Tag Archives: cold front

NYC Weather Update – Mar 22, 2015

March 22, 2015Climate, NYC, Rain, Weather Updateclimate prediction center, cold front, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, spring, spring weather, warm front, warm sector, weather, winter, winter weatherLei Zhao

This upcoming week will feature some big swings in temperature, with high temperatures increasing steadily up through Thursday, when highs could 60 before a cold front swings through. Following the passage of this cold front, we dip back into the mid-40s and continue cooling into the lower-40s this weekend. The temperature trend in the medium term remains below normal, potentially well below normal even through the first week of April, as a series of cold fronts continue to allow cold Canadian air to enter the area.

Monday – an area of high pressure will yield a sparkling sunny day, but will also permit cold, Arctic air back into the region. Northwest winds combined with noticeably cold overnight lows will produce uncomfortably cold conditions. High temperatures Monday may barely break freezing. It’ll be one of the coldest day we’ve had this month.

Tuesday – also gets off to a chilly start, but high temperatures are expected to push up to around 40 (which is more than 10ºF colder than normal).

Wednesday – a clear start, but clouds will be building ahead of a warm front that will pass over the region late Wednesday. Temperatures will steadily climb to near 50, especially after the warm front passes. There will be a slight chance for rain later Wednesday in conjunction with this frontal passage.

Thursday – highs will near if not break 60, however, it is anticipated to be a overcast day with periods of rain possible throughout the day. After the warm front passes Wednesday, we’ll be firmly within the warm sector, between the warm front to our east and the approaching cold front from the west. This setup favors the influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf riding in on persistent southwesterly winds, before a dramatic shift following the cold front passing, with winds becoming west-northwest and a drop in temperatures.

Friday – high temperatures drop back in to the mid-40s, as clouds break apart and colder, dry air takes hold behind the cold front.

Below Normal Start to April

It’s close to a sure bet (70% probability) that we’ll end the month of March and start April with below normal temperatures, taking a look at the Climate Prediction Centers forecasts below. I know we’re all sick of this seemingly endless winter, but we’re still not out of the woods in terms of temperatures.

6-10 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

8-14 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

NYC Weather Update – Mar 2, 2015

March 2, 2015Freezing Rain, NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Updatecold front, nyc weather, nyc winter weather, rain, sleet, snow, storms, warm front, winter, winter weather, winter weather nyc, winter wxLei Zhao

March will start off with quite an active, messy week for us. During the middle of the week, we’ll see snow, rain, and then more snow, before we end off the week with temperatures well below normal once again.

Tuesday – clouds will begin to increase throughout the day with chances for snowfall increasingly steadily as well. Not much in the way of accumulating snow is expected during the day Tuesday. High temperatures around 30.

Wednesday – overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, temperatures will actually rise as a warm front pushes through. This will allow temperatures on Wednesday to top 40. Snow early on will give way to sleet, then eventually transition to all rain. This period of rain should melt some of the existing snowpack, and there could be some minor/nuisance flooding of poor drainage areas as this occurs.

Thursday – once the cold front depicted above pushes through late Wednesday, cold air will rapidly fill in behind it and allow for temperatures to drop back into the mid-20s. As this occurs, a second wave of low pressure is expected to form over the Mid-Atlantic and move over the area. This may lead to enough precipitation to warrant a Winter Storm Warning, with 6″ of snow possible by Thursday afternoon. Highs will be near 30.

Friday – as these storms finally move away, Friday will be a sunny day, but with Arctic air back in place over the area, we’ll be once again welcoming high temperatures in the mid-20s, which at this point is over 15 degrees below normal.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 24, 2015

February 24, 2015Climate, NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendarctic, arctic air, arctic cold, cold, cold front, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, snow, winter, winter weather, winter weather nycLei Zhao

After that brief “warmup” during the weekend, we’re once again mired in Arctic cold air. This cold trend continues with a reinforcing shot of cold air as a cold front sweeps through Wednesday. Behind that, high pressure builds in over the area for the end of the week and into the weekend, ensuring another prolonged stretch of chilly, much below normal temperatures.

Wednesday – ahead of what will a dry cold front passing through, high temperatures may be able to climb to just about the freezing mark under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – once the cold front moves offshore, an area of low pressure will strengthen, but remain well offshore of the area. However, precipitation may still make its way over the region, especially the far eastern areas. There’ll be a chance for snow flurries further west in the city. Temperatures will be back in the mid-20s again in the wake of that cold front.

Friday – clearing skies will be accompanied by stagnant cold temperatures with highs again in the mid-20s.

Saturday – as you’ll se below, a strong 1040mb area of high pressure will be parked over the Ohio Valley will be responsible for the sunny, but cold temperatures through at least Saturday night. Highs Saturday may approach 30ºF. Normal highs for this time of the year are closer to 40ºF.Looking Ahead

814temp.new — Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day temperature outlook for March 4th to March 10th, with our region in an area expected to experience below normal temperatures.

The beginning of next week looks to feature a fairly active pattern, with two storm systems passing through, one on Monday, and another on Wednesday. With the current track of the second storm, it looks like we are going to be on the south side of the low pressure center. This would allow for warmer air to wrap into the area. We could top 40ºF again, but the tradeoff will be a slushy, wet day maybe with some mixed precipitation to start. Once this second storm passes through, we return to cold temperatures once again.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 16, 2015

February 16, 2015Climate, Freezing Rain, NYC, Snow, Weather Updatearctic air, arctic airmass, cold, cold front, extreme cold, freezing rain, high pressure, low pressure, snow, weather, winter weatherLei Zhao

Sunday night’s lows were the coldest of the year thus far, indicative of the coldest airmass to hit the area in recent memory. Again, according to climatology, the last time New York City itself hit a low of zero was in January 1994. Unfortunately, the cold snap does not show any signs of abating during the week, although the first half of the week will see daytime high temperatures in the mid-upper 20s as opposed to the teens. We’ll finish the week off back into the teens before a warmup to above freezing with an approaching storm system this weekend. Behind that – you guessed it, another round of arctic air and abnormally cold temperatures.

Rest of today – cold and overcast, with high temperatures not even getting to 20 in the city. Snow should begin falling overnight, with generally light accumulations by daybreak.

Tuesday – slightly warmer with high temperatures in the mid 20s, but also with a chance for snow as a storm system now dumping snow across a vast swath of the South passes well to the south of us. We could still end up picking up 2-5″ of snow in the city, with higher amounts along the south facing shores of Long Island and minimal accumulation north of I-84.

Wednesday – a weak cold front will pass through Wednesday, and may give us a small chance for light snow, otherwise, expecting cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid-upper 20s.

Thursday – behind that cold front, we get our next shot of Arctic air, with overnight lows into Thursday struggling to hit 10 in the city, and zero and below in outlying inland areas. Daytime highs will only be in the mid-teens despite ample sun. Thursday night, we might get another shot at low temperatures hitting zero in the city, with lows below zero across most inland locations.

Friday – basically a repeat of Thursday, sunny but with brutally cold temperatures in the mid-teens.

Over the weekend – watching for the development of a storm system that could bring some wintry mix/freezing rain to the area, but finally give us a break from below freezing temperatures.

More Cold on Tap to End February

After the weekend storm, we get yet another reinforcing blast of Arctic air to end the month of February. Below, you’ll see the Climate Prediction Center‘s 8-14 day outlook spanning February 23 – March 1. We’re in a region with a greater than 60% probability of experiencing below average temperatures for this period.

Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook for Feb 23 - Mar 1 — Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook for Feb 23 – Mar 1

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 12, 2015

February 12, 2015NYC, Snow, Weather Update, Weekendarctic, cold, cold front, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, snow, snow showers, weather, wind chill, winter weatherLei Zhao

The main headline for the upcoming weekend and into next week will be the very cold airmass that will be spreading over the region, bringing with it what will likely be the coldest temperatures we’ve seen thus far this year. The coldest period over this stretch will be overnight Sunday into Monday, when low temperatures in the city could touch zero. If that does happen, it would be the first time the city has hit zero or below since January of 1994, according to National Weather Service records!

Friday – there will be a noticeable difference in daytime temperatures versus today. High temperatures are going to struggle to even hit the upper teens in the city, once the cold front responsible for the off and on flurries today passes through tonight. Overnight lows will again be in the low teens in the city, and colder in outlying suburbs.

Saturday – another clipper-type system will move quickly through the area on Saturday, setting off a period of snow showers that could end up dropping 1-2″ across the region. High temperatures will warm up slightly – if you can call a high near 30 a warm up! Overnight, winds will begin to pick up, with wind chills between -5ºF to -15ºF.

Sunday – a stiff northwest wind will pick up. The clipper system that passes Saturday will rapidly intensify as it moves over the Atlantic. This will set up an increasingly tight pressure gradient with a high pressure center over the Great Lakes. This setup will swing the door wide open for Arctic air to blast into the region. High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid-teens in the city, and overnight lows may be as cold as zero or just below zero. Regardless, the sustained northwest winds will yield wind chill values between -15ºF to -25ºF.

Monday, President’s Day – sunny skies, but that Arctic airmass will still be very much in control, with temperatures struggling to hit 20.

Tuesday – a return to temperatures near freezing again with an approaching low pressure system that will deliver our next chance at precipitation late Tuesday into Wednesday.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 3, 2015

February 3, 2015NYC, Snow, Storms, Weather Updatearctic front, cold, cold front, nyc weather, nyc wx, stationary front, weather, winter, winter weather, wxLei Zhao

The low overall snowfall totals for NYC yesterday wasn’t so much a problem as the significant icing that resulted from an extended period of freezing rain. Ironically, a week the city government took criticism for shutting down the transit system for blockbuster blizzard that did not come to pass here, it was 1/4″ coating of ice that wreaked havoc on the entire transit system (the hours long complete suspension of the 7 train was an extreme example of this). We do get a couple more shots at snow, once tomorrow night into Thursday, and then again during the weekend, but at this time neither event looks to be nearly as high impact as what we’ve experienced the last two weeks.

Wednesday – will be comparatively mild in the context of the rest of the week and the weather we’ve had recently. High temperatures may actually even hit 40 (slightly above normal). However, as a cold front approaches from the west, we’ll have an increasing chance for snow showers, which maybe mixed with rain at the coast during the earlier part of the evening.

Thursday – chance for snow showers continues along the vicinity of the frontal boundary as it passes over us. Following the passage of that cold front, temperatures take a serious drop as northwest winds allow for Arctic air to make a comeback into the area. Lows overnight Thursday could be as low as the single digits for the city and below zero for outlying suburbs. Coupled with a northwest wind of 15-20mph, this would produce dangerously cold wind chill values.

Generally low snowfall totals expected across the region from this event

Friday – high pressure builds in briefly for Friday, giving us the only guaranteed dry day through the forecast period. It will still be cold with highs only in the low 20s.

Saturday – an arctic front will be approaching during the day Saturday, and ahead of the front, we’ll actually about normal temperatures in the upper 30s due to southwest flow. Clouds build in and the chance for snow showers builds during the later part of the day into the overnight.

Sunday – the arctic front mentioned above moves over us but then it looks like it will stall in our vicinity for an extended period from Sunday into Monday. High temperatures will cool to around freezing in the wake of that frontal passage.

At this time, it’s too early to know exactly how much snow we would pick up. It does appear that the precipitation with this system will be generally on the lighter side, except as the low pressure center depicted over southern Illinois in the graphic below approaches the coast. Once it arrives just west of the coast, it could draw in some moisture off the ocean as the counterclockwise cyclonic flow around the eastern periphery of the low induces an extended period of onshore flow (like a sea breeze, except in this case, the air over the water is actually warmer than it is over the snowpack on the land). If this onshore flow is robust enough, it could warm coastal areas up enough to get some rain out of the storm.

You can see the distinct separation between warm and cold airmasses demarcated by the stationary front depicted in the image above - the front separates the areas with the blue dotted lines from the areas of the warm dotted lines. — You can see the distinct separation between warm and cold airmasses demarcated by the stationary front depicted in the image above – the front separates the areas with the blue dotted lines from the areas of the warm dotted lines.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 15, 2014

January 15, 2015NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendcoastal low, cold front, high pressure, low pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, pressure gradient, warm front, weather, weekend weather, wxLei Zhao

We end this week off with a windy day Friday, followed by an intrusion of cold air on Saturday before a warmup Sunday that should be accompanied by some rain during the day, then possibly a mix of rain and snow Sunday night. Some chance of snow persists into early Monday.

Friday – a cold front dropping from Canada will tighten the pressure gradient ahead of it, bringing with it breezy west-northwest winds between 15-25mph during the day tomorrow. High temperatures will be about normal in the upper 30s, but with wind chill values only in the 20s.

Saturday – subsequent to the passage of that cold front, we get another shot of cold, arctic air, with temperatures on Saturday struggling to even reach 30 in the city, and only in the 20s elsewhere.

Sunday – a low pressure system will be moving steadily northeast into Quebec by Sunday. This storm system will have a trailing cold front as well as a preceding warm front. We should enter the warm sector behind the warm front passing over us Sunday. This will allow for temperatures to rise into the mid-40s (possibly higher in a few spots). There will be a transfer of energy to a secondary low pressure center which is forecast to form off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will result in the chance for us to get a few periods of moderate-heavy rain on Sunday, especially in the afternoon hours. As the coastal low moves off to the northeast, rain should taper down during the overnight hours into Monday, and temperatures will be cold enough to support a chance of rain/snow mix.

Monday – snow showers should end early Monday. High temperatures will be about average for this time of year, in the upper 30s.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 12, 2015

January 12, 2015NYC, Rain, Weather Updatearctic high, cold front, high pressure, nyc weather, nyc weather forecast, nyc wx, weather, wxLei Zhao

We start this week with a mixed bag of precipitation, currently rain, but eventually back to a wintry mix before ending. The rest of the week will be dry, with colder days on tap for the mid-week period before another warming trend to end things off.

Tuesday – once the storm system that’s responsible for today’s rain and mixed precipitation moves away, a cold front will usher in a strong area of high pressure that will dominate our weather for the mid-week period. This high pressure area will allow cold Canadian air to flow into the area from the north. High temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark, while a steady north wind will ensure wind chills in the teens.

Wednesday – will be similar to Tuesday in terms of sensible weather with highs in the low 30s, and partly sunny skies.

Thursday – another partly sunny day, but with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid-upper 30s, near normal.

Friday – should be essentially the same as Thursday with highs again in the mid-upper 30s. Doesn’t look like we’ll get any chance for precipitation throughout the end of the week and weekend.

NYC Christmas Weather Update – Dec 24, 2014

December 24, 2014NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendchristmas weather, cold front, gfs, holiday weather, nam, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, warm front, xmas, xmas wx, xmas wx nycLei Zhao

A foggy start to the busy travel day for many will feature periods of locally heavy rain and gusty winds later this morning into the early afternoon. Near record warmth with high temperatures in the low 60s today will give way to cooler but calmer weather going into the holiday weekend before another round of unsettled weather early-mid next week.

Today – foggy conditions will be a prelude to a stormy Christmas Eve. An approaching warm front will move through shortly and allow for a surge of warm air to raise temperatures into the low 60s. Along with this, there looks to be a period of widespread showers in the late morning and early afternoon hours. Afterwards, there should be a lull in the rain before a second round of showers and possibly scattered thunderstorms associated with this storm system’s trailing cold front moves in. Winds will pick up ahead of and then behind this cold front. If you are traveling either by air or car, the latter part of the day could see some weather related disruptions and delays. Overnight lows will be very mild near 50.

NAM model stimulated radar image for 2PM EST, 12/24/2014

Christmas Day – conditions improve dramatically during the day in the wake of the cold front. Any lingering showers should end early in the morning with rapidly clearing skies accompanied by a gusty west wind. High temperatures in the mid-50s will actually be set early in the morning with temperatures dropping steadily during the day to the upper 40s later in the afternoon.

Friday – fair weather continues as an area of high pressure builds over the Eastern US. Partly cloudy with a mild high near 50.

Saturday – much the same as Friday with high pressure still in control. High again near 50.

Sunday – mostly cloudy with a chance of rain, slightly cooler with highs in the mid-40s. A frontal boundary may stall just south of us, setting up conditions for an extended period of unsettled weather next week.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 20, 2014

November 20, 2014NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, mid-latitude cyclone, new york city weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc wx, occluded front, thanksgiving nyc weather, thanksgiving weather, warm front, warm sector, weather, weekend weather, wxLei Zhao

We got a break from the arctic chill briefly today, but temperatures will fall again for Friday as a cold front currently sitting on top of us passes through. High pressure builds in Friday allowing for sunny conditions, but temperatures will still not be that warm. A big warm up is in store for the second half of the weekend and we could be hitting a rainy low-mid 60s by Monday.

Friday – following the passage of a cold front sitting over us now, skies will clear up overnight tonight and allow for excellent radiational cooling, so low temperatures will be generally in the upper 20s in the city. High pressure works its way in Friday, but with the influence of a cool west wind, the high temperature will probably still only be near 40.

Saturday – another nice day, with plenty of sun, and temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid-40s, but the big warm up won’t occur until Sunday.

Sunday – a low pressure center with its origins over the Texas Panhandle will be moving northeast towards our area. A warm front will rotate around in front of it, allowing for the influx of a comparatively very warm and moist airmass into the area. The chance of rain will increase steadily along with cloud cover throughout the day Sunday such that by the late evening, showers will be likely. High temperatures should be in the mid-50s.

gfs_namer_081_1000_850_thick — Significant warm up ahead for the latter half of the weekend going into early next week

Monday – as the forecast map from the Weather Prediction Center below shows, the low pressure system from the map above is forecast to intensify significantly as it pulls northeast. This is a classic, mature mid-latitude cyclone with an occluded low and front (purple line extending from the center of the low), a cold front, and a warm front. The warm front will rotate through first, allowing us to get into the warm sector, where there will be plenty of energy and moisture for rain, which could occur in periods throughout Monday. High temperatures will be balmy in the mid-60s.

Thanksgiving Storm?

The chance of a significant Thanksgiving storm is decreasing, though not completely nil. Once the cold front above passes, we’ll see a return to cooler temperatures in the low 50s. It’s worth mentioning that the set up behind the cold should once again favor lake effect snow, so if you’re traveling to any of the usual snow belt areas around the Great Lakes, be prepared.

LZ | Weather

Weather updates & posts for NYC region