Tag Archives: cold front

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 28, 2020

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Moisture associated with the remnants of Laura are set to bring soaking rain starting the weekend. A cold front eventually clears things out by Sunday, which will bring a markedly drier air mass into the region. Temperatures during this period will be generally cooler than at most points this week, in the low-80s. Next week, we could see a return to hotter weather towards mid-week.

Rest of today – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Chances for rain and thunderstorms later in the day along a warm front that’s forecast to lift through during the day. Overnight lows in the low-70s with rain chances continuing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. By this time, a warm front will have lifted through and the remnants of Laura will be contributing moisture to rains over the region.

Saturday – Laura, which wrought serious devastation over the Gulf Coast, will make itself felt on Saturday, contributing tropical moisture to rain that will impact the area. This moisture will contribute to very high precipitable water content > 2″, which could lead to localized flooding. Mostly cloudy with rain possible throughout the day. Stronger storms are possible in the afternoon. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with rain chances diminishing as a cold front sweeps through.

  • GFS model precipitable water content valid 8AM Saturday. Very moist values of > 2.00″ are possible.
  • Weather Prediction Center’s analysis of possible rainfall totals Saturday. Parts of the region could see easily see 0.75-1.00″.

Sunday – by the morning, the trailing cold front associated with the primary low bringing this rain should’ve already pushed through. This will lead to a much drier, cooler day, with high temperatures peaking around 80ºF and plenty of sun. Winds may be gusty at times from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s due to good radiational cooling with clear skies and winds calming.

Monday – even cooler than Sunday with high temperatures in the upper-70s, and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2020

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After a rainy, cool weekend, temperatures will rebound into the low-80s as high pressure takes over. This will bring about a week of pleasant, mostly dry weather, with plenty of sun all the way through end of the week. Further afield, we’re watching the tropics for 2 possible tropical storms brewing.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with some potential for a scattered showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through the region later this evening. Timing of these storms hitting the area appears to be around 8-10PM.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Tuesday
  • High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar valid at 9:30PM tonight

Tuesday – behind this cold front, westerly downsloping winds will actually help temperatures rebound into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows continue in the upper-60s.

Thursday – another great day with lots of sun and highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Watching the tropics

Way out in the tropical Atlantic, we have two tropical waves that the National Hurricane Center is keeping tabs on. These two waves could develop into the 12th and 13th named storms of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, which thus far has been breaking records for the fastest forming named storms, beating out the horrific 2005 season that produced Katrina, Wilma, and some storms that had Greek alphabet names.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weekend, Tropical Storm Fay Weather – Jul 10, 2020

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Tropical Storm Fay will bring heavy rain, strong winds, flash flooding to start the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of NYC as well as coastal New Jersey and Connecticut, including all of Long Island. Conditions should start to improve Saturday as Fay continues tracking north and inland. We may even see some sun by Sunday. Temperatures start in the low-80s with the rain and clouds from Fay, but should be warming up upper-80s later on this weekend.

Rest of today – cooler with high temperatures in the low-80s. Windy and rain, with bouts of heavy, tropical downpours. 2-4″ of rain are possible with this storm. Sustained winds could approach tropical storm force (30-40 mph) near Fay’s core if it tracks over us. Otherwise, gusts up to 50 mph are possible. The main threat from Fay is from the heavy rains that could produce flash flooding. Overnight lows in the low-70s with tropical storm conditions still possible as Fay lifts north.

  • National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Storm Fay.
  • Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for Tropical Storm Fay. Note the widespread totals of 2-4″ possible in our region.

Saturday – as Fay lifts north and inland, it will weaken rapidly. Conditions should improve with a spell of dry weather possible before another non-tropical frontal system impacts the area with thunderstorms possible. Temperatures should be warm, in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances diminishing behind the passage of this cold front.

Sunday – we may start off dry with some sun, which could allow temperatures to climb to the low-90s. However, scattered thunderstorms are possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Monday – similar day to Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Partly sunny skies to start and isolated thunderstorms possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 26, 2020

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A warm and potentially stormy start to the weekend on tap with Storm Prediction Center placing the area under slight risk for severe weather Saturday. Temperatures during this period in the upper-80s. Weather improves on Sunday behind a cold front. Next week, a lingering upper low may bring daily chances for rain in the afternoons.

This afternoon – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s with increasing clouds towards daybreak.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
  • Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Saturday, showing the region under slight risk for severe weather.

Saturday – a warm front pushes through early in the morning and some showers could accompany this. Mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-80s. A cold front is forecast to push through later, with a prefrontal trough ahead of it. These will serve as the loci for more organized convective activity. Thunderstorms forming in the warm sector behind the early warm front passage may be able to attain severe limits. The main threat is from damaging winds. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances diminishing early.

Sunday – despite the cold front passage, temperatures stay largely similar to Saturday in the upper-80s due to downsloping winds from the west. With an upper low lingering, isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms may pop up in the late afternoon, mostly sunny otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Monday – mostly sunny though a chance for afternoon pop up showers or thunderstorms persists. High temperatures remain warm in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s. Below, you’ll see GFS forecasts for this upper low continuing to influence our weather going into next week. The tangible impacts for this will be continued chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the week until this upper low finally gets picked back up by primary westerly steering currents and moves offshore.

GFS model 500 mb height and wind. You can see evidence of a persistent upper low that drifts south, then gets cutoff from main steering currents, and remains largely stationary, even retrograding west during next week over the Northeast.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 22, 2020

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The first official week of summer brings us warm temperatures in the upper-80s (low-90s interior). Early in the week, there will be chances each day for scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly over inland areas. South facing shorelines should enjoy cooler temperatures with the possibility of sea breezes developign. A cold front passes Wednesday, bringing chances for more organized precipitation. Behind this, skies should clear up but temps remain warm.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 90ºF. Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Coverage would be spotty at best but with plenty of moisture available, any storms could produce heavy rain. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday.

Tuesday – similar to today, with high temperatures peaking near 90ºF and mostly sunny skies to start, then more clouds and some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – a cold front approaches from the west and brings us a better chance for organized showers and thunderstorms later in the day. These storms may be weakening as they hit the area if they arrive late in the day with sunlight diminishing. High temperatures again around 90ºF. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model 500 mb height, relative velocity, valid for 2PM Thursday.

Thursday – behind the cold front, skies should clear up as high pressure builds. However, temperatures will remain warm in the mid-80s with downsloping westerly winds. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 5, 2020

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We have a muggy, strormy, and warm start to the weekend with temps in the 80s. Tomorrow, a cold front sweeps through in the afternoon. This will bring relief from the humidity and heat. High pressure builds in going into next week with temperatures back to seasonable ranges in the 70s. We should see an extended period of dry, sunny weather as a result.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy overall with high temperatures in the low-80s. Some shortwaves and surface troughs moving through will serve as the focal point for thunderstorm development. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere today to tap, so storms could produce heavy rainfall, and if enough hit the same locations via training/backbuilding there is potential for localized flooding. Overnight lows in the upper-60s as storm chances continue with fog possible late.

GFS model precipitable water at 8PM today, with values as high as 2.00″ around NYC.

Saturday – clouds diminishing during the day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. A cold front moves through in the afternoon, but will not have the benefit of having as much moisture as today to tap into. Still, an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Downsloping winds behind the cold front should help dry and warm things up. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Sunday – high pressure starts to build and skies remain mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday – high pressure continues to build and provide us another sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 15, 2020

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We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.

Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Monday – rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather

Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.

  • National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
  • GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
  • GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 1, 2020

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April ended with another stormy week with plenty of rain. May starts of grey Friday, followed by a spectacular day Saturday. Rain enters the picture again Sunday. Behind this next storm system, things will cool off again. This will lead temperatures to continue their cool trend throughout most of next week. During this period high temperatures will range at least 5ºF below the upper-60s that are normal for this time of the year.

Rest of today – the slow moving storm that began impacting us yesterday continues to influence weather today. Scattered showers wrapping around the backside of the low responsible for this storm could still occur. Temperatures should generally be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-50s as the storm finally exits.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this storm, bringing the best day of the frorecast period with high temperatures expected to top out around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Sunday – just like last weekend, the sunny, dry weather barely lasts before the next storm moves in. This will be a weaker, and faster moving storm so rain should be on the lighter side. Currently expecting most of the day Sunday to be dry with clouds building and high temperatures still warm in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Monday – once this low clears our region, winds shift to the north and a cooler air mass works its way in. Skies clear with temperatures falling back the low-60s. Overnight lows only in the upper-40s. This cool trend looks set to continue for the duration of next week. Though after a week with high temperatures in the 50s, the low-60s looks pretty good.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 6-10. Below average temperatures are indicated as very likely for much of the Eastern US
  • This temperature trend is borne out in the GFS models 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies. This chart is valid for 8AM Tuesday

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 24, 2020

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Two coastal lows bring will rain today and Sunday. Saturday ends up being a nice day in between with some high pressure building briefly. The second coastal storm coming on Sunday drags into Monday bringing rain and cool temperatures. Throughout this period, temperatures will range at least 5ºF below normal. This below normal temperature trend, largely a continuation of this week, looks set to continue well into next week.

Rest of today – high temperatures in the low-50s with cloudy conditions and periods of steady rain off and on for much of the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain winding down and clouds clearing.

Saturday – sunny skies and high pressure should allow temperatures to climb to about 60ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – unfortunately, the dry weather doesn’t last as a second storm moves in for Sunday, bringing yet more rain and cool, cloudy weather. High temperatures topping out only in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Monday – high temperatures still suppressed in the low-50s as this second storm lifts to the east. Overnight lows in the low-40s. Going into next week, temperature will stay below normal, anywhere between 5-10ºF. Later in the week, it appears a potent, closed 500 mb low will be the culprit for keeping temperatures down (and bringing yet more rain to us)

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Apr 29-May 3, showing below average temperatures continuing to affect much of the northeastern quadrant of the US
  • GFS 500 mb temperature, height and winds for 2AM Thursday, Apr 30. A closed 500 mb low is forecast to move over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario – this will be partly responsible for cooler than normal temperatures.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 16, 2020

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An extended period of cool temperatures continues for the rest of the week into the weekend. During this period, highs will generally 10ºF below average. A weak storm passes through Friday night into Saturday bringing the chance for rain. Temperatures finally warm up to start next week though this may not last.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high pressure building. High temperatures in the low-50s. Cold overnight lows in the mid-30s with a cool air mass in place. If skies remain clear and winds decouple overnight, we could see even colder overnight temperatures.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Friday

Friday – with a cold start to the day, high temperatures will be hindered around 50ºF. Clouds increase as a low pressure center moves towards us. Rain chances increase later in the day and into the overnight. Overnight lows around 40ºF

Saturday – rain ending early, as the storm system slides east of us. High temperatures hampered by this early rain and clouds, reaching into the mid-50s. Overnight lows around 40ºF.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for April 21-25, showing chances for below normal temperatures in the Northeast

Sunday – high temperatures start warming up to around 60ºF. Overnight lows will likewise warm into the upper-40s.