Tag Archives: high pressure

NYC Weekend Weather – May 31, 2019

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We’ll get a much needed respite from deluging rains at least for part of the weekend as high pressure initially takes hold of the weather. This should give us two days to start with slightly above average warmth and mostly sunny skies. By Sunday, the next storm system to affect the region will be closing in and we can expect more rain and thunderstorm chances. Timing of this system now appears to clear the area by Monday and result in cooler but sunny conditions starting next week.

Rest of today – early fog has burned off and we’re in line to have a nice day with sunny skies and high temperatures topping out in the low-80s except at the immediate coast where a sea breeze is expected to develop with onshore flow forecast later in the day. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – another great day with temperatures in the low-80s (except again at the coasts with sea breezes) and mostly sunny skies. Clouds on the increase late and overnight with lows again in the low-60s.

NAM (North American Model) output for 500 mb vorticity and heights on Sunday 8PM showing a pronounced upper low over James Bay in Canada with a trough extending into the Ohio Valley. This will provide upper level divergence and instability to spur storms on Sunday.

Sunday – a warm front is forecast to push through overnight into Sunday and set the stage for rain and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Temps probably topping out a touch cooler in the upper-70s with more clouds hanging around. Overnight lows around 60°F.

Monday – at this time, expecting the aforementioned cold front to sweep through the region before the day Monday. That should result in cooler highs in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

NYC Weather Update – May 28, 2019

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Temperatures cool off after a warm holiday weekend. A frontal boundary will linger in the area this week allowing multiple disturbances to move along it. This will result in multiple chances for rain but with generally mild temperatures except today. Looking into the weekend, it does appear that high pressure takes over and gives us a nice Saturday at the least.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, temperatures cool, in the upper-60s. Showers early should give way to a period of dry weather, however, stronger showers and thunderstorms could hit later this evening around 8PM ahead of an approaching low sliding along a warm front just to our south. We are just outside Storm Prediction Center’s slight risk area for severe thunderstorms, and these storms should weaken as they near the more stable marine layer, in particular if clouds hold and no sun peaks through. Overnight lows staying steady in the upper-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday

Wednesday – a cold front is forecast to push through and allow for some drying out on Wednesday with partly sunny skies. High temperatures should rise into the upper-70s. Dry weather doesn’t last because yet another warm front pushes through later in the evening with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Thursday – another impulse of low pressure and warm front moves through the area bringing continued chances for rain. High temperatures in the upper-70s under mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows again in the low-60s and with more chances for rain.

GFS model output for surface pressure, precipitation, 500 mb thickness at 6AM Friday

Friday – cold front sweeps through and allows for sunny skies to return, this should be a really nice day with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows about 60°F.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 24, 2019

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The long holiday weekend appears to be mainly dry, and even features a day that could make for a good beach getaway. We do have a chance for rain overnight Saturday into Sunday but this shouldn’t be a damper on anyone’s plans. Sunday’s shaping up to be the warmest day of the weekend although Memorial Day itself may end up being the nicest all around day.

Rest of today – breezy and sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. The strong pressure gradient between a departing surface low and a high pressure center moving east from the Great Lakes is what’s causing these breezy conditions. Winds should die down overnight as the high moves overhead and the pressure gradient relaxes. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Friday

Saturday – as the high pressure continues moving east, clouds will increase due to the influence of an advancing warm front. This frontal boundary may serve as the focus for some showers and thunderstorms overnight Saturday into Sunday. High temperatures Saturday expected to be in the low-70s due to increasing cloud cover. Overnight lows in low-60s.

GFS model output for surface pressure, precipitation, 500 mb thickness valid 4PM Sunday

Sunday – we’ll be in the warm sector this day. Clouds and rain are expected to subside early and allow for temperatures to warm into the mid-80s and possibly higher. This will be the best day of the weekend to hit the beach though it’s not a lock for sunny weather all day. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Monday (Memorial Day) – anticipating this will be the best day of the weekend with sunny skies and mild temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weather Update – May 21, 2019

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This week kicked off with high temperatures yesterday that were more typical of the mid-summer. Things have cooled off noticeably this morning in the wake of a cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region last night. The remainder of the week should see temperatures around normal for this time of year, with the next chance for rain Thursday. Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, it seems there could be some rain chances especially late Saturday into Sunday.

Rest of today – sunny conditions with high pressure in control today. Fresh northwesterly breezes calming down later in the afternoon. High temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – high pressure remains in place, yielding another great day with lots of sun and seasonable high temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the upper-50s as a warm front approaches from the southwest.

Thursday – chance for showers, on the light side developing ahead of this approaching warm front. High temperatures in the low-70s with partly sunny skies. Rain chances increase going into the overnight hours as the parent low of the warm front nears, lows in the low-60s.

GFS model output fro surface pressure, 500 mb temperature and height valid 10PM Thursday

Friday – mostly sunny behind Thursday’s quick-moving storm. High temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60°F

NYC Weekend Weather – May 17, 2019

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This weekend is shaping up to be similar to last weekend in some respects, with Saturday being a nearly ideal day with plenty of sun, while Sunday is cloudier with some chance for rain. The big difference is unlike last weekend, we’re not anticipating a coastal storm or record-breaking cold! In fact, we should see our first 80°F+ day in some time by Monday before a chance for showers and thunderstorms cools things off.

Rest of today – current visible satellite observations show clouds moving in from the west, so the sunny start to the day will give way to mostly cloudy conditions later. Temperatures will be mild with the influence of warm southwesterly winds, topping out in the mid-70s. Later in the evening, a cold front will push through, bringing a chance for scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Overnight lows expected in the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2PM today

Saturday – even though we’ll have a cold front push through, sinking air behind the cold front and downsloping winds from higher terrain in the north should keep things around average for this time of year in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows continue to be in the mid-50s.

NAM output for 500 mb height and vorticity, valid for 8AM Saturday. A noticeable reversal of the upper air pattern from earlier this week is visible with a deep longwave trough over the Western US, and ridging over the Eastern US. This will result in great weather for us tomorrow, while areas of the Plains downstream of the trough picture above see the potential for severe weather.

Sunday – warm front approaching from the south during the day Sunday will result in more clouds than sun, and perhaps a scattered rain shower. High temperatures still around average for this time of year in the low-70s. Overnight lows warm up into the low-60s as we enter the warm sector of the storm system approaching us from the west that’s expected to bring severe weather to parts of the Central US this weekend.

Monday – with the region forecast to be in the warm sector of the parent low shown below, and a prolonged period of southwesterly surface winds bringing warm air into the area, temperatures are expected to warm up into the low-80s. This day will have a summery feel, with some humidity to the air and a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Overnight lows should remain mild around 60°F.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Monday

NYC Mother’s Day Weekend Weather – May 10, 2019

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Mother’s Day weekend here in NYC unfortunately looks to be quite rainy. We start off with the potential for rain later today. Saturday is shaping up to be the sole dry day with high pressure briefly building before giving way to a prolonged period of wet weather Sunday and Monday. So, if you’re making any outdoor plans for mom, consider bumping them up to Saturday!

Rest of today – cloudy, with temperatures around 70°F. We will sit in the warm sector of an elongated low centered over western Quebec as a warm front has already passed overhead. This will allow plenty of mild, moist air to stream northward with southerly winds ahead of the trailing a cold front associated with this low. This cold front will serve as the trigger for some showers and thunderstorms later this evening as it swings through. Overnight lows behind this cold front in the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Friday

Saturday – high pressure briefly builds in during the day. This will give us the best weather of the weekend with mostly sunny conditions and seasonable high temperatures in the upper-60s. Ideal weather for any outdoor activities. This nice weather doesn’t last with clouds building into the overnight hours and low temperatures dipping to the low-50s

Sunday – another storm system approaches from the south. A warm front at the leading edge of this storm seems likely to stall out. This will bring a prolonged period of chances for showers, cloudy skies, and cooler temperatures with easterly onshore winds. High temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight lows quite cool in the upper-40s as rain chances continue.

GFS model output for 2PM Sunday

Monday – a coastal low forms along the frontal boundary mentioned above. At this time, it appears this coastal low tracks close enough to make Monday another rainy day with cool temperatures, highs in the mid-50s, 10-15°F below normal for this time of year. Overnight lows looking even colder than Sunday if prolonged rain and a northeasterly wind flow materializes with this coastal low, current forecasts pointing to the mid-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 3, 2019

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The unsettled weather pattern this week continues into the weekend. Rain is possible tonight into Saturday, then again overnight Saturday into most of the day Sunday. Entering next week, it appears we get a break from rainy weather, but looking ahead, another period of prolonged chances for rain could occur mid-week next week. Temperatures will alternate between below normal and around average, depending on whether there is rain in the forecast.

Rest of today – cloudy, with temperatures in the upper-50s. A warm front lingers to our south slowly moving north. Eventually, a cold front will push through overnight into Saturday. This could bring a brief period of rain, and maybe a thunderstorm. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – rain chances should end by late morning. High temperatures should be able to reach around 70°F despite cloudy skies. Another storm system will move in overnight going into Sunday. Rain chances will ramp up steadily after midnight. Moderate to heavy rain is possible. Temperatures overnight in the mid-50s.

North American Model (NAM) high resolution simulated radar for 11AM Sunday

Sunday – washout of a day as low pressure moves though. Plenty of moisture available for this system and that could lead to some heavier precipitation. Poor conditions for the Five Borough Bike Tour, with highs around 60°F, as a cool onshore easterly wind accompanies this storm. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Monday – nice rebound day with high temperatures reaching to around 70°F. Finally should see some sun with high pressure briefly building in the wake of Sunday’s storm and before the next frontal boundary to impact the area. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 22, 2019

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The slow-moving storm system that brought us heavy rain overnight last Friday into Saturday continues to linger off the coast of the Northeast, finally exiting by tomorrow. Rain chances will exist today, but give way to better conditions tomorrow. More rain is possible overnight into Wednesday, before drier weather works its way in on Thursday.

Rest of today – cloudy, with an increasing chance for showers in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 4:45 PM today

Tuesday – with this low finally exiting, we should see a sunny day with temperatures warming into the low-70s. The sunny weather doesn’t last, as clouds increase overnight and rain is possible. Lows in the mid-50s.

Wednesday – conditions should improve after the morning hours, when the cold front that produces the rain chances overnight into Wednesday moves offshore. High temperatures should rebound nicely into the upper-60s. Overnight lows will be cooler in the low-50s behind this cold front.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Thursday – high pressure should take over and result in a sunny day with high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows going into Friday in the low-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 2, 2019

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High pressure gives way to a be coastal storm that will sideswipe the area. Following this, we’ll see a brief warm up, but temperatures will cool off towards the end of the week. We have rain chances overnight into tomorrow and Friday night.

Rest of today – high temperatures around 50°F. Increasing clouds ahead of a coastal approaching from the south. Overnight, chance of rain with low temperatures around 40°F.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday, depicting a coastal storm passing us to the southeast.

Wednesday – winds increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. High temperatures warming into the low-60s be with clouds dissipating and winds shifting to the southwest. Overnight lows drop back into the low-40s behind the passage of a dry cold front. Winds will shift to a colder northwesterly direction. 

Thursday – cooler with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-50s. Low temperatures colder in the upper-30s. 

Friday – another low approaches from the southwest. High temperatures below average in the mid-40s, rain chances increase later in the day with the low pressure drawing closer. Rain chances continue into the overnight hours with lows in the low-40s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 29, 2018

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We will have a warm though not too sunny start to the weekend. A solid chance for rain hits Sunday with the passage of a cold front. After that, temperatures will drop to below normal levels again. Looking ahead into next week, there should be a dry start to the week but a coastal storm may impact the area mid-week. There’s some outside chances for snow with this storm.

Rest of today – cloudy, with some chance of light rain though most rain should remain over interior. With southwesterly flow, despite clouds we should still reach into the upper-50s to 60°F. A cold front approaching from the west is forecast to stall out and acquire semi-stationary characteristics. Thanks to the continued influence of high pressure off to our east, we should stay mostly dry today. Overnight lows should be warm, near 50ºF.

Saturday – the warmth continues, with high temperatures forecast to reach well into the upper-60s though clouds will still linger around with the stationary front to our west. Overnight lows will be similar to tonight around 50ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Sunday – the stalled frontal boundary finally picks up forward momentum and pushes through the area as a cold front. Ahead of it, temperatures will still be mild in the mid-50s. A line of showers is expected with this front during the day. Overnight lows behind this cold front will be considerably colder, in the low-30s.

Monday – dry, sunny weather, but with a chilly start to the day, temperatures are expected to only be in the upper-40s to near 50ºF, slightly below normal. Overnight lows are expected in the mid-30s.