As many of you woke up this morning, you were probably wondering, what happened here? This storm seemed like a dud. True, the snowfall totals in and around NYC were lower than initially forecast, but portions of the area did get slammed with over 20″ of snow. To put it simply – as I had laid out in the caveats from the last post, slight changes in track of this storm dramatically altered the placement of mesoscale banding features, hence leading to a sharp cutoff in snowfall totals from east to west.

Snowfall Totals

Looking at this snowfall totals map, you can easily make out the line that demarcates where the heaviest snow bands stopped their westward march. We got what appears to be around 6-8″ in the city, but just east of us in Nassau the totals jump to 12″ and then just east of that in Suffolk we see 20″+ totals.

On a larger scale, you can see the areas that got the highest snowfall totals, corresponding to where the heaviest bands of snow were able to pass over.

Forecasters are saying that the storm tracked further east than they expected by about 50-75 miles, which literally would have meant the difference from us having 6-8″ snowfall totals here in the city to easily 12-18″+. Now before we all go blaming them for a dud forecast (that some are already saying wasted taxpayer money), there are a couple things to consider:

1. Forecasters utilize a suite of different computer models to come up with these forecasts, in this case they favored the NAM (North American Mesoscale) and ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) over the GFS (Global Forecast System), UKMET (United Kingdom Meteorology), and Canadian models. There were specific reasons for doing so, one of which is based on forecasters’ experience with these types of systems and which models have historically done a better job with them. ECMWF often does a very good job of modeling strong cyclonic systems like this (and is often favored in forecasting tropical cyclones). In this case, the NAM and ECMWF had the storm moving just far west enough to put us on the cusp of those high snowfall totals.
2. Mesoscale (medium scale) banding features are notoriously difficult to forecast in these types of storms. The exact position, orientation, and movement of these banding features is often not known until the storm is already ongoing. This is due to a number of complex atmospheric interactions that are responsible for these features forming. To take another example, the Storm Prediction Center can forecast that severe thunderstorms are likely over a certain area 2-3 days out. However, it is exceedingly difficult even the day of to know which towns will get hit by individual storm cells/tornadoes, etc. Despite advances in supercomputing power, forecast skill and accuracy, and understanding of meteorology, these mesoscale events remain challenging to get right even for the most experienced forecaster. So while the general public can say, “I told you so”, I’d challenge any one of them to forecast the next Nor’easter, and the one after that, and so on, and get them right with more skill than a straight up guess.

Anyway, since we all got the day off (the political response to this storm is a whole other debate beyond the scope of this blog), forget about the forecast being a dud and go out to take advantage of a day off!