Tag Archives: cold front

NYC Weather Update – Jul 23, 2018

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Wet weather this weekend continues into much of this week as we settle into a pattern favoring rain chances every day. Tropical moisture remains firmly entrenched in the region due to an anomalously strong upper trough and deep layered southerly flow. A strong high pressure center over the western North Atlantic will block the progress of frontal boundaries until next weekend when we finally get a break from the wet weather.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, high temperatures in the low-80s. Chances for scattered showers throughout the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy, high temperatures again in the low-80s. Lower chances for rain than the rest of the week due to the high pressure mentioned above retrograding west. This should keep things largely dry.

Wednesday – best chance for sustained bouts of heavy rain as a cold front approaches from the west but stalls out and dissipates. High temperatures in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies again. Flash flooding could be a concern given the atmospheric water content and the southerly steering currents parallel to the frontal boundary, favoring training of storms hitting the same area repeatedly.

Thursday – yet another day with the chance for showers and thunderstorms, high temperatures in the mid-80s and mostly cloudy.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 16, 2018

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This week starts off hot and humid before we get a break from the humidity as a cold front rolls through late Tuesday. This will be a relatively strong front, and with plenty of moisture in place prior to its passage, bouts of heavy rain are possible with the thunderstorms accompany it. Although high temperatures won’t dip too much following the cold front, dew points will, and this will bring a much drier and more comfortable feel.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the low-90s. A heat advisory is in effect due to the combination of hot temperatures and high dew points making for an oppressive, muggy day.

Tuesday – increasing clouds, high temperatures in the upper-80s prior to the onset of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon, going into the evening hours and overnight. The set up of the atmosphere tomorrow could allow for some marginally severe storms to develop. The primary threat will be from heavy rain and some strong wind gusts given the moisture in place and somewhat favorable shear.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with highs in the mid-80s but more comfortable with dew points significantly lower behind the cold front. Refreshing northerly winds should make for a nice day.

Thursday – another great day with sunny skies and with highs in the mid-80s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 13, 2018

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Friday the 13th might be bad luck but not in terms of the weather this weekend. High pressure will only be briefly interrupted by the passage of a weak cold front late Saturday into Sunday. Not much in the way of rain expected with this front. Looking ahead, next Tuesday holds the best chance for appreciable rain. Temperatures will be on the warm side until late next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny and warm with highs in the upper-80s.

Saturday – mostly sunny then increasing clouds late as a cold front approaches. Highs around 90°F.

Sunday – slight chance for thunderstorms early, then partly sunny, highs in the upper-80s.

Monday – mostly sunny, highs in the upper-80s again.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 18, 2018

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A sultry start to this week will lead to cooler and more pleasant weather as the week wears on. We have two chances for rain, overnight tonight and then overnight Wednesday. Overall, it appears to be a dry week, with another unsettled weekend coming up.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. We could set or break a record for Central Park today at 95ºF. A cold front approaching later tonight could touch off some strong thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain given the moist environment. The strongest storms will be limited to areas north of the city, away from the usualy stabilizing marine influence, and where wind shear profiles are stronger. Best timing for showers and thunderstorms will be 8PM tonight with a pre-frontal trough then early Tuesday morning with the actual cold front passing through.

Tuesday – behind this cold front, clouds should clear up, though tomorrow is still expected to be quite warm with high temperatures in the upper-80s. The main difference will be lower dew points that should result in a decidedly less muggy feel to the day.

Wednesday – warm with high temperatures in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies. A weak disturbance pushing through overnight may bring some rain.

Thursday – nice day with high temperatures in the low-80s. Cooler, refreshing Canadian high pressure will dominate.

NYC Weather – Jun 12, 2018

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A mostly dry, and pleasant week is in store for us. We will see a steady warming trend, with the only real chance for wet weather happening Wednesday accompanying the passage of a warm front and cold front. Great weather lasts right into the weekend.

Rest of today – cool and sunny with high temperatures below normal in the low-70s due to the influence of easterly onshore winds.

Wednesday – a warm front will approach from the southwest. Ahead of that frontal boundary, we could see chances for mainly stratiform showery rain during the late morning hours. Behind this warm front, expect a humid feeling high in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies until the arrival of the trailing cold front. This second frontal boundary has a better chance to fire off a few thunderstorms, which could be locally strong, late in the evening and into the overnight hours.

Thursday – high pressure returns and gives us a nice sunny day of high temperatures in the low-80s with westerly winds bringing in warmer air from the interior.

Friday – slightly cooler in the upper-70s to around 80ºF but lots of sun again with high pressure staying in control but shifting east.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 8, 2018

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We have a weekend of stunning late spring weather on tap, with temperatures above normal to start, then cooling off for the second half of the weekend. Little in the way of rain is possible this weekend, so this is an ideal weekend for all types of outdoor activity, including the upcoming Subway Series and Belmont Stakes!

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front means we will get a milder air mass from the southern US.

Saturday – another nice day with more clouds, but still pleasant warmth in the low-80s. A dry cold frontal passage will signal a shift to cooler conditions for the second half of the weekend.

Sunday – behind this cold front, Canadian high pressure will bring back the influence of a continental polar air mass. This will result in below average cooler temperatures in the low-70s, but with mostly sunny skies. The only blemish on this could be some lingering showers from the overnight passage of a shortwave along the cold front that will settle just south of the area.

Monday – mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-70s as we begin a week with a warming trend.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 1, 2018

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This weekend’s weather will feel gloomy and feature multiple chances for rain. The influence of the remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will influence the air mass, making it feel very humid, and allowing for the potential for heavy rain. Going into next week, mixed signals from major forecast models hint at the possibility for a coastal storm.

Rest of today – an early round of rain and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a warm front should give way to a relatively rain-free day. Fog should begin to dissipate as the rain passes through. Temperatures will be mild, in the low-80s with overcast conditions, with a muggy feel due to the influence of a tropical air mass (thanks Alberto!). Late in the day and into the overnight hours, a cold front will approach that could spark a few more storms.

Saturday – the cold front that approaches from the northwest overnight will slow down as it nears us and stall out in our vicinity. An impulse of upper-level energy will move through and likely spawn a low pressure center in the area. This will lead to better chances for rain than today. Temperatures will be around 80°F again with overcast skies.

Sunday – this will be the best day of the weekend as Canadian high pressure attempts to build in. This should yield dry conditions, though there will probably still be plenty of clouds around. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs around 70°F in this Canadian air mass.

Monday – there are mixed signals in forecast models that suggest the possibility of a coastal storm developing early next week. At this point it appears we’ll have a wet start to the week with cool temperatures in the mid-60s and mostly cloudy skies, as well as more rain.

NYC Weather Update – May 28, 2018

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This week will see mostly average temperatures, with the exception of a very warm day tomorrow. Later on in the week, remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto will have an impact on our sensible weather, bringing on an extended period of unsettled weather that carries into next weekend.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-70s with decreasing clouds. If clouds break up sooner in the afternoon, we could see warmer temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a warm front will move through overnight into Tuesday. Temperatures will be significantly warmer with mostly sunny skies behind the frontal boundary, with high temperatures close to 90°F in the city away from south-facing shores.

Wednesday – mostly sunny still, with high temperatures falling back to normal levels in the mid-70s as a backdoor cold front moves through. This will cause a shift in winds to the east, bringing cooler, marine air onshore.

Thursday – increasing clouds with chances for rain late in the day, high temperatures holding in the mid-70s.

NYC Weather Update – May 21, 2018

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We start this week off with above average warmth, which will only be punctuated by one day of cooler, wetter weather tomorrow. High pressure returns from Wednesday through the end of the week, bringing us more sunny weather, as well as temperatures gradually increasing to the low-80s by the end of the week. Looking ahead towards Memorial Day weekend, Saturday looks to be the best day, with some rain chances Sunday and Monday.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a weak disturbance will move through the area along with a warm front. This will yield rain chances later in the day, with the potential for heavy downpours in stronger storms that develop. With cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be significantly cooler, in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – behind this warm frontal passage Tuesday, temperatures should rebound into the upper-70s on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – a cold front will push through going into Thursday but high pressure will build quickly and this is anticipated to be a dry frontal passage. Temperatures should remain decently mild with highs in the low-70s and mostly sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – May 15, 2018

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The story of this week will be the continuation of an unsettled weather pattern from this past weekend. Today, we will see a chance for some severe thunderstorms, and more rain chances lurk for us during the rest of this week, even extending into the weekend. Temperatures during this time will vary between normal and below normal depending on the extent of cloud cover and rain.

Rest of today – warm, humid, with a high in the mid-80s. Chances for severe thunderstorms increasing late in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, with primary threats being damaging “hurricane force” wind gusts, as well as heavy rain. Some large hail and an isolated tornado are not out of the question. High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar suggests the best timing of when the storms hit NYC will be around 6PM during the evening rush hour. This will make for a messy road home.

As you can feel already, the air is quite saturated (fog earlier this morning confirms this), this moisture-laden air will be one ingredient fueling storm growth later especially as temperatures warm with cloud-free skies allowing solar heating to quickly destabilize this air mass. At the surface, a cold front slowly approaching from the north and west will serve as the trigger that provides the lift necessary for storms to initiate late this afternoon. Aloft, the presence of a mid-level shortwave trough upstream of us will help prime the atmosphere, increasing lapse rates and instability aloft, while providing some additional divergence and lifting for storms. Lastly, late in the day, we will be in the right entrance region of a 300 mb jet streak, another favorable ingredient for divergence and synoptic lift. Winds at all levels above the surface will be fairly strong, producing a shear profile that favors strong winds. However, any discrete storms that form ahead of the main squall line could contain strong rotating updrafts favoring large hail and tornadoes. As usually, best chances for severe weather exist north and west of the city, away from the stabilizing influence of the marine layer near the coast. Storms will likely weaken as they hit NYC precisely due to this.

Wednesday – will be significantly cooler behind the cold front with high temperatures only in the mid-60s. Rain chances continue as the frontal boundary stalls and becomes stationary just to our south, in a similar arrangement to what took place over the weekend. This pattern looks to lock in for the rest of the week, bringing multiple chances for rain with it.

Thursday – a drier day mostly, with some slight chance for showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with high temperatures rebounding into the upper-70s. Rain moves back in again overnight going into Friday.

Friday – cooler again with temperatures dipping into the mid-60s. Mostly cloudy with more chances for rain during the day as the stationary front mentioned above pushes back north as a warm front.