday– high temperatures moderating back down to the mid-60s with sunny skies after the cold front. These temps are still about 10ºF above normal. Overnight lows around 50ºF.
Surge of spring-like warmth today ahead of a cold front. Showers and gusty winds accompany the passage of the front and usher in a much colder air mass Tuesday. High temps dropping from mid-60s today to low-40s tomorrow. Wed, we could get clipped by outer precip bands from an offshore low, with enough cold air in place to cause some snow flurries.
Rest of today – unseasonably warm and mostly cloudy with highs rising to the low-mid 60s. Breezy southerly winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts. Overnight lows dropping rapidly into the mid-30s behind the passage of a cold front, bringing showers around 7-9 PM tonight.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh simulated radar valid at 7 PM this evening, depicting a narrow band of fast moving showers approaching the city attendant to the passing cold front.
Tuesday – much colder with high temperatures topping out in the low-40s. Clearing skies, partly cloudy. Overnight lows in the low-30s.
Wednesday – snow showers likely, with possible light accumulations up to 1″ in the city (more likely on unpaved areas) due to the impact of an offshore storm. The GFS model seems more bullish on colder air/heavier precip while the Euro shows more of a dusting. High temperatures in the mid-30s. Overnight lows in upper-20s.
GFS 24 hour snowfall accumulation ending 7 AM Thursday.
Thursday– mostly sunny with high pressure building briefly in. High temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s with rain chances increasing going into Friday as another storm system approaches from the west.
Thanksgiving Day 2021 for NYC shaping up to be the best weather of the week. High pressure will keep an approaching cold front at bay and provide warm, westerly downsloping winds that should push temperatures into the low-50s. Enjoy it while you can, because gusty rains will follow Thursday night with the cold front, then we’re looking at cold temps going into the weekend in the low-40s.
At the surface, high pressure will still predominate our local weather. This will keep rains at bay, while the shallow pressure gradient around the area will lead to light winds. The Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons will surely be flying high over the first spectators to view them since the pandemic started!
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8 AM Thursday. High pressure will be to our south while a cold front approaches from the west.
Looking at the forecast soundings at 8 AM Thursday, around parade jump off time, we can see that the boundary layer below 3000 feet should be relatively dry and cloud free, but it does appear that a deck of clouds will be in place from that 3000 feet up. Light winds of 5 knots or less are forecast in this case.
GFS forecast soundings for NYC at 8 AM Thursday
Once the cold front makes its passage overnight Thursday and into Friday morning, the mild weather will come to an abrupt end. Winds will pick up due to an increasing pressure gradient between the strengthening parent low associated with the front and high pressure building over central Canada. The winds should be effective at bringing about cold air advection, transporting this colder, drier continental polar airmass towards us over the weekend. This will result in high temperatures only in the low-40s, clearing skies, and wind chills in the 30s.
A brief warmup Tuesday as highs rise into the upper-80s to near 90ºF before a cold front swings through Wednesday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Seasonable and drier conditions behind the front in the mid-80s to end off the week with plenty of sun.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with high pressure briefly building and temperatures rising to 90ºF. Overnight lows dropping into the low-70s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8 AM Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching from the north and west.
Wednesday – partly cloud with a cold front crossing the region during the day. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Thursday – drier, cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
GFS 500 mb temperature, height, and wind for Friday at 8 AM. Heights will drop around a closed low centered over the Canadian Maritimes, leading to seasonable temperatures. Some of the energy rotating around this low could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area.
Friday– high temperatures again in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies and chance of showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
A wet, cool start to the week with an early round of thunderstorms that moved through this morning. Another is likely to follow early in the overnight tonight. Lingering showers Tuesday with a weak surface low in the vicinity. Highs below normal in mid-70s Monday, then warming up to average by midweek with sunny weather returning. The warm up continues into the weekend – Father’s Day looking good weather-wise so far!
Rest of today – high temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies. A second frontal boundary will push towards the area later this evening, with showers and thunderstorms again possible into the early overnight hours. Temperatures falling into the mid-60s.
HRRR simulated 1-kim radar valid for 9:30 PM tonight. An area of moderate to heavy rain accompanying some thunderstorms is depicted.
Tuesday – mostly cloudy still with a chance for showers early. High temperature near 80ºF. Overnight lows in the low-60s with clearing skies.
Wednesday – high pressure builds in behind what should be a dry cold frontal passage and resulting in a mostly sunny day with high temperatures around 80ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-50s given that the high pressure will usher in cooler, drier Canadian air.
GFS 500 mb temperature, height, and wind for Thursday at 8 PM. Heights will be building with a longwave trough exiting to our east. The result will be pleasant, sunny weather.
Thursday– mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Pleasant conditions with the high pressure above still in control. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Upper-80s heat and humidity will spawn scattered heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. Low vertical wind shear and weak overall steering currents mean the primary threat from these storms will be possible localized flooding. A backdoor cold front drops in from Canada Wednesday night leading to much cooler temperatures Thursday in the low-80s. Rain and even cooler temperatures arrive Fri when we may only just hit 70ºF.
Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s, and a muggy feel to the day. Scattered thunderstorms bring the potential for heavy downpours later in the evening, perhaps starting around 7PM. Overnight lows in the low-70s as showers roll through early.
HRRR simulated 1-kim radar valid for 8 PM tonight. An area of moderate to heavy rain accompanying some thunderstorms is depicted.
Wednesday – high temperatures again in the upper-80s. Mostly cloudy with yet another shot for some heavy downpours especially later in the afternoon as a cold front draws nearer. Overnight lows around 70ºF as a backdoor cold front eventually pushes through.
Thursday – with the backdoor cold front already south of us by Tuesday morning, high temperatures should cool off to around 80ºF. Chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows around 60ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for valid 12 AM Thursday. A backdoor cold front is forecast to drop in from the north and east. The result will be a much cooler air mass than we’ve seen the beginning of this week.
Friday– much cooler with persistent clouds and showers possible through the day, high temperatures perhaps only around 70ºF. Overnight lows around 60ºF with rain chances continuing.
Quite a different picture this weekend versus last weekend. Instead of summer like warmth, temperatures will be 10-20ºF below normal in the 50s-60s Saturday and Sunday. A series of slow moving coastal lows is the culprit, bringing much needed rain, and the most substantial rain since the beginning of the month. Memorial Day looks sunnier with temperatures climbing back towards normal in the 70s.
Rest of today – increasing clouds, high temperature in the mid-upper 60s. Rain begins to arrive towards the late afternoon and continues on right through the overnight hours. Overnight lows dropping to around 50ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8 AM Saturday. A low pressure center moving from the Ohio Valley will elongate with a stationary front extending east-northeast offshore of the region. Waves of low pressure will the move along this boundary this weekend bringing multiple rounds of rain.
Saturday – windy, rainy, and raw, with temperatures only in the mid-50s, which is more typical of March than May. Persistent northeasterly onshore flow with a stationary front positioned south of the region and waves of low pressure moving along it will act to keep things cloudy and cool. Overnight lows again around the 50ºF mark with rain chances backing off but still possible.
Sunday – another low pressure moving along that stationary front will bring more chances for rain particularly early in the day. High temperatures slightly warmer in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness and precipitation type for 11 AM Sunday. Another area of low pressure is depicted impacting the area.
Monday– the unsettled weather finally moves off with a return to sunnier weather. High temperatures Monday should hit the low-70s as a result. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.
Welcome relief from the heat today with high temperatures below normal in the 60s as cool, onshore flow sets up. The warmth returns by mid-week with highs again touching 90ºF by Wednesday. A strong thunderstorm is possible with a cold front passing through that day. Afterwards, temperatures cool but still reach above average highs in the low-80s on Thursday.
Rest of today – partly sunny with gradually increasing sun, high temperatures in the mid-60s with easterly and northeasterly winds shifting towards the southeast. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface analysis for valid 5AM Monday. Overnight, a cold front pushed southwest of the area, allowing for a much cooler air mass to take hold, with easterly onshore flow off the still as yet cold waters of the Atlantic.
Tuesday – warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s and partly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Wednesday – a warm front will pass through and put us in the warm sector of a strong low centered well to our north over Canada. Temperatures are expected to reach around the 90ºF in the city. Later in the day, as a cold front approaches, scattered but possibly strong thunderstorms could roll through. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for Wednesday at 5PM. We are forecast to see +7ºC anomalies at this level of the atmosphere, corresponding to much above normal temperatures at the surface.
Thursday– skies clear out with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows around 60ºF.
Subtropical Storm Ana
Over the weekend, the first named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, Subtropical Storm Ana, formed over the open waters of the Atlantic northeast of Bermuda. While the storm itself was never a threat to land, it does mark the seventh year in a row that a named storm formed ahead of the formal start of the hurricane season.
GOES satellite imagery showing the circulation of Subtropical Storm Ana
We can’t draw any conclusions from a single storm, but it is worth noting that nearly all major forecast sources including NOAA are calling for a season of above average hurricane activity.
