Tag Archives: cold front

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 11, 2015

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We will likely be experiencing one of the hottest days of the year so far, with temperatures expected to top out in the upper-80s and into the low-90s in a few spots this afternoon. The warm weather continues through Saturday, when an area of high pressure over eastern Canada brings us some relief from the heat. In terms of the weekend, Sunday will definitely be the better day, with cooler temperatures, but dry weather.

Rest of today – temperatures are expected to top out right around 90 in the city. Increasingly humid air will lead to an uncomfortable feeling day. There is some potential for thunderstorms, some possibly marginally severe, occurring in the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches from the north and west. The orientation of the frontal boundary and primary storm vector will align in such a way that training of storms could occur, leading to the same locations getting hit by multiple storm cells.

In addition, an air quality alert is active today, with PM2.5 particle being the primary driver in pushing the Air Quality Index into the low 100s (unhealthy for sensitive groups).

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.
Air quality forecast for today
Air quality forecast for today

Friday – the cold front that pushes through today with some possible thunderstorms will stall just south of the area, then push back north through the area as a warm front Friday. This means we will not get any respite from the heat, with highs again expected to be in the upper-80s to near 90, and another chance at more thunderstorms. There will be more sun Friday than today, but atmospheric dynamics are not expected to be supportive of severe weather.

Saturday – the warm front that passes through Friday comes back yet again as a cold front as it gets dragged along by the low pressure center moving to the northeast. This means yet another chance for thunderstorms, and ahead of that, warm temperatures remaining in the upper-80s.

Sunday – the weather finally settles down and stabilizes as a high pressure center builds to the north in behind the cold front passing on Saturday. This should lead to cooler temperatures and sunny skies for Sunday, when temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Monday – another frontal boundary will be making its approach from the west on Monday, however, the timing of its approach is such that chances for rain will be low on Monday. Temperatures should again be comfortable around 80.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 8, 2015

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The weekend offered us some respite from what had been a cool, wet week. This week starts off with the potential for more drenching rain and thunderstorms before conditions calm. By the second half of the week, we will experience a noticeable increase in temperatures, with highs on Thursday possibly touching 90 in a few spots.

Rest of today – cloud cover should clear out for the next few hours until the next chance at rain comes later this evening. Depending on how much sun we get, high temperatures could reach the mid-upper 70s. Later this evening and overnight, we should see some showers in advance of an approaching cold front. While thunderstorms are expected west of the Hudson, the stabilizing influence of onshore sea breeze bringing in a marine air layer will serve to limit thunderstorms from persisting across NYC and points east along the coast. In any case, the heaviest rain appears to hold off until after 8PM.

 

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 1AM EDT Tuesday.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 1AM EDT Tuesday.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy day with highs near 80. The aforementioned cold front draws nearer, giving us more chances at showers and thunderstorms, particularly later in the day. As with today, stronger storms will likely be limited to inland areas to the north and west that will not be affected by a sea breeze.

Wednesday – weak high pressure builds in for Wednesday behind the cold front. Generally sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s.

Thursday – humid and warm air flowing in from the southwest ahead of another frontal system will raise temperatures on Thursday to near 90ºF. This will feel like a late-July summer day with the high humidity.

NYC Weather Update – May 31, 2015

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We start the week off with some much needed rain and a noticeable cool down in temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage later today and transition into more widespread showers that are expected to persist into the overnight hours. The start of the week will be rainy, cloudy, and cool under the influence of a Canadian maritime airmass. By midweek, we get back into more fair conditions with the sun returning and temperatures back in the mid-70s.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas of Northeastern New Jersey in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms later. Based on latest radar trends and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s output, it would appear that thunderstorms are likely to develop over portions of New Jersey highlighted in the slight risk area, then track eastwards into the NYC metro area later this afternoon into the early evening hours. With breaks in the clouds for sun, we’ll hit temperatures in the low-80s, which when coupled with ample moisture, should support thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain.

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High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 8PM EST
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 8PM EST

Monday – all the activity occurring today and going into the overnight hours is associated with a cold front that is moving south into our area. As this cold front pushes through, east-northeast winds will set up, allowing a cooler, Canadian maritime airmass in. This will translate into cooler than average temperatures only in the mid-60s with showers likely throughout the day.

Tuesday – wet, cool weather continues Tuesday with highs again only in the mid-60s and the ongoing chance for rain showers throughout the day. This extended period of rain from later today into Tuesday should bring some relief to the moderate drought conditions over parts of the Northeast, with the potential for as much as 4″ of rain over the period in certain parts of the region.

Possible total rainfall over the next 48 hours
Possible total rainfall over the next 48 hours

Wednesday – high pressure finally builds back in Wednesday, pushing away the rainy weather, and yielding pleasant temperatures in the low-mid 70s under partly cloudy skies.

Thursday – slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the upper-70s in NYC.

NYC Weekend Weather & 2015 Hurricane Season Forecast – May 28, 2015

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Yesterday, portions of our area got some much needed rain from a round of thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal trough. Today, we get another shot at rain and thunderstorms as the primary cold front actually pushes through. Behind that front, things cool off and dry out for Friday, before the humidity returns on Saturday. Things should stay dry Saturday, but we will see a more substantial chance at widespread rainfall Sunday with the passage of another cold front. Also of note, the National Hurricane Center released its outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, calling for a below normal season.

Rest of today – clouds give way to sun with warm temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon. The atmospheric setup today is a bit more favorable to showers and thunderstorms being able to persist into NYC and western Long Island, unlike yesterday when these showers essentially died out as they hit the stable marine air layer near the coast. The exact location of where storms form and move into will still be tricky to pinpoint even at this time.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output simulated radar for 3PM EST today.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output simulated radar for 3PM EST today.

Friday – once the frontal boundary passes through later today, it will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass for Friday. Temperatures should top out in the mid-upper 70s (still 5-10ºF above normal) under sunny skies.

Saturday – temperatures will be slightly warmer in the low-80s on Saturday with an increase in humidity as well. There could be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms later in the day as well.

Sunday – another cold front passes through the region Sunday, bringing with it the chance for more substantial and widespread showers. Temperatures will also cool off to around normal, in the low-mid 70s.

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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Hurricane Center released its initial outlook for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season that officially starts on June 1st. As you’ll see from the graphic below, forecasters are calling for a below normal season with 6-11 named storms (tropical storms with sustained winds greater than 39mph). Of these named storms, forecasters think 3-6 have a chance to intensify into hurricanes (maximum sustained winds greater than 74mph), and of those hurricanes 0-2 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, maximum sustained winds greater than 111mph). Outlook_2015_FINAL

 

The primary reason for the 70% probability of a below normal season is the disruptive effect of El Niño in the Eastern Pacific, which is known to alter the pressure and air currents over the tropical Atlantic, dampening the formation of hurricanes. On the other hand, the above average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific associated with El Niño are expected to induce an above average Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon season. Read the full statement from the NHC here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html

NYC Weather Update – May 26, 2015

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It certainly does feel as though Memorial Day 2015 has been the unofficial start of summer, given the warm and humid temperatures we’ve had from Sunday onwards. The warm, late-June like temperature trend continues through mid-week, with some chance for thunderstorms. Rain in any form would be most welcome, given that the region has been placed in a region of moderate drought as of this week.

Rest of today – the Bermuda high, more typical of mid-summer, brings us very warm and humid high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, more than 15ºF above average for this time of year. If you like the heat, go out and enjoy it because we might see showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Wednesday – a weak cold front approaches from the west, bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The critical question for NYC will be how long organized storms can stay together as they enter into influence of cooler, maritime air nearer to the coast. Temperatures will remain warm in the low-mid 80s with clouds and some breaks of sun. As is generally the case in these setups, the more sun we can get in the afternoon ahead of the frontal bou

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North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for 8PM EST Wednesday

Thursday – we get another shot at thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, with highs likely topping out around 80 under mostly cloudy skies.

 

Moderate Drought for the Region Forecast to Persist

We’ve had an remarkable run of sunny, rain-free days, and above average temperatures for much of May (and indeed even going back a couple of months), and while that’s translated to pleasant weather for outdoor activities, it also has meant that we’ve entered into a stretch of moderate drought. We had a stretch of no rain for 23 consecutive days, earlier this month, which definitely didn’t help things. According to the USDA Drought Monitor, Central Park recorded 7.12″ of rain from March 1st through May 19th, which is only about 63% of average for this time of year.

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While we are only in the lowest tier of drought and were just added to this category this week, these drought conditions bear watching. We hope to get some rain out of this week, and it looks like more storms are on the way this weekend, however, the drought forecast for our region looks to have the drought persist through this summer.

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NYC Weather Update – May 11, 2015

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This week will be a tale of two airmasses, starting with a warm, moist, maritime tropical one, and transitioning to a more seasonable, cool, dry, continental polar airmass (don’t be alarmed, polar refers to the origin of this airmass, not necessarily the temperatures, although some light frost might occur later this week far inland). In terms of sensible weather, you will notice a marked change between warm, humid, summer-like weather Monday and Tuesday, and cool, windy, and crisp spring-like conditions to end the week.

Rest of today – basically a repeat of Sunday, high temperatures topping out in the low-80s. There is a very slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the inland areas west of NYC where some instability might develop from daytime heating. South-facing shores will be noticeably cooler and cloudier due to an onshore wind from the south off the ocean.

Tuesday – some fog and clouds early, then mostly cloudy with a chance for rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures remain much above normal in the low-mid 80s.

Wednesday – the aforementioned cold front makes its passage, and brings in its wake a return to more seasonable weather. Average temperatures for this time of year are only around 65ºF, and that’s just about where we will end up on Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. There will be a noticeable wind from the northwest as well, making it feel extra crisp.noaad3

Thursday – sunny and dry, with a slight rebound in temperatures into the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 30, 2015

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This week ends with clouds and some small chance of rain, but we’re in for a real sweet stretch of pleasant conditions and warmer than average temperatures from Sunday into early next week. In fact, we could be hitting 80 by Tuesday ahead of a cold front that could bring some thunderstorms with it, before we cool back down into the low-70s, which is still above normal.

Friday – due to the influence of a weak area of low pressure to our south, we will be seeing generally cloudy skies, with some very slight chance for scattered showers in the southernmost portions of the region. Temperatures will be moderate by northeast winds circulating counterclockwise around the low pressure to our south, yielding high temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60, just a few degrees below normal.

Saturday – as the aforementioned low pressure system slides off to the east over the Atlantic, clouds should gradually decrease. Temperatures will also rebound somewhat to around normal with a high in the mid-60s. However, there could be just enough instability in the atmosphere to spark a couple scattered showers or thunderstorms.

 

gfs_namer_081_1000_850_thickSunday – by this time, an area of high pressure will have developed over the Carolinas. This setup will favor the influx of a warm airmass from the Gulf of Mexico. Skies will clear, and temperatures will be noticeably warmer in the low 70s.

Monday – another gorgeous day to start the week, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-70s (10º above normal). Don’t say I told you so, but if there were a day to skip work, this would be it.

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.
Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 forecast for temperature. Our odds are very good for getting warmer than normal temperatures.

Tuesday – although it will be even warmer Tuesday than it will be Monday, with highs possibly topping 80, it won’t be quite as pleasant since clouds will be building up ahead of a cold front that will bring our next chance at rain.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 7, 2015

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This will be my last post for another few weeks as I will be traveling in South America. This week, we have an active weather pattern that will lead to a series of periods of rain. Mid-week, temperatures will be well below normal (mid-40s), but towards the end of the week, through the weekend, and to begin next week, temperatures will rebound to slightly above normal (low 60s).

Today – we’ve already had a round of light to moderate rain pass through earlier this morning. The rest of the day will feature temperatures falling through the 50s, along with overcast skies and a light onshore flow. A second round of rain looks set to hit the area around the evening rush hour today.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 5PM today.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 5PM today.

Wednesday – a raw, rainy, and cold day is in store tomorrow. A stationary front (the reason for the extended period of unsettled weather) will push through late Tuesday as a cold front. This will allow for much colder air from Canada to enter the area, which will lead to temperatures only in the mid-40s (10-15º below normal). Periods of rain are likely throughout the day and into the night.gfs_namer_021_1000_850_thickThursday – essentially a repeat of Wednesday, with chances for rain through out the day, and cold, cloudy conditions otherwise. High temperatures again only in the mid-40s.

Friday – chances for rain continue through Friday as a warm front will be approaching from the south. Once this front pushes through, we’ll see a return to milder temperatures with highs in the low 60s (about 5-8º above normal).

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The Weekend – conditions finally begin to improve on Saturday with a cold front having pushed through. Chance for precipitation dwindles, with highs in the low 60s. Sunday is even better with clear skies and warm temperatures near 60.

Warm Trend for Next Week

Climate Prediction Center has our region in an area of greater than 50% chance of above average temperatures for next week. This should translate to pleasant, spring like conditions for next week!

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NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 2, 2015

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We’re finally getting a run at some spring-like weather with highs above normal to end the work week. We’ll get some of those April showers that we’re hoping will lead to a fantastic display of spring flowers later this month and May. A cold front passing through Saturday will knock temperatures back a notch, and then we enter into a period of active weather dictated by a stalled frontal boundary the first half of next week.

Today – warm and breezy, with a high near or just over 60. Clouds increasing late, as a warm front approaches from the south. A chance of showers develops overnight as this warm front continues moving towards us.

 

Friday – an even warmer day on tap, with that aforementioned warm front having passed through. We’ll be in the warm sector until later when a cold front moves through. High temperatures, despite rain and clouds, should still be able to top out in the lower 60s.

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Saturday – with the cold front passing through, temperatures will drop on Saturday, back to about normal in the lower 50s. Partly sunny skies will slowly give way to more clear conditions.

Sunday – Sunday through Wednesday will be rather interesting. A frontal boundary is expected to push through Sunday, however, it is then expected to stall in our vicinity for a few days. As waves of low pressure ride along this stalled frontal boundary, the chance for showers persists through Wednesday.

A nice start to next week with above average high temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the mid-upper 50s along with those chances for rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 27, 2015

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We got a taste of what high temperatures should be like for this time of year Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold front that has since moved through will set the stage for a return to below normal temperatures to start the weekend. With a low pressure center well to our east possibly spawning an inverted trough, there is some possibility for light rain/snow mix overnight Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday and we go into next week with about normal temperatures right around 50.

Rest of today – a noticeably colder night on tap with northwesterly winds in the wake of that aforementioned cold front allowing for low temperatures to dip to about freezing. Any lingering precipitation would manifest itself as rain/snow mix, with points further east having a higher chance of seeing wet snow.

Saturday – a much colder than average day, with high temperatures only hitting the mid-upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal. Cloudy, windy, and raw, with snow showers possible early (accumulation unlikely), and rain showers later.

We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.
We are right on the western fringe of a precipitation associated with that low pressure center off of southern Nova Scotia.

Sunday – things clear up nicely as that low pressure keeps pulling off to the east. Temperatures rebound a bit into the low 40s, which is still well below average.

Monday – a continued warmup ahead of a dry cold front, with high temperatures topping out around 50 under increasingly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – a pleasant, seasonable day with high temperatures in the low 50s and mostly sunny skies as high pressure comes into control.

The next chance at precipitation comes Tuesday night into Wednesday with a fast moving clipper system.

Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.
Warmer air swinging around a high pressure area to our south.