This week’s weather features the prominent impact of a slow moving, strong area of high pressure over the region. That translates to calm, generally sunny conditions with a warm up towards the end of the week as the high slides east and we end up in a milder southwesterly flow on its western edge.
Rest of today – sunny but with cool northerly winds, we will remain below average with highs in the upper-40s and overnight lows in the low-30s
Wednesday – once again we have a cooling influence this time with northeast onshore winds that will keep temperatures below normal in the mid-40s with sunny conditions. Overnight lows again in the low-30s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday
Thursday – as the high pressure moves east of us, we see a shift in winds to the south. This should result in high temperatures right around average in the mid-50s. Should be comfortable spring weather for the Yankees home opener with a light wind blowing from right to left field. This is a welcome contrast from last year, when snow postponed the home opener! Overnight lows will be milder also in the mid-40s
Friday – the warm up continues with high temperatures kicking above normal in the low-60s. It appears the limiting factor for temperatures will be increasing clouds ahead of a cold front. Overnight lows in the upper-40s
A long duration Nor’easter slowly moves its way eastwards. Conditions improve during the second half of the weekend. A brief warmup to above average temperatures takes place. This doesn’t last, with another cold front passing through to start next week. Tomorrow, keep an eye out on the skies for a possible glimpse at the aurora borealis, typically not visible at these latitudes.
Rest of today – chance for rain shower diminishing as the center of a slow moving Nor’easter continues to progress northeast. High temperatures reaching around 50ºF. Winds will increase on the backside of this departing low overnight. Winds will shift towards the northwest as well, bringing in colder air and overnight lows in the mid-30s.
GOES East satellite loop of the storm system affecting the NortheastOcean Prediction Center surface analysis for the Atlantic Basin. A strong blocking high is inhibiting the forward progress of the Nor’easter impacting our area. This is leading to a long duration coastal flooding and wind event.
Saturday – decreasing clouds as the low above continues progressing northeast slowly. Winds will increase as this low continues to deepen and the pressure gradient builds between it and and area of high pressure further west. Steady winds in the 20-25 mph range with gusts as high as 40 mph are forecast. High temperatures will be a bit below normal as a result in the upper-40s. Overnight lows will be cold, in the mid-30s with clear skies.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday, still showing a tight pressure gradient between a high over the Ohio Valley and the departing Nor’easter
Sunday – temperatures rebound into the mid-50s as an area of high pressure builds and slides off to our southeast, and winds turn towards the southwest bringing in warmer air. Sunny skies – this will be the best day of the weekend.
Monday – another cold front approaches from the west and brings a possibility for rain. Temperatures ahead of this front should reach into the low-50s. Behind this, we’ll get another shot of cold air, with temperatures dropping overnight into the low-30s.
Northern Lights Possibly Visible from NYC
On Tuesday, The Space Weather Prediction Center (it exists!) detected a large Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with a potent solar flare. As a result, they have issued a moderate geomagnetic storm watch for Saturday, March 23. Of note, the belt where the charged particles from this CME would impact the Earth’s upper atmosphere and result in an aurora quite a bit further south than where the northern lights are typically visible. In fact, they may even be visible from NYC, although it may be hard to see them due to light pollution.
Much above average warmth last Friday resulted in a spectacular light show from passing thunderstorms. In the wake of this, temperatures have dropped into a below average range, considerably cooler than this weekend. There will be a warm up later in the week though, along with some rain chances.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with high pressure in control. High temperatures in the mid-40s, overnight lows dropping into the mid-30s.
Tuesday – not too much of a difference between these two days. High pressure remains in control. High temperatures maybe a little warmer in the upper-40s, overnight lows again in the mid-30s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday
Wednesday – as high pressure shifts eastward, we should see a shift in winds to the west, allowing temperatures to warm into the low-50s. Overnight lows around 40°F.
Thursday – chance for showers with a frontal boundary moving through. High temperatures in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies. Lows in the low-40s.
After a chilly start to March, things will take a turn towards much more seasonable weather this week. Still, temperatures will be slightly below average on several days. Precipitation chances don’t pop up until Friday when an approaching cold front should bring a warm up and then rain.
Rest of today – sunny, with a high near 50°F. Overnight lows around freezing.
Tuesday – a weak cold front passes through in the morning, but there will not be enough moisture for precipitation. High temperatures will be cooler than today, in the mid-40s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will be cooler around 30°F.
Wednesday – sunny skies and a high temperature again in the mid-40s. Clouds will be on the increase overnight as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Overnight lows will be a touch warmer in the upper-30s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM EDT Wednesday
Thursday – warmer but mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight lows expected to be in the mid-40s with the chance of rain increasing.
In lieu of an early week forecast this week, I’m opting to share some observations about weather I experienced in Mexico last week while on vacation. I stayed in Isla Mujeres, a small island located about 13 miles off the coast of Cancun. Temperatures were of course quite warm. It was also unusually windy for this time of year down there, though nothing quite like the windy weather NYC experienced today with some peak winds recorded at over 50 mph nearing 60 mph.
METAR READINGS FROM JFK and LGA showing peak winds of 56 mph and 58 mph respectively recorded at 12:04AM and 8:31AM respectively todaY
I’m only just getting adjusted back to cold temperatures, and am not looking forward to snow possibly falling Wednesday night and another storm bringing wintry precipitation Friday. On the bright side, we are now only about 3 weeks off from the vernal equinox and the start of spring!
On the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) – National Meterological Service of Mexico
Since I was going to be in Mexico, I started checking out the Mexican government’s weather service page. Check out the surface analysis below that’s overlaid on what looks like a GOES East image from last Thursday (02/21/2019).
Click to enlarge this surface analysis from the Mexican SMN
Unlike our own National Weather Service, the SMN numbers frontal systems that move through Mexico. Notice the stationary front in the center of the image is labeled as “Frente No. 38” (Front #38) and you can see “Frente Frio No. 40” (Cold Front #40) crossing from southern California into northern Baja California in the upper left corner of the image. They also number their winter storms. The “B” (representing a low pressure center) over Nevada is labeled as “Octava Tormenta Invernal” (Eighth Winter Storm). “Corriente en Chorro Polar” (polar jet stream), “Corriente en Chorro Subtropical” (subtropical jet stream) are familiar features to us, which we seen streaking across the northwest and central portions of Mexico respectively. A “Corriente de Bajo Nivel” (low-level jet) is seen flowing from the east towards the Yucatan. Here’s a translation of the text in the lower left panel:
Systems affecting Mexico The Eighth Winter Storm over the southwestern US combined with cold front #40 in northwestern Mexico will favor showers with some strong storms, very cold temperatures, and wind gusts over 60 km/h in the northwest and northern Republic, and also the potential for snow or sleet in mountainous areas of Baja California, Sonora, and Chihuahua, extending gradually towards Durango. Front #38 with stationary characteristics extends over the western Gulf of Mexico and will generate clouds with isolated rain in the eastern and northeastern parts of the country.
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional of mexico
Synotpic Conditions – the Tropical Big Picture
The consistent breezy south-southeasterly winds I felt on Isla Mujeres were tied to that low-level jet (LLJ) pictured above. This LLJ enhanced the general easterly trade winds in the area. This was a result of the influence of a high anchored over the Western Atlantic, and a low over northern Colombia pictured in the OPC surface analysis below (issued Friday 2/22 02:35Z) “funneling” the winds.
In this analysis of the Western Atlantic from NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center, you can see that a broad high pressure center was anchored near Bermuda. Meanwhile, a low sat over northern Colombia. The clockwise flow around the high and counterclockwise flow around the low in proximity to each other act to enhance the easterly trade winds found in the tropics.
A
sounding from Philip Goldson International Airport near Belize City
(the closest sounding station I could find to Cancun) showed clear
evidence of a well-mixed layer from the surface to just about 900 mb. It
felt like in Cancun, this mixed layer extended a bit further up into
the 850 mb level where the LLJ sat because the winds were stronger.
Sounding taken above Philip Goldson International Airport near Belize City at 7PM Feb. 20, 2019, showing a well-mixed boundary layer representative of the area around the Yucatan Peninsula during these few days
By
way of brief explanation, well-mixed layers like the one shown above
provide favorable conditions for faster moving winds aloft to transfer
their momemtum downwards, in this case all the way to the surface. It
shouldn’t be a surprise that a deep well-mixed layer also existed today
over NYC – enabling the strong winds aloft to mix down, leading to some
very strong winds and gusts.
Sounding from Upton, NY for at 7AM Feb. 25, 2019, showing a deep well-mixed layer down to the surface from around 800 mb with strong winds 35-50 knots through most of this layer
Aside
from the winds, the weather followed a pretty standard tropical pattern
with clouds building in the afternoon and isolated showers. Despite how
flat the Yucatan Peninusla is, it nevertheless provides at least some
small potential for lift and convergence for air flowing off the
Caribbean Sea. This is because there’s actually a significant difference
in frictional properties of land and water, which makes sense since the
surface of the ocean is considerably “smoother” than the corresponding
forested Yucatan. One other notable trait was that the base of rain
clouds in the area took on a distinctively blue hue, which I imagine was
a reflection of the characteristically blue waters of the Caribbean
Sea.
A mild start to this weekend will transition quickly to colder temperatures more typical of this the of year. A windy day in store on Saturday in the wake of a cold front bringing us rain today. cold temperatures remain in place into the beginning of next week. No more 60°F+ days in store for us!
Rest of today – rain tapering off by around lunchtime. Mild temperatures with highs in the mid-50s with clearing conditions. Once the cold front sweeps through, winds will pick up from west into the 15-20 mph range. This will advect cold air into the area and overnight lows are forecast in the mid-20s. By midnight, temperatures will be around the freezing mark.
Weather Prediction Center’s surface forecast for 7PM tonight
Saturday – a windy day on tap with much colder high temperatures in the mid-30s. Winds expected in the 15-20 mph range with strong gusts around 35 mph. Overnight lows again in the mid-20s.
Sunday – winds abate as the low responsible for the rain today moves further off. High temperatures in the mid-30s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight low around 30°F, with a small chance of snow showers.
Monday – increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system that could bring us some wintry weather Tuesday. High temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.
This week starts off quiet, and cold with sunny skies today. Tomorrow brings a mess of rain/snow mix, rain, then possibly ending with snow leading into Wednesday. A blast of Arctic air lies behind the storm system bringing this precipitation, with low temperatures plummeting into the single digits overnight into Thursday. The Arctic chill stay in place until the weekend.
Rest of today – sunny, with some scattered high clouds. Temperatures around freezing. Overnight lows in the upper-20s.
Tuesday – the timing of the next storm system to affect us, at this time, points to a period of rain/snow mix starting in the late morning Tuesday. A warm front should induce enough warm advection to raise temperatures into the low-40s. That will allow for a transition to all rain in the city until the overnight hours when temperatures are forecast to fall below freezing into the upper-20s. A period of all snow should follow.
Wednesday – periods of heavy snow squalls are possible before the storm finally clears out. At this time, forecasters are calling for about 1″ of snow accumulation starting Tuesday night for NYC. If the forecast trends colder, we could see some more snow, but no blockbuster amounts either way. High temperatures Wednesday should rise to around freezing. On the cold back side of the passing storm, Arctic air will swing into the region. Overnight lows are forecast to only be in the single digits going into Thursday morning.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Wednesday
Thursday – frigid day in store with Arctic high pressure in control. Sunny skies but temperatures only expected to reach into the mid-teens. Overnight lows into Friday will stay chilly, only around 10°F.
The dusting of snow we got last night into today is just a small preview of what lies ahead this weekend. A major storm, that first brought heavy rain to the west coast, has been tracking across the nation and will impact the region late Saturday through Sunday with potentially a mixed bag of everything from snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, urban street flooding, coastal flooding, and strong winds that could result in power outages and tree damage (esp. if ice accumulates). Behind this storm, the coldest air of the new year surges in, bringing a bitterly cold start to next week. I’ll post an in-depth forecast of the incoming winter storm tomorrow.
Rest of today – the veritable calm before the storm. High pressure briefly establishes itself behind the weaker disturbance that brought us light snow overnight. Skies slowly becoming partly cloudy. High temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows colder around 30°F.
Saturday – should start off as a decent day with partly cloudy skies. Cloud cover increases through the day, and snow starts to spread from southwest to northeast during the late afternoon hours. High temperatures in the mid-30s. Overnight lows right around freezing will critically impact how much snow accumulation we get before what is widely expected to be a transition over to wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, then finally bouts of heavy rain leading into Sunday. If a warmer scenario plays out, we’ll get less snow and ice, and more rain. Various forecast sources call for between 1-4″ of snow and sleet accumulations, with up to as much as 0.10″ of ice.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday. A real mixed bag of various precipitation types all along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Sunday – high temperatures will continue to play a pivotal role Sunday in determining precipitation type. Some forecast sources suggest colder high temperatures in the mid-30s, while others remain warmer, in the upper-30s to even 40°F. There is broad agreement that the day starts off with plain rain but then transitions back to wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and finally snow. The differences in high temperature will be pivotal to the timing of this transition, with a warmer scenario keeping things all rain longer. As the center of the low responsible for the storm moves off to the north and east, it will continue intensifying and the pressure gradient around it will increase quite dramatically. Robust northwest winds are expected to develop, rapidly advecting cold, Arctic air into the area. The intensity of this cold advection will govern how quickly temperatures start to plummet during the second half of Sunday. It would appear that temperatures will be well below freezing by the late afternoon hours. This prompts concerns for a flash freeze of any standing water or untreated surfaces, leading to dangerous travel conditions. Temperatures will continue dropping overnight Sunday, with overnight lows going into Monday only around 10°F. Overall, this forecast shapes up to be a slushy mess, with a layer of snow coated by ice and sleet, melted by rain, but then re-frozen with an additional light layer of sleet and ice before all is said and done.
Weather Prediction Center’s plot of ensemble forecast low tracks/positions. Note that there’s still decent uncertainty even at this stage approaching the storm. The pink cluster denotes storm center positions by 7AM Sunday. Though they seem closely clustered, even a shift of the storm track 25-50 miles north or south could result in big differences in terms of whether locations at the coast receive more snow and frozen precipitation (southerly track) versus more of a rain event (northerly track).
Monday (MLK Day) – if you have the day off, count yourself lucky, because this is shaping up to be a brutally cold day where temperatures topping out in the upper-teens despite ample sun. Continued windy conditions will produce wind chill values below zero. The bitter cold continues into Tuesday morning with overnight lows again in the low-teens.
We won’t have a white Christmas in NYC this year, but it will feel like winter. The weather this week is shaping up to be pretty average. Like last week, a notable warm up appears to be on the way for the end of the week, which will also be accompanied by rain.
Rest of today – light rain should be ending within the next hour or so in NYC. After that, expect mostly cloudy conditions this Christmas Eve with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Lows going into Christmas will be cold, around freezing.
Tuesday (Christmas Day) – decent day with increasing clouds as a cold front draws near but dissipates. High temperatures in the low-40s. Lows overnight will once again be around freezing.
Wednesday – high pressure will build in and provide for a mostly sunny day, with temperatures remaining in the low-40s. Cold overnight lows around 30°F.
Thursday – the high pressure center mentioned above continues to build, and is forecast to be quite strong at 1040 mb by Thursday. That’ll all but ensure sunny skies with high temperatures around 40°F.
The official start of winter hits at 5:23PM EST, though you’d be forgiven for thinking it were a spring day instead, with temperatures well above normal and a driving rainstorm to end the week. The storm tapers off rather quickly. Cold air wrapping around the exiting storm will drop temperatures right back into normal ranges for the rest of the weekend and going into the week of Christmas.
Rest of today – bouts of heavy rain, which have already induced flash flood and flood warnings, will continue through the early afternoon hours. There should be a lull in activity as the first cold front that’s been bringing this heavy rain exits east. More rain is possible with a secondary cold front set to pass through later this evening and tonight. Strong winds are set to continue throughout the day as two areas of low pressure responsible for this storm consolidate and continue to deepen (hence inducing a large pressure gradient). High temperatures likely have already occurred today in the low-60s, and temperatures will slowly drop into the upper-50s. Overnight lows should still be quite warm, in the upper-40s.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 3PM
Saturday – the first full day of winter will see a return to more seasonable temperatures with highs in the mid-40s under mostly cloudy skies. Clouds will be slowly dissipating as high pressure builds in behind the exiting storm. Overnight lows will get back into the mid-30s.
Weather Prediction Center forecast surface map for 7AM Saturday
Sunday – mostly sunny day with high temperatures in the low-40s and overnight lows into Monday in the mid-30s.
Monday – another mostly sunny day anticipated with a high in the low-40s.
