Partly sunny start to the week, highs around 60ºF. Cold front coming tomorrow bringing showers with highs in the mid-60s. Behind this front, cooler temps in the mid-50s through mid-week as Canadian high pressure builds in. Cooler than normal trend set to continue into the weekend and early next week.
Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures around 60ºF. Mostly cloudy overnight with lows around 50ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for Tuesday at 8 AM. An approaching cold front will bring a chance for showers. Behind this front, cooler temperatures will prevail.
Tuesday – mostly cloudy, chance of showers, with high temperatures in the mid-60s ahead of an approaching cold front. Following the cold front, lows will drop back to the upper-40s.
Wednesday – mostly sunny with high pressure building behind the aforementioned cold front. Cooler, with high temperatures in mid-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s!
Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 temperature outlook valid for early next week. The cooler than normal trend looks somewhat likely to continue into this time frame.
Thursday– another mostly sunny but cooler than average day with high temps in the mid-50s and overnight lows only around 40ºF.
Rain clearing early today, highs in the low-70s. Slight drop to the mid-60s tomorrow, then a big warm up Thursday ahead of a cold front, highs in the mid-70s. Some thunderstorms possible with this front. Temps back off into the mid-60s to end the week with mostly sunny skies.
Rest of today – showers passing through the next couple of hours. Skies should clear out steadily during the rest of the day. Temperatures should warm up nicely into the low-70s as a result. Overnight lows around 50ºF
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for Wednesday at 2 AM. The cold front bringing us rain today will return north as a warm front.
Wednesday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s as the cold front that passes through today returns north as a warm front. Temps could go higher if the warm front passes early in the day. Little moisture or lift is available with this warm front so not expecting rain at this time. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Thursday – with the region in the warm sector of a parent low moving into eastern Canada, temperatures are set to soar into the mid-70s. Inland areas could see 80s. These temperatures would be nearly 20ºF above normal for this time of year. A cold front will sweep through later in the day and could bring some thunderstorms. Overnight lows around 50ºF with showers passing.
GFS model 850 mb temperature anomalies at 5 PM on Thursday, showing a strong +8ºC anomaly at that time. This should translate to much above average high temperatures at the surface.
Friday– high temperatures moderating back down to the mid-60s with sunny skies after the cold front. These temps are still about 10ºF above normal. Overnight lows around 50ºF.
Sunny and mild Friday in the low-60s followed by a seasonable weekend with highs in the mid to upper 50s. This will be punctuated by passing showers Saturday. Return to sunnier skies Sunday, though isolated showers still possible due to shortwaves/disturbances rotating around a closed upper low moving slowly into Quebec. Warm up next week into the mid-60s.
Rest of today – above average warmth with high temps topping around or just above 60ºF. Sunny skies giving way to increasing clouds overnight. Lows in the upper-40s with scattered showers developing.
GFS model 500 mb height and wind, showing a closed low at this level centered over Ontario/Northern Michigan. This feature will only progress northeastwards slowly over the weekend. Shortwaves rotating around its base will bring us chances for showers.
Saturday – cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-50s and chances for scattered showers, esp. early in the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with skies clearing up somewhat.
Sunday – mostly sunny skies but with scattered showers possible at times. High temps in the mid-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for Monday at 8 AM. A ridge of surface high pressure is forecast to lie over us.
Monday– warming up with high temperatures back in the low-60s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-40s.
Surge of spring-like warmth today ahead of a cold front. Showers and gusty winds accompany the passage of the front and usher in a much colder air mass Tuesday. High temps dropping from mid-60s today to low-40s tomorrow. Wed, we could get clipped by outer precip bands from an offshore low, with enough cold air in place to cause some snow flurries.
Rest of today – unseasonably warm and mostly cloudy with highs rising to the low-mid 60s. Breezy southerly winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts. Overnight lows dropping rapidly into the mid-30s behind the passage of a cold front, bringing showers around 7-9 PM tonight.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh simulated radar valid at 7 PM this evening, depicting a narrow band of fast moving showers approaching the city attendant to the passing cold front.
Tuesday – much colder with high temperatures topping out in the low-40s. Clearing skies, partly cloudy. Overnight lows in the low-30s.
Wednesday – snow showers likely, with possible light accumulations up to 1″ in the city (more likely on unpaved areas) due to the impact of an offshore storm. The GFS model seems more bullish on colder air/heavier precip while the Euro shows more of a dusting. High temperatures in the mid-30s. Overnight lows in upper-20s.
GFS 24 hour snowfall accumulation ending 7 AM Thursday.
Thursday– mostly sunny with high pressure building briefly in. High temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s with rain chances increasing going into Friday as another storm system approaches from the west.
Thanksgiving Day 2021 for NYC shaping up to be the best weather of the week. High pressure will keep an approaching cold front at bay and provide warm, westerly downsloping winds that should push temperatures into the low-50s. Enjoy it while you can, because gusty rains will follow Thursday night with the cold front, then we’re looking at cold temps going into the weekend in the low-40s.
At the surface, high pressure will still predominate our local weather. This will keep rains at bay, while the shallow pressure gradient around the area will lead to light winds. The Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons will surely be flying high over the first spectators to view them since the pandemic started!
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8 AM Thursday. High pressure will be to our south while a cold front approaches from the west.
Looking at the forecast soundings at 8 AM Thursday, around parade jump off time, we can see that the boundary layer below 3000 feet should be relatively dry and cloud free, but it does appear that a deck of clouds will be in place from that 3000 feet up. Light winds of 5 knots or less are forecast in this case.
GFS forecast soundings for NYC at 8 AM Thursday
Once the cold front makes its passage overnight Thursday and into Friday morning, the mild weather will come to an abrupt end. Winds will pick up due to an increasing pressure gradient between the strengthening parent low associated with the front and high pressure building over central Canada. The winds should be effective at bringing about cold air advection, transporting this colder, drier continental polar airmass towards us over the weekend. This will result in high temperatures only in the low-40s, clearing skies, and wind chills in the 30s.
A brief warmup Tuesday as highs rise into the upper-80s to near 90ºF before a cold front swings through Wednesday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Seasonable and drier conditions behind the front in the mid-80s to end off the week with plenty of sun.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with high pressure briefly building and temperatures rising to 90ºF. Overnight lows dropping into the low-70s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8 AM Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching from the north and west.
Wednesday – partly cloud with a cold front crossing the region during the day. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Thursday – drier, cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
GFS 500 mb temperature, height, and wind for Friday at 8 AM. Heights will drop around a closed low centered over the Canadian Maritimes, leading to seasonable temperatures. Some of the energy rotating around this low could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area.
Friday– high temperatures again in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies and chance of showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
Muggy with thunderstorms rolling through later this afternoon and highs in the upper-70s. The story this weekend is about building heat and humidity. A Bermuda high becomes the dominant feature bringing an extended period of 90ºF+ heat into next week. While this high is anchored in the western Atlantic, we won’t see any appreciable chances for rain at least until later in the week next week.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper-70s. HRRR simulated radar runs this morning consistently signalling the arrival of a line of thunderstorms around 3-4PM this afternoon. Behind these storms, temperatures overnight expected to be in the mid-60s.
HRRR rapid refresh simulated 1-km radar valid 3:30 PM later today showing a cluster/line of thunderstorms moving through the NYC area.
Saturday – sunny with high temperatures much warmer in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s. Humidity will be building as well due to the influence of southwesterly/westerly flow bringing in a warmer and moisture-laden air mass.
Sunday – high temperatures around 90ºF with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness and surface conditions valid 8 PM Sunday. You can see a sprawling high pressure center in the Atlantic. Clockwise anticyclonic flow from the south/southwesterly flow around the periphery of this high will advect hot, humid air towards our area.
Monday– with a Bermuda high still in place, expect high temperatures to once again reach around 90ºF with higher heat index values due to the humidity. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Quite a different picture this weekend versus last weekend. Instead of summer like warmth, temperatures will be 10-20ºF below normal in the 50s-60s Saturday and Sunday. A series of slow moving coastal lows is the culprit, bringing much needed rain, and the most substantial rain since the beginning of the month. Memorial Day looks sunnier with temperatures climbing back towards normal in the 70s.
Rest of today – increasing clouds, high temperature in the mid-upper 60s. Rain begins to arrive towards the late afternoon and continues on right through the overnight hours. Overnight lows dropping to around 50ºF.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8 AM Saturday. A low pressure center moving from the Ohio Valley will elongate with a stationary front extending east-northeast offshore of the region. Waves of low pressure will the move along this boundary this weekend bringing multiple rounds of rain.
Saturday – windy, rainy, and raw, with temperatures only in the mid-50s, which is more typical of March than May. Persistent northeasterly onshore flow with a stationary front positioned south of the region and waves of low pressure moving along it will act to keep things cloudy and cool. Overnight lows again around the 50ºF mark with rain chances backing off but still possible.
Sunday – another low pressure moving along that stationary front will bring more chances for rain particularly early in the day. High temperatures slightly warmer in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness and precipitation type for 11 AM Sunday. Another area of low pressure is depicted impacting the area.
Monday– the unsettled weather finally moves off with a return to sunnier weather. High temperatures Monday should hit the low-70s as a result. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.
Welcome relief from the heat today with high temperatures below normal in the 60s as cool, onshore flow sets up. The warmth returns by mid-week with highs again touching 90ºF by Wednesday. A strong thunderstorm is possible with a cold front passing through that day. Afterwards, temperatures cool but still reach above average highs in the low-80s on Thursday.
Rest of today – partly sunny with gradually increasing sun, high temperatures in the mid-60s with easterly and northeasterly winds shifting towards the southeast. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface analysis for valid 5AM Monday. Overnight, a cold front pushed southwest of the area, allowing for a much cooler air mass to take hold, with easterly onshore flow off the still as yet cold waters of the Atlantic.
Tuesday – warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s and partly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Wednesday – a warm front will pass through and put us in the warm sector of a strong low centered well to our north over Canada. Temperatures are expected to reach around the 90ºF in the city. Later in the day, as a cold front approaches, scattered but possibly strong thunderstorms could roll through. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.
GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for Wednesday at 5PM. We are forecast to see +7ºC anomalies at this level of the atmosphere, corresponding to much above normal temperatures at the surface.
Thursday– skies clear out with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows around 60ºF.
Subtropical Storm Ana
Over the weekend, the first named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, Subtropical Storm Ana, formed over the open waters of the Atlantic northeast of Bermuda. While the storm itself was never a threat to land, it does mark the seventh year in a row that a named storm formed ahead of the formal start of the hurricane season.
GOES satellite imagery showing the circulation of Subtropical Storm Ana
We can’t draw any conclusions from a single storm, but it is worth noting that nearly all major forecast sources including NOAA are calling for a season of above average hurricane activity.
A dramatic warm up in store this weekend with highs climbing into the mid-80s and the 90ºF mark. A couple of scattered chances for thunderstorms come with a weak shortwave Saturday and a cold front passing Sunday. This second front will cool things back to seasonable temperatures in the low-70s to start off next week. Yet another warm spell with 90s is taking shape for mid-week next week!
Rest of today – partly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s in the city as high pressure remains dominant, cooler at the coast with a sea breeze developing. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
GFS model 500 mb height and vorticity for Saturday at 8PM. A shortwave with attendant vorticity is visible across Southern New England stretching west-southwest into PA and OH.
Saturday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s as a warm front pushes through. A chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the interior as a shortwave passes later in the day. Overnight lows quite warm, in the upper-60s, could break records for the warmest minimum temperatures for this day.
Sunday – mostly sunny with high temperatures warming to the 90ºF mark in the city, possibly warmer. Downsloping northwesterly flow should aid this warmup. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible later in the day with a weak cold front approaching. Overnight lows dropping to the low-60s.
GFS model 2-meter above ground temperature and 10-meter above ground temperature for 2 PM Sunday.
Monday– big difference in temperatures with high temperatures back in the low-70s behind the cold front passing on Sunday. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
