Tag Archives: high pressure

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 7, 2018

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Cooler temperatures are finally upon us after a very hot and humid week. However, the cooler weather also brings a prolonged period of cloudy conditions, with chances for showers each day this weekend. Rain chances continue into the beginning of next week with a storm system approaching. Long-term, we look towards the tropics, as Tropical Storm Florence continues to have the potential for bringing some impacts to the area.

Rest of today – overcast, with much cooler high temperatures in the mid-70s. Chances for showers, especially later in the day.

Saturday – cloudy with high temperatures remain cool in the low-mid 70s with northeasterly onshore flow behind a cold front draped west-east south of us. This front (which passed through yesterday) will become stationary. Multiple impulses of energy will run along this boundary and allow for continued slight chances of showers.

Sunday – yet another cool, cloudy day with chances for rain. High temperatures around 70°F.

Monday – the stationary front stalled out south of us will return north as a warm front. As this happens, chances for rain increase, along with temperatures rising back into the mid-upper 70s.

Will Tropical Storm Florence Impact the East Coast?

Tropical Storm Florence has been active over the eastern and central North Atlantic for over a week now. Within the last few days, Florence underwent a rapid intensification that brought it up to Category 3 status, making it the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Subsequently, it has weakened to a tropical storm under relentless strong shear. However, it is expected to reintensify into a major hurricane once shear subsides. Worrying trends in the track forecast for Florence continue to allow for the possibility of landfall on the East Coast, or at the very least, substantial coastal impacts like dangerous surf and beach erosion. However, the National Hurricane Center continues to note that there is considerable uncertainty to the track forecast for Florence, such that it is still too early to determine what effects it will have on the East Coast. This storm will warrant careful observation over the coming days and I will have subsequent updates on it.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 10, 2018

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Enjoy the pleasant weather today if you can, because conditions will deteriorate going into the weekend. Wet weather will impact the NYC region starting tonight, lingering well into early next week. Rain could be heavy at times, and flash flooding is a possibility. Temperatures during this time will be considerably cooler than this past week with the influence of clouds and rain. We will be stuck under the influence of multiple shortwaves moving through at the upper level during this time. Starting next week, forecast models suggest that a closed 500 mb low will form, then linger in the area due to strong downstream ridging (high pressure) over the western North Atlantic. This cut-off upper level low will provide for persistent unstable conditions conducive for multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. I will be off the next two weeks on vacation and will not be posting updates unless there’s severe weather forecast for the area.

Rest of today – increasing clouds as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest but stalls out and dissipates overnight. High temperatures in the upper-80s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase overnight.

Saturday – multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, starting early in the day, then again in the afternoon and evening hours. Much cooler with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures only in the mid-70s. The cold front that passed through yesterday will return north as a warm front. Ahead of this, winds will be easterly and onshore, bringing the cool, damp influence of the Atlantic over the area.

Sunday – warmer with high temperatures in the low-80s but still mostly cloudy. Chances for rain throughout the day as the frontal boundary above remains in the area.

Monday – yet another impulse of shortwave energy aloft brings a surface low towards the area, so rain chances persist with a shot for thunderstorms as well. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 30, 2018

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Yesterday and today have been a welcome relief from the recent spell of tropical humidity. However, the comfortable weather won’t last this week. A warm front will sweep through and bring us right back into an unsettled, tropical weather pattern. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms every day this week. Humidity will be back on just as last week.

Rest of today – cloudy, with high temperatures topping out in the low-80s then dropping to the mid-70s by end of the day.

Tuesday – as a warm front nears from the south, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. High temperatures will be capped in the low-80s due to southeasterly onshore flow off the Atlantic ahead of the warm front.

Wednesday – temperatures should be in the mid-upper 80s, depending on the timing of the warm front passing through. Chances for showers and thunderstorms yet again. Heavy downpours from slow moving storms could cause localized flooding. Dew points will increase into the low-70s resulting in an uncomfortably muggy day.

Thursday – behind the warm front, we’ll get into even warmer and more humid air due to the presence of a Bermuda High. A prefrontal trough associated with a cold front will approach the area and once again give us a chance for thunderstorms. High temperatures should be in the upper-80s.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 27, 2018

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Thunderstorms roll through later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. The cold front bringing these storms stalls out before finally pushing through Sunday. A welcome break from this muggy weather follows, with dew points finally dropping out of the upper-60s into more comfortable ranges. The break is short lived, as the cold front will return mid-week next week as a warm front, bringing another round of warm and humid weather with chances for rain.

Rest of today – hot and humid today with high temperatures approaching 90°F and plenty of moisture still lingering. Late in the day, clouds will increase as a cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a pre-frontal trough. Atmospheric dynamics favor some possibility for storms to develop damaging wind gusts. There will be modest instability with little convective inhibition by later in the day with plenty of solar heating and humidity in place. Wind shear, though weak in the lower layers of the atmosphere, increases substantially aloft, and so storms do have a chance to become strong. Any storm could bring about heavy rain and isolated minor flash flooding. The best timing of the onset of the rain appears to be between 7-9PM as of recent High Resolution Rapid Refresh model runs. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western part of the region (including parts of NYC) under a slight risk of severe weather. By the time the storms hit the city, given the current timing, they should be weakening due to day time heating ceasing.

Saturday – only slightly cooler with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Still quite muggy. Spot showers are possible due to the cold front lingering in the area.

Sunday – finally, we get a refreshing day off from the humidity with dew points dropping into the low-60s and high temperatures in the mid-80s with lots of sun. The cold front finally pushes through with high pressure behind it bringing cooler, drier Canadian air our way.

Monday – should be another comfortable day with high temperatures in the mid-80s and relatively less humid conditions.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 23, 2018

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Wet weather this weekend continues into much of this week as we settle into a pattern favoring rain chances every day. Tropical moisture remains firmly entrenched in the region due to an anomalously strong upper trough and deep layered southerly flow. A strong high pressure center over the western North Atlantic will block the progress of frontal boundaries until next weekend when we finally get a break from the wet weather.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, high temperatures in the low-80s. Chances for scattered showers throughout the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy, high temperatures again in the low-80s. Lower chances for rain than the rest of the week due to the high pressure mentioned above retrograding west. This should keep things largely dry.

Wednesday – best chance for sustained bouts of heavy rain as a cold front approaches from the west but stalls out and dissipates. High temperatures in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies again. Flash flooding could be a concern given the atmospheric water content and the southerly steering currents parallel to the frontal boundary, favoring training of storms hitting the same area repeatedly.

Thursday – yet another day with the chance for showers and thunderstorms, high temperatures in the mid-80s and mostly cloudy.

NYC Weekend Update – Jul 20, 2018

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Last weekend’s beautiful, sunny weather will be but a fleeting memory this weekend as a coastal storm hits the area late Saturday going into Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and even some severe weather are possible Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for isolated flash flooding. Unsettled weather continues into next week with a tropical weather pattern setting up providing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – a great start to the weekend, with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies.

Saturday – cool, with high temperatures only in the upper-70s due to the influence of easterly winds ahead of a warm front attached to the advancing coastal storm. Clouds increasing late in the day and rain chances picking up in the evening hours going into overnight. Chance for heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds (even an isolated tornado possible). Gusty east winds will make the overnight hours feel particularly cool and miserable.

Sunday – rain chances continue into the day and even Sunday night. Temperatures increase behind the passage of the warm front mentioned above and winds shifting to the south – high temperatures should be in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. All told, we could be looking at widespread rainfall totals of 1-3″ across the area.

Monday – showers likely again as temperatures remain in the mid-80s under mostly cloudy skies. A strong upper-level trough will be wedged between two areas of high pressure. The one off to our east over the western North Atlantic will continue to strengthen over the course of the week, blocking the eastward advance of this upper trough. This effectively will result in an extended period of southerly flow, with moist, tropical air coming our way. Multiple impulses of energy are expected to travel along this strong upper-level trough. Each one will bring with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. This pattern does not appear to break until next weekend, although it’s not as though each day will be a washout either.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 13, 2018

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Friday the 13th might be bad luck but not in terms of the weather this weekend. High pressure will only be briefly interrupted by the passage of a weak cold front late Saturday into Sunday. Not much in the way of rain expected with this front. Looking ahead, next Tuesday holds the best chance for appreciable rain. Temperatures will be on the warm side until late next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny and warm with highs in the upper-80s.

Saturday – mostly sunny then increasing clouds late as a cold front approaches. Highs around 90°F.

Sunday – slight chance for thunderstorms early, then partly sunny, highs in the upper-80s.

Monday – mostly sunny, highs in the upper-80s again.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 29, 2018

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Just as we get ready for the week of Independence Day, the heat really gets turned on. We anticipate the first heatwave of the summer with temperatures in excess of 90°F expected for the next 5 days. This will be an exceptional weekend for a beach getaway!

Rest of today – sunny, and hot, with high temperatures generally a touch or two above 90°F.

Saturday – heat increasing, sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Humidity also builds.

Sunday – hottest day of the weekend as robust south-southwesterly flow around a high pressure center to our south pumps lots of hot, humid air our way. High temperatures in the upper-90s.

Monday – still no relief, with high temperatures in the mid-90s and sunny skies.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 25, 2018

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This week starts off with a string of pleasant, dry conditions with Canadian high pressure in control. Temperatures will be a bit below normal due to the cool influence of this continental Canadian air mass. We get a chance for some rain mid-week, then temperature start warming up. Looking ahead, we could be seeing an extended period of 90°F+ temperatures starting the end of this week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, high temperatures around 80°F.

Tuesday – another great day with high temperatures just about 80°F and lots of sun.

Wednesday – increasing clouds as the next storm system approaches the region. High temperatures again about 80°F.

Thursday – overnight into Thursday, rain chances start to pick up as a warm front approaches the area from the southwest. This will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms, which will continue into Thursday. High temperatures will remain around the 80°F.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 22, 2018

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We got to enjoy one weekend last week where it didn’t rain at all. Unfortunately that won’t be the case this week with a storm passing through tomorrow. Temperatures will be cool with the influence of an onshore easterly wind before the passage of a warm front that will bring the chance for rain and thunderstorms.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with a high in the mid-70s.

Saturday – cloudy, with chances for rain and thunderstorms especially later in the day. The best chances for thunderstorms come with elevated convection late in the day and going into the overnight hours as a warm front approaches from the south. Temperatures will be cool in the mid-70s again.

Sunday – improving conditions with warmer temperatures in the warm sector after the passage of the warm front. Highs should reach into the mid-80s, possibly higher depending how much sun we get.

Monday – Canadian high pressure returns in the wake of this weekend’s storm and gives us sunny weather with mild temperatures in the low-80s.