Tag Archives: cold front

NYC Weekend Weather + Hurricane Matthew Update – Oct 6, 2016

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The main weather headline for this weekend was going to be about possible impacts from Hurricane Matthew. I’m glad to report it now appears the storm will miss us, but the good news for us translates for doubly bad news for Florida. We went from a possible hurricane/tropical storm impact this weekend to a weekend where we expect to see some decent, fall-like weather.

Rest of today – sunny with a high temperature in the low-70s.

Friday – sunny, slightly warmer with highs in the mid-70s. High pressure remains anchored over the area, blocking the progress of Matthew northward, and also giving us great weather.

Saturday – a cold front will approach from the west, clouds will increase overnight and there is a chance for rain on Saturday. Mostly cloudy otherwise with highs in the low-70s. Part of the reason Matthew is expected to miss the Northeast is because this frontal boundary was faster to approach than was forecast earlier. This means it will have a role in pushing Matthew out to sea, instead of lifting it north towards the coast here.

Sunday – noticeably cooler with below average high temperatures only in the mid-60s and skies clearing.

Hurricane Matthew No Longer a Threat to the Northeast – Could Hit Florida Twice

As of 11AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center‘s advisory showed that Hurricane Matthew had restrengthened into a robust Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140mph. It had just moved past New Providence island in the Bahamas moving northwest at 14mph, having avoiding a direct landfall on the highly populated island where the capital Nassau sits. However, as we get more information in, it’s becoming clear that some areas of Haiti really got the worst case scenario. This video footage from the small town of Jeremie on the northern side of the western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula shows the catastrophic damage Matthew caused. Jeremie took a direct hit from the storm’s northeastern eyewall, the strongest part of the storm, as Matthew made landfall on Haiti as a Category 4 with 145mph winds. This gives you an idea of the raw power of the storm that’s now headed for Florida.

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Satellite image of Matthew at 11AM EDT October 6th, 2016. Below: radar imagery from Miami shows Matthew’s eye.

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Outlook for Matthew

Luckily for us, long-range forecast models show that Matthew no longer poses a threat to the Northeast. The flip side is that a fairly unprecedented scenario might befall Florida. Some models are suggesting that after Matthew moves offshore of the Carolinas, it may execute a large cyclonic loop, with the possibility of making a second landfall on South Florida later next week, albeit as a much weaker storm. First, Floridians all up and down the east coast, will have to contend with a dangerous Category 4 storm scraping along the shore or maybe making direct landfall. The coast scraper scenario would result in worse outcomes for Georgia and South Carolina, since reduced interaction with land will mean a stronger storm, as well as higher storm surge.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Sep 16, 2016

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Yesterday was the Mid-Autumn Festival, a traditional harvest festival celebrated by many cultures in East Asia. It certainly felt more fall-like yesterday with below average temperatures after we spent one day near 90ºF on Wednesday. The fall weather continues this weekend, with a chance for some much needed rain Sunday.

Rest of today – crisp and cool with high temperatures below normal in the low-mid 70s.

Saturday – a bit warmer, with temperatures a couple degrees above normal under sunny skies, in the upper-70s.

Sunday – ahead of an advancing cold front, we could see showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain, particularly in the afternoon. high temperatures will warm up a little ahead of this front, into the low-80s under mostly cloudy skies.

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Monday – since the frontal boundary won’t pass through until late in the day, there’s a lingering chance for showers with high temperatures hovering around 80ºF.

 

 

NYC Weather Update – Sep 12, 2016

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After a steamy end of the week last week, we get a refreshing change to fall-like weather for most of this week. The only exception will be Wednesday, when there looks to be a return to hotter temperatures.

Rest of today – high pressure is in control for today, which should yield mostly sunny conditions with high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s.

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Tuesday – high pressure moves a bit further to our east, allowing for warmer air to flow in from the south. This will result in temperatures warming up to around 80ºF with sunny skies.

Wednesday – as the high pressure center above continues to move east, return flow form the south and southwest will continue to warm temperatures up and increase the humidity. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s.

Thursday – a weak cold front will pass through overnight Wednesday into Thursday. In the wake of this frontal boundary, a new area of high pressure will build over the Great Lakes. This will result in much cooler temperatures, in the mid-70s with a northerly wind. Thursday night, which is the Mid-Autumn Festival, should see spotless skies for moon viewing.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Sep 8, 2016

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This past week, weather headlines were dominated by the uncertain course of how Post-tropical Cyclone Hermine would unfold. Now that Hermine has dissipated and is well behind us, we look ahead to the end of the week which will start off warm, but cool off somewhat.

Rest of today – it’s sunny now, but clouds are moving in from the north and west, and will likely result in partly sunny skies later on. High temperatures will range into the upper-80s and around 90ºF in some parts.

Friday – with an area of high pressure to our southwest, warm, humid air from south will flow into the region allowing temperatures to rise into the low-90s. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Saturday – a frontal boundary will be lingering in our vicinity during the day. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout. High temperatures will be a bit cooler, in the mid-upper 80s.

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Sunday – the frontal boundary pushes through as a cold front and brings in some relief from heat and humidity. Skies will clear and allow temperatures to rise to the mid-80s.

Drought Persists, Some Relief Ahead?

Parts of our state are still dealing with an extreme drought, though in our region, we’re “lucky” enough to only have a moderate to severe drought in parts of Long Island. The monthly outlook does call for some drought relief for Long Island, though.

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NYC Weather Update – Aug 15, 2016

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The scorching heat from the weekend isn’t completely gone to start the week. In general, the weather will be cooler than last week, though we’re still expecting above average temperatures for this period. Luckily, we’ve gotten some rain from the extended period of unsettled weather last week and over the weekend, which is helping to ameliorate drought conditions over the region.

Rest of today – high temperatures around 90ºF with a heat advisory in effect. It would appear that a round of rain and/or thunderstorms is headed towards the area around 8PM tonight.

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Tuesday – a nearly stationary front will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop in the region, particularly in the afternoon hours. Only a tad cooler with high temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the stationary front mentioned above will lift north eventually as a warm front. This will set the stage for some possibly strong thunderstorms on Wednesday as a trailing cold front makes its push into the area. High temperatures will again be in the upper-80s with partly sunny skies.

Thursday – with a cold front finally moving through, we should see an end to the rain chance, and temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly sunny skies, but with a drier, less humid feel.

Drought Conditions Improving?

The near-term outlook for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center both point to above average trends.

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Despite warm temperatures, the last week of multiple rounds of rain has helped improve drought conditions in some portions of the region. You’ll see in the second graphic below, due to the rains both up to this point and that are forecast, drought removal might happen for much of the Southeaster New York area in the next month. This includes NYC but excludes Long Island, where a severe drought continues.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 11, 2016

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The second half of this week and this weekend will feel as though we’re living in a tropical monsoon climate zone, given the extended period of unsettled weather that we’ll be experiencing. Nearly every day over the course of the next 5-7 days, we’ll see a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some capable of producing torrential rainfall, along with a very warm and humid airmass staying in place.

Rest of today – periods of clouds and sun, likely becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the first batch appearing to arrive around lunch. High temperatures will be around 90ºF but with the very humid air, heat indexes will be well into the upper-90s. This is the reason for there being a Heat Advisory in place until Saturday evening.

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Friday – similar set up to today, periods of sun mixed in with mostly cloudy spans as well. Highs will again be around 90ºF, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The exact timing, placement, and intensity of the storms for Friday and this entire forecast period will be difficult to forecast with accuracy ahead of time.

This is due to the fact that many of the storms will be driven by subtle perturbations in the atmosphere moving around the periphery of a Bermuda High, and differential day time heating – hence why the chance for showers and thunderstorms is greatest in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze convergence boundaries are likely to serve as triggers for these storms. This Bermuda High is what has been and will be responsible for maintaining the oppressively hot and humid conditions. The tropical airmass it brings will mean that any storms that form will have the potential to tap into tropical moisture and produce very heavy rain that could lead to localized flash flooding.

Saturday – will be by far the hottest day of the weekend with high temperatures forecast to reach into the mid-upper 90s. Heat indexes will be in the upper-90s to low-100s in some parts, likely triggering Excessive Heat Warnings. Once again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur in the afternoon hours.

Sunday – a cold front will approach the region on Sunday, which will lead to a more consistent and higher chance for organized thunderstorm activity. High temperatures will remain hot, in the low-90s.

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Monday – low confidence for the forecast through Monday, as the timing of the cold front passage is uncertain. It may linger, which would result in yet more chances for rain. High temperatures should cool off to below 90ºF in the upper-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 8, 2016

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The weekend gave us a mixed bag of weather, with some rain but mostly warm and humid weather. Humidity starts off at a comfortable level this week, but picks up towards mid-week when get a chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures during this period will be above average by about 5ºF, though it will not be nearly as hot as a couple weeks ago.

Rest of today – more clouds than sun for the next few hours, but we’re still expected to hit highs in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – sunny, with highs in the mid-upper 80s.

Wednesday – increased humidity, mostly cloudy with a high in the mid-80s. We will be squeezed between an incoming cold front and a high pressure center in the Atlantic, which will result in a mostly southerly flow of warmer, humid air into the region.

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Thursday – warmer, with highs around 90ºF and partly sunny skies.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 5, 2016

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We’ve been able to enjoy a very comfortable week of summer weather. High temperatures have been largely held in check in the low-mid 80s this week. This weekend, there will be a chance for some rain Saturday, but Sunday will be another nice day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, high around 85ºF.

Saturday – watching for the risk of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The degree of severity will hinge upon how much cloud cover there is during the first half of the day, and whether any storms pop up early. If there are more clouds early, and some storms show up early, the available energy for storms in the afternoon associated with a cold front will be limited. Ahead of this cold front, warm, humid air will flow in, and temperatures should peak near 90ºF.

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Sunday – skies will clear quickly following the passage of the aforementioned cold front. High pressure begins to take over and will give us a nice, sunny day, with highs in the mid-80s.

Monday – almost a clone of Sunday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – with high pressure still almost directly overhead, we will get another nice day with highs in the mid-80s.

Slight Improvement in Drought Conditions

With recent rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms that have impacted the area, we’ve seen a slight improvement in drought conditions, but the situation is still far from desirable.

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NYC Weather Update – Jul 25, 2016

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Recent weather headlines have been dominated by the heat. This will continue through most of the week, with relief not really in sight until Friday. There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms today, but otherwise, there will be little in the way of rain.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, hot, with highs in the mid-90s. Humidity will make it feel like the lower-100s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk for severe weather today. This relates to what appear to be multiple line segments of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing ahead of a weak cold front that look to impact the area during the PM rush.

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Tuesday – with the weak cold front above passing through, there will be some drop in humidity. However, temperatures are still expected to rise into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – temperatures finally start to back off the mid-90s into the low-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – increasing clouds, high near 90ºF.

Drought Continues to Grip the Northeast

Drought continues to worsen and is now prevalent in many parts of the Northeast, with areas in Western New York and Massachusetts particularly hard hit.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 21, 2016

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This weekend’s weather can be summed up in one word: hot. In fact, if current forecasts hold, this upcoming stretch may see our first extended 90ºF+ heat wave. High temperatures don’t appear likely to drop below 90ºF until next Wednesday. During that time, the humidity will actually increase until a cold front breaks through late Tuesday. This will be another prime beach/upstate getaway weekend.

Rest of today – sunny with a high around 90ºF.

Friday – mostly sunny, slightly warmer with a high in the low-90s. There is a chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late Friday with the passage of a cold front. Any relief from heat that this front and storms associated with it bring will be short-lived.

Saturday – high pressure quickly returns and temperatures continue to rise along with it. Highs are expected in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.

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Sunday – a bit cooler, but humidity will increase as a warm front pushes through late on Sunday. High temperatures in the low-90s.

Monday – showers and thunderstorms are possible later Monday preceding a cold front that is forecast to pass on Tuesday. Highs will remain in the low-90s.

Above Average Temperatures to Stick Around

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day temperature outlook continues to call for above normal temperatures. The heat is here to stay.

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