Tag Archives: cold front

NYC Weekend Weather – Columbus Day – Oct 6, 2017

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The first half of this long weekend will continue the warm summer feel we’ve had since mid-week. Some much needed rain arrives Sunday going into next week in conjunction with the anticipated remnants of Tropical Storm Nate. This does literally mean that it will rain on the Columbus Day parade.

Rest of today – mostly sunny. Warm with highs around 80°F.

Saturday – partly sunny, not a bad day though with high temperatures in the low-80s. The stationary front depicted above that’s sitting close to the city will push north of us as a warm front. This will open the door to an increasingly tropical feel with higher dew points and more moisture in the air.

 

Sunday – mostly cloudy. Rain chances increasing in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible. Rain that develops could be heavy with tropical moisture flowing into the area. Still warm, with temperatures in the low-80s. An advancing cold front will push up precipitation partially fueled by Tropical Storm Nate (which is anticipated to make landfall on the New Orleans/Mississippi coastal area this weekend. This precipitation will be moving in on our area well in advance of the actual core of the remnants of Nate.

Monday (Columbus Day) – rain and thunderstorms as the bulk of the remnants of Nate move into the area. Rain heavy at times. Cooler with highs dipping into the mid-70s. With Nate approaching to the southwest of us, we should see more steady rain and clouds, keeping temperatures suppressed.

 

Tropical Storm Nate

Tropical Storm Nate is expected to strengthen into a minimal hurricane after it crosses near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the Gulf of Mexico. From that point, it’s expected to accelerate towards the Gulf Coast and make landfall in the vicinity of New Orleans, the Mississippi Delta and coastal Mississippi. Even though this storm will pale in comparison to Irma and Maria, it has already claimed 20 lives in Central America due to heavy rains and flooding.

 

NYC Weather Update – Sep 25, 2017

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Hurricane Maria will not be coming our way this week. The cold front that will be responsible for pushing Maria out to sea arrives late in the week and induces a return to fall weather. Until then, it will continue to look and feel like summer.

Rest of today – warm, sunny, high temperatures well into the mid and upper-80s

Tuesday – some patchy fog over night. Any fog should burn off early and high temperatures should reach in the low-80s with mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – could see some more clouds, and possibly some rain along a frontal boundary passing through. High temperatures in the low-80s.

Thursday – clouds and sun with temperaturea around 80°F.

NYC Weather Update and Hurricane Irma – Sep 4, 2017

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The unofficial end of summer does indeed bring us a last gasp of summery weather. A cold front passing through mid-week brings rain and signals a return to more fall-like conditions. Later in the week, we will see high temperatures 5°F below normal. Turning towards the tropics, the risk Irma poses to our region is diminishing, but it now appears Irma will be a threat to Florida.

Rest of today – clear, with ideal conditions for outdoor activities of all kinds. High temperatures in the low-80s.

Tuesday – highs in the low-mid 80s as warm air surges ahead of an advancing cold front. Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late in the day. Some possibility for a spot shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Wednesday – thunderstorms are possible overnight Tuesday as the leading edge of the cold front advances through the area. More rain is expected to ride along the frontal boundary after it passes through, bringing periods of showers throughout the day. High temperatures will be much cooler in the mid-70s with the clouds and rain.

Thursday – mostly cloudy to start with a chance for lingering rain. High temperatures will be cool again in the low-70s.

Friday – mostly sunny skies, much improved conditions as high pressure takes hold. Cool, with high temperatures in the low-70s.

 

Hurricane Irma an Increasing Threat to Florida

Over the weekend, Irma has been fluctuating in strengthen as it has negotiated marginal conditions for strengthening (mostly the influence of some dry air at upper levels). The National Hurricane Center still forecasts Irma to attain Category 4 strength at some point later this week (130 mph sustained winds or higher) as it encounters more favorable conditions for strengthening, and maintain at least Category 3 strengthen (sustained winds > 115 mph) throughout the forecast period.

The track forecast for Irma has continuously shifted west and south over the weekend due to the influence of an area of high pressure over the Atlantic now, and a faster forecast for the passage of the cold front mentioned above. This frontal boundary lifting out of the East Coast at a faster rate than in prior forecasts would mean that it does not influence Irma to make a turn to the north-northwest and threaten the East Coast. This has two consequences: 1) The chance for Irma to make landfall up the East Coast is diminishing, 2) On the other hand, the risk to Florida is increasing.

This run of the GFS forecast model suggests Irma making landfall on South Florida as a powerful Category 3 hurricane in one week’s time.
A “spaghetti” plot of multiple model runs of GEFS, one of the forecast models that forecasters are using to analyze Irma.

It is important to note that with a week to go before Irma nears the US mainland, there could still be room for changes to the track and intensity forecasts. The National Hurricane Center specifically cautions against drawing premature conclusions about the storm’s impact on the rest of the US, while singling out Florida as an area of concern. More updates to come as we continue to watch the development of what could be a very dangerous storm.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 28, 2017

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Nice weather from the weekend continues today. Chance for rain on Tuesday. Temperatures remain below normal through the week except Thursday. Labor Day weekend looks to start off like autumn.

Rest of today – clouds this morning expected to dissipate somewhat. Below normal temperatures with highs in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a disturbance off the coast of northeast Florida has the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Irma. Regardless of whether the storm successfully undergoes tropical cyclogenesis, it is still anticipated to bring us some tangible weather impacts. This would be in the form of some rain especially later in the day as it makes a transition to an extra-tropical storm.

Easterly onshore winds from this storm to our south will suppress high temperatures in the low-70s and give us a mostly cloudy day.

Wednesday – unlike Tropical Storm Harvey, the storm above will accelerate quickly out to the Atlantic, so Wednesday should turn out to be a pretty decent day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding back to the upper-70s.

Thursday – a cold front will pass through the area during the day and could trigger a few scattered thunderstorms. Warmer air ahead of the cold front should give us about average high temperatures in the low-80s.

 

Peak Hurricane Season

We’re on the cusp of the traditional peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, which typically begins around late August and lasts through till late September. This period typically sees the highest oceanic surface temperatures (due to the specific heat of water being relatively high, there’s a lag in time between peak solar heating of summer and actual peak ocean temperatures), which in ups the potential for tropical cyclone development.

Not surprisingly, we’ve got Harvey still devastating the Texas coast, about to re-emerge over open water before making a second landfall later this week. We’ve also got a possible tropical cyclone off of the Southeast coast and another tropical wave moving offshore of Africa that could develop into a tropical storm as it moves west. A lot of activity to monitor, hoping that none of it comes our way!

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 4, 2017

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A hot week transitions into a weekend that will see the end of the heat and humidity for at least half of next week and maybe longer. Rain and thunderstorms dot the forecast except appropriately Sunday.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. The rain and thunderstorms this morning give way to a dry day otherwise.

Saturday – a warm front moves through overnight into the morning with a cold front following right on its heels. This will bring a period thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. Marginally favorable atmospheric conditions could spawn a few strong storms. Clouds clear up in the afternoon and highs are expected to reach normal levels in the mid-80s.

Sunday – cooler, drier air moves in behind the cold front Saturday. High pressure builds to the south and west and moves south sending cooler Canadian air around its periphery towards us. High temperatures will be comfortable around 80°F with lots of sun.

Monday – a weak disturbance brings rain and cooler temperatures, well below average only in the mid-upper 70s.

Trouble in the Tropics?

A vigorous tropical wave has spun up off the west African coast and Cabo Verde. Storms originating from this region have historically been some of the most powerful and damaging, but that’s if they can sustain the transit across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has this wave at a 50% of forming into a tropical depression or storm in 2 days, and 80% chance in 5 days. It’s worrying that it’s starting to get picked up on long-term GFS model runs taking a swipe at the US East Coast as a strong tropical cyclone, however, this far out, it’s difficult to say which one of many scenarios could play out. It does bear monitoring though.

GFS for Wednesday 8/16, with the tropical system in the picture right off the East Coast of the US.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 24, 2017

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This past weekend, we saw a heatwave broken by several rounds of moderate to heavy rain associated with a couple frontal systems. In their wake, we start this week with temperatures below seasonal averages. This cooler airmass will dry out midweek and give us very comfortable average temperatures in the low-80s.

Rest of today – one more round of moderate to heavy rain pushing through now, then expect a break from the rain during the remainder of the day before another chance for showers later this evening and into the overnight hours, around 8-10PM. Cool, with am easterly onshore flow. High temperatures in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – high pressure begins to build but may not be sufficiently strong to completely remove the chance for showers especially early. Temperatures remain cool in the mid-70s again with a northeasterly onshore influence and cloudy skies.

Wednesday – warmer and sunny finally with high pressure in control, highs will rise into the low-80s.

Thursday – warmer still and into average high temperatures with highs in the mid-80s, but the tradeoff is increasing clouds.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 17, 2017

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We enter a week of weather that will very much feel like summer, with temperatures warming up during the midweek period. Each day, there could be a chance for showers or thunderstorms, though these will be more of the scattered variety. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels by the weekend.

Rest of today – partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up this afternoon in some spots. A few storms could become strong or even severe. Temperatures in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – another chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with a weak front in the area, but partly cloudy otherwise and temperatures again in the mid-80s.

Wednesday – warming up with temperatures edging closer to 90°F. Partly cloudy skies, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms again especially during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Thursday – hottest day of the week with temperatures in the low-90s. Partly sunny, and there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes through the area, but the timing of this frontal passage is as yet not completely certain. Current thinking is that the front passes through overnight into Friday.

Friday – still quite warm in spite of the cold front passing through, high temperatures around 90°F again and mostly sunny.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 14, 2017

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What a difference a day makes – we went from a high in the low-mid 90s yesterday to a high today 20ºF cooler. Anticipate multiple rounds of rain throughout Friday, but much improved conditions for the weekend itself. We get another shot at rain on Monday to start next week.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with an easterly wind and the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass following the passage of a cold front earlier, we will experience significantly below normal high temperatures only in the low-mid 70s. The cold front will stick around just south of us during this time, and multiple impulses of energy will ride along this front. This means chances for rain, outside of this morning, most likely again in the early evening hours.

Saturday – early morning fog clears out quickly and gives way to a partly to mostly sunny day with much warmer temperatures in the mid-80s.

Sunday – sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.

Monday – a gradual warmup begins Monday with high temperatures into the upper-80s and a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 10, 2017

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This week’s weather will be dictated by a frontal boundary that will dwell in our vicinity, giving rise to multiple days when we could see rain. A warm, humid, tropical airmass will be in place, which adds the potential for heavy rain and maybe some localized flooding. To top it off, Tuesday also holds a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around normal in the low-80s. A warm front lifting northwards brings a noticeably muggier feel later on.

Tuesday – we will be firmly inside the warm sector, wedged between the warm front mentioned above and an advancing cold front. A prefrontal trough will provide the best dynamics for thunderstorm initiation. Storms that do form will have ample energy to feed off, though less so over areas east of the Hudson under a marine influence. Mostly cloudy otherwise, warm and humid with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Wednesday – partly sunny, with chances for showers. Highs in the mid-upper 80s depending how much sun we see.

Thursday – another day where we could see rumbles of thunder and rain, mostly cloudy and warm again with highs in the mid-80s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 7, 2017

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Soggy start to the weekend quickly improves. We should see a seasonable and fair weather weekend in the NYC area, although Saturday carries a chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will be the better of the two days.

Rest of today – on the cool side with the clouds, highs in the low-80s. The flooding rains we’ve received this morning will subside quickly after lunch and we might even get a little sun later. Another afternoon spot shower or thunderstorm is also possible.

Saturday – a cold front moves through and provides the trigger for some showers or thunderstorms, but do not anticipate a washout like this morning. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Sunday – mostly sunny with high pressure building behind the cold front. Temperatures again in the low-80s.

Monday – should be another dry day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.