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Hurricane Irma Update – 9AM Sep 9, 2017

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Overnight, Irma made landfall on the Cuban Keys off the north shore of Cuba. Land interaction with Cuba has eroded Irma’s circulation to the point where it is now a marginal Category 4 storm containing 130 mph peak sustained winds. However, it would be unwise for anyone in Florida to dismiss this storm for reasons discussed below.

Current Situation

Irma has been downgraded to a marginal Category 4 storm with peak sustained winds at 130 mph. Despite only barely touching the Cuban coast, it’s clear from satellite imagery that land interaction has disrupted Irma’s circulation. The eye is no longer clearly visible. The western side of the storm looks ragged.

Headlines

  • Track forecasts continue to shift slightly westward from overnight. This lowers the risk for a direct hit by the eye of the storm in the Miami area. However, since the strongest winds in a hurricane in the northern hemisphere occur on the east side of the storm, Miami can still expect strong wind impacts.
  • Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the eye on each side. Tropical storm force winds are 400 miles in diameter with this massive storm.
  • The risk to the west coast of Florida continues to increase. Southwest Florida could see the worst storm surge with surge of 6-12′ forecast.
  • It is not out of the question that Tampa Bay could take a direct hit from the eye of this storm at Category 3 strength.
  • Irma could still re-intensify over the very warm waters of the Florida Straits once it moves away from Cuba.
  • Tornadoes in the bands of Irma as it moves north will pose a limited but dangerous threat.

Forecast Track

The high pressure over the central Atlantic that has steered Irma to this point continues to remain strong enough to keep it on west-northwest motion along the northern coast of Cuba. Based on this latest track forecast, it is possible that Tampa Bay takes a direct hit from Irma. Portions of the Florida Panhandle are also at increasing risk. This track also enhances the risk of inland impacts in Georgia and southeastern states.

Forecast Intensity

Irma has been weakened by interaction with the north coast of Cuba. It is now a marginal Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph. While some further weakening is possible, once Irma emerges over the very warm waters of the Florida Straits, weakening should cease. It could even re-intensify over these waters before making landfall. Keep in mind that Category 3 winds would still be very serious.

Uncertainties

  • Any further motion into Cuba would mean further degradation to the storm’s core and circulation which could result in more weakening.
  • There is a window for some possible re-strengthening over the Florida Straits.
  • An eyewall replacement cycle could still occur bringing fluctuations to the strength of the storm.
  • The exact timing of Irma’s turn north is still not certain. When it turns north will have large implications for who sees the worst direct wind impacts from the eye of the storm.

Hurricane Irma Update – 5PM Sep 8, 2017

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This update is based on information from the National Hurricane Center’s 5PM advisory on Hurricane Irma.

Current Situation

Hurricane Irma continues to persist as a large and powerful Category 4 storm with peak sustained winds of 155 mph. Its eye still appears somewhat ragged, suggesting that it’s still undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. This will continue to lead to fluctuations in its strength.

Headlines

  • Track forecast continues to edge westward. This decreases the risk Irma poses in any direct way to Georgia and South Carolina coastal areas, though storm surge threat here is still significant.
  • The threat of a direct hit on Miami is decreasing. However, a track to the west of Miami would result in the South Florida region being on the more dangerous eastern side of the storm.
  • The risk of devastating impacts to the west coast of Florida is increasing.
  • Irma’s eye may be moving very close to or make landfall on the northern Cuban coast. The threat of catastrophic wind and storm surge damage to Cuba’s north shore is increasing.
  • Risk of damage from flooding rains and tornadoes also exists. See this 1-5 day map of possible rainfall totals:

Forecast Track

Forecast models continue to edge slightly westward on a track for Irma and as such the National Hurricane Center has also adjusted its latest forecast slightly more west.

Forecast Intensity

National Hurricane Center forecasts continue to call for Irma to make landfall somewhere in South Florida as a very dangerous and powerful Category 4 storm. Outside of possible internal fluctuations and interaction with Cuba’s high terrain, there are no other inhibiting factors on Irma maintaining Category 4 strength of even possibly intensifying. Irma is entering an area of very warm sea surface temperatures with basically no mid-level wind shear.

 

Hurricane Irma Special Update – Sep 7, 2017

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This is one of an upcoming series of special posts dedicated to Hurricane Irma. I’m hoping these posts will keep those of you who are either in areas at risk or have friends and family there informed and prepared as this historic storm bears down on the US mainland.

Current Situation

Hurricane Irma remains an impressive Category 5 storm packing sustained wind speeds of 175 mph. It is nearing the Turks and Caicos Islands as of this time.

Headlines

  • The threat Irma poses to South Florida as a strong Category 4 storm continues to increase
  • There is a risk to the Georgia and South Carolina Coasts. This risk would increase if there’s eastward movement of the storm track, as was the case in previous track forecasts.
  • Major impacts are expected to the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas archipelagos
  • The threat to the northern coast of Cuba remains high. Hurricane watches have been upgraded to warnings.
  • This is a large hurricane – the larger the size of the storm, the larger the storm surge it can generate. Even if the eye of the storm misses Florida to the east, the entire state could still feel the impacts of tropical storm and hurricane force winds.

Forecast Track

Here is the National Hurricane Center’s latest official forecast with a 5-day cone of uncertainty reflecting the spread in forecast models. Models have been wavering between a more westerly and easterly track in the past 24 hours which would have big implications (see below).

Here are some actual forecast model outputs on the storm’s track.

 

GFS model run showing Irma very close to or making landfall on the Miami area on Sunday at 8AM

 

Forecast Intensity

Unless the core of the storm interacts with the high terrain of Cuba by making landfall on it, it is unlikely that Irma would weaken significantly.

Wind shear is expected to remain low at the mid-levels, which means basically zero disruption to the core of the storm. Sea surface temperatures are very warm in the Florida Straits and Bahamas. This will support the storm maintaining itself as a very powerful hurricane.

Irma is expected to approach South Florida as a dangerous Category 4 storm (sustained winds over 130 mph). Even with some interaction with Florida, Georgia and South Carolina could still expect a strong Category 2 (sustained winds > 95 mph) or a Category 3 (sustained winds > 115 mph).

 

Uncertainties

The critical component of forecast track uncertainty is the timing and degree of influence a mid-level trough (the dip in that solid black line in the image below) on initiating Irma to begin a turn to the north as it rounds the western periphery of the Bermuda high that has been steering it thus far. The effect of a mid-level trough is both to weaken the Bermuda high and also to exert a pull on Irma to the north.

 

The timing of Irma’s northward turn is significant as an earlier turn would result in a more easterly track, and a later turn would result in a more westerly track. A small deviation either way could either spare an area from a direct hit by the devastating eye of the storm or bring it right into the eye.

  • A track to the east that takes the center of the storm away from South Florida would result in a stronger impact on the Georgia/South Carolina coasts
  • A track to the west would reduce the possible dangers to Georgia and South Carolina but increase the threat to the entire Florida Peninsula. This would still result in serious impacts to South Florida.
  • Another factor to consider is that landfall on Cuba and any significant interaction of the core of the storm with the high mountains of Cuba would result in a weaker storm affecting Florida and other US locales

 

Irma’s Impacts Thus Far

Overnight into today, Hurricane Irma made landfall on several small Leeward Islands including Barbuda and Saint-Martin/Sint-Maarten. These islands took a direct hit from the eyewall of Irma, which packed sustained winds of 185 mph. This resulted in catastrophic damage to Barbuda that the prime minister described as rendering the island barely habitable. Below, you can watch some footage captured by a camera at Princess Juliana International Airport located in Sint-Maarten, the Dutch side of Saint Martin as the eyewall impacted that location.

As on Barbuda, scenes of widespread damage were to be found on Sint-Maarten as well. Here’s an infrared satellite image of Irma as its eye swallowed Anguilla and Saint-Martin/Sint-Maarten last night:

Hurricane Irma has smashed an all-time record for longest duration of winds at 185 mph in the satellite era (1970s or so onward) with these winds lasting for 36 hours. This is truly incredible considering that the strongest tropical cyclones are typically found in the Western Pacific where these storms have ample time over warm water to grow.

NYC Weather + Hurricane Matthew Update – Oct 3, 2016

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After a gloomy, but appropriately fall-like start October, this week looks like it will bring much improved weather. Temperatures are expected to be just below or at normal for the majority of the week. The big question mark in the long-term for weather in our region is the progress of Hurricane Matthew, which could impact the area this coming weekend.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy to start with gradual clearing and high temperatures in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-60s. High pressure anchored over southeastern Canada will give us an extended period of nice weather.

Thursday – sunny, warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s.

Friday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-70s.

Hurricane Matthew an Increasing Threat to the US East Coast

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Hurricane Matthew as captured by one of NOAA’s geostationary satellites on Monday, Oct 3 at 5PM EDT.

Hurricane Matthew poses an imminent and possibly catastrophic threat to Haiti, and portions of Eastern Cuba. Heavy rains from rain bands associated with the storm have already begun falling over Hispaniola and have hit Jamaica as well. Matthew is a potent Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds at 140mph. It is expected to bring rainfall of 8-20″ across the region, with some places receive 7-11′ of storm surge.

Matthew has displayed a number of anomalous characteristics that have defied forecasters and experts best efforts at predicting its intensity. Matthew underwent a period of rapid intensification, going from tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane with 160mph winds in just under 36 hours. This puts Matthew in an exclusive circle of just a handful of storms in recorded history that have accomplished this feat. Even more amazing, Matthew underwent this rapid intensification in the face of strong southwesterly wind shear that would typically stall a storm’s growth or weaken it.

During much of its life, a large area of intense thunderstorms has accompanied Matthew, at times exceeding the actual storm center in size. Scientists are uncertain as yet what role this feature had in Matthew’s unusual intensification. This feature has been impacting Hispaniola.

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Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Matthew as a strong Category 4, note the impressive area of intense thunderstorms east of the storm’s core.

Outlook for Hurricane Matthew

Matthew is expected to either skirt the extreme southwest peninsula of Haiti or make landfall there, then perhaps a secondary landfall on Eastern Cuba. The more interaction Matthew’s circulation has with the high terrain of these regions, the weaker it will get before entering the wide open, and warm waters of the Bahamas. It is expected to maintain major hurricane status (maximum sustained winds greater than 115mph) throughout most of the 4-5 forecast period.

Since even earlier today, major forecast models have come into much better agreement about the path of Matthew in the longer term. The unfortunate news is that the models have settled on solutions that push Matthew further to the west than previous runs. This dramatically increases the chances of a landfall somewhere on the Southeastern US, with Florida also in the range of possible tracks. Should this scenario unfold, we would be spared from a direct landfall here, but would still receive a storm of considerable strength with strong winds and heavy rains possible.

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